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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    Fun with numbers. He's also fourth in RBIs.
  2. cmathewson
    Read Nick's comment. Last night was his first multi-hit game. But he's been getting hits and walks at a pretty good clip since April 15.
  3. cmathewson
    This. Not only did the 2012 FA class only feature two 1/2 pitchers (3 if you count Dempster), the guys behind them were full of question marks--all of them. I have some hope for this next offseason, where you could argue you will have a half a dozen 2s and perhaps a few 1s, depending on extensions.
  4. cmathewson
    His history is really bad in April, and he tends to heat up in May and June. Combine that with the jump from AA to the bigs, and we could expect him to struggle. Maybe not as badly as he did in April. If we could give him a mulligan for the first 10 games, he'd be right about where I'd expect at this point. As the season progresses, I expect him to continue to improve. As MWW said, no reason to send him down as long as he continues to improve.
  5. cmathewson
    This is the thing. I'd like to see a Parkeresque video analysis of his pitches now vs when he was going good for Philly. I have seen some footage from that year and his sinker was filthy. I'm not seeing that at all right now. It's flat and barely has any movement of any kind. What worries me is he says the ball is coming out of his hand good. But it sure isn't doing what it did when he was good. This is not the pitcher I expected to be getting in this trade.
  6. cmathewson
    I don't know what they expect. The 2/1 rules is commonly held in the industry. That goes for every pitcher, prospect or not. Pitching is one of the most unnatural things people can do with their bodies. It makes them extremely prone to injuries. Thing is, through much of the last decade, they haven't had even one prospect of the quality of Gibson. Garza was the closest I can think of. Meyer is a better prospect than Gibson. And May is showing he belongs in that class. Meanwhile Berrios has a chance to be better than all three considering his age. If two of the four work out, that's two more home-grown, front-line pitchers than they've had through much of the last decade. In the past, the Twins were content to tout guys like Baxendale, who could become a useful 4-5 guy. But the Twins have relied on that kind of pitcher for the front of their rotation. Diamond is an example. Upshot: While they're prospects, they have better odds of being quality major leaguers than most--still not as high of odds as veterans like Sanchez. But he will start wearing down in the next few years. Youth has the advantage of better odds of durability. I think you need both in a quality rotation.
  7. cmathewson
    I didn't say I was worried. I said the scenario intrigues me. My opinion is they should sign a top-flight pitcher to a long-term contract after this year. I just don't think Greinke or Sanchez are worth what they got. Sanchez is closer. But Greinke is not as good as some think. I understand you have to overspend to compete with the Dodgers or Angels. But not that much, not for Greinke.
  8. cmathewson
    I thought I saw a tweet about an Angel Morales homer for the Miracle. Just a rumor?
  9. cmathewson
    Sure. It's the nature of the thing, even if you sign your own players long term. I'm pretty sure Mauer can't give us the value commensurate with his contract, but I'm still happy with it. I was just responding to the claim that you can trade guys locked up to huge contracts. Maybe near the end of them. But only if the player remains reasonably healthy. The scenario that intrigues me is having Greinke and Sanchez while Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios and perhaps a Stewart-type draft pick come along. You probably can't trade the veterans, so you start trading your youngsters. Not necessarily a bad thing, in itself. But it seems like you can actually do better if you have a lot of young top starters vs. guys who are wearing down.
  10. cmathewson
    He could be a poor man's Revere. Similar range. Similar OBP (less contact, more walks). Similar power.
  11. cmathewson
    Well, now you're arguing from the best case scenario for those two. The worst case is both Sanchez and Greinke blowing out their elbows or shoulders, and being practically untradeable, as Santana has been for the last three years. I don't think the worst case is all that likely, but it is pretty likely that one of them will have a major injury over the life of their respective contracts.
  12. cmathewson
    I'd like to, but I can't find anything in the forum archives. It was in the last thread we had about what horrible signings Correia and Pelfrey were.
  13. cmathewson
    Does Worley have options?
  14. cmathewson
    Yeah, his production dropped off a cliff for some reason during the 2010 season. What was it? Oh yeah, a career-threatening concussion. He's just now getting back to his old self health-wise. So there's at least a chance his production will follow.
  15. cmathewson
    Not one person has said that. You can go ahead and torch that straw man. I'm pretty sure we all want the team to win. I for one would love the Twins to spend all the money they have and then some to win. I just don't think it's always feasible to do that. It doesn't make sense to spend money to make the team worse, which is a distinct possibility with some of the available free agents.
  16. cmathewson
    They've tried him every place else. I thought perhaps left field.
  17. cmathewson
    If you don't trust them to put together the best roster they can with the available resources, then the Twins should replace the FO. I admit, Ryan has a bad track record with free agents, at least he did until his second coming. I like what he's done with free agents and waiver claims since he returned. I especially like the way he rebuilt the bullpen. I'm not as down on the Correia signing as some here, but I admit I was puzzled by it at first. I don't mind the Pelfrey signing. I guess the jury is still out for me. I personally would give him one more offseason to see if he can put together a contender. But it's not about whether he spends the money he has available. It's about whether he gets enough talent to win. He certainly will have no excuse for not building a contending team with the combination of resources, the emergence of in-house talent, and the expectant class of free agents.
  18. cmathewson
    If they sign Morneau, they will do it in part for upside. He very nearly endened his career a la Cory Koskie. It's been a long way back from the brink. He's not there yet. Will he ever be? I think it's too early to tell. This past week he's shown signs of staying on the ball and not jumping out at every pitch. That's a start. But he hasn't driven the ball to right or over the fence. If he starts doing that and continues to get his hits otherwise, he'll be worth it. No need to make the decision until at least the All-Star break. If they don't sign him, they should do the Cuddyer thing and sign a capable replacement for his expected production. I don't like our in-house options, at least until Vargas, Harrison, Keplar, or Walker are ready, assuming Sano stays at third.
  19. cmathewson
    OK, but how do we spend this money, if not on one of the M&M boy? If we don't resign him, we are about to cross the threshold to 30% of revenue. If there's ever a case for overspending, he's it. I know he's not the 2010 Morneau, but consider what Teixeira makes. The pre-2010 Morneau was every bit as good as that guy. In the first half of 2010, he was arguably the best hitter in the game. So he's regressed from there. He's till a pretty darn good hitter.
  20. cmathewson
    If there are no clear upgrades available on the FA market, all things considered, it makes no sense to sign what is available. In those cases, it is almost always better to go with your internal options. Internal options that are about as good as any of the free agents will typically be better in future years because they are younger. If you sign crappy free agents just to spend your money, you can make your team worse.
  21. cmathewson
    I don't get it. Where are all the people calling for us to spend the surplus on a guy who is behind only Kent Hrbek and Harmon Killebrew in 1b production? I don't think we need to worry about spending a few extra millions on a clear upgrade over any other guy in the organization. Colabello? Really? Has anyone watched this past week? Justin is killing it. If he keeps this up, $13 million will be a bargain.
  22. cmathewson
    Some people use it as a proxy for value, as in, "the MVP should just be the guy with the highest WAR." But most posters here understand its limitations .
  23. cmathewson
    I'd make the qualifying offer. He's worth it. I wanted to see Parmelee for a month before I formed that opinion. I really don't think he's ready to replace Justin's production. I don't know about a longer deal for Justin, though. To me, that hinges on whether Sano can stay at third. If so, I'd offer something similar to the Willingham's deal, maybe a little better, say, 3/28 plus incentives.
  24. cmathewson
    How much of the Cape Cod dominance had to do with wooden bats? Just a theory, but wood bats have smaller sweet spots, making them more susceptible to command/control pitching. To dominate metal bat conferences, you need to have stuff.
  25. cmathewson
    It's not all luck. Pitch to contact works if you get a lot of weak grounders and pop-ups. If guys are making solid contact, it's a matter of luck to get outs. But the point of pitching is to prevent them from making solid contact. The best case is no contact. But it does take three pitches to get a guy out with a strike-out. You can sometimes get two guys out with one pitch on a grounder. To me, the ideal is a Verlander, who pitches to contact until he gets guys in scoring position, then he goes for strikeouts. The key is, he usually avoids solid contact. And he has more than one strikeout pitch to fall back on. So he's very effective in getting strikeouts when he needs to. But pitching to contact allows him to lead the league in innings every year. When he was younger, he tried to strike everybody out. And he had a lot of short starts. When he matured, he learned to dial it back a bit and hit his spots, where he could keep the ball off the fat part of the bat and get a lot of quick outs. Thing is, most guys are not like Verlander. Most guys are lucky to get weak grounders and pop-ups. For these guys, going for strikeouts all the time is a recipe for disaster. The key is to try to get guys like Verlander if you can. It's not easy, but it might be the only way to build a championship staff. We're a long way from that, obviously. Though I have some hope for Gibson, May, Meyer and Berios, and perhaps Baxendale and Wimmers as well.
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