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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Giles is barely a proven closer, just 2 months in that role. That brief experience helps, but I think they just like that 11.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9. Even in some alternate universe where Papelbon stayed in Philly, I could see the Astros targeting setup man Giles to be their new dominant closer. I endorse the trade for Philly, and probably don't do it if I'm Houston, but I respect that they are at least aiming high here. Like Velasquez, Giles is super-cheap with a ton of team control, but he's also been absolutely dominant in an MLB pen for an extended time already. Put another way: would you give up those other 3 guys (in some kind of Faustian pact, I guess ) if it guaranteed Velasquez 2016 would perform like Giles 2014-2015? That's kind of what the Astros did here.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it would still come down to Dean vs. Jones. A good spring on the 40-man roster and Jones could be in right back in the RP mix. I'm struggling to come up with scenarios where Dean is in the mix for anything in 2016. And once you invoke the term "organizational depth" -- that's exactly the kind of guy you leave unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Because teams don't use the Rule 5 draft to acquire "organizational depth" so you shouldn't be afraid of exposing such depth to the draft. We still had another year of control over Dean, there would have been a better case for protecting Dean if he was going to become a minor league free agent and the 40-man add was necessary to keep him in the org. If Dean had been selected in the Rule 5 draft, would anyone have cared? We'd still have Milone, Rogers, O'Rourke, hopefully a FA LH reliever, and a bunch of RHP. Sign Andrew Albers to take his place way down there on the depth chart.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? I've never seen Dean associated with that level of velocity. From the Rochester newspaper, highlighting his successful 2015 season: "his fastball doesn't hit over 90 mph very often" http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/minors/2015/08/02/dean-stellar-red-wings/31036593/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Perkins had a career K/9 of 8.7 as a minor league starter, Hendriks 7.6, and Rivera 8.0, which are probably the more appropriate points of comparison for Dean's minor league K/9. Context should matter too -- in Rivera's final AAA season (1995), the International League had a K/9 of 6.2, as compared to 7.1 in 2015. Strikeouts are way up in baseball, making Dean's low K rate even more noteworthy. I'm pretty comfortable forecasting Pat Dean's future K rate, regardless of role.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's likely, but that's the hypothetical posed by this thread. Simply put: if you release Nolasco, you get an open roster spot. If you make this hypothetical trade instead, you get Shields on effectively a 3/40 contract with a 4th year $14 mil option ($16 mil minus a $2 mil buyout I already included in the 3/40). I don't think you have to be particularly high on Shields to find the latter preferable to the former. (And if Shields opts out after 1 year, you actually save $4 mil from the trade, plus get a season of presumably plus pitching from Shields.) Of course, I agree that a straight-up trade like this is highly unlikely, which is all the more evidence this hypothetical favors the Twins greatly.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    RHP Craig Stammen, you mean? Probably not a bad target, although he hasn't pitched since surgery in April, and saw a drop in K rate and effectiveness prior to that in 2014. He's supposed to be 100% but maybe he takes a little time to get re-acclimated. He's also just shy of 6 years service so he'd be a free agent again after 2016 unless you extended him (no team control).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if Wilson's name came up in the Hicks-Murphy discussion. Wonder what prospects could have been added to that deal. Both guys from the Tigers are C/C+ type prospects, with one even requiring a 40-man roster spot despite no MLB experience yet (and the other one will be Rule 5 eligible next winter if not added to the 40-man). Feels like we could have scored Wilson back then, or at least laid the groundwork to get him now...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, what team needs Plouffe (has a big hole to cover at 3B to contend in 2016-2017), but also has a "real lefty reliever" to spare? Might they also want to keep that "real lefty reliever" for their own contending team, especially if the FA market for such players is dry enough to force the Twins to trade?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It does look pretty bad, although at this point, Brett Lawrie's last two arbitration seasons weren't going to make much of a difference either way. Saving ~$10 mil might actually help the ledger for Oakland, at this point, more than playing Lawrie would have. The A's also still have Franklin Barreto from the deal, SS prospect, all the way up to #18 on MLB.com's midseason top 100 update (just ahead of Berrios at the time). It's extremely unlikely to ever be a win for Oakland or even a wash, but Barreto could save it from historical ignominy.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I know it was quick mental math, but it doesn't really work that way. The teams that passed on Jones today were not simply passing on him for their 40-man rosters, they were passing on him for a guaranteed 25-man roster spot for all of 2016. That's the way Rule 5 works. Plenty of teams may have valued Jones around #30 on their own 40-man roster, but didn't want the inflexibility of guaranteeing him a spot in their top 25 all season. Not saying Jones is all that valuable, by definition Rule 5 picks pretty much aren't, but I just didn't think this was an accurate representation of how teams might value him.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In that case, why not protect Jones instead, so in the event you fail to sign a reliever, Jones can compete for a bullpen spot in 2016? I don't know that we would really want Dean competing for a pen spot regardless. I don't think it's a huge deal, but I think it's a question worth discussing. I'd also bet dollars to donuts that Dean isn't the one sacrificed if we sign another MLB FA this winter.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I thought too, although Velasquez is only a year behind Giles in terms of service time. Velasquez would have to achieve pen dominance pretty rapidly to catch up in expected value, they are almost on the same control/salary schedule. Not sure I would have made this trade, but beyond Velasquez, the other prospects don't look that great.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. It could effectively be getting Shields for 3/40 as a consolation prize for releasing Nolasco. Shields and his 2015 season are not perfect, but he's easily still an attractive asset at 3/40 which is why there is no way in heck that San Diego would agree to this deal, there are far better ways to acquire reclamation projects (and probably far better reclamation projects to target than Nolasco).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    5 teams made two Rule 5 selections this year, it wouldn't surprise me if one of those teams intended to carry two. The Brewers other pick is a position player with at least some surface versatility, not sure why they couldn't manage to carry him and a pitcher if they wanted.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't on Dave's list, but Pat Dean is the obvious one to me.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, but a return greater than that still doesn't mean it would be a good return, or a trade worth making. I imagine the Reds are feeling this on the Frazier market too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    True, and Oakland has a tendency to force trades rather than seek max value, but I still think this speaks to the demand side of the 3B market.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    McGee would be cheaper than Will Smith, but he wouldn't be cheap. He wasn't hurt at the deadline last year, rather the asking price was quite high -- he later got hurt in August (although he did return before the end of the season).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    And this after signing Gregerson and Neshek, and claiming Will Harris, last winter. Meanwhile, the Twins seem intent on coasting by on the Casey Fien signing 4 years ago, and the Jepsen trade...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    For perhaps 2 years of not-young Perkins at arb salaries? Not so clear on that. Matt Capps got 1 good prospect for 1.5 years of arb salaries, in a widely panned deadline deal. When quality FA relievers often sign for 2/12, 3/15, 3/18, etc., teams are generally pretty hesitant about surrendering talent to get a guy for a slight discount over an already modest market rate. What makes Giles special is that he basically offers you two years free first, then gives you the option to retain him on something like 2/7 of 3/15 or whatever deal.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Link to this year's results: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/2015-rule-5-draft-results.html
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, 5 teams made two Rule 5 selections. Has that ever happened before? Looking at the results, I see 2 teams did that in 2012, and 4 in 2010: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    A little, although it's probably like the R.A. Dickey situation -- with MLB experience, there was some competition for his services on a minor league deal. One team decided to use a 40-man roster spot for a few months to try getting that minor league deal for themselves (assuming they either work out a minor trade or send him back in spring training).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Semantics, but I wouldn't call that a "baseball decision", rather a "business of baseball decision" based precisely on the odd incentives that many of us are criticizing in this thread. We'd like to see more overlap between "baseball" and the "business of baseball" in these high-profile moves.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    After the Yankees declined Pavano's option for 2009, he went to Cleveland, where he posted a 5.37 ERA, earned roughly market rate salary after incentives, and netted Yohan Pino in an August waiver trade. The Yankees went on to win the World Series that season, and the Twins went on to pay Pavano more or less market rate salaries for the next 3 years. Not really a great example of teams giving up on a player too early, although upon closer inspection, perhaps that's what you meant with the smiley face at the end?
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