Parker Hageman

Fixed.

KSTP's Darren Wolfson tweets that the Twins have been inquiring on right-handed starter Ryan Dempster. The 35-year-old Dempster had averaged 206 innings per season since converting back into a starter with the Cubs in 2008. In over 800 innings, he had a 3.81 ERA and a 758-to-308 K-to-BB ratio. Of course, this season he failed to reach that 200 inning mark and struggled in Texas after a mid-season trade, which is not necessarily a good sign at his age. His velocity has dropped another few notches but thanks to a vicious slider, he still misses bats regularly. As Wolfson notes, "inquiring" is the operative word as the Twins will be inquiring on any or all starting pitchers with a pulse this offseason. Still, how do you feel about a potential Dempster acquisition?

It's Twins TalkerS...with an "S".

David O' Brian, Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Constitution Journal, says its so. Also adds that the Twins are concerned about replacing that right-handed bat. What say you? Trade Willingham?

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1154-Twins-Talkers-Your-Twitter-Questions

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2634[/ATTACH]Rather than spew out some analysis based on hot stove rumors and theories (which I've already done on Shaun Marcum and Kevin Youkilis, by the way), I thought I would take the opportunity to field some burning questions from the Twins Daily followers via Twitter. On to your questions: Who will be the Twins starting rotation on Opening Day? [@MichaelRHerman] As the Twins have said since the season started winding down in September, Scott Diamond is the only pitcher guaranteed a spot in next year’s rotation. Outside of Diamond, here’s what I envision happening at this point: I see the Twins re-signing Scott Baker, signing one mid-to-low free agent and then trading for a starter. Best optimistic guess at this point? Here’s what I would like to see: 1: James Shields 2: Scott Baker 3: Shaun Marcum/Jeremy Guthrie/Joe Blanton 4: Scott Diamond 5: Internal candidate (Liam Hendriks/Kyle Gibson/Samuel Deduno/Brian Duensing) How’s that? Think there’s any real chance of trading for a strong starter like Buehrle or Shields? [@christopherokey] More so this year than in previous years. I believe the front office is under some pressure from ownership to improve the team in order to avoid seeing a historic decline in revenue during the first five seasons of a new ballpark. Now, I do not believe these to be Steinbrenner-esque directives (“Go out and get be the best-damn pitcher available, money is no object.”) from ownership but Terry Ryan will likely wind up trading a long-time Twin (Denard Span, possibly) and/or someone from the farm system in order to get that piece. Of course, it also matters too what the opposing teams thinks their commodities are worth in return. As much as people like to think the Rays need to unload Shields, they are already shaving off a substantial portion of their payroll (upwards of $20 million), so there is not a need to jettison the pitchers who has thrown the third-most innings in the last three seasons. Rays will likely be looking for a solid return for Shields who has a reasonable $10.25 million left on his contract in addition to a $12 million 2014 team option. I personally like the idea of a Shields acquisition (as you can see by my prediction above) but I just don’t know if the Twins have enough or are willing to part with enough to get him. On the other hand, Buehrle, who has been amazingly consistent and durable for his career, could come less of a ransom than Shields. However, the Marlins have him locked in through 2015 and -- while he is owed a reasonable $11 million in 2013 -- he has $18 million and $19 million coming to him in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as he enters his late-30s. I’m not sure the Twins want to trade away a prime asset for those latter years. Why does Mauer hate hitting home runs? [@DanaWessel] Like most real Minnesotans, Joe Mauer would love to put his head down and just go about his business without all the hoopla. Home runs clearly put undue attention on him while circling the bases from all those cheering fans at the game. Real Minnesotans like Mauer would prefer to slap singles and avoid the showboating. In reality, there is a lot that goes why the sudden spike in 2009 and the complete inability to poke a few shots in to the stands every now and then. First is the external factor of the ballparks which played a significant role in both the increase and the decline. At the Metrodome in 2009 Mauer was feasting on the front row of the left field bleacher seats – hitting 16 of his 28 home runs in that direction. When the Twins moved to Target Field, the outdoor elements and dimensions became extremely restrictive for that kind of power. A ball hit to the right-center gap or center field has difficulty leaving the park. Secondly, his on-going knee issues have undoubtedly drained some power, reducing the amount of drive produced from his lower-half. One interesting note: three of Mauer’s home runs this year have been right down the right field line, not far off of the foul pole. Only one of his home runs dating back to 2008 had been in that region. Perhaps he is starting to figure out what needs to be done in order to hit home runs at Target Field. With another offseason to heal and the additional time away from catching could equate to more “dingers” in 2013. That said don’t expect a big jump, maybe 15 at the most next year. That’s not what most fans want to hear, but Mauer still provides plenty of value with his ability to avoid making outs in over 40% of his plate appearances (one of four hitters in the league this year to do so). Why do former Twins do better outside of the Twins system? (Dickey, Hardy, Lohse, etc) [@brandon_mack] I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, there are some players who realize their potential after leaving the organization but it is not because of something the team is or is not doing with these players. Most of the time it the improvement is up to the individual not the organization. What’s more is that in the case of the three players you named, other organizations could also claim the same thing. In the case of R.A. Dickey, he was still very much attempting to refine his knuckleball – a pitch he had just picked up two seasons before arriving to the Twins. He did not have his mastery of knuck then, rarely getting opponents to chase the pitch out of the strike zone or induce silly-looking swings. Both the Rangers and the Brewers gave up on Dickey. J.J. Hardy was not completely healthy (which may or may not have been a testament to the training staff) and he did not focus on pulling the ball (which may or may not have been hitting coach related). When he got to Baltimore, he got healthy, got focused on turning on pitches and was in an environment that was more conducive to hitting home runs. With Lohse, both the Reds and the Phillies had Lohse without reaping the same benefits that the Cardinals just had with his 2012 season. In short, I do not believe there is some internal issues that is causing the Twins to fail to identify future performance – at least, no more so than any other team. Who is the best long-term option at 1B? Morneau, Parmelee or other. [@MikeAmundsen] With Justin Morneau in his early 30’s and teeming with various injuries, it’s not him. Hulking first baseman with injury tendencies do not age well – in fact it typically accelerates. Take Travis Hafner, for example. Until the age of 30, Pronk was having an outstanding career and even receiving MVP votes. After 30, his big body began to breakdown rapidly and frequently, resulting in a significant decline in his numbers: Age 25-30: 112 games per year, .290/.393/.552, 142 HRs Age 31-35: 86 games per year, .259/.353/.436, 59 HRs Because of that, I do not see the Twins retaining Morneau beyond his current contract. Parmelee is still young, intriguing but is unproven over the course of an entire season at the major league level. His 2012 season at Rochester -- one in which he had the league’s second-highest isolated power average (minimum 250 plate appearances) – raising eyebrows that he can develop into a player with some legit power. As Terry Ryan said in the Offseason Handbook, the Twins appear committed to putting Parmelee in the lineup somewhere this year. It may be in right to begin with, but after next season, he could be the team’s first baseman for the next several years. Of course, the real key to the Twins long-term plans at first base will be Mauer. Already seeing some time at first, he has looked comfortable at the defensive-side of the position and could eventually be there for the duration of his contract once squatting is out of the question. Who are the number one suitors for [Denard] Span? Does Gibson start the season with the big league club? [@dropshotbob] It looks like the Rays maybe the top suitors for Span. Tampa has not outright expressed interest, but Span is certainly a logical fit, what with his good defense, good plate discipline and good contract, plus, because B.J. Upton is likely to leave via free agency, Span is almost a natural target. If he doesn’t end up there, Atlanta is another team looking for center field help. Unless something happens to Kyle Gibson between now and spring training, he’s likely on an inside track to start the season with the Twins – probably in the bullpen where the team can limit his innings and monitor his progress as he adapts to major league hitters and wraps his head around pitching in double-decker stadiums. If Buxton doesn’t pan out as a positional player, chance #Twins try him as a pitcher? Reports were mid-hi 90’s in HS. [@Aaron_jenkins] This topic has come up with Aaron Hicks as well, who purportedly threw in the low 90s in high school like Buxton. So far, there are no indications that Buxton is headed for a bust – after all, he was both the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League’s number one prospect overall as an 18-year-old. However, if for whatever reason, he winds up unable to climb up the system as a hitter, I would definitely want the Twins to consider seeing if he can be converted to a pitcher. In fact, any and all positional prospects who have an arm should be given the opportunity to see if they can throw off a mound before being given their walking papers. In a piece at Deadspin.com, Jack Dickey spoke to St Louis Cardinals’ farm director John Vuch and that organizations methods for dealing with prospects with great arms who end up unable to catch on as a hitter: How are my Red Sox gonna look next year? [@MinnesotaRonin] Much like the Twins, the 2012 Red Sox had extensive troubles with their pitching staff – at least in the earned runs department. Boston allowed 754 earned runs, finishing one behind the Twins in that category and third most in the American League. And, like the Twins, things didn’t quite work out as planned, either. Two of their starters, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, had down years. Lester’s season was much more unexpected as the lefty had emerged as the team’s number one-type arm but a decline in strikeouts and an increase in his average on balls in play resulted in more runs. Josh Beckett’s fastball velocity dropped from 93.1 in 2011 to 91.4 in 2012 which opponents made much better contact on. So they wind up dishing out 94 innings to guys like Aaron Cook, who never met a bat he couldn’t hit. In fact, Cook’s 4.9% strikeout rate was the lowest among any starter with a minimum of 90 innings dating since the Mariners’ Glenn Abbott posted the same rate in 1979. But, unlike the Twins, the Red Sox have a ton of financial freedom – and that gives them the ability to fix things quick. In addition to an already high revenue stream, thanks to the unloading of Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (and I suppose Nick Punto too), this has freed up approximately $60 million of payroll to rectify the pitching problem, grab an outfield bat and perhaps bail out the auto industry as well. So far, the Sox have been tied to a bevy of free agent including Dan Haren and Scott Baker among others, who would go along with the existing arms of Lester, Buccholz, Felix Doubront and John Lackey. And rumor is the Sox are looking at former Twin Torii Hunter as well. By the way, if you would like to participate in the next round of questions, follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) and fire me any or all Twins/baseball-related inquiries.

No, Baker would be allowed to re-sign with the Twins as a player can sign with their old teams now, they cannot sign with any new team until 12:01 on Saturday.

According to FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi, the Cubs, Rangers and Red Sox have varying degrees of interest in the still unsigned Scott Baker.

Again, that's the Indians assessment of the market so it's possible that they are viewing it incorrectly. But the fact is MLB revenue streams have been increasing (the MLBAM payouts, the broadcast rights, etc) and therefore each incremental win for a team is likely now worth more than when Fangraphs first created the "value" statistic. Teams now have more money to use to purchase this win. This then drives the free agent market higher each off-season. (By the way, a great read on this subject is "Diamond Dollars" by Vince Generro). I believe the top of the class free agents will likely get close to the $9M per win per year (or a variation of that). Also, as I mentioned above and as Sharpiro was getting at, is that the 8-9M/win is not applicable to the long-term deal as they take in account a player's declining skills as well. So, it's possible that if you were to sign Greinke to a one-year only deal, he's value would likely be $40-45 million, but over the course of 6, 7, 8 years, the team is projecting diminishing returns and adjusts the AAV accordingly. Finally, as I mentioned, not all teams abide by that rules and that's where the notion of market inefficiencies exist. Players who are difficult to project because of injuries, lack of playing time, etc, present an opportunity for team like the Twins to acquire them at a below market rate -- like was the case of Josh Willingham whose age, injury history and defensive liability gave the Twins significant performance at a below market rate.

I have got to believe that based on Lewis's numbers in the NPB he would have a much higher success rate of transferring to the MLB than Messenger's does. Lewis (2008-2009): 354.1 IP, 307 hits, 369-to-46 strikeouts-to-walks Messenger (2011-2012): 296.2 IP, 294 hits, 288-to-110 strikeouts-to-walks

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1142-The-rising-cost-of-relief-pitching&

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1143-The-rising-cost-of-relief-pitching&

The Star Tribune's Joe Christensen speculates on the potential fits for the Twins on the open market: Of note, as part of his contract, the Mariners have until Saturday to negotiate with Iwakuma before he can become a free agent. While I don't mind any of those names, I am a little less enthused by Saunders, Guthrie and Blanton.

It's one of the reasons I commend the Twins front office for not getting involved in signing free agent relief pitchers to long-term deals.

I'm not saying that, the president of a major league baseball team who is statistically inclined is saying that. As he mentioned in his interview, his office has run all the studies. Of course, as I mentioned, this does not mean that all teams will abide by that pay scale. In the case of the Dodgers, they must have projected that League would fare well in his next three years and compared it to the thin crop of consistent relievers and decided to pay him on that scale. If $9 million, like Sharpiro said, is the actually cost for a win and League performs on par with his prior performances, he will be "worth" that in the end. The D'Backs, on the other hand, may have had other plans to spend that kind of money or similar not use the WAR value in that kind of capacity when valuating talent. The Twins, Rays, etc, will certainly not work on that level but it doesn't mean the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers are not working with those dollars. Last, one of the reasons that the past contracts (particularly the long-term ones) likely do not match that $8-9M range is because of what Sharpiro said. Players performances tend to decline over the course of a contract and it is likely that teams would adjust their AAV to match that decline. In the end, while League's contract may wind up being on the higher end of the spectrum this year, I believe you are going to see larger contracts and dollars going towards relievers than previously anticipated.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1142-The-rising-cost-of-relief-pitching

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2605[/ATTACH]If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry.

MLBTradeRumors.com has identified what they believe are the Top 50 Free Agents this offseason and have predicted their landing spots. For the Twins, they've predicted Terry Ryan would lock up Joe Blanton and Scott Baker. Rotation? Fixed.

They are all artificial turf -- aside from one field.

Right, the Gold Glove is often a travestshamockery and you could argue that Brendon Ryan was a superior defender, but I think this is league-wide recognition that JJ Hardy is very much an elite defender and jives with the advanced defensive statistics.