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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    That's what irked me watching his last game. Suzuki would set up over the inside corner, he'd hit the mitt, and the ump would call a ball. A couple of times with two strikes, the ball actually moved more over the plate, forcing Suzuki to move the mitt toward the center of the plate to catch it, and he still called it a ball. It seems they give him a different strike zone with two strikes. Growing up, we were taught to protect the plate with two strikes. If anything, the opposite is the case now. Gibson's last start was a case in point. Since the context was K/BB, I thought called third strikes (especially on 3-2 pitches) was relevant. The only reason I compared him to hall of famers is not because I think he will be. But Glavin and Maddux were legendary for getting pitches called on the black. You hardly ever saw them throw pitches over the heart of the plate. They were on the corners and out. And they got a lot of balls called strikes. Those days are gone, especially for young pitchers. Now you practically have to throw it down the middle to get a third strike called.
  2. cmathewson
    This reminds me a little of the Aaron Hicks struggles from last year. It is magnified because it is the beginning of the season. Also, as DFGG indicated, he's a bit snake bit. His BABIP is .100. Last year is was .284. Because he hits a lot of ground balls, his BABIP will be lower than average, about what it was last year. So he obviously is a bit unlucky. Let's see if some of those liners start finding holes, as they did with Aaron Hicks last year, before making a critical mistake. I would give him into May. The numbers on Nunez are just bad. If he hit better, I could see it. But he hits just a little better than Escobar while playing poor defense. Before giving him a chance, why not give the job to Escobar? Every indication from AAA suggests Nunez is seen as a utility guy. If you need to send Florimon down (passing him through waivers), you could promote Escobar to the everyday shortstop and give Nunez his job. I would be OK with that. I just don't want a -40 UZR guy at short everyday, not when we are scoring runs, and not with three starters who throw a lot of sinkers.
  3. cmathewson
    Kepler certainly is a legit prospect. I think Walker is. Probably Harrison. Not sure about the rest.
  4. cmathewson
    Koskie is said to have been the hairiest person in that clubhouse. I think they pranked him about it a couple of times. Anywho, I agree with JB. Let this thing play out. But there are enough question marks about him that I would no longer rank him in my top 10. Polanco is ahead of him, and he is a legitimate threat to unseat Dozier, when the time comes. So perhaps they move Rosario to a corner. I'm not convinced he can't play there. He might not have the power traditonally associated with a corner player, but he could be a very productive corner player nonetheless. As for trading him, now would be the worst time. If he comes back and rakes in the second half, maybe you trade him in the offseason for the right deal. But why trade him unless you need to or his value is very high?
  5. cmathewson
    Tough call. But I'd rather have a guy who can't hit than watch every grounder get through the left side of the infield. We are scoring runs. We're having a hard time preventing runs.
  6. cmathewson
    That last scenario is unlikely considering that the Astros already claimed the Twins CF cast off.
  7. cmathewson
    This. Plus look at his Pitch F/X data. He's been seriously squeezed. I probably said "where was that pitch?" 10 times in his last start. Six of them were with 2 strikes. I didn't see the first start, but I saw the data. He will get more calls as umps get used to him.
  8. cmathewson
    He has a good but not great slider. He doesn't throw it often enough. I don't know how good it was prior to TJ. If that come from a pre-draft analysis, it might have been hype. Kohl Stewart is said to have a "whipe-out slider". That term is thrown around way too much for my taste.
  9. cmathewson
    Brock's point about Hardy is gut wrenching. Assuming they had not traded him and instead used Nishioka's money (plus some of the surplus) to sign him to a long-term deal, just think of the stability at that position such a move would have enabled. <shakes head>
  10. cmathewson
    Hardy's played in 317 games the last two years. Drew doesn't exactly have a great injury track record. Last year, he managed 124 games. Prior to that, you'd have to go back to 2010 to find a year when he played in more than 86. As I said, last year was a career year.
  11. cmathewson
    Mike Aviles * Asdrubal Cabrera Yunel Escobar * Alex Gonzalez J.J. Hardy Jed Lowrie Jimmy Rollins * I'll take Hardy over Drew every day of the week. Cabrera as well. Then again, I'm not as high on Drew as you are. 2013 was a career year for him. He's played some ugly defense in prior years.
  12. cmathewson
    Beresford and Santana are both better options at this point. To your frustration Mike, I think they saw this coming, but they wanted to see it play out rather than get Drew or someone. Until I see how the young 'uns play, I don't feel qualified to criticize. Drew was a push at the price for this year. Next year, I'd like someone better. I think Santana could be that guy. But Beresford is intriguing. Perhaps he has turned some sort of corner. A lot of Aussie players are slow developers because they just have such a long learning curve. At one time, he signed the largest FA contract ever by an Australian at $450,000 (to be later eclipsed by Lewis Thorpe). He repeated low A and AA, but pretty much progressed a level at a time otherwise, but never really hit much at any level. His best OPS is .721 as a 24 year old repeating AA. His career OPS is comparable to Florimon and Escobar (.669). I had all but given up on him for the same reason a lot of folks around here gave up on Florimon. You can't teach contact. But this year, he's really hitting the ball. He's obviously due for a huge regression, so I wouldn't get my hopes up too high for this hot streak. But maybe he's found something worth following.
  13. cmathewson
    The key to that is his offspeed stuff. When he throws everything hard, he gets a lot of grounders, and some of them get through the infield. When he throws his split (which DickNBrt call his slower sinker) and his change more often, he gets more Ks.
  14. cmathewson
    I projected regression from him, to about .550 OPS. I think that might actually be on the high side because he missed so much of spring training. Maybe he can regain that "magic" down in AAA and be serviceable, or a decent player at that level, as long as he doesn't take reps away from the heir apparent (Santana). Within the next couple of weeks would be the time to try to pass him through waivers and go to Plan B. No one would claim him at this stage. If they did, no big whoop. My Plan B is to give Escobar the starting job until Santana is ready. Until then, swap out Florimon and Nunez and make Nunez the utility guy. I hope this arrangement lasts only until midseason, however, as Santana will be ready around that time. I want to give him significant reps this year so he'll have an easier time adjusting to the majors next year. When Bartlett runs out of rehab runway, they'll probably just DFA him. If not, they option either Hermann or Nunez to make room for Bartlett. Santana'll push Esco back to the utility role and they'll option Hermann or Nunez to make room for that arrangement. It's good having a couple of bench players with options. As long as Nunez does not start for a significant period of time, with three starting pitchers who get a lot of ground balls, I'll be OK. This move has the feeling of inevitablility about it. I just hope they manage the transitions better than they have in the past. We all remember the years they tried Brendan Harris as a starter at different positions. That was three different train wrecks.
  15. cmathewson
    I fear what will happen when Nunez replaces Florimon. I could see giving Esco a shot for a couple of months until Santana is ready. But Nunez is just bad at defense. Maybe they give Esco the job and make Nunez the utility guy. I can live with that.
  16. cmathewson
    ^^^^This
  17. cmathewson
    Would I trade Butera for Nunez? Hells yes, considering that we have an abundance of back-up catchers and a shortage of middle infielders. But neither is worth much, and neither will make much of a difference in the grand scheme of thigs.
  18. cmathewson
    I take defensive metrics with a large grain of salt. But when they are this consistently bad for this length of time, it is unequivocal evidence that he is bad at defense, He can hit a little, but not enough to make up for his atrocious fielding. Brendan Harris is a good comp, and he literally tripped over his feet out there.
  19. cmathewson
    Perkins just about in mid season form after a slow start.
  20. cmathewson
    Go Perk.
  21. cmathewson
    I have a feeling we'll Ned some insurance runs.
  22. cmathewson
    Best athletes on the field.
  23. cmathewson
    Why did we run for Kubel again?
  24. cmathewson
    Nuts to that.
  25. cmathewson
    Mauer doesn't do that very often. I look for an opo single here.
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