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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    Read the bottom of the barrel for ST stats Among those with ERAs over 6 this spring: Roy Haladay Dan Haren James Shields Doug Fister Just more proof that SP stats mean very little.
  2. cmathewson
    Now we're playing the game of who we passed on in recent drafts? Really? I like questioning the GM and all, but I hope we can take their decisions in context. There are 29 other GMs out there with as much or more resources to find, draft and sign talent. They're all out there 360 days a year doing their jobs. Just like in the game, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. When you lose, you tip your cap to the guy who wins and you live to play another day. GMs can't bat 1.000 any more than players can. So you look at who's using their available resources the best. The last couple of years notwithstanding, Ryan has done a pretty fair job of using his available resources. And you can hardly blame him for the last couple of years, which have more to do with his predecessor's bad decisions than his own. There are four players left from the 2011 team that Bill Smith built. That says something. It also is interesting to note that the Smith years were marked with being over budget consistently. This team is markedly better than the 2011 team, which cost $35 million more. More proof that merely spending money is not a recipe for success in this game.
  3. cmathewson
    Yes. With Arcia almost ready, it makes more sense to trade Morneau at the break than Willingham. He's pretty well cost controlled and he fits Target Field like a glove (as a DH). The only way they hang onto Morneau, IMHO, is if they surprise everyone and are in contention. With the draft compensation change, it makes almost no sense to retain him unless they are in contention.
  4. cmathewson
    1% chance he ever pitches again. I love Johan and have very fond memories of him as a Twin. But boy did the Mets ever get hosed. What was the cost per win on that contract? $2,978,260. Cost per inning? $191,340. Also, I have to wonder about the wisdom of letting him throw 130 pitches to get his no-no. After that game, he was a shell of his former self. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the start of the re-tear. That is one expensive no hitter. Lastly, I'm not crying for Johan. He got paid, and then some. The fact that he can't pitch anymore is the ultimate first-world problem.
  5. cmathewson
    The issue with Marcum was health. He only pitched 126 innings last year. Lots of scouts were unsure if he was going to come back from it. That's why he was one of the last free agents to sign. The Twins weren't the only team to be concerned about it. You might think it odd that the Twins signed Pelfrey in light of this. But they had seen him throw off a mound several times before making the decision, while Marcum was unable to.
  6. cmathewson
    Reading between the lines, I think Ryan is working on it. It's not just the numbers. According to thylos, he topped out at 83 on the gun when he watched him. I'm concerned that he's hurt or something.
  7. cmathewson
    He is not saying stats don't apply. He's saying he relies more on his scouts than on stats. It hasn't always worked out for him. But it has worked out for him more often than not. And I am not going to sit here and say "only look at numbers," simply because that's the only info I have available to me. Take Marcum. The Twins are known not to have offered him a contract, despite his numbers. Why? Because they had scouts who said he was injured late last year and probably not going to come back form this year. So far, it looks like they are right. Yet people continue to argue that he's better than Pelfrey. I highly doubt it.
  8. cmathewson
    There is no one link. My claim is based on a collection of rumors from MLBTradeRumors, Rosenthal and others. The Twins take the high road and never divulge when they offer a guy a contract that he ultimately turns down. Sometimes the player divulges it. Liriano, for example, said the Twins offered him a competitive deal and he chose the Pirates instead because he wanted to go the NL. The McCarthy thing came from Rosenthal. I doubt I have anything that can satisfy the skeptics on this site. Here's the thing, though. Why does everybody assume that his only offers were to Correia and Pelfrey? I am as disappointed as anybody here in the signings. But I seem to be the only one who acknowledges that A. There weren't many good guys on the market and B. The other 29 teams were bidding on them.
  9. cmathewson
    Two reasons: 1. Because, by my reckoning, they have a pretty good chance to win next year. This year is iffy. Maybe they'll surprise some people, but you don't bet your whole payroll gap on it. Next year, they'll have Gibson and Meyer and maturing talent elsewhere. They'll have fewer holes to fill, which can be filled with the resources he'll have. 2. There will be much more talent available in free agency next year as there was this year. So he might actually not get outbid for that front-line starter. Also, he'll have more talent to trade, if he should decide to go that route. In short, it will be easier for him to build a winning team next year. This could be his last shot before he packs it in. I think he'll go for it.
  10. cmathewson
    This is what I don't understand. He had perhaps $20 million that he didn't spend. Who should he have spent it on? The free agent market is not like going to an auto dealership and picking out just the right car. There were very few options with which to spend his money. And it's an auction in which you can get outbid pretty easily. He chose not to spend it on Grienke or Sanchez, which hardly anyone was complaining about at the time considering their price tags. After that, it got really thin. He supposedly made a half a dozen offers and lost out on most of them because guys don't like to pitch for last-place teams. So I'm asking you, whom do you think he should have spent our money on?
  11. cmathewson
    I'm in the extreme minority, I guess. I think the Twins have hit rock bottom on payroll. I think they'll sign or acquire a front-line pitcher and keep Morneau for 2014 and beyond. I think they'll go back up to around $110 in payroll next year.
  12. cmathewson
    I think you can make a case for his career average, .843. If he stays healthy, I would be disappointed if he didn't hit that. The risk with him is health. By all accounts, he's healthier than he's been since the 2010 collision.
  13. cmathewson
    I'm sorry. Did I forget to say "I think Hicks is better than Span right now" and "I predict he will have a better season than Span this year". My bad. I thought that was implied.
  14. cmathewson
    Denard Span was no great shakes offensively. He's just a little above average. His career OPS+ is 103. The last three years, he's had one year above 100. Defensively, he's also about average, with slightly above average range and a below average arm. On the bases, he's below average. Though he has a good stealing percentage, he led the league in getting picked of four of the last five years. I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that Hicks will be an above average hitter this year, even throwing out spring training results, and exclusively focusing on his AA results. Relative to Span, he'll have the same or better patience, a slightly lower contact rate, and a much higher slugging percentage. Defensively, he's well above average in both range and arm, trending towards elite. On the bases, he's slightly above average. Though his base stealing is about what Span's has been, he won't get picked off quite so much. I'm not in the least bit shy in saying that Hicks is better than Span right now. And he should improve as the season goes along and he learns the pitchers.
  15. cmathewson
    I'm reminded of how we lost Hunter and Santana by trading Castillo and bringing up Casilla at the deadline. Both players thought Ryan was giving up on the season. Both players were team leaders who turned from positive to negative influences on clubhouse and their team overnight. Both players said they would leave as soon as they could, repeatedly and publically. If they want to have a chance to keep Morneau, they'll bring the guys who won jobs in Spring Training north. In this case, the competition wasn't close. Hicks did things in the field this spring that we haven't seen around here since Hunter was in his prime. And his hitting so far surpassed expectations that it would be seen as a grave injustice to the whole team if he was sent back for marginal financial benefits. We're not expecting Mike Trout. But Hicks is better than Span right now, and will only get better as he matures. Mastoianni is not as good as Span and never will be. In short, Hicks gives us a chance to get off to a good start. Mastro, not so much. If we don't get off to a good start, our hopes of retaining Morneau will dwindle, and we'll be forced to trade him midseason. That's the kind of problem no GM wants to have.
  16. cmathewson
    I don't think he's using it as an excuse. It's just a fact. He made several competitive offers. Only two of the guys to whom he offered contracts chose to sign with the Twins. Liriano said he wanted a change of scenery. McCarthy didn't want to sign here for the reasons I mentioned. Baker and Garza chose the Cubs for reasons that aren't entirely clear. There might have been others, but those are the only ones I know about. Point is, he doesn't have complete control over who signs with his team. All he can do is make competitive offers and hope that the player will want to come here enough to sign. If they do, that's a good start.
  17. cmathewson
    I don't think it always takes overpayment to get players to sign with a team that has lost 190 games in the last two years, and about which the pundits give no hope of improvement. But it frequently does. Ryan likes to sign with guys who want to come here on competitive offers. If it is just about money, he's not really that interested. The paradigm would be Willingham, who welcomed the opportunity to be part of the solution, despite how horrible the team was in 2011. He signed for less than his market value, according to several pundits. That's a sign that he is more interested in playing for a good organization than getting the absolute maximum dollars he could.
  18. cmathewson
    I agree with this. Then I have to question the wisdom of making offers that blow the rest of the competition away. There are reasons guys get offered dollars and years within a certain ballpark. It's because that's what they're worth on the market. If you're paying substantially higher rates than market value, you're overpaying. I'm not against overpaying in cases like this year, where we had a big budget surplus and a lot of needs. I guess that's where I question the GM for not blowing McCarthy or some other "pretty darn good pitcher" away. Rumor has it, TR made a competitive offer, but McCarthy wanted to pitch in the southwestern part of the country and in the NL. So a competitive offer was not going to get it done. Instead of blowing him away, Ryan chose to go in another direction. He muttered something about durability and innings. I don't agree with it. But I'm also not going to get pissed off about it. In the grand scheme of things, the decision is not that big a deal. My point is, it's not just dollars and years. If a guy has two or three competitive offers, other factors enter in.
  19. cmathewson
    Chance of winning. Distance from their family. Wanting to pitch in the NL. Wanting to pitch in front of a proven defense (we had no center fielder, right fielder or second baseman, a shortstop who had been DFAed twice in the previous 12 months, a backup catcher who was well known as the worst at his trade at framing pitches, and a left fielder who's among the worst in the leaugue).
  20. cmathewson
    We've had three worse 3Bs in Twins unis in the last decade: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb and Brian Buscher.
  21. cmathewson
    Robertson is still with the team. The Twins have 12 healthy pitchers left. So, it's not him. I'm guessing Thielbar.
  22. cmathewson
    Not sure about that one. He completely destroyed the pitching staff. That was before pitch counts and long relievers.
  23. cmathewson
    Fair enough. The contraction thing is point 0. And the Herr trade should be slotted in behind number 4, where your Mr. Ron Davis is listed.
  24. cmathewson
    First, it's amazing to think how few players are left from the 2011 team that opened the season. If my maths are right, it's just four (Duensing, Perkins, Mauer and Morneau). As far as this year goes, I am cautiously optimistic. I think the Twins have improved at several positions over the team that went north last year. Really, all the positions except 2, 3, 7 and 10. I also think the bullpen is better with the subtraction of Capps and Gray and the additions of Fien and Roenicke. The rotation is the big question mark. I'm more optimistic than I was last year at this time, especially after the Baker injury. I had little hope for Blackburn or Marquis. I thought Pavano would be OK. I thought Hendriks wasn't ready. Now I'm confident in Diamond, I think Worley will be OK. I think Hendriks is ready. And I like Pelfrey's chances. I am not confident at all about Correia, but with Devries and Deduno ready to step in and with Gibson and Meyer waiting for their chance, I feel the rotation will eventually settle out to be pretty decent. I don't think it will be good enough to help the team contend. But I think it will be competitive. I'm betting on 83-79.
  25. cmathewson
    The dumbest things the Twins have ever done: 1. Trading JJ Hardy to make room for Tsuyoshi Nishioka 2. Trading their top pitcher and their only viable shortstop for Delmon Young 3. Selling Jim Kaat for $500 to their arch rivals 4. Trading Butch Wynegar and Roy Smalley for Ron Davis 5. Trading Ramos for Capps 6. Signing Joe Mays to a long-term deal after one good season 7. Signing Blackburn to a long-term deal after two good seasons 8. (tie) Signing Mike Lamb, Tony Batista, Rondell White 9. Signing Kevin Correia to a two-year deal 10. Signing Nick Punto to a two-year deal for starting shortstop money
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