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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    I think you are right to an extent, but the good news is we're starting to get some eyeball reports from credible sources. I've been following the stuff written by followers of the minor leagues for decades now, and have adopted this truism: a great scouting report overrules a bad statistical year far more often than the opposite event. I would've discounted the excitement about Palacios based strictly on numbers, and discount any critical evaluation of guys like Nick Gordon based on a shallow evaluation of a few rookie and low A ball numbers, especially because, in Gordon's case, they aren't too shabby upon closer review.
  2. bird
    Molitor will make the decision about who starts, not Ryan. Molitor isn't going to concede the starting catching position to Murphy in February. He will award it to him April. Hence, the statement to Bollinger that he shared on Twitter. It means nothing. I'm assuming the Twins believe Murphy is the better catcher right now and just needs the opportunity to start. I don't believe they went out into the marketplace to acquire a backup catcher to friggin' Suzuki. Time will tell if they're right. But I'm right immediately as always. Allen and Molitor won't worry about Murphy adjusting to and getting to know the pitchers. He's got time to do that well enough during the spring. I believe one of the FPS's (Foolproof Prediction Systems), ZIPS or UNZIPS or something maybe, said that Murphy will be more productive in 2016 than Hicks, so you can take that to your bookie.
  3. bird
    I don't think there's much of consensus about Murphy around here. The least flattering characterization I can recall is that he's maybe an average backup, the most flattering I recall is league-average starter. Regardless, I personally believe the decision about which will be the starter will be made by Molitor and his staff, not by Ryan. I believe the decision will be rational and stands a great chance of being the correct one. My bet is that it will be Murphy. All talk about Suzuki getting the call over Murphy solely because of the supposed veteran fetish is specious to me, although I get how and why this myth is perpetuated. And I just don't think giving Murphy the nod because Ryan is worried about what we'll think about it enters the equation in any way shape or form. The better catcher will start, the other will be the backup, period, IMO.
  4. bird
    Yes, it was possibly a fine objective. Certainly not non-sensical.
  5. bird
    I think that's a very reasonable bet, Chief. But still, I might take the other side of the bet. Given the number of guys with a very real chance to emerge like May and Duffey did last year: Meyer, Burdi, Pressly, Chargois, Reed, Melotakis, Tonkin, etc. But I'm with the crowd that thinks it was a poor decision for Ryan to take my side of the bet. He should have brought a hotshot LHR in via trade or FA.
  6. bird
    You aren't redundant if you're parked in AAA (Vargas?) or cut after a revealing spring training (Quentin?). There's room on this roster for Mauer, Sano, Park, and Arcia if all four are worthy. If on is injured or disappointing, the question of redundancy probably goes away entirely. If someone produces in the middle of the order and enhances the production of the batters in front of and behind him, he's a fit.
  7. bird
    I'm trying to figure out what's non-sensical about having the objective of providing protection to Sano in the middle of the order with a potent right-handed bat. We can reasonably wonder if they accomplished the goal, but what makes this objective so non-sensical? Especially when the guy might help Molitor sit Mauer against tough lefties, or sit him more often if he's struggling.
  8. bird
    Jim Pohlad: "Terry, don't improve the team under any circumstances. I want to keep the money in my pocket, but don't tell Winston."
  9. bird
    If anybody knows, I'd be curious about what Kiley plus others "reported" and Sickles "mentioned" about whether or not the Twins have decided or are at least contemplating non-compliance with the quota agreement on international spending. Specifically, I'd want to know if they had actual conversations on the topic with the Twins. If it's simply speculation on their part, that's not worth much. Sure wish our own writers would tackle the subject head-on with the Twins.
  10. bird
    Not really, my friend. You're paying attention to a few statistics, and then you're drawing your own conclusion based on that. Others are paying more attention to the facts. Which are the reports from much more expert eyes than any of us possess.
  11. bird
    Agreed, Duensing is a low bar, Abad is minimally better most likely, the better of two evils if in fact they have to resort to Abad and he provides less than his career .736 OPS and we want to consider Duensing as the only "alternative".. I just disagree with the premise that health is all Abad needs to make the roster. If they don't "fix" him, or if Rogers or someone else is judged by Allen and Molitor to be the better BP option, then Abad gets cut. I'm not as optimistic about Rogers, and don't necessarily see another candidate having a clear talent edge (Darnell, O'Rourke?) among lefty candidates. My original pushback is to this goofy notion that, even if it appears (to the Twins, not to thrylos or any of the rest of us) that Abad is going to be worse than Duensing dollars to donuts, he still makes the roster. You know, because of how stupid they are, right?
  12. bird
    Regardless of all this, if Abad makes the roster, he will be better than Duensing was in 2015 IMO.
  13. bird
    I can envision these particular facts supporting different conclusions based on different assumptions. My underlying assumption is that, in 2016, BOTH teams have to rely on their #7,8,9 guys for closer to 20ish starts, as the Twins had to in 2015 when we factor in Ervin the Cheater. This is not incredibly unlikely to happen at all. It might actually be quite likely, I don't know. As you point out, Chicago had to hand off 9 starts to a #7 or so guy in 2015. I'm sure someone can come to the rescue and tell us more about average rotation attrition beyond #6. And still, while I understand the other side of the case, I would personally take Berrios as my #6 and Nolasco, May, and say, Dean/Darnell (Meyer and Jay out of the equation) as my #7,8,9 guys over Fulmer, Beck, and Carroll or whomever. Remember, unless I miscounted, Latos, Johnson, and Danks are slotted as the # 4,5,6 guys. It is this more pronounced injury scenario I would dread more as a Sox fan than I do as a Twins fan, and of course especially dread were one of my front-end guys to lose 16 starts. In an environment where we talk about moves that cost the Twins 2 wins on paper and therefore a playoff spot all the time, I think quality rotation depth might be crucial and it favors the Twins over both Chicago and Detroit. I personally have conceded the top spots in the division to Cleveland and KC.
  14. bird
    I doubt Abad will make the roster if he isn't better than Duensing was last year, don't you?
  15. bird
    I really like Fulmer's prospects. The point I'm emphasizing when looking at the two team's starting pitching options has to do with my personal "hunch" that each team will need about 9 starters over the course of the season. Which probably means the Sox would be forced to rely on him. Assuming that, and assuming that Tyler Jay and perhaps Fulmer won't quite be ready to make a positive MLB contribution in 2016, the Twins hold a depth advantage. Whereas Fulmer might be the Sox' #7 option, Tyler Jay would probably be about the Twin's 10th option. Because of my "hunch", I view that extra depth as having more importance.
  16. bird
    Sorry I wasn't clear. I wasn't drawing a comparison, but merely attempting to counter your statement that if Latos were a Twin, there would be people on TD acting as if he were the second coming of Cy Young, and that people on TD are currently characterizing Latos as , in your words, expendable garbage. I just don't buy that, and would hate to think you were taking a veiled poke at anyone. I think the comparisons between the Sox and Twins rotations has been pretty reasonable and fair, regardless of which rotation the argument favors.
  17. bird
    He's about the same height and weight as Adam Brett Walker. Gee, if those two could just put on about 20-30 pounds, we'd have a decent right fielder to replace that overweight plodder Sano.
  18. bird
    Park was a need. A stated need. Disagree with that, but Ryan was clear about it going in to the winter. And disagree about whether Park meets the need too.
  19. bird
    Okay, I can buy this. So, had they signed Bastardo, they would've gotten an A from jimmer?
  20. bird
    If you want to hand out a D grade specifically based on external moves made during the off-season, fine. I don't, but maybe I'm not as prescient as others who are convinced about what we're going to get from Murphy and Park, and how terrible the BP is going to be. That said, the criticism about the Twins stating that relief pitching was a priority and then doing so little to address it is valid. However. Please don't try to argue that the ONLY means of ensuring improvement is via off-season transactions. Give the decision-makers at least a modicum of credit for the decisions to stay the course, or to NOT take an action. Give them at least SOME benefit of the doubt periodically. If you expect a full seson of Sano to improve the team, for example, give them a little credit for God's sake. Don't cloud the argument up. They can get a poor grade for off-season transactions and simultaneously get a better grade for positioning the team for improvement in 2016. We can still have good discussions about whether they improved the team enough, whether they lost ground to the competition, whether specific decisions are good ones, etc.
  21. bird
    You're the one making a comparison between 2016 and 2011, so don't change the discussion to some nebulous statement about what someone boasted or claimed in 2011. There were plenty of us on record back then saying we were concerned about rotation depth, myself included. The situation in 2011 just isn't a good comparison to 2016. They have decent backup this year. They didn't in 2011, and if someone claims differently, they're wrong. You've lost me on this particular criticism. I'm not sure specifically what results from 2015 you find worthy of consideration nd which results you think should be ignored. I'm genuinely curious about what your recommendations would be for correcting the rotation. I criticized Ryan regarding the lack of depth in 2011, and I am giving him credit for avoiding the same mistake in 2016. What should he have done differently?
  22. bird
    Yeah, good thing he strung all those years together to mask how inaccurate the system was year to year. The system lacks integrity, and so do some of its defenders.
  23. bird
    with no backup, unlike 2016
  24. bird
    I'm not glad they did. I would've loved to see a quality LHR, but I'm not all up in arms about it because I think there's a good possibility they have enough firepower in-house to keep the BP from being a deficiency. I was pissed last season about the BP a lot more than I am now, but maybe I'm smoking some bad stuff here. Smells good though.
  25. bird
    Okay, then RF. We upgraded RF. You assume offensively only. Others may prefer to wait and see. Murphy is a starter and a two-way upgrade. Sano improves the lineup and RF for a full season. Park is an adequate replacement at DH for Sano. Rosario proved himself, Arcia looks rejuvenated this spring, Buxton will have the light bulb go on like he has in the past, Mauer will be a tad better, we kept Plouffe instead of trading him for relief help as some had suggested.... Now, I have no clue if all of these things will come to pass, but I'd bet good money it's closer to reality than how you positioned your points about Rosario's low OPB, Park as a falloff at DH, Sano as a defensive bust, Murphy as nothing more than just another backup catcher....
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