Hawkeye Bean Counter

This has been a potential ideal partner. I like Brooks Lee, and think he can be a good player and possibly a 1 to 2 time all star. However the likelihood of him being more than that are slim. If you can get a very strong pitcher while we still have immense depth in the infield you do it. You may need to send a little more with him. The question is, is that the player the Mariners want. I can't judge that. However the pool of teams willing to give up elite hitting prospects for pitching is likely pretty slim as well.

It doesn't even fit with the Twins MO. They are not looking for 1 year stop gaps, and trading away a very good prospect to get that stopgap. Alonso is a good power hitter, but not perfect, he is the type of player the Twins like, and maybe the Twins would do it to get a draft pick after a qualifying offer. In the grand scheme of things its just not likely. The Twins don't have a ton of cash to throw around and they still need at least 1 more starting pitcher. We have likely enough hitters in house, its still moving them around, and possibly finding 1 to 2 hitters that can fit in well. The primary focus this offseason should be on finding a #2 to pair with Pablo.

DJL, I agree. Someone is going to have to play a different position, whether 1st base or outfield, if you keep them all. Or you will have to trade 1 or keep Lee in the minors unless there is an injury. The only other options are to move Julien to DH or 1st even though he seems to be settling in quite nicely into second base.

This is where the rubber meets the road, for a Julien or a Lee they are going to have to give a better pitcher than Woo, Miller, or Hancock. Miller and Woo have similar comps to Julien or Lee but personally I think they will want a better pitcher than that level. My guess is they ultimately look for more of a reclamation project.

I fully agree with you. I think Lee is at peak value and is a viable trade chip. Unless the power ticks up significantly which it could he is a .360 OBP .830 ish OPS type player. That is an above average MLB player at a premium position as a SS or 3rd baseman. Jenkins has the potential to be elite. The ceiling is much much higher. The thing is, Winokur showed he may have a similar high ceiling. I am very curious to watch how Jenkins and Winokur perform this year and also watch the A and high A coaches have fun with their new pitchers from last years draft. Beyond that, Lee is a very high floor, with a lower ceiling which makes him a rather safe pick if another team has holes to fill. Will have to wait and see.

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed. They are the Miami Marlins of last year. They need playable bats now. https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values The calculator isn't always right. That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez. However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value. Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator. Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27. I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations. Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him. It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well. Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee. In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.

Currently here is my gut feel on how things play out. I think salaries will end up in the 130 to 135 range. 1. There is already smoke on Kiermaier. I do think the Twins will take the chance on him. A 2 year 13-14 million contract seems reasonable. This will likely be our headline deal of the year and will fill in with couple other smaller contracts. 2. One of Polanco and/or Kepler will be traded in the offseason. Either to facility a another trade or give us a prospect or player in a position of need. Kepler has had interest from the Yankees and I could see that interest ramping up or other teams. Red Sox would be an option for Polanco. They could also be use in a trade for a starter which I discuss below. 3. We will trade for a starter. The question is how good of a starter. Will it be a #2 starter and cost significant prospects, which the Twins will have well replenished their prospects with the 2023 draft and draft capital in the 2024 draft - or will they go for a cheaper reclamation project. Personally I think they wade into the #2 #3 type of pitcher market. Milwaukee has already stated they are open for business as well as it appears Seattle is as well. Seattle has excess pitching and Seattle has lots of holes for hitting. Here is my trade proposal Logan Gilbert for Kepler and Lee Trade simulator Twins 73.9 Mariners 57 The trade seems slightly lopsided but honestly I think Gilberts value in the simulator is a tad high. I also think Rookies that are eligible for draft compensation if they are rookie of the year have increased value. The outfield then consists of Wallner, Kiermaier, (Buxton, Larnach, Martin) pick up bargain level fielder for additional depth.

Not a major surprise but he did turn down the offer. Most likely looking like the Twins will get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

This may sound odd, but of the players Brooks Lee may offer you the best return. He is rated highly. Now he does offer better defense than Julien, however Julien has outperformed him at every level on an OBP and OPS standard and they have been on very similar tracks. Unless someone were to want to way overpay for Julien, those 2 likely offer your best trade value. I see Lee as a good player in MLB but never elite, above average defense good contact hitter. Lee, Julien and Jenkins are the organizations most valuable assets, along with Pablo Lopez (but you wouldn't want to trade him). You have several other depth pieces for infield, Polanco, Severino, Keaschall, Schobel. You have to assume we will be trade a couple of our prospects. The other player who likely offers a very good return is Soto and likely even higher than Raya. Similar to a situation like the Reds, if you have a team that was very high on him, they would be willing to give a cost controlled #2 pitcher for a couple years in exchange for the possibility at a high end starter.

I understand the idea. However, I am part of other sports forums. Most have a set up where there is a premium board and premium articles. You can't read any of the premium articles unless a member and the discussion occurs in the premium forum. This set up is just weird, I begin reading an article, realize I have wasted my time, and then I can try to have a discussion with a 1/3 of the information available or move on.

I hate the caretaker stuff. Whats the point, don't put it as a main article if everyone cannot read what the point of the article is. Have a caretake section and move on.

Ok so you have the following Lopez, Traded pitcher, Ryan, Paddack, Ober backups, Winder, a likely AAA signee with a little more oomph than a Keuchel or Aaron Sanchez. Someone who can pitch some innings early on if needed. (Twins gain some respect with the Keuchel more in MLB is my guess). Festa, Dobnak. Maybe SWR surprises. I guess I feel like there are enough options. Not the level of Varland but close. Honestly if we came to a break glass situation, you could just begin to lengthen Varland back out.

Mike I am not so sure. It really comes down to their opinion of him as a starter vs a reliever. Honestly I think plays much better as a reliever than starter like many here. If that is the case, they may think some of the other pitchers in the minors are similar (so redundant) and or they may be planning to trade for a #2. I think this really comes down to their strategy and do they want a top heavy starting pitching staff again, at the expense of some prospects or young players. I think we will really be increasing the minors depth significantly with last years draft class, add in this upcoming draft which should have 4 picks in the top 80 picks and it again should be a deep draft, without the elite ceiling of Jenkins. I think they trade for a #2 personally and possibly with some ammo from a Polanco or Kepler trade or just purely from prospects. Someone who is likely viewed as a low #2 or #3 that they think they can improve with some tweaking or an added pitch. Or they go heavy and go for a low #1, #2 pitcher in Logan Gilbert from Seattle who has been dangled for a while.

My guess is we end in the $135 to $140 range. Ownership and Management get more visibility on the television and streaming income. I actually could see in a year or two the combined amount is more than the recent television rights. It is why Bally's wanted the streaming rights so badly. I am curious how many people would purchase to stream. I think in my family alone you would 3-4 if it was a reasonable price. You will no longer get the fee from all cable subscribers but those that are interested will be willing to pay up. You will still then have the Television contract still available. I think even with ownership and management a 20% cut is too large. So what is the most likely outcome, we will be trading some good players and/or prospects. I could easily see the Yankees being interested in Kepler. Polanco would entice many teams. Farmer will get sent out for a prospect slightly better than the one we sent out. Of the prospects and young players, that means 1 or more of Julien, Brooks, Soto, Raya, Rodriguez and either young players and prospects are likely to get traded. Julien Brooks and Soto will likely have the highest value, so if we are going after a good player with control those are the likely candidates. I think Jenkins and Lewis will be off limits. Will have to wait and see.

November 14th.

Severino and Camargo added to the 40 man. Now the other 2 big ones left are Austin Martin and Emmanuael Rodriguez. There are a few others, but those are the most likely 4.

He is low cost option. Not a terrible option, but he has as good of a shot at being a turkey as he does being a really good pitcher next year. He has lost all confidence, and I believe a lot of spin in the last couple years along a dip in velocity. He needs a remake. Maybe the twins can do that adding an additional pitch and increasing the spin rates again. If they want to take a shot fine, but likely not someone I would be targeting.

Priellip dropping is meaningless to me. Due to injury a player shouldn't drop. Now it will come down to performance next year. If he performs well, he is one of our top options as a #1 or #2 SP and fyi he is a left hander. Similar to Paddack, to see what the true value is we need patience. I am cautiously optimistic he pans out. I agree with the other 2 on the list.

The major issue would be April and first weeks of May and end of Sept. Most of those channels have an overflow channel as well. Thus could do both at once. The station could decide what to air on the main station.

Last year Correa was not overpaid, he had a 5.5 WAR - if you go with the 10 million per a WAR then you are at 55 million, this year he had a 1.4 WAR. In total about 7 war or 70 mil. That is also ignoring he had foot issues hindering his ability both in the field and at the plate all year. His performance in the playoffs was exceptional. We don't need a miraculous jump, we just need him to get back to normal. So no offense but it appears you are a bit of hater 😉

I think you are completely missing the point. The interesting decision for the Twins is are they just satisfied with the draft compensation or are they going to try to to sign Gray. As to the contract the Twins would be getting it isn't a discount. In general, Gray hasn't been view as a top end starter and is not going to get the value of the stats that he provided this year. That isn't the Twins fault. That the Twins will be giving a qualifying offer means another team is not only giving salary, they are also losing a draft pick. Ultimately it gives the Twins more leverage and creates a bit of discount built into the contract. I am curious if his contract is more in the 60 mil range as projected or closer to the 100 mil based on his stats and performance.

Josh Donaldson and Correa were the top end free agents to sign with the Twins. Yes he would be the first high level pitcher to sign. If I am the Twins I don't see how if he is willing to sign you don't do a 3 year contract for $63-$66 million with an option year. His stats he should be worth 80 to 100 mil or more, but he is not a fire thrower and there is massive expectation of regression and future decline. This is going to be the most interesting decisions the Twins make this year in my opinion.

Odds are he still walks. More money than what the Twins are willing to offer is the likely scenario. However if he is willing to leave money on the table to stay with the Twins, they may find a deal for both parties. He is a high end #2 pitcher. Even with some regression his style of pitching likely does well over the next couple of years. It is all about location and using a variety of pitches to keep the hitter guessing.

Graterol and Maeda deal is pretty close to completed and fairly even. So the question is Lopez 4 years, Gray 3-4 years/first round draft pick, Ryan and might as well throw in Julien is better than Petty Steer, CES, Hajjar and Arraez 2 years. The answer is an emphatic yes as of now. Yes the Mahle trade turned out badly and I thought it was an overpay from the start. In the same context, Julien as a prospect was behind Arraez, Steer and CES. Performance wise Julien looks to have better long term potential than Steer and CES. We have a glut of infielders, trades are necessary and you won't win on all of them. However the Twins have done pretty well on their bigger trades.

Petty was having arm soreness to start the year. I think the diagnosis was generally the pre diagnosis of an injured UCL. Now He came back and the arm was healthy. With any young arm the concern is injury, yes he looks good for a 20 year old. His fastball (sinker) has dialed back quite a bit averaging 91 to 95 and tops at 97, The curveball is his best pitch and has the possibility of being a plus pitch. The change up is still a work in progress. He had a cup of coffee in AA, I wouldn't consider the 2 starts to be evidence of anything yet. Honestly I know he is rising up the Reds board a bit, but I just don't see a dominant top line starter unless the velocity picks back up. That is close to Joe Ryan territory (fyi Joe had a 1.42 ERA in A+ ball compared to Petty's 1.95 ERA this year). Its not to say he can't be a very good or effective starter for the Reds but the odds of him becoming a front line starter are slimmer now with the decrease in velocity. Sonny in 2 years has given us 7.8 WAR. 3 years of Joe Ryan has netted us 3.8. Basically Petty has to be a better than Joe Ryan throughout 6 years to make it an even trade, let alone trying to calculate the time value and what will occur with Sonny. The Twins don't look back at all from this trade. as stated earlier its a win/win. You got 2 years of elite pitching. You then have the ability to potentially resign him to a decent deal or receive a compensatory pick and possibly pick up another high level pitching prospect.