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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Career average Santana earned run prevention, replacing Correia + Pino innings (190), would save 21 earned runs. Career average Nolasco earned run prevention, replacing Nolasco + Pelfrey innings (183), would save 28 earned runs. Hughes is a little bit trickier to estimate. His career average earned run prevention as a starter would be add roughly 15 runs over his 2014 performance. That would be -35 earned runs allowed for those spots. Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad! I think that's where you can hopefully see the most improvement, just don't know who will get the nod to do it yet.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    For those curious, if you remove the pitchers batting he faced last year, Santana would have roughly a 7.8 K/9 and 20.6 K%, both his highest season marks since 2008. Also, although his ERA+ was 127 and 92 the past two seasons, I estimate his FIP adjusted for league and park would have been about 105 and 108, respectively, in ERA+ terms.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana season averages: 188 IP, 1.7 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR In the 6 seasons since his peak performance in 2008, he is averaging 196 IP, 1.4 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR. Nolasco season averages, pre-2014: 188 IP, 1.5 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    As for Santana, did we offer this last year? Our March offer to him was reportedly only 3/33.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor nit: the Twins forfeit their second round pick (currently #44 overall), but it doesn't directly go to the Braves. The Braves get a pick in a supplemental round between the first and second rounds, somewhere around #30 accounting for lost picks in the first round. It would be a bigger distinction for teams that don't have protected (top 10) first round picks. For example, the Mets forfeited their first rounder (#15 overall) to sign Cuddyer, but the pick gained by Colorado will actually be closer to #30. We still have a special "competitive balance" pick after the second round, though -- roughly #71 overall. Very cool page tracking those things here: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/order.jsp
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Posting to a thread to say how you're above posting in a thread: always classy. This Mauer thread was posted before the winter meetings began. It has 74 posts in 4 days (including the last few, debating its thread-worthiness). Since it was posted, 15 separate articles/threads have been posted in this forum alone discussing this week's speculation and transactions, accumulating a total of 661 posts as of right now. Despite the fact that the Twins haven't officially done anything yet other than make their Rule 5 pick. There is also a "MLB Baseball" forum at this site for non-Twins discussion.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the minor league Rule 5 guys are for keeps, and can be assigned anywhere. Brian Buscher was a minor league Rule 5 guy that we assigned to AA to start.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, but I am not sure anyone is lining up to overpay for Escobar. With the shortstop position still a bit of a question, I'd be reluctant to trade a cheap solid utility guy for Dillon Gee too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now. Just read this: "The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think so. I haven't heard any others.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Can Graham dial it up out of the bullpen? He was kind of a modest K, control guy before his injury.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In the minor league phase, Twins add Greg Peavey from the Mets system: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre Twins also Matt Tomshaw in the minor league phase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Miami selects Matt Tomshaw from the Twins in the minor league phase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    AAA phase We got Greg Peavey from the Mets http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre 1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Tim Crabbe, CIN 2. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Simon, PHI 3. Texas Rangers - Roderick Shoulders, CHC 4. Houston Astros - Luis Flores, CHC
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Ahead of us: 1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Oscar Hernandez 2. Colorado Rockies - Mark Canha 3. Texas Rangers - Delino Deshields 4. Houston Astros - Jason Garcia (traded to Baltimore) http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/2014-rule-5-draft-results.html
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Mets select Sean Gilmartin.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    J.R. Graham is our choice! DeShields was off the board, I wasn't really paying attention to the other names. White Sox were the first to pass at #7.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Just reported that Masterson has a deal with the Red Sox.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Live audio link is on the mlb.com homepage now, here it is: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40172882/v37035539
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    $300k in 2003, compared to $500k in 2014: http://www.statista.com/statistics/256187/minimum-salary-of-players-in-major-league-baseball/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, reverse order of standings. Complete draft order here: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103184576/rule-5-of-thumb-gems-can-be-found-in-draft The top 5 (and all have an open spot or two on their 40-man rosters): 1. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. Colorado Rockies 3. Texas Rangers 4. Houston Astros 5. Minnesota Twins
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This thread is 4 days old. Also, there is another Ervin Santana thread currently with 157 replies since yesterday.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Draft starts at 11 AM Central. You are correct, there is no link yet. Probably check back closer to 11.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    2013 upside is going to be tough -- that was his second-best season by wRC+, and it was fueled by uncharacteristic BABIP and isolated power. FWIW, Steamer projects him at a 119 wRC+ for 2015, very close to his post-DL 2014 performance (basically just knocking down the walk rate from that late season sample to his career average). I'd put his more probable upside at his career average 131 wRC+, and the downside at a repeat 2014 (106 wRC+).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I am definitely in the camp that says the Twins have room for more starting pitchers. However, I'd probably resist adding Santana for a Nolasco-type contract now. He would improve us right away, but I can't shake the feeling that some of our best prospects are going to turn out to be average-ish starters (like Gibson arguably already has), and I'd rather gamble some money or a roster spot on some more upside (Anderson, Masterson, etc.). To quote Seth, though, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Actually my biggest issue with a Santana signing now, around the rumored 4/50 price, would be, why didn't we do it last winter? Getting some guys was necessary for our league-worst staff, so I sorta understand the quick action on Nolasco and Hughes (less so for Pelfrey). But I suspect we over-rated what we had in Nolasco and didn't make our best offers for Garza and Santana later.
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