Hashim

Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
 

Now that we've won, time to start thinking about how we line up the starters for the ALDS. Games 1 and 2 are Saturday and Sunday in Houston, 3 and 4 are Tuesday and Wednesday in MN, and game 5 Friday in Houston. Lopez is able to go Sunday on 4 days rest, Gray not until Tuesday.  Ryan would be next man up but hasn't pitched well lately and got bombed when he started in Houston on May 30. I think Ober is a better bet on the road, so is Maeda. Here's what I would do:
Saturday - Ober
Sunday - Lopez
Tuesday - Gray
Wednesday - Ryan/Maeda
Friday Lopez
Ober joins roster instead of Paddack or Funderburk (I say drop Paddack for Ober). Gives you Lopez twice, Gray in a possible elimination game, and gives us a better chance on Saturday with Ober instead of Ryan. Ryan pitches at home where he's much better. Thoughts? 
 

OK, so the obvious... or at least INITIAL knee jerk reaction is NO!!  BUT... lets take a deeper look at the affordability and the functionality of Ohtani on the Twins.
First off the affordability.  Ohtani is incredibly affordable at ANY price. Ohtani is the unique player that almost pays for himself.  The increased revenue he brings to ANY team will offset a good chunk, if not all, of his salary.   Secondly the Twins can have some decent salaries coming of the books.
Using 2022 salaries 
Sonny Gray is a FA at basically $13M
Joey Gallo's $11M will be gone
Tyler Mahle and his $7.5M should be gone,
Maeda is a Fa at $3M
Other possibilities... Max Kepler (has he played his way into the $10M team option in the 2nd half???  maybe, but lets assume we move on so his $8.5 equivalent is gone) Polanco's 2024 option will not vest so that is another $7.5M, With the number of young IF in the system does this make Farmer and his $5.5M could be gone. Michael Taylor has been worth every penny but is a FA clearing $4.5M, and will Pagan be worth bringing back?? He has been hit and miss, but for the purposes of this discussion lets assume he is gone and his $3.5M is cleared.
That is the potential of $64M coming off the books.  There will obviously be some costs associated with replacing these guys, but we have young guys ready to take their places... Julien can take the place of Polanco, Wallner can replace Kepler, lets pray Buxton can play CF next year then he replaces Taylor, if not then we can go after a young defensive prospect. Gallo can be replaced by any number os players on the cheap. I am about to throw up in my mouth here, but lets say that Chris Paddack is able to replace Maeda,  and Pagan is easily replaceable.
This means almost all holes are filled from  within. at little to no additional costs. (would still need a top pitcher to replace Gray). Which should leave a good $50M+ available to come in at same payroll as 2022.
Ohtani was set to CRUSH ALL records contract wise. will the potential TJ (2nd one by the way) lower this number?  I think it will a bit, he is still an MVP offensively alone, but part of his potential historic contract would be that he is also a potential Cy Young every year..  If you say a perennial offensive MVP would command Aaron Judge money, then that is $35-40M  per year.  a perennial Cy Young candidate can command $35-40M per year (Cole, Verlander, Scherzer).  Can you simply combine them into one player and add them together for a $70-80M per year number?  some seem to think you can, especially since he also provides additional roster flexibility. lets assume a 15-20% discount off of the top end $80 combined AAV. That is still $60-68M AAV. Assuming a 10 year deal that is about a 10 year lets say $650M overall deal.  Believe it or not some say that is very low. Now lets say with a potentially lost year due to TJ and subtract out $65M, but still keep it a 10 year deal, that is a 10 year $585M contract.  and then lets just say we sweeten it by $15M to incentivize him ot play in MN vs a west coast to an even $600M.
The two questions are...  Would he take a 10 year $600M deal?  and if so should the Twins offer it? even knowing year 1 could be completely wiped out?
The Twins CAN afford it, given the young players who look like they may actually stick this time offsetting the big contract for Ohtani, in Wallner, Lewis, Julien.  AND he will actualyl generate significant additional revenues for the team, to help offset the costs.

Career against left handed pitchers  BA - .262; OPB - .328; SLG - .449; OPS - .777.  This year has been worse as expected. He can play 1B, OF and DH.  Mancini's fielding is not as good as Gallo's but he would be an extremely low cost, RH hitter. Mancini, a survivor of colon cancer, was one of the first to reach out to Liam Hendricks, when Hendricks was diagnosed with cancer. A classy move.