Punto4President

There is an old very true saying that before you can decide what to do now to impact the future, you have to know where you are now in space and time. I think that before the Twins can decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline, or to do both in some measure, you have to have a sober, clearheaded view of what talent we have now and how we think it will perform in 2027 and 2028. I think we have a pretty good consensus on the 2026 roster. The ceiling is roughly 85 wins, a Wild Car berth or Division title if everyone else falters, maybe win one playoff round, and then a pretty quick exit. The floor is we spiral downward either now or in August and wind up at 72 – 75 wins, with more questions than answers going forward. The most likely result is somewhere in between those two.
So the big question is where are we likely to be in '27 and '28 if we do little or nothing at the Trade Deadline, or do just a couple low wattage trades for relief pitchers who aren't going to be with us past this year. I think that's where many of us disagree and why we have such divergent thoughts for this year's Trade Deadline. I thought I would try to get at that answer by dividing our current talent at the MLB and AAA level into 7 categories - (1) guys who are now stars and should continue to be stars through either '27 or '28, (2) average or above average MLB starters through '28, (3) guys who have a 50% chance or more of being at least above average MLB starters in 2027 or by 2028, (4) guys and could be contributing roster players in 2027 and/or 2028 but probably not as starters, rotation pieces, or in the top five of the bullpen, or who need to change position to be a contributing guy, (5) guys who are now ready to make MLB debuts, have small sample sizes at the MLB level, or will be ready by 2027 or 2028 and look like they deserve an extended run at the MLB level with a 50% or better chance of success, (6) guys on the AA or AAA level who are wildcards, could be anywhere from stars to failures but deserve a shot in the next 2.5 years, and (7) guys who are either really young or below AA and who look like future MLB starters likely more than two years away but could surprise. With categories (5) - (7), I think it's a safe assumption that none will be immediate stars but the guys I've tried to list are those I think have at least an outside shot at being average or better MLB starters in' 27 or' 28. In each case, I note the position for all players, which I think is important for the pitchers as well as the hitters. For example, I think Bailey Ober will be an average or better #4 starter, but he isn't an average or better #3 or higher MLB starter. I also eliminated older players who I think just won't be around next year or they year after or, if they are, would always be in imminent danger of being replaced like Taylor Rogers and Tommy Nance. I didn't go below the AA level because below that is a complete crapshoot although I did include Tait because I think he is more than a crapshoot. I did not include any of this year's draftees for that same reason.

I think you have to start here before you can make the buy or sell decision. A sober reflection of what you currently have helps you decide whether you need to blow it up, trade the veterans for the best prospects you can get and play for 2029 later, whether there's a real chance to compete in 27 and 2028 if you get the right prospects or even just stand relatively pat, or whether you're somewhere in between. Here's my thinking:
(1) Current Stars Likely to Remain Stars through 2027 and/or 2028 - Byron Buxton (CF, may be moving to LF by 2028) , Pablo Lopez (currently only 2027 before contract expires, #1/#2 Starter), Joe Ryan (same, #2 Starter). That's it. The shortness of this list may be a big part of the problem.
(2) Average or Better MLB Starters - Luke Keaschall (RF/LF), Brooks Lee (3B), Kody Clemens (2B), Trevor Laranch (LHOF/DH, but only in a platoon), Victor Caratini ('27 only), Taj Bradley (#3 or maybe even #2 starter), Bailey Ober (#4/#5 starter), Yolendrys Gomez (late inning reliever), Andrew Morris (late inning reliever), Cole Sands (middle reliever).
(3) Players With a 50% or Better Chance to be Average or Better MLB Starters, but no sure thing - Royce Lewis (1B), Mick Abel (#4/#5 starter), Connor Prielipp (#4 or better starter). 
(4) Contributing Roster Players but Not Starters - Ryan Kreidler (UTL IF), Austin Martin (4th OF), Zebby Martin (as a RP could move up a category, but not as a starting pitcher), Alex Jackson (2nd C but not a starter).
(5) Players With Potential That Deserve a Shot at with 50% chance or Better of Success - Walker Jenkins (OF), Kaelen Culpepper (SS/3B/2B), Kendry Rojas (RP/SP), Mike Paredes (RP), Henry Mendez (OF, not until '28), Marek Houston (SS, not until '28).
(6) Guys Who Deserve a Shot But Are Complete Wildcards - Emmanuel Rodriguez (OF, wildcard mostly due to age and injury concerns), Alan Roden (OF), Gabriel Gonzalez (OF, wildcard because of his age), CJ Culpepper (RP), Travis Adams (RP), Kody Funderburk (RP), Marco Raya (RP), John Klein (RP), Ryan Gallagher (RP), Woo Suk Go (RP), Ben Ross (SS/UTL), Ricardo Olivar (2nd C), Kalai'i Rosario (OF).
(7) Players With Real Potential More Than 2 Years Away Who Could Surprise- Riley Quick (SP/RP), Kadim Diaw (C/OF, age), Brandon Winknour (OF), Eduardo Tate (C).
So I look at that and it causes me to look at 2027 and 2028 with cautious but tempered optimism. I think this is a classic Twins situation; we have about two thirds of a competitive MLB team. We have one star in the field and two in the starting rotation. We have two more starting pitchers who are quality MLB starters lower in the rotation. We have average or better MLB starters at 2B, 3B, and the OF corners, plus at Catcher but only for one more season. We have two, maybe three good relief pitchers, and everybody else is a wildcard.  We have a strong utility infielder but right now he has to be the starting SS, and it looks like we might have a quality fourth OF. It looks like we may have reinforcements at SS and in the OF on the way. We have some rotation depth but not a lot, and we don't have a C with a short timeline. The bullpen is wide open, and a complete crapshoot. If we have a surplus from which to trade prospects it is clearly in the OF and maybe at Shortstop.
All of this leads me to think that we buy and sell at the deadline. We sell Jeffers, much as I would like to keep him, because his contract is going to be up and we should be able to get potentially quality, near MLB ready relief or starting pitching prospects for him. We trade Larnach but only if we can get a young, controllable relief pitcher that we think can be in the top five or six in the bullpen by 2027 at the latest. We hold onto Ryan unless we get a huge haul and we shop Bell but is unlikely we can get much for him so he probably stays. The one blockbuster move I would consider is trading some guys in categories 5 – 7 other than Jenkins in a package for a controllable established starting pitcher hopefully plus a relief pitcher, like Reid Demers or José Soriano plus Sam Bachman of the Angels. I'm sure there's others to target. I think there's more here than justifies a complete tear down and rebuild but I don't think we can just stand pat.
Thanks if anybody waded through this overly long analysis. What do you guys think?

The Twins just acquired a relief pitcher from the Tigers. His name is . . . wait for it .. Woo-Suk Go. I am not making that up. Pronounced ooh, suk go. Again, I am not making that up.
Go is a 27 year old RH who came over in 2024 and struggled with the Padres and Marlins. He has rediscovered his form this year in the minors after the Tigers signed him and pitched well in AA and AAA. He has an assignment clause in his contract so the Twins have to put him on the 40 man, not sure if he has to go on the 26 man roster. We have an open 40 man spot so no corresponding move necessary. 95 MPH fastball, touches 98, with a good curve at 78-83 MPH. Late inning power stuff, dominant reliver in the KBO. His weakness? In a huge surprise, sometimes has control issues. If he's coming to the Twins 26 man, likely to replace Lawyerson or Funderburk. I say Lawyerson. Funderburk is LH so he stays until Rojas is ready to take his place.    
What do you think? Is Woo Suk Go the solution? If he is, name the problem...

In an interesting and perhaps ironic twist, Toronto just designated SWR for assignment. Since going to Toronto, SWR has pitched 10 innings in three appearances, 2 3 inning appearances and one 4 inning appearance. His line is 4 hits, 7 walks, and 5 strikeouts. Whip of 1.10, FIP of 4.20. Middle/long relief only, no saves or save opportunities. He did finish one game so that suggests he was the mop up guy in a blowout.
So here's the question - Do you pick SWR up on waivers to return to Minnesota? We won't get a chance to get him as a free agent because Toronto can assign him to AAA; he doesn't have previous DFAs or enough time to refuse the assignment. To get him, we either have to trade probably using the ubiquitous "cash considerations" or claim him on waivers.
I say YES! Let's get him back and see if we can fix him in the bullpen. We make space by waving Taylor Rogers, putting him on the IL, or allowing him to retire with a nice press conference and sendoff ceremony. He is cooked. SWR was it good pitcher as recently as last year. This all assumes he's willing to go into the Bullpen. The recent DFA's by both the Twins and the Blue Jays does make me wonder if there is an attitude issue like "I'm a starter, not a reliever", but I have no information to support that. I say we grab him.

The Reds DFA'd former Twin Christian Encarnacion-Strand (aka CES) for assignment today, His overall MLB stats are not great, but not horrible, and he is a RH hitting 1B. Probably as good as or better than Wagaman, and with more power potential. What does everyone think about bringing him back? It looks like he has one option remaining for 2026 and is in AAA now., although it's a little unclear. He's available on waivers and would need a 40 man spot if called up but not now. I say why not? Wagaman wasn't that impressive in ST and isn't hitting in AAA, so I say bring CES back. 
 

Well, this season's over except for the crying (like after last night), so a young(ish) man's thoughts turn to next season. What should that Opening Day roster look like? Here's my take. Couple of rules - you have to use guys we now have or, if you put in a trade or FA placeholder you have to identify who will be traded and you have to assume that the FA will be $8m a year or less. No signing Pete Alonso or William Contreras to fill the 1B or C hole. That's just a fantasy. Also, take out the idea that guys will be in AAA for a few weeks to suppress service time for this exercise or, if you think that's likely, your roster should be as of May 15 to take that out. 
My philosophy is to push young players quickly now while we're in a rebuild (and that's what this is). I completely reject the idea of signing guys like Harrison Bader, Jesse Winker, or Kiner-Falefa to fill holes to raise our floor so we're mediocre rather than bad. This team isn't a contender looking to patch a few holes; this is a speeded up rebuild. Now is the time to push the chips we have in and see what we got. For example, I love the idea of Walter Jenkins starting next year in LF. Let's see if he's ready in ST and if he shows well, which I think he will, play him now. My thought of the "push ahead to build quickly 2026 roster":
OF - Buxton, Jenkins, Wallner, Martin, Fedko/Gonzalez/Rodriguez/Outman - I think it will be Outman to have the true backup CF but I don't think he lasts long. I'd give Fedko the first shot, then Rodriguez (if he's ever healthy), then Gonzalez. 
IF - Keaschall (1B), Lee (SS), Lewis (3B), K Culpepper (2B), Clemens (1B/2B/OF), Eeles/Holland (UTL). Same deal with Culpepper, if he shows in ST, he's the starting 2B with Eeles, Clemens, Martin, or Holland as plan B. Keaschall fills the 1B hole; he's stretched at 2B and is a bat first guy. 
C - Jeffers, Vasquez (yup, the team ERA since he got hurt shows his value) or vet glove first FA (say Austin Hedges, not Danny Jansen). This is the one area where I value glove and handling the staff/calling the game over bat because of the pitching staff changes. We also don't really have anyone else ready other than maaaybe Noah Cardenas and the FA list is either really expensive or really bad. 
SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley. Zebby and Taj get the first crack with the AAA guys listed below up next. Too much talent there to give up or move either of them to the bullpen yet. Both have #2/3 starter potential and Zebby could be a #1 in time. 
RP - Topa, Sands, Hatch, Funderburk, Festa, SWR, Coulombe, Ohl/Lawyerson/FA/RP acquired by trading Larnach. Festa and Topa start as co-closers, Festa is closer by mid-season. On the FA front, I would definitely sign Coulombe and would shoot for our old friends Tyler Rogers and Zack Littel. I would also be talking to Jacob Junis and Kyle Finnegan. Devin Williams might be an interesting reclamation project after pitching great for Milwaukee and flaming our in New York if we can get him for $5-8M a year on a 1 year deal.  
Gone (or in AAA as Depth) - Larnach, Julien, Tonkin, Kriske, Cabrera, Gaspar, and Fitzgerald; Outman unless he hits or maybe right away if Emma comes up. 
AAA rotation - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Morris, Raya. These guys plus Adams, Ohl, and Lewis are the AAA bullpen depth as well; Mike Peredes and Cade Bragg move up to AAA and could be callup candidates depending on how they do. No more throwing guys like Genesis Cabrera, Erasmo Ramirez, or Darren McCaughen into the bullpen.    
This team is more athletic, faster, but inexperienced and the bullpen is a question mark. Rotation is a real strength without injury and has real depth. On offense, run wild like they are now. Buxton and Keaschall should have 20+ stolen bases, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Jenkins, and Culpepper should have at least 10. We're going to need to manufacture runs and now you have the pieces to do that. Help the bullpen and starters with a number 2 catcher like Vasquez or Hedges; Jeffers is the DH when he doesn't catch. Put Culpeper at 2B because Lee has come alive since becoming the starting SS. Really try hard to trade Larnach (plus prospect(s) if necessary) for an established average or better reliever or sign one as a FA. Hatch and SWR are 2 plus innings at a time guys. They cover the 4 or 5 inning starts and start on short notice when necessary. No more inning at a time in the middle innings. Bring back Coulombe and/or Taylor Rogers as the second/third LH. Topa, Sands, Festa, Funderburk, Coulombe, and the FA handle the late innings - bring your antacids. 
This team could win 85-90 games; it could win 70-75 games. Wide variation but more fun to watch and better positioned to get better as the year goes on. What do you think?

We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals.
What Do We Need?
I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field.
Who Should We Try In-House?
I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view:
Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107  PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever.
I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO.
Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening.
How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. 
What To Do and When
I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market,  or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early.
In sum, here are the moves to make:
Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer)
Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL
David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL
I would make the move with  Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful.
What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

Face it folks:  your 2024 Minnesota Twins are not good.

As of the time of this writing, they are 17-2 vs CHW, COL, LAA, OAK.  These are 4 of the 5 worst teams in baseball.  They are 25-33 against everyone else.

In MLB, they are 10th in runs scored, but 22nd in ERA.

Thank you ownership for taking a WS contending team and intentionally making them worse.
Thank you for taking the TV money and not reinvesting it back in the team.
Thank you for not allowing the FO to go out and getting a quality SP or two to replace the ones that left.
Thank you for not ensuring your fans get to watch their team on television this year by building in a solid out clause.

The articles of who the Twins should trade for need to stop.  No trade is coming that will increase payroll or move a top 10 prospect.

As a lifelong Twins fan, I am utterly disgusted with this year.  You should be too.

Now that spring training is quickly coming upon us. I'd like to ask the question, will the Twins get their promised postseason SP? There hasn't been any inkling that they were focusing on anyone. Jesus Luzardo was my favorite but looks like that's he's out of the question, if ever FO was willing to make the necessary sacrifice. The rentals Glasnow & Burns are gone if FO was ever willing to pay the price (I wouldn't either). Do we have a shot at Cease (CWS)? Interdivisional trade will up the already high ante for us, I doubt it. So we're shot, right?  
I'd like to throw out a last year's suggestion. Everyone needs a 2nd chance, Trevor Bauer. He was cleared of any wrongdoing, He has made peace with Rob Manfred, he has been humbled & has matured. Now IMO isn't a great clubhouse person, but IMO he's not a clubhouse wrecker. & he has shown a willingness to work with young pitchers & he's motivated.
The best part of this is his price tag. He's asking minimal salary with incentives. Something that we can afford. IMO MN is a great place for him to start a comeback. Or would you rather wing it with what we have?