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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope, no relation: http://www.pressherald.com/2014/05/14/steve_solloway__joe_cronin_lives_with_joe_cronin_/
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Are we all pretty universally disappointed that Berrios isn't getting the call? Looks like Nolasco is listed for Monday's game, and Milone for Tuesday's, while Berrios is scheduled for Sunday in Rochester, so it will be at least another turn before we can see him in MLB again...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Hildenberger doesn't need to be protected from Rule 5 this winter, so I could see them waiting until 2017 to promote him to MLB. Would be nice to see him in AAA yet this year, though. He wasn't drafted until he was almost 24 years old, so making his MLB debut shortly after turning 26 shouldn't be a big deal.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, if you are going back in time anyway, wouldn't it be better to go back to before the 2015 season, and just sign someone like Neshek? You could still have pursued Jepsen at the deadline, but maybe Tampa settles for something less than Hu knowing the Twins aren't quite so desperate. (And once the 2015 season was over, I feel Tampa would have been the one more desperate to deal Jepsen, to avoid his 2016 salary obligation.) Heck, knowing how quickly we were willing to bury Arcia, you could quite possibly have dealt Arcia to the Angels for Jepsen before the 2015 season, if you had your eye on Jepsen back then.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    What exactly did Oakland lose by going all-in? They turned around and traded Samardzija right away themselves -- Addison Russell is a nice young player, but Marcus Semien has been just as valuable the past two years, plus they got a couple other spare parts in that deal. Cespedes for Lester also didn't create any long term issues. Oakland's current predicament is probably the result of selling Donaldson and maybe even Norris, with an assist from a later bad FA buy in Butler, and of course iffy player development and maybe trading Drew Pomeranz too early. Has nothing to do with the aggressive midseason moves in 2014.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair point. I thought I remembered the prospect price for Mark Lowe being higher, but looking back it wasn't. A complicating factor was the Padres had a couple arms (Kelley and Benoit) but weren't selling. Other teams seemed to hold on to some relief arms to include in package deals (Hawkins and Diekman). I guess the rentals we could have gotten were Soria, Clippard, or Cishek?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    See my numbers above -- Jepsen was basically his solid but unspectacular self overall in his Twins tenure. It's just that he way over performed for two months, then underperformed for three. For all we know, he probably would have settled in to that solid but unspectacular groove over his final 3 months if we had given him a chance, but it didn't really matter anymore. Were the Twins really expecting that he'd be so great to finish 2015? Or did they get a bit lucky in that? Otherwise, if we go by expectations based on his career numbers, we probably would have lost an extra game or two in the final two months of 2015 (Jepsen not quite so good), and won an extra game or two or three in the first half of 2016 (Jepsen not quite so bad). Without the luck/randomness/variation, the trade looks even worse.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins actually did do that with Mauer -- just without Ramos in the equation. Age 27, Mauer only started 107 games at catcher. Age 29 he only started 72, and age 30 he was on a full season pace of 96 when he got his concussion. Outside of his "lost season" at age 28, there were no DL stints suppressing those numbers, he just wasn't starting that frequently at catcher anymore after signing his mega-deal.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait, so we're giving credit to the Twins for foreseeing Jepsen's two months of dominance, and giving them a pass because they couldn't have foreseen his 2016 performance? Jepsen's career ERA- was 96 when he came to the Twins. His ERA- in his 5 months with the Twins was actually slightly better than that, 93.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Berardino tweets that the Twins have released Jepsen. https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/752588868734509056
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    While it wasn't a successful outing in the Futures Game, it looks like a similar situation to his MLB debut -- a few base runners and little chance to clean up his own mess: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2016_07_10_wftmin_uftmin_1#game=2016_07_10_wftmin_uftmin_1,game_state=Wrapup,game_tab=play-by-play A full count walk, a single to right, and then an RBI single to left. The next reliever went single-walk-double to plate the last two of Chargois' baserunners (and then some). I guess Chargois hit the rough pitch limit, thanks to the walk and the 3 ball count to the next batter, although it would have been nice to see him face another guy or two. The first two guys he faced, who worked the count, are both hitting .320-.340 on the year with good contact skills. The third guy, who has MLB experience too, only saw 2 pitches, and he struck one hard to left but it possibly should have been stopped by the 3B: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/188659034/v920873283/wldusa-herrera-increases-world-lead-with-rbi/ He may continue struggling in MLB or when facing top prospects, but I'm not sure that continuing to pitch in Rochester is going to help him address those issues either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that, how many plate appearances did Kepler get in his first two option years? Of course he gets four options, but still. Yorman Landa may not get any MLB innings in his first two option years either. It is the nature of the beast. I suspect they are either comfortable trading him soon or using him as at least their primary utility guy next year. I might like to see him play more positions right now, but otherwise I can't fault them too much at this point. They are quite far from burying him and having to waive or DFA him like Arcia.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, this rationalization can be used for any pro athlete. We used it for Colabello -- he was just trying to succeed. We've used it for countless others -- they were trying not to let down the team. Despite the different background, I really don't think these reasons for Park to play through injury are all that different from the reasons driving the average pro athlete.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    At this point, it is hard to know if it is just lip service or not. I am guessing Ryan would have said the same thing when asked in past years. It is a very different thing to actually do it, and do it in a meaningful way (obviously anyone would throw in a few million to get a top 100 prospect at a position of need, but what if it is not so obvious?).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, a good prospect is a good asset. I wouldn't worry too much about position of need, or how close they are to the majors (although obviously better prospects are generally considered closer to the majors).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. Not a lot of benefit to dealing him just for, say, a C prospect and salary relief.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    But couldn't the same be said of Gibson, Cashner, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X? How much is Ervin Santana really providing in this scenario, above and beyond what his FA replacement could be?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like the Twins Labor Day game isn't on the FSN broadcast schedule either. And Memorial Day was on ESPN. Maybe they are trying to give FSN employees the holidays off?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think most of our examples of not eating salary are from the Target Field era. The Morneau trade saga of August 2013 comes to mind (Pittsburgh wanted him, but we wouldn't kick in any cash, so it waited until August 31st when their owner finally approved adding his final month's salary). Besides, it appears likely we will already be "eating" $2.5 mil of Jepsen's salary, perhaps some of Milone's or Nolasco's if that is how we open a rotation spot for Berrios -- I highly doubt they would consider sending money with Ervin too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but the thin crop of FA SP might save us from ourselves too. There aren't a lot of Edwin Jacksons, Matt Garzas, Ricky Nolascos, or Ubaldo Jimenez's to sink a lot of money into this winter -- I'm not convinced that the bidding will reach that high for, say, Andrew Cashner. Our veteran FA SP addition could come in lower than Santana's remaining 2.5 year, $34 million guarantee. With a lower salary and age, such an addition might be easier to move at the 2017 deadline too if we so desire.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a good FA SP class by any means, but I'm not sure if this is really an accurate list of the "top guys" anymore. Rich Hill, Bud Norris, Doug Fister, Jeremy Hellickson, and Andrew Cashner are all healthier and performing better than Weaver, Wilson, and Anderson. RA Dickey and Bartolo Colon are still getting it done at an advanced age. Maybe Sabathia and Jason Hammel, if their options aren't picked up. Other bounceback guys with recent success would include Buchholz and Colby Lewis. A lot of these guys aren't that different from Ervin Santana (career ERA- of 101, FIP- of 103), and will settle for 2/28 or less.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    There are a few. Danny Valencia, Zach Cozart, Yunel Escobar, and David Freese were mentioned in MLBTR's most recent top 20 trade candidate piece, as well as Sean Rodriguez, Steve Pearce, Jed Lowrie, and Mark Reynolds as guys with recent infield experience in the honorable mention group (alongside Plouffe and Nunez): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/top-20-trade-candidates.html
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that Aaron Hill trade. Aaron Wilkerson isn't exactly a prospect, but he is definitely interesting. I would have dealt Plouffe and cash for him (obviously before Plouffe's injury, although I could see Hill as being preferable anyway). I don't think anyone is looking to Gourriel for 2016 help, at this point.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Wilson also just had shoulder surgery, although it sounds like he plans to return for 2017: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/c-j-wilson-to-undergo-shoulder-surgery.html Still, for a team in the Twins position, if we could add a decent prospect and get out of most of Santana's remaining guaranteed cash, we could always take a bit of that cash savings and invest it in a cheap bounceback vet like Wilson too. Probably not worth it for just the cash savings alone, but hypothetically if there was a decent prospect involved, you'd have to consider it.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's hard to say, but the Braves picked up BA's #71 prospect last year (Touki Toussaint) by eating the $10.1 mil remaining on Bronson Arroyo's deal, so I might guess your estimate is a little low. Depends on the prospect, of course.
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