Parker Hageman

With the calendar flipping to 2014 tomorrow, Twins fans must be eager to hurry that process along. After all, the previous season was a mire with yet another 90+ loss year on the ledger. Although no one should be criticized for having his attention wander from the team before spring training, there were still plenty of entertaining moments to remember - little things that make the entire sport of baseball beautiful. Below are the Top 10 moments from 2013. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Honorable Mention: Glen Perkins Pitches With Fly Down Just what it sounds like. (h/t cjzero) 10. Aaron Hicks: Card-Carrying Member of the NRA He has to be when you see his gun. It should be no surprise considering teams were thinking about drafting him as a pitcher out of high school where he threw upper 90s cheddar on the mound. Turns out that velocity translates well to the outfield. At Yankee Stadium, after letting the ball carom off the wall, Hicks caught up with it just short of the warning track and delivered a bullet to third to nail the Yankees’ Vernon Wells who was looking for the extra base. http://www-thescore.s3.amazonaws.com/images/128017/original.gif?1373685892 Wells was just one of Hicks’ nine outfield assists in his rookie year -- that was the highest number of assists for someone with so few innings (701 innings). (h/t @cjzero) 9. Oswaldo Arcia Tries To Bo Jackson His Bat, Fails All rookies have a tendency to struggle as they adapt to a higher level of pitching. Oswaldo Arcia was no different. While demonstrating mouthwatering power at times, he also went through a long stretch where he could not make contact with a pitched ball. With it, apparently, came frustration. In Tampa, Arcia could not take it anymore. After another K, he tried to take it out on his bat but the bat -- presumably not weakened by contact -- wouldn’t give. (h/t Me and my Vine) 8. Darin Mastroianni’s Belt-Busting Grab Mastroianni, who spent a significant portion of the year sidelined with a foot injury, showed that he can cover a sizable amount of real estate. In limited time, he made plays on 32 of the 34 balls in his zone while playing outfield. Additionally, he managed to snag eight more that were outside of the typical fielder’s zone - including this one in Houston. While thwarting this should-be extra base hit, Mastroianni lays out on the warning track. In doing so, the coarse Texas dirt did more damage to his belt than a night at Old Country Buffet. Mastroianni was saved by borrowing the pants holder-upper from a member of his bullpen: http://media.giphy.com/media/qIVLNZgDkH3a0/giphy.gif Just a reminder that baseball is the only one of the four major sports to have belts as a part of their uniforms. (h/t Giphy.com) 7. Brian Dozier’s Glorious Hair After an unsuccessful season at shortstop in 2012, Brian Dozier moved one position to the left. There, he displayed solid glove work and, occasionally, flashy plays like this one. http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2013-07-22/4fbe6b3b-dcf8-45b2-b295-d5d01a72c81f_792979101.gif OK, so it is less about the actual catch and more about the Hollywood hair. This must be female baseball fan’s equivalent of watching Phoebe Cates climb out of the pool in slow motion in Fast Time At Ridgemont High. Makes you feel all funny inside; like climbing the ropes in gym class. It is clear he lathers, rinses and repeats. Repeating is so important. (h/t: Yahoo Sports Big League Stew) 6. Joe Mauer Is An Athletic Freak The study of measuring a catcher’s contributions has grown exponentially among the statistics crowd with the proliferation of framing studies and data. While the jury may still be out on how much value those extra strikes can provide a team, having an athletic freak of nature wearing the tools of ignorance still pays dividends. Case in point, with a relay from Hicks-to-Florimon-to-home gone awry Mauer, a towering former football and basketball recruit out of high school, leaps in the air to secure the errant throw and adjusts to tag out Boston’s Stephen Drew at the plate. Simply amazing to watch. http://25.media.tumblr.com/1b955bbd97d21fdfb481e9f235111d1c/tumblr_mmepjgAkJy1ro5xweo1_400.gif With the move to first base set for 2014, Mauer should be remembered as one of the game’s most athletically gifted catchers because of plays like this. If that is not enough, surely this honorable mention will convince you that he has not just a sixth but a seventh sense for the game of baseball: http://mlb.mlb.com/assets/images/custom/tumblr_mo4u1rJw0i1ro5xweo1_400_tl8m82rv.gif (h/t Drawn To MLB) 5. Justin Morneau High-Fives Nobody Justin Morneau had a career-high streak of 168 at-bats without a homer when he busted out with a long one on June 20. When he returned to the dugout, his teammates gave the veteran the big snub. Rather than succumb to their silent treatment, Morneau threw out a bunch of air fives. http://24.media.tumblr.com/4f8041853d4ee14d411b3eb43c930dfb/tumblr_mooadxEIyH1ro5xweo1_400.gif Traded to Pittsburgh at the waiver deadline, Morneau has signed with the Rockies and rejoined former teammate Michael Cuddyer who, according to former Twins teammates, distributes an extremely painful high five. (h/t Drawn to MLB) 4. Ballboy Makes Second Best Catch At Target Field Paul Neshek, former Twins reliever Pat Neshek’s brother is patrolling the left field line. The White Sox' Alexi Ramirez laces a liner that is destined for a fan’s face. Neshek leaps from his perch and snares that mofo before it can do damage. Look at the clearance he gets in order to intercept this missile. Your browser does not support iframes. http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=28195859[/media] (h/t MLB.com) 3. Jared Burton Knocks Out Brian Duensing Oh, the fun you have in a bullpen. http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18wsij6rrs5gmgif/ku-xlarge.gif Apparently, former teammate Matt Maloney had the idea of miming a knockout punch in the bullpen and so when Chris Colabello (Italian for “Beautiful Cola”) launched a drive that would clear the Twins bullpen in Chicago, Brian Duensing told Burton to throw a punch, to which Burton obliged. Naturally, the results were amazing. (h/t Deadspin) 2. Trevor Plouffe Goes Ass Over Tea Kettle In Kansas City For A Foul Ball For good reason, Plouffe takes a lot of heat for his defense at third. This was not one of those times. http://25.media.tumblr.com/d4045af080a521b040774f74dd46b465/tumblr_mr45xe8f091ro5xweo1_400.gif (h/t Drawn To MLB) 1. Chris Parmelee Makes Twins Fan Lose His Effin’ Mind Chris Parmelee, giving Justin Morneau a reprieve at first, chased a Milwaukee Brewer foul ball towards the camera well near the Twins’ dugout. The ball appeared well out of reach of Parmelee’s grasp, easily being a play that could have been given up on. Instead, Parmelee superman’d himself over the padded gate, over the three concrete steps down and somehow found the ball as he landed at the feet of FSN’s Marney Gellner. It was a play that was made with complete disregard for human life. http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr05/2013/5/30/12/anigif_enhanced-buzz-10353-1369931506-13.gif OK, so full confession: the reason this was - in my opinion - the best play of 2013 was because I saw the play up close and personal. With seats on the rail, the foul ball tailed off the field of play and was headed directly to where I was sitting. In fact, I believe I called it in the air. The ball, however, landed a few feet short of my outstretched hands. Fixated on the ball the entire time, I completely missed Parmelee’s approach. Out of my peripheral vision, I saw a white blur diving and gloving the ball before landing hard on the concrete surface below. Outside of seeing my daughter being born, it was the single-greatest thing I have ever eyewitnessed. Thus, I made this face: http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr05/2013/5/30/12/anigif_enhanced-buzz-10359-1369931744-19.gif Buzzfeed later dubbed it a “Mom made Pizza Rolls” face. I defy any of you to watch the play from the same spot I had and not to have had the same reaction. (Bonus fact: That’s my Dad doing the double-barrelled fist-pump next to me.) (h/t Buzzfeed)

A "No Geek Week", Twins Daily's Parker Hageman fills in for John Bonnes and joins Aaron Gleeman at 612Brew.com to talk Twins. Topics include partying at The Gleemanor, Alex Meyer the substitute teacher, dropping Darin Mastroianni from the 40-man roster, throwing televisions off balconies, hypothesizing about Masahiro Tanaka, the Hall of Fame and Jack Morris, Kurt Suzuki threatening Josmil Pinto, and mailbag questions from listeners. You can listen by clicking below, download us from iTunes or Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Gleeman & The Geek: Episode 126

In their efforts to repair the damage of three straight 90-loss seasons, the Twins front office acted decisively this offseason. And, sure, maybe part of this decisive plan was to steal an idea from the Blues Brothers and get the band back together, adding a name that (at the very least) will remind fans of happier times. Following a two year hiatus of not [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]having a player named Jason Kubel on the roster, Terry Ryan rectified that by signing one to a minor league deal. In his time away from the organization, Kubel had a solid 2012 with Arizona but a fall-off-the-face-of-the-earth 2013 season saw him get cut from the Diamondbacks and finish the year in Cleveland. The offensive slide stems from a lack of contact, specifically when facing fastballs, and injuries likely played a factor in that decline. The Twins are making the bet that Kubel can rebound from the atrocity he committed last season. While Kubel’s deal comes with no guarantee he will see time in Minnesota, the free agent told sources that he felt he had a better opportunity to play with the Twins than with another team which offered a major league deal. Because Kubel will conceivably fill the role of left-handed outfielder/designated hitter in the lineup, Ryan Doumit’s role was marginalized. Doumit, who also had a solid 2012 but a far worse 2013 season, said that because of concussions and age, he was less interested in catching and wanted to spend more time in another position. The Twins now had a cheaper version of Doumit in Kubel. This redundancy on the roster allowed the Twins to pursue a trade of Doumit. The Braves, in need of a catcher/outfielder, traded their system’s fourth-best prospect, left-handed starter Sean Gilmartin. Furthermore, if projection systems are in any way reliable (they are not) Fangraphs.com’s Oliver projection suggests that Kubel (.724 OPS) will slightly outperform Doumit (.710) offensively. In theory the swap gives Minnesota added depth at the high-end of the minor leagues, saves $500,000 in Doumit’s salary and gives the potential for greater production on the major league team. More Top '13 Stories: #13 - Twins in the WBC #12 - Drew Butera Traded

Consider it phase two of Terry Ryan’s sinister plan, Getting The Band Back Together: According to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins have inked Jason Kubel to a minor league deal. In November Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino wrote that outfielder Jason Kubel, who was released by the Cleveland Indians earlier in the day, would be interested in a reunion with the Minnesota Twins. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] "Yeah, for sure,” Kubel said. “I loved it here. I really miss the guys. I had a great relationship with Gardy, Andy (pitching coach Rick Anderson), (Joe) Vavra — all the coaches and the few players I remember that are still there. I love the guys over there.” Kubel certainly loved the guys, but he had a different feeling towards the ballpark. When he departed to Arizona as a free agent, he reminisced about Target Field: "It's no secret that a lot of people didn't like Target Field to hit there," he said. "I just feel like here, I can use the whole field and still put up power numbers instead of trying to pull the ball in the air to get it out. I did get in trouble trying to do that too often, and it showed in the numbers." But he cannot blame Target Field for his 2013 woes. In his first year in Phoenix, Kubel thrived. He posted the second-best OPS of his career. He mashed 30 taters. He justified the first-half of his two-year, $15 million dollar contract. And then? Pfft. Nothing. What happened? One of Kubel's biggest issues in 2013 was his inability to handle fastballs. According to ESPN Stats & Info, in 2012 Kubel hit .298/.368/.616 with 20 home runs and a whopping .309 well-hit average. That dropped considerably in 2013 when he finished the year hitting .261/.315/.400 with just 3 home runs and a well-hit average of .171 off of fastballs. (2012) (2013) Opponents attacked the upper portion of the zone more in 2013 (37% versus 30% in 2012) and Kubel’s lack of bat speed resulted in far less contact and power output. While Kubel may be a bounce back candidate after his 2013 season, the Twins are not in need of a corner outfielder or designated hitter at this point. Oswaldo Arcia, in theory, can provide just as much production as the former Twin can. Nevertheless, the minor league agreement provides the Twins will some needed veteran depth without clogging the major league roster with additional corner outfielders and designated hitters.

On Tuesday afternoon the Minnesota Twins introduced the most expensive free agent in the organization’s history. Outside on the scoreboard, high above the team’s dormant field, a graphic splashed welcoming Ricky Nolasco to Twins Territory. At the press conference cameras rolled, questions were lobbed and Nolasco (with his impressively manicured beard) sat between general manager Terry Ryan and his agent, Matt Sosnick, having hopes pinned on him that he will help dig the franchise out from the bottom of the division. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] New uniform, smiles, handshakes, photo ops. Ryan spoke to Nolasco’s workhorse pedigree, his ability to miss bats and his character. His agent compared him to the muscle cars the pitcher loves to collect. Media members peppered him with inquiries ranging from his thoughts on the move to the American League to if the taste of the postseason with the Dodgers whet his appetite for more playoff action. When the song and dance ended, I tapped Nolasco for a quick sidebar on his pitching style. Based on research conducted at the beginning of the offseason, I asked Nolasco if his 2013 success coincided with his increased frequency of pitching inside to opponents. “I think it is a big part of any starting pitcher’s game,” Nolasco answer, reciting pitching wisdom imparted from grizzled pitching coaches to pitchers for generations. “I think you’ve got to pitch inside and open up the outside part of the plate for later on in the game. That’s always the process you want to do as a starting pitcher.” Hard in, soft away. Live to pitch another day. That is the mantra of pitchers everywhere since the dawn of the game. However, a few seasons ago Nolasco and his coaches with the Marlins noticed he had been drifting away from this technique and hitters were able to extend their arms, a sure sign that pitches were further off the hitter’s belt and more in the swing zone. That is when he made a minor change. Maybe it was simply intended to be a placebo effect to raise his awareness, but Nolasco, at the behest of his pitching coach, shifted a half-foot on the rubber toward the first base side. “One of my pitching coaches in Miami, Randy St. Clair, was the one who suggested it,” he offered. “Obviously it has been a big positive influence for me and my pitching style and a big change helping me get back to where I should be able to pitch numbers-wise.” The results were noticeable. From 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco held a 4.76 ERA with a hardy 1.40 WHIP. Following the change, he has had a 3.71 ERA with a tidier 1.23 WHIP. “[st. Clair] told me a lot of the times when I was getting in trouble and getting hit was when things were just barely coming back on the plate so he said that maybe if we move over six to eight inches on that side it that would prevent those two or three pitches that were hurting me a game, that would keep them out and away from the middle of the plate a little more. And he was right.” Indeed. Prior to last year’s trade deadline, Fangraph.com’s Jeff Sullivan showed visual evidence of Nolasco’s rubber shift with Pitch F/X graphs and screen grabs. In the span from 2011 to July 2012, Nolasco’s strikeout rate had fallen significantly to 16% and his well-hit average had jumped to .217. Post-shift, the strikeout rate climbed back to league-average (19%) and the well-hit average dropped to .173. It was like Nolasco was a new pitcher, or at the very least his pre-2011 self again. Perhaps the success goes back to working inside. According to ESPN Stats & Info, since August of 2012 he’s been able to lock in on the inner-half of the plate more with all his pitches. Between 2011 and July 2012, Nolasco’s pitches were hitting the inside portion of the zone just 23% of the time (compared to the 28% league average). Since? He’s been going inside at a 29% rate and the overall numbers are hard to argue with. Welcome to Minnesota Ricky. The weather’s about to get nasty. Remember to stay inside.

There are plenty of reasons to celebrate this impending Phil Hughes deal as a coup for the Twins. After all, Hughes is a relatively young pitcher who has potential upside and, as a fly ball pitcher, he finally gets to leave the launching pad in the Bronx (not to mention, away from the beasts of the east). For an average annual value of $8M, a value he has eclipsed in three of the past five seasons according to Fangraphs.com, it is hard to find a downside. In terms of the configurations of Yankee Stadium and Target Field, there’s no question that Yankee Stadium’s layout vastly favors the hitter, particularly for the left-handed swingers. In the Bronx, the right field porch seemingly looms just a few feet past the infield while in Minnesota, Target Field’s right field walls require distance and height to clear safely. So it should not come as a surprise that, in terms of true home runs distance measured by HitTrackerOnline.com, Yankee Stadium’s average home run distance has been 386.2 feet while Target Field has been at 394.1 feet. As Hughes’s former Yankee teammate Nick Swisher once observed about the Twins’ home park, it takes a man to put one out to the right field seats. The natural conclusion as applied to Hughes is that the transition from Yankee Stadium (where 76 of his career 112 home runs have been served) to Target Field will yield significant improvements to his results. In theory, even if a few of the would-be home runs in New York become off-the-wall doubles in Minnesota, Hughes’ totals figure to be better. While the statistically inclined community will nod at that hypothesis, those in New York who have witnessed Hughes’ career in person -- both those who emphasize stats and otherwise -- portray him differently. Part of that may be due to the overhyped expectations of a prospect coupled with various injuries that have taken him out of commission. Nationally, Baseball Prospectus’ annuals have documented a telling curve on how Hughes has been viewed. In the 2006 edition, there was excitement surrounding what could be a 20-year-old starter in the Yankees organization who had the potential to reach Double-A, a considerable feat in the deep New York system. By 2013 the staff from BP summarized the sentiments by writing “If Yankees fans could only forget that Hughes was ever expected to be an ace, they might be happier with him.” Sandwiched between 2006 and 2013, the analyses focused on Hughes’ oft-injured resume and swimming upstream against the hitter-friendly environs of Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium or no Yankee Stadium, when hitters have connected, the ball has jumped off their bats. Since 2012, his well-hit average against of .202 is much higher than the league average of .179. While balls have not become souvenirs on the road as frequently, teams have been able to knock him around during stretches of his career which is why he has not exactly matched his prospect hype. The scouting report on Hughes: As goes his fastball, so goes Hughes. His fastball has been unquestionably a solid weapon for him over the last two seasons. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he has had the best strike percentage with his fastball among all qualified pitchers at 72.2% (minimum 500 thrown). Attacking the strike zone is something the Twins coaching staff has encouraged from their pitchers but, unlike the consortium of Twins starters the past several years, Hughes has missed bats with his heater as well as just throwing it over the plate. Since 2012, Hughes' 18.6% miss percentage on his fastball has been the 14th-highest in baseball. To put that in perspective, the rest of the league carries a 14.6% miss percentage on their fastballs. Of course, it is when he does not have the command or hitters don’t miss his fastball that he begins to have issues. Lacking the plus secondary offering to miss bats at a high level, if opponents are able to sit on the fastball, they have hit it hard. In the past two years, hitters have levied a .226 well-hit average off his fastball, compared to the .209 MLB average. Not having a complementary secondary pitch has been frequently cited as the reason Hughes has never accumulated strikeouts in bunches (a career rate of 19%, equaling the MLB average) and why his fastball has so often been launched deep into the New York night. Hughes changed his approach in 2013, eschewing a slow curve that was hit hard for a harder slider to alter his style from a north-south pitcher (fastball/curve) to having a pitch that runs from side-to-side. Previously armed with a cutter, the terrible outcome with that pitch convinced him to reduce its use and he increased the usage of his slider to 23.8%. Early, the results were strong. In the first-half of last season, opponents hit just .160 off the newly resurrected pitch. However, perhaps with the element of surprise removed, in the second-half of the season, hitters began to recognize the slider more and hit .324 on it. So while the upside involves Hughes’ results being improved from pitching in a new home, the downside is that he continues to have a second-pitch identity crisis and has not found a suitable partner for his fastball. The limited success of his repertoire has made critics think he is better suited for the bullpen where his two-pitch combination can thrive in short stints. (Consider this: last season Hughes averaged just five innings per start and, over his career, he has been just a half-inning better.) Where does this leave Hughes’ future with the Twins? Going back to the 2013 Baseball Prospectus comment, it is the hype that clouded the previous judgement on Hughes rather than seeing him for what he is, which is an above average starter. Certainly injuries that have plagued him throughout his professional career could come into play again and his arsenal could give him fits, but he should provide value equal to or exceeding the team-friendly contract over three years even if he simply matches his performance in New York -- in a park environment better suited for his skill set, no less. The Twins should come out winners on this one.

When the New York Mets drafted Mike Pelfrey out of Wichita State with the ninth overall pick in 2005, their scouting department was obviously enamored by his big body, big fastball and big projectability. He would develop a breaking ball and become the ace Flushing had not seen in a while. Of course, the latter never happened for Pelfrey; instead he struggled to find a semblance of a swing-and-miss pitcher, became the embodied disappointment of Mets fans, had his elbow ligament snap and wound up in Minnesota. Quite the different career path than was envisioned for him eight years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, a free agent coming off a middling season (5-13, 5.19 ERA), CBSsports.com’s Jon Heyman, who has a close relationship with agent Scott Boras, reports that the Twins have extended a multi-year offer: So… [slams laptop closed. Goes for a long walk.] This is all confusing. The Twins recognize they have a serious problem with their starting rotation - a rotation that has failed to miss bats at a historic rate in the modern era - but continue to pursue the same type of starting pitcher that has created the problem to begin with. As mentioned before, due to his lack of secondary offerings, even a fully healthy Mike Pelfrey fails to miss bats at even the league average rate. Over his career, he has a swinging strike rate of 5.9% while the rest of the game has been closer to 9%. I thought we had an understanding here. I thought Jack Goin, the Twins’ manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, had sat Terry Ryan down and explained that strikeouts were not only NOT fascist, they were good and that having a lot of them made your starting rotation better. So, why Pelfrey again? The objective should be to look at your 2013 starting rotation real closely then target all the pitchers whose skill sets are the exact opposite. Ok, that may be a large overcorrection but, still, why Pelfrey again? It is entirely possible that Pelfrey’s agent is using Heyman and the Twins to drum up additional interest in his client. After all, the Twins have not confirmed that there is a two-year offer out to Pelfrey right now. That being said, at the end of last year the Twins coaching staff and Terry Ryan lauded Pelfrey’s second-half improvements. Manager Ron Gardenhire said in September that he believed a lot of Pelfrey’s problems in the later part of the year, such has too many 3-2 counts and long delays between pitches, were easily fixable. The Twins said they liked seeing Pelfrey’s velocity increase, which it did from 91.9 in the first-half to 92.7 in the second-half. Gardenhire mentioned specifically that Pelfrey’s secondary pitches improved over the course of the year as his elbow healed, which was true in that opponents had a .700 OPS against his secondary pitches in the first-half while they had a .588 OPS in the second. The biggest thing that may be the key as to why the Twins would entertain the notion of bringing Pelfrey back is the huge swing in a statistic that hides behind paywalls called “well-hit average”. This statistic tries to add description to a pitcher’s (or hitter’s) batted balls that goes beyond just the line drive, ground ball and fly ball categories. Video scouts from various companies such as Inside Edge or BIS log whether that ground ball out was smoked to second or a harmless chopper. In theory, when used in conjunction with a regularly distributed stat like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), it should provide insight as to whether a pitcher’s inflated/deflated BABIP was truly unlucky or not. In Pelfrey’s case, consider the difference on balls in play between the first half of the year and the second half. During the first stretch, Pelfrey was banged around to the tune of .313/.359/.478 over 16 games. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info Department, he carried a well-hit average of .222 -- the highest among all starters with the exception of Joe Blanton (.235). That’s a straight-up beating by hitters. Taking the well-hit average into account, there is no risk of miscategorizing his first-half as “unlucky”. Several things played a factor in these results but a recovering rebuilt elbow was likely the most significant hindrance. Admittedly, Pelfrey lacks the necessary secondary offerings to be a truly effective top-of-the-rotation starter, but his strong assortment of fastballs lacked command post-surgery which should be an expected side effect in Tommy John recoveries. So, after 16 starts and a back strain that took him down for two weeks, Pelfrey actually rebounded quite well over the second half. Over his last 13 games, hitters posted a much improved .284/.356/.374 batting line that was built on a well-hit average of .134, one of the league’s best in the latter portion of the season. I know. That doesn’t feel right, right? I triple-checked to make sure I had the stats sorted correctly. Did hitters really not hit the ball as well off Pelfrey as they did against such pitching dignitaries as Ricky Nolasco (.137), Hasashi Iwakuma (.140) or Francisco Liriano (.143) in the second-half of the season, as the aforementioned well-hit statistic suggests? Several things to mention here: (1) Because this statistic resides mainly behind paywalls, the well-hit average has not been vetted thoroughly by sabr-minded people. This means studies have not been conducted to determine how the well-hit average fluctuates from year-to-year. Is Pelfrey’s second-half decrease a true indication that he was pitching better and that this performance will continue? (2) Even with the significantly improved well-hit average, the end product was an ugly 1-6 record with a rotund 4.76 ERA and a near .300 batting average in the second-half that contributed to the overall blah year. (3) Who knows if the Twins have examined him from this perspective. The organization clearly has access to these reports so they should put this into consideration if thinking about r-signing him. If they have broken it down to this level, I would be more accepting of an eventual Mike Pelfrey re-signing. In the end, going through this exercise reassured me that there is some small, faint glimmer of hope that the notion of bringing back Mike Pelfrey is not a completely bonehead move. If he signs for a two-year, $8M per deal similar to the average annual value of Jason Vargas, Pelfrey has proven in the past that he can be a mid-rotation guy (albeit one without the sexy strikeouts) and the second-half numbers could be indications that he will be that again in 2014. But that’s it, that’s the ceiling: a mid-rotation guy. The Twins rotation and fans need more than that.

Reports from Puerto Rico suggest that Twins prospect Eddie Rosario has tested positive for a banned substance and could cost him a 50-game suspension in 2014. While the reports are still unconfirmed, according to an article in Sport LivePR from November 18, Rosario had informed his winter league team that he tested positive in a recent MLB drug test. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]According to Frankie Thon, the general manager of the team Rosario plays for, Rosario reportedly took some pills during his arm rehabilitation that were on the banned list. Thon also said that Rosario would be allowed to play in the offseason league due to a new agreement between the MLB and the winter leagues. Here is the explanation from the article through Google translation: Rosario spoke with the Puerto Rican website elnuevodia.com and said he was informed of the failed test after playing in the Arizona Fall League. The article also stated that his lawyers are currently appealing the suspension but Rosario believed there is little chance that the decision will be overturned. Rosario also said that the pills he took were they same kind he had taken in 2011 after he was struck in the face with a line drive while in Class A Beloit. The Twins outfield/second base prospect, who was recently named as Baseball Prospectus’ seventh rated prospect in the system, his coming off a solid year in which he hit .302/.350/.460 with 10 home runs and 32 doubles split between New Britain and Fort Myers. There is no official word on Rosario’s status from the Minnesota Twins.

Employment is not difficult to find if you are a moderately successfully and young starting pitcher in major league baseball. As an example, Ricky Nolasco has several four-year offers in discussion and, as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal pointed out this morning, the Twins are making a strong push for his services. In a conversation last week his agent, Matt Sosnick, said Nolasco is seeking a five-year deal. While multiple teams are offering four-year deals it may be the team which submits a fifth year option that lands the free agent. “I look at options more about breaking a stalemate at the end of negotiation,” Sosnick said. “We’re talking to a lot of teams and we’re hoping to get five years on Nolasco. We’re talking with a lot of teams about a deal in the four-year range and what ends up happening is that if no one is willing to go to five year, people will use a club option for a fifth year.” The option year, Sosnick said, basically gives the pitcher some extra money in the form of a buyout but also provides the team an option to retain that pitcher’s services if they so desire. Based on reports that the Twins are making a “strong push” for Nolasco, it would be reasonable to assume the two sides are looking at the four-year plus option deal. Nolasco, who will be 31 in 2014, has been decisively average over his career but is coming off perhaps his best season since his age-25 season in 2008. Over his career, Nolasco’s actual numbers have performed worse than his projected numbers. His career ERA of 4.37 is significantly higher than what his 3.75 expected Fielding Independent rates would suggest. While his peripherals have been strong, his ability to strand runners once they reach base has been sub-par: His 69.2% left-on-base rate has been the sixth-lowest among starters since 2010 (minimum 500 innings pitched); part of the reason behind this is that, with runners on, Nolasco has a .288 average against (10th highest). To his credit, Nolasco’s seen a steady decline in his home run rate in each of the last three years, resulting in a career-low of 0.77 HR/9 this last season. One of the biggest changes in 2013 that may have played a role in this decrease was going inside with his fastball more often. In general Nolasco eschews the fastball (just 47% vs 50% league average frequency) for his secondary offerings, mostly his slider. The slider has been a very good pitch for him despite some scouts suggesting it has not been as sharp as it had been earlier in his career. This past season, he was able to induce more swing-and-misses on it but, judging by the drop in chases out of the zone, does not have the same bite it once did. Durability-wise, he is almost as stalwart as they come. Dating back to 2008, Nolasco has accumulated 1,151.1 innings – the 24th most in baseball over that time – placing him alongside other workhorses. In that stretch, he has no arms issues whatsoever, but a tear in his meniscus (knee) took him out for 46 days in 2010. Naturally, the argument could be made that all that was before he turned thirty and the mileage accumulated early in his career could eventually catch up to him on the wrong side of 30. As Twins general manager Terry Ryan said of signing thirty-year-old pitchers last month: “I’d be very careful. I’d be careful”, he said, reflecting on the free agent market, “Because you know what happens with 30-year-olds.” Ryan’s concern is merited, both because of injury and increasing ineffectiveness. Nolasco’s contract would extend him in Minnesota from his age-31 to age-35 season and while he has not shown any signs of arm problems, there are plenty of examples of breakdown from even the biggest workhorses in the stable. The Twins recently requested Johan Santana’s medical records but Santana, who had been a perennial 200-inning hurler, started to suffer a multitude of ailments at age 32 which kept his innings total from his age-32 to age-34 seasons to just 117 innings. Likewise, effectiveness wanes noticeably as starting pitchers begin to approach their mid-life crisis. According to research produced by Fangraph.com’s Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman, a starting pitcher’s skills begin diminishing after the age of thirty and continue to regress from that point forward: To be clear, this not meant as an indictment of a potential Nolasco signing, simply a warning of the price of doing business in the free agent market. As Ryan mentioned before, his ideal process of team building would be to avoid the aging talent for the younger arms. “In our position I’d rather go after an Alex Meyer, because we are more than one ace away,” Ryan said recently. “We’ve got a lot of work to do. You give me a No. 1 starting pitcher I’ll take him, but we finished 27 games behind the Tigers.” Obviously Nolasco does not project as an ‘ace’ or a number one starter (well, outside of the Twins rotation anyway) but he does provide the team with a valuable upgrade who can be filled in around moving forward. Alex Meyer, who has impressed during his time in Arizona this fall, could develop into the front-of-the-rotation type. With progress, Kyle Gibson has the potential of being a two or three in the rotation. A rotation of Meyer-Gibson-Nolasco plus others in 2015 does not sound too bad. Like Ryan said, the Twins have work to do and beginning with Nolasco is a decent start.

The Twins surprised everyone yesterday but announcing that Joe Mauer has made the decision to relocate to first base after spending his career as one of the game’s best two-way catchers. Comments from Twins general manager Terry Ryan in October made it clear that the team was not totally anticipating Mauer’s move as they entered the planning season for 2014. In his address to the media yesterday, Mauer mentioned that there were occasions that he would take a foul tip and it extremely difficult for him to perform, even mentioning at one point that he had troubles feeling his hands gripping the bat after suffering his concussion. The move early in the offseason will allow the front office to address the issues that arise, namely finding another catcher. On MLBNetwork Radio’s Power Alley yesterday manager Ron Gardenhire shared his thoughts on the decision. In regards to how the decision was made: On how Joe Mauer was handling this: On Mauer’s ability to play first base: On who will replace Mauer behind the plate:

The Minnesota Twins' Dustin Morse announced via Twitter that the Twins will officially move Joe Mauer from catcher to first base for the 2014 season. In October, general manager Terry Ryan told Twins Daily in his offseason interview that the team was not planning for Mauer to move away from behind the plate and the transition from catching to first was ultimately Mauer's decision. "I'm not preparing for anything different than we prepared for last year," Ryan said. "That decision's still coming down to whether or not he wants to catch for sure. The good thing is he's, I would say, he's 95 percent right now, which is good. That's a decision that's going to come down on whether or not he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there. But right now I'm preparing for him to be back there." The move obviously opens up questions as to the team's plans for catcher in 2014. Veteran Ryan Doumit also suffered a concussion that removed him from the position at the end of the year and Josmil Pinto, while promising in September, is still learning. Although Pinto's character and coachability have been lauded, there still is work defensively, said Ryan. "There were days that I was a little concerned. With any kid that comes up, you're not going to have a polished product," Ryan noted. In addition to Doumit and Pinto, Ryan mentioned minor leaguer Eric Fryer as a player who contributed positively in 2013 (albeit at the minor league level) and there are several free agent catching options available on the market. The team's official press release cites that while Mauer is symptom free from the concussion suffered late 2013, the increasingly inherent dangers of the position necessitated the move.

Baseball agent Matt Sosnick speaks strongly of loyalty, honesty and trust in his industry. His agency, Sosnick Cobbe Sports, was grown from scratch in the hills above the San Francisco Bay and relies on building relationships, sticking with clients regardless of on-field performance and adheres to principles such as automatically dropping players who engage in detrimental activity like domestic violence. He discusses his clients as friends rather than means to a paycheck. Character above all. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It probably should come as no surprise then that he holds the Minnesota Twins operations in high regard for similar reasons. When asked his perception of the organization, Sosnick raved. “First of all, I love the Twins,” he admitted. “I obviously have had lots of players who have run through there the past few years. I have [Josh] Willingham and [Ryan] Doumit. I have a very close relationship with both [assistant GM] Rob Antony and [vice president of player development] Mike Radcliff and there’s no GM that I respect more than Terry Ryan.” That may seem like an odd response from a person whose livelihood is tied to how much a team is willing pay for one of his clients and, so far, the Twins have not been exactly a blank check. In fact, Willingham’s 2012 contract has been the richest free agent contract the team has distributed to date. What is interesting is that had Willingham’s home been further west, he may never have been a Twin to begin with. When fans wonder why their team didn’t sign a particular free agent, there are factors that go beyond just the dollars and cents. As a free agent after the 2011 season, Sosnick fielded an offer from a West Coast team that was superior to that of the Twins. But Willingham, who calls Alabama home, opted to sign with Minnesota because it was in closer proximity to his family and turned down more money in the process. Willingham’s reign as the team’s highest compensated free agent may come to an end this winter and one of Sosnick’s other clients could be the one to dethrone him. Among the Sosnick Cobbe client list are Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Randy Messenger -- three pitchers in who the Twins have had varying degrees of interest. Under different circumstances, Johnson could have been the headliner of the offseason. At just 30 years old, Johnson has battled both shoulder inflammation (2011) and elbow issues (2013) that have curbed his innings over the past three seasons. More importantly, it has curbed teams’ appetite for doling out a large contract.. “He’s probably got the highest upside of any free agent pitcher,” says Sosnick, “but when you factor in the amount of games he started the last few years and the amount of different injuries he’s had you realize, in our case, our choice was to take a shot at a two or three-year deal or take a shot a one-year where we rebuild his value. There’s no question that we are going to go after a one-year and try to rebuild his value because he’s going to be treated as an injury liability -- even though I think he’s totally healthy right now -- but I understand that mindset.” While Johnson could profile as a top of the rotation arm, does a pitcher with his injury history make sense for the organization? Mike Radcliff does not seem to think so. According to the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino, Radcliff said that if Johnson’s asking price is $10 million or more, the club would likely pass. That said, the Twins severely lack an ace and Johnson could be that guy. As an agent, would Sosnick ever try to convince a team that Johnson, who is coming off a bad conventional season but demonstrated decent peripherals that may indicate a positive future, is the right fit for them? “I find that too presumptuous on my part. Am I really going to convince Mike Radcliff that his scouting analyses of a player are off because I tell him something -- given the fact that I’ve never scouted a player in my life and Mike’s done it professionally his whole life? I find the thought distasteful and if I put myself in the reverse situation I would be insulted. That’s not what I do.” Perhaps more conducive to the team’s long term vision is Sosnick’s other former Marlins pitcher, Nolasco. “[Nolasco’s] probably is the most sure thing in the marketplace and that comes without a qualifying offer. That’s a huge thing for a team to sign a guy who you can pencil in for 200 innings a year, never gets hurt and you don’t have to give up a draft pick for him.” Not having to surrender a draft pick means a lot to teams that, unlike the Twins, have unprotected first round picks which could make him more desirable. Sosnick says he and Nolasco are seeking a five-year deal, but currently are speaking with numerous teams about four years. During his interview for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Ryan flinched at the thought of signing 30-year-old pitchers, stating that those over that age have a tendency to break down. With Nolasco seeking up to five years, his contract length may cause the team to balk. Still, as Sosnick hinted to Berardino, the Twins have expressed interest in the right-hander. And as Sosnick said there could be the possibility of using a club option in the contract to bridge the gap and protect the team in the event of an injury. The last notable free agent pitcher in the Sosnick Cobbe stable is Randy Messenger, who is coming off a strong stint in Japan. “Outside of [Masahiro Tanaka] who needs to get posted, Messenger’s a free agent in the States this year and he led the Japanese league last year in strikeouts, innings pitched and games started. He has really strong peripherals and ERA the last two years in Japan and was a totally dominant guy this year. He’s not a Tanaka but he’s the next best thing.” The Twins flirted with Messenger a bit last offseason but Messenger ultimately returned to Japan and had another strong season which could be emphasized since that Japanese league switched to a new baseball which increased the offensive production. Did Messenger notice the difference? “He did say that he felt like pitching to an ERA in the 2.00’s this year was more challenging than the two years before that. He felt like ERA-wise, it affected the ERA by a quarter of a point. So a 2.90 was about the equivalent of 2.65 in the past.” Messenger could turn into a Colby Lewis who refined his style in Japan before returning to the Texas Rangers and putting up impressive numbers. Maybe more importantly to a team not looking spend as much on one starting pitcher, Messenger should not command as much as Nolasco in dollars or years. When it comes to discussing contracts with the Twins, the front office avoids lengthy contracts with free agent pitchers. Still, Sosnick respects them all the same. “The Twins are run by the three guys I know -- Terry [Ryan], Rob [Antony] and Mike Radcliff -- and all three of them would be great GMs anywhere right now. They are great evaluators of talent, nice people, easy to do business with and honest. You won’t find three more honest guys then those three guys. The Twins are not as easy to do business with financially as the Yankees or Dodgers, they don’t have the same deep pockets, but we keep sending our guys to the Twins because they are honest, honorable people. The front office represents baseball as well as anybody does.” Sosnick’s relationship with the Twins organization goes beyond just his major league clients. In 2009, the Walnut Creek-based agency was representing who some scouts considered to be the best player to come from Europe in 16-year-old Max Kepler. There was plenty of interest in the toolsy, six-foot-four outfielder who was just a few months removed from growing his first facial hair. “When Max Kepler was out there,” Sosnick reminisced, “we had an offer that was higher than what the Twins’ final offer was and we had him go to the Twins because we really believed in their player development and a lot of that had to do with our relationship with Mike at the time.” Kepler has advanced slowly in the minor league system. At 20 years old he finished his first season at low-A (albeit injury-abbreviated) and has performed well in the Arizona Fall League despite unattractive numbers. As Baseball America’s John Manuel noted a few weeks ago the Twins expect to see the large statured Kepler add some power to his repertoire through additional conditioning this offseason resulting in more over-the-fence distance in 2014. In just a few seasons, Kepler could be patrolling a corner outfield spot in a Twins uniform and, reflecting back, Sosnick is happy with their decision to sign with Minnesota. “Kepler went to Minnesota because we like their player development,” he said, “we felt like they would do the best job of assimilating a 16-year-old from Germany. We made the right choice. He went to high school during the day and played in the afternoon and the Twins bent over backwards to make him as comfortable as possible. And it just reinforced the decision that we made.” Sosnick’s opinion of the Twins’ organization may or may not be shared throughout his industry. Then again, Sosnick’s approach does not seems shared by the rest of his industry. He and his agency remain committed to doing the best for the clients and place them in ideal situations -- like Willingham’s desire to remain closer to his family or considering Kepler’s comfort level -- rather than the ones that garner the most dollars.

As plain as the nose on your face, the Twins could clearly see that a sizeable portion of their 2013 troubles was a direct result of the team’s rotation. “Not missing bats and big impact” could have been a mantra of the starting five, or at least a bestselling bumper sticker for a select number of the fan base, which thrives on the pessimism. The evidence of the staff’s lack of strikeouts is clear to anyone who does a cursory search of Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference. However, one telling stat that does not show up on the regular sites is the “well-hit average” which ESPNtrumedia carries. This statistic measures how well-struck a ball was and is an indication of whether a pitcher is able to keep hitters from shooting rockets all over the field. In 2013, major league pitchers carried a well-hit average of .164 while the league’s best staff in this category, the Pittsburgh Pirates, maintained a season low of .141. On the opposite end of the spectrum was the Minnesota Twins, who carried a girthy .194 well-hit average. One reason behind this obliteration could involve the staff’s approach. It should come as no surprise to those who watched any of the Twins pitchers last year and kept an eye on the radar gun readings that the speed numbers did not impress anyone. The Twins starters averaged 90 on their fastball. Just a tick below them was the Atlanta Braves’ staff that averaged 89.9 with the cheese. Yet, unlike the Twins, the Braves’ staff held a pristine .150 well-hit average – the fifth-best in the game last year. So the pitching woes cannot be entirely explained simply by lack of velocity – but it could possibly be explained by the lack of velocity in critical locations. Graham Goldbeck, a data analyst from Sportsvision (the company that runs the F/X systems – Pitch, Hit and Field), has culled through the 600,000-odd ball-in-play results captured by the Hit F/X technology and shared some of his findings with the SABR conference this past March. What Goldbeck found was that the vast majority of home run contact is produced out in front of the plate. Intuitively, Goldbeck’s findings found that fastball contact occurs later in the zone while off-speed contact happens further in front. Strategically, pitchers typically locate their off-speed and breaking balls most often on the lower-half or outside of the strike zone to avoid the type of contact that would result in souvenirs (save for the occasional get-me-over curves). Be it because they were attempting to pump strikes or simply because they failed to spot their secondary offerings (as seemed the case with Scott Diamond and Vance Worley) the Minnesota Twins allowed a league-high .461 slugging percentage on “soft” pitches (those that average 81-mph). Below is the velocity heat map for the entire major leagues, the well-hit average-leading Pittsburgh Pirates and, finally, the Twins, with the worst well-hit average in the game. (MLB) (Pittsburgh Pirates) (Minnesota Twins) What you see with the Twins’ velocity heat map is that a high percentage of the “slow” offerings (curves, changes, etc as indicated by the green coloring), are falling in the middle of the zone. This, when considered in conjunction with Goldbeck’s findings, is some dangerous living. One metric that examines, at a glance, how frequently a pitcher is in or out of the zone with a pitch is ESPNtrumedia’s “Paint” statistic. Basically, paint will measure the shortest distance in inches from a pitch to the edge of the strike zone (in any direction). On average, MLB pitchers keep their “slow” offerings approximately one inch outside of the zone. Pittsburgh’s staff – led by breaking ball enthusiasts in AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano – threw their soft pitches an inch-and-a-half away from the zone (-1.6). Meanwhile the Twins starters threw their soft offerings less than an inch away (-0.9). This means that a significant portion of these pitches were located in a very hittable region. As the Twins attempt to fix the rotation this winter, a key component of that could be identifying talent which has different approach than last year’s staff had. Namely, pitchers able to keep their “soft” pitches out of the middle of the zone. Those available include the likes of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir – both of whom attack the strike zone with their fastball and supplement it with below-the-zone breaking pitches. On the other hand, pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes tend to allow their “soft” offerings to hang up in the zone, leading to above-average well-hit averages in 2013.