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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Burdi's receiving instruction from coaches working at the highest level. Why must we so easily conclude the coaches are at fault when a player struggles? Why would some succeed and others struggle if it was a coaching problem? It's quite conceivable that something appeared to be broken and that they're fixing it, and that Burdi is struggling, perhaps mentally and emotionally more than mechanically, to adjust. Burdi lost control of his emotions and was tossed from his last game. Is that an indication perhaps of a player struggling with himself, or is this also on the coaches? If Burdi adjusts and succeeds, will the Twins still have been wrong in drafting him so high? Glen Perkins struggled too. Were the Twins wrong with him?
  2. bird
    Now now now...let's not change it from late summer to the fall!
  3. bird
    Are you implying that the Twins are utilizing hope and positivity as their strategy? The positive outlook is the result of the strategy, not the strategy itself. We can criticize individual moves with credibility, but we can't be credible in suggesting they have a hope and a prayer thing going on here. You're a sophisticated fan, and you haven't missed the many positive steps they've taken in this rebuild. The Twins are not ignoring their weaknesses. They're addressing them, albeit imperfectly. We may not like what they do, but let's have some balance here. Might you be the one doing the ignoring?
  4. bird
    OK, Ryan's off the hook on the "sincerity" issue and on the "stupid expectations" issue. Now, if it was my team, the first thing I'd do is sit Dave down, tell him to shut his pie hole and leave baseball talk to the baseball people. My second task would be to call the executive search firm to start a search for a new president. Dave was sincere, sadly. But if you put an ounce of credibility into something he said about baseball, it's your own damn fault.
  5. bird
    I can certainly see how you could think this if the only players that come to mind for you are those five players.
  6. bird
    There is also a risk that FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus win projections for the Twins (and others) will be off in both 2015 and 2016. Is there not some precedence for their projections to occasionally be off? It's certainly debatable, but it's not at all illogical to think that the Twins and their record could be better in 2016.
  7. bird
    I'm pretty sure 2015 was the first year out of the last few that Ryan explicitly said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. The vast majority of fans were well aware that Ryan's expectations were lower in 2011-2014 because of his consistent forthright reminders to us that the rebuild would involve no shortcuts. So isn't it unfair to repeatedly say or imply that he told us he actually expected them to be playing meaningful late summer games in those previous years?
  8. bird
    I'd suggest that we know very little about his effort and are simply wishing his priorities lined up with yours a bit more, Chief. We can question his priorities without casting dispersion on his work ethic. That said, he probabley views the 2AM guys as impetuous creatures who are confusing activity with results. Results matter, but one person might think that results are more easily attainable and worse than the next. Hence, two different assessments of the same perceived amount of effort and the same actual results. Now, when it comes to this particular deadline, we agree that the results at first blush appear to be dismal.
  9. bird
    Is not a few games over .500 winning? And what are you implying by using the term "trying"? Criticize his decisions for sure, including his decisions to hold fast, but can we please avoid hinting that there's some kind of effort issue? Ryan said he expected the team to play meaningful games late in the season. Some people, yourself included, said he was not being forthright in saying that, but we've now discovered he was sincere, right? Your question might be rhetorical, mike, but can't we derive at least a modicum of satisfaction from the fact that they're in a place that 90% of us, again yourself included, thought they would not be? And isn't it a fairly logical extension to think that, if they can be .500 or so in 2015 without a full season of contributions from a ton of guys (Santana, Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Santana, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and several others), that they can win even more games in 2016?
  10. bird
    Loosey, I believe Ryan did not even scout our latest first-rounder, which speaks volumes about how he is managing things.
  11. bird
    We're not entitled to a winning team. We're entitled to voice our opinions and vote with our wallets and at the voting booth, so complain away, but don't tell us Ryan has some obligation to us that doesn't exist. OTOH, if Ryan and the Twins were smarter about the PR ramifications of their decisions, this trade deadline wouldn't happen. As for judging the GM, people are now pointing out that Ryan shouldn't get credit for the good results we're starting to see from the farm. The irony is that some of the same people were scathingly critical of him when the cupboard was bare. Five dozen people are involved in scouting and development decisions and execution, so he gets only partial ( AND EQUAL!!) blame and credit for the results of the talent pipeline. But he should be fully judged on ALL his decisions, including the ones to NOT act, and unfortunately, we don't really have all the facts to make a fully informed assessment of his performance. And it would be a vacuous assessment in any event because of the lack of meaningful comparison to his peer group. We might know more if the writers would probe more. I'm giving him an "F" on his latest assignment. I'm disappointed in him, but he didn't owe me anything. And who knows, I might be wrong about it.
  12. bird
    Over the years, more often than not but with numerous exceptions, I've been one of the minority "agreeing" with Ryan's decisions to stand pat. Standing pat is counterintuitive and therefore can be disagreeable on the surface, but it is often the right choice in the long run, especially when it means avoiding disastrous contracts, etc. Like Mauer's. This deadline is, for me, an indefensible display of inaction on the part of Ryan for precisely the reasons our pal Mr. Buhr has succinctly pointed out. Where are the questions from the beat writers? Why isn't Ryan being pressed by Neal, Miller, Berardo et al? The only possible defense I could see Ryan use, honestly (I detest people's accusations that he's deceitful), is that when all was said and done, they (he) decided their internal options were "better" given the asking prices. Even if that's what Ryan's rationale was, I'd find it to be terribly flawed and an indication of what I personally believe is his biggest weakness, which is his confounding and frustrating aversion to risk. (But let's not question his courage please, as this trait is a cognitive one, not an emotional state).
  13. bird
    I have no idea at all. But based on the scouting reports on each of them, I think it would be a real stretch to think they could be inserted as 7-8 inning guys and have more success than, say, Presley or Tonkin, who have not been great options so far for varying reasons. Why would you want to take a chance that any of these four guys will be the answer as an alternative to Boyer and Fien as we compete for a postseason berth? If you're not going to go outside for a potential solution, sure, sound the cattle call and parade Duffey, Tonkin, Achter, and the rest of them out there. Just keep the parade going, like they've been doing all season. It might work out just fine.
  14. bird
    Maybe the word "dominate" is inaccurate and obscures the point, which is that every one of these guys has had periods of success in AAA, and for various reasons they have all failed to become viable high-leverage options for the big club. I put both Meyer and Oliveros in that category despite how few innings they threw, because they were colossal disappointments when they did get their chances. So, is Duffey any more likely than Tonkin or Presley to perform well as a 7-8 inning guy? I'm skeptical. If they want a shut-down guy, they have to go find him and probably overpay big time.
  15. bird
    Trouble is, that's a big if. We've seen quite a few of these guys dominate AAA and then struggle up here. Tonkin comes immediately to mind, but we saw it with Oliveros, Presley, Thompson, Meyer, Thielbar, Darnell...not sure if Duffey is in a different class than any of those guys.
  16. bird
    The real stubbornness might be in thinking Fien, Boyer et al are going to return to their previous levels of success, and that this will be good enough. Fortunately, we're hearing reports that this is not the thinking, but we'll see. The real dilemma is that none of these practically interchangeable pitchers- Duffey, Fien, Achter, Boyer, Oliveros, Thompson, Presley, O'Rourke, Duensing, Thielbar, Graham, May, Meyer, Rogers, Darnell, Tonkin- is adequate as a shutdown guy, a guy with sufficient command and control to consistently get you a key strikeout in late-inning situations. Ryan needs to go outside the system for that right now. He's got a dozen internal candidates to choose from and they're all sub-optimal choices.
  17. bird
    It's the coaching. But when Achter comes in, they bring in the GOOD coaches.
  18. bird
    Didn't virtually every team pass on Paul Goldschmidt 7 or 8 times, including Arizona? I'm inclined to think the pick was largely serendipitous and that Paul Goldschmidt had the most to do with his own successful development. Similarly, the Dozier pick by the Twins might be described as matter of some good fortune.
  19. bird
    In real life, saving for the future often makes sense. In pro sports, it's folly. Dang it Chief. I got this backwards.
  20. bird
    Yeah, you're probably right. Which means I'm not. I hate that.
  21. bird
    Okay. You're probably right. That would make me wrong. Dang it.
  22. bird
    I'd always be a seller at the deadline to any buyer dumb and desperate enough to overpay for my surplus. In 2015, our only true surpluses are #4-5-6 starters and a collection of rather mediocre, interchangeable MLB and AAA relievers. Trouble is, none of these players is going to appeal to a club looking for that one piece to get them another couple of wins. But I'd sure try to sell someone on Pelfrey as that guy. It just isn't practical to think we can buy a player or two that will greatly enhance our playoff chances, IMO. Even a decent backup catcher or 7th inning guy better than Pressly won't do enough. If we're going to win the wild card, it'll be on the backs of the players we have, and even then, we're likely to be one and done in the playoffs when we're relying on so many young guys to carry the load. Dangle 'em all, but reel 'em back in unless the offer is stupid good.
  23. bird
    Yeah, I agree with this. Before the current crappy system was put in place, the separators were twofold: cash and scouting. For years, Carl Pohlad refused to spend and the Twins were not effective internationally. Finally, they decided to spend AND had an edge in scouting and relationships over most clubs, and unfortunately for them, the current system was put in place. This system evens the playing field in terms of spending, and to a lesser extent but still materially, in terms of scouting. So now, the most important separator is cheating. Sad.
  24. bird
    I pretty much agree that the $1M guys become that, basically, because teams are in competition for their services. But let's not pretend that the international marketplace is clean and orderly. A lot happens behind the scenes involving relationships and deals between player "agents" and team scouts. It's extremely likely, because of the fuzziness of things, that the Twins liked Polanco, for example, much better than they liked half the prospects on BA's top 30 list. BA's list should be viewed with a whole quarry of salt IMO. How many of the guys from BA's top 30 from 2011 have ever been on BA's Top 100 prospect list COMPARED to international signees that were NOT considered to be top 30 guys? These signing bonuses don't reflect the prospect's true status very clearly.
  25. bird
    First off, if there was "equal distribution" among teams, each would have signed one 'top 30" international guy each year. In this regard, the Twins haven't cheated us recently (Javier, Diaz, Minier, Sano, etc.) although the real test is the results. Any one who questions whether the Twins are competing for international talent effectively just needs to look objectively at the pipeline. Scouting is the separator, not cash.
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