cmathewson
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Everything posted by cmathewson
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Brian, The shift thing makes little sense. Guys get more credit for getting to balls outside of their designated zones. Also, positioning is part of being a good fielder. Ripken was slow and old, but he was great at positioning, which is also Hardy's secret sauce. I want to know how many balls he's getting to that he should be getting to, whether he gets to them by positioning, good jumps, or because he busted his tail adjusting to a crappy jump from a poor position. It's always been my belief that Revere makes up for his poor positioning and crappy jumps with speed and hustle. He will slow with age. But his positioning and jumps are not likely to improve. I do agree that we are talking about smallish samples. He plays behind a staff that gets a lot of Ks, so he hasn't had as many chances as I would have expected. Then again, you have to get to the ball for it to be a chance. The jury is still out on his defense. His offense, on the other hand, is not defensible.
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Fine, but you missed the point. I presumed that none of us watch the Phillies games. So in the absence of that evidence, what do we have to go on? UZR data. If that is off the table, we can't really have a discussion based on any evidence at all. "I think Revere is a great fielder, but I refuse to use data to draw that conclusion, and I haven't seen him play in two years" is not something I can either agree with or disagree with.
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It's not a perfect stat, but it's the best evidence we have in the absence of watching him play everyday. Do you watch all the Phillies games? I didn't think so. UZR fluctuates as does average. It depends on luck. A guy could get a lot of hard hit balls hit in his zone. But, like batting average, large samples tend to reveal true ability. Revere has put in a lot of games in the Phillies outfield. And his numbers have not fluctuated. It's possible he's been extremely unlucky. But with each passing game, that become less likely.
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He was much better in RF for the Twins. His CF numbers were ordinary in small samples. Since going to the Phillies, he's been below average. I'm just citing numbers to back up what the Phillies fans are saying.
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Last 28 games: .250/.413/.389/.802
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Last 7 games: .400/.526/.467/.993 Perhaps it's the start of a trend. Anyway, you don't dump him when he's that hot.
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Revere 2013 UZR -2.6 2014 UZR -2.6, UZR/150: -9.6
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Also, xFIP doesn't count inherited runners that score.
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Parker analyzed this. Stance less open. Quicker to the ball. More aggressive.
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I'm no Guerrier fan, but Tonkin? Are we watching the same guy? Maybe I'm unlucky, but I've seen him give up five leads this year. The typical Tonkin outing: Walk, Walk, homer. The last time I watched him, it went walk walk homer walk walk yank. How does a guy like that not have an xFIP over 10?
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That was Radcliff's last draft. He was known for drafting based on signability as much as (or more than) ability. Revere agreed to a $750K signing bonus, which was about half of those before and after him in the draft. He was not projected to go until the third round.
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I agree with this. The logical thing to do was to activate him and option him earlier, if you knew you needed to option him, but you would need his bat in NL parks. They just blew that decision. It reminds me of the Bartlett retirement. We had to DFA Mastro while we waited for the Bartlett retirement papers to be processed. Of course, they could have submitted them as soon as Bartlett announced his retirement. But they gave him a chance to sleep on it and waited two extra days to file the papers. Once they knew they needed a spot for Fuld, they could have DFAd Bartlett prior to retirement rather than risking losing the only center field depth they had above A ball. These basic mistakes never happened until Antony took over.
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I wouldn't assume Hicks will radically improve, but he has three months of OPSes above .700 and a couple below .600. He's also had a pretty low BABIP despite a decent IsO, suggesting he's hitting a lot of balls hard at people. He might not magically improve, but his luck should improve. It's not like we're talking about Florimon. On the other hand, if he doesn't get his OPS over .800 by the end of the year, he's not a very good fit for a corner outfield job either. I project him at about .740 by the end of the year, which is fine for a good fielding center fielder (something he also needs to improve). Given how both the manager and the front office routinely rip his intangibles, he's a prime candidate to get the Ben Revere treatment, assuming Buxton comes back this year and returns to form, at least in AA.
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He was always rated very highly in the minors. So why has he struggled up here? Maybe if we listen to what he has said, it might help. He has said his biggest challenges in learning how to play up here include the bigger second deck behind home plate and the higher drives that get lost in the sea of white shirts up there. In the minors, balls hit high tend to not be as deep as they are up here. So you have a chance to get under them. That makes sense, because if they hit them high and deep, they end up in the MLB. Not to make excuses, just to point out that he has a learning curve and miscues should diminish over time. It also makes it tougher that he has played next to a first baseman and a DH for most of the year. Maybe the learning curve would be easier if he had real outfielders next to him. Obviously, he's still learning. He probably needs to play deeper. That might help. But Levi and others seem to believe that he is hopeless out there. That conclusion is premature.
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It's really early to pronounce Arcia and Hicks as poor defenders forever, based on less than a year of judging balls in major league parks off the bats of major league hitters, who tend to hit the ball harder. Also, I believe Arcia has been out since April, so we would swap him out for Colabello or Kubel, which is an upgrade. The team has had about five games all year with the outfield they "built". It was not the best built outfield, but the main problem is guys playing out of position because of injuries and roster mismanagement, which is more about Antony's incompetence than the guy who built the outfield.
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I'm not a fan of calling guys up from AA for short-term bench assignments. If he's ready to skip a level, he's good enough to start at the DH position. I don't think that's the case. With Willingham and Arcia a week away, it makes sense to use Hermann as filler. He'll be a Red Wing again before the month is out.
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Wow. Just wow. The guy has exceeded everyone's wildest expectations and you have to pick on the one thing he's struggled with, which he has little control over anyway. Fryer is a decent bench guy in an emergency. That is it.
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I'd say he has one plus tool at this stage. Range is about a 30 at best. His hit tool is about a 40 at best. Speed is probably 60. Arm and power are 20. He's a marginal center fielder. His UZR last year was -2.3. This year, it's already -2.0, his UZR/150 is -8.8. Apparently, the range is slipping with age. That, combined with a .591 OPS, and he's a huge liability. May doesn't have to be better than a fifth starter/long man for the Twins to win this trade.
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Yeah. To me, flexibility implies being good at more than one position. Bartlett was flexible too, and he was an awful choice for the outfield.
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Arcia was optioned earlier this week and available. I had heard it was going to be Arcia, who has a chance to do some damage. I'm not convinced Hermann does. Maybe they wanted to keep Arcia down there to play every day?
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I agree reed with these. When Arcia comes up, Cola goes down. And Tonkin is not ready. He has one decent pitch-- a 93mph straight fastball. He has to locate it, which has been his biggest challenge. His numbers are actually deceiving. He's allowed a startling number of inherited runners to score. When Pelfrey comes up, he goes down.
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Hartman: Gardy praises Hicks, too.
cmathewson replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You've never liked Hicks, have ya? Is it because he doesn't have enough grit? Not bustin' his tail enough? Just not gettin' after it? -
Article: Revisiting Aaron Hicks and Switch-Hitting
cmathewson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Berardino said he often talks to Hicks about the next pitcher or two. Hicks not only knows him, he has a plan. The whole preparation thing is comparable to Bartlett's leadership thing. It's just Gardy attributing bad habits to guys who are not hyperactive ADD guys like himself. Antony amplifying Gardy's stuff, after Gardy talked privately to the player is not only wrong, it's completely unwarranted. -
Berardino: Antony/Gardy on Aaron Hicks
cmathewson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It will be interesting to see what the Twins do re: the GM job. I truly hope TR can return, as much for my care for his well being as the Twins success. But if he can't, I hope they put another baseball man in charge. It is a long-held belief that you can't make a baseball man from someone who didn't grow up around the game. They tried that with Smith and it was a disaster. I hope they don't repeat that mistake. -
Berardino: Antony/Gardy on Aaron Hicks
cmathewson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
We're talking about the guy who recommended Mike Lamb; presided over the Delmon Young, Matt Capps and Jim Hoey trades and the Tsuioshi Nishioka signing; strongly recommended the signing of Nick Blackburn to a long-term contract when he had pitched for two years at just above replacement level; and shown no regard for center field depth in his time as acting GM, botching two easy decisions. He's in over his head. Either Ryan comes back at full strength or they should put a baseball man in charge. Rob Antony is no baseball man.
