Parker Hageman

This is beating a dead-horse, I know. The Gold Glove Awards were announced last night in an oddly concocted award show format on ESPN2. In the AL, Baltimore Orioles' shortstop JJ Hardy was the recipient of the hardware for that position. So now, the Twins have traded away a 30-home run, Gold Glove winning shortstop. Since trading him, the Twins have had a -5.2 UZR/150 at the position (third-worst in the AL) along with a .280 weighted on-base average (third lowest). Meanwhile, the Orioles have hit the most home runs at the position (52 compared to the Twins' 18) and the O's have had the third-highest UZR/150 (9.6) in baseball. How do you feel about the team's future at this pivotal position?

As someone who is getting married next year, I demand you send me this .mp3.

1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweeted sources told him re-signing the recovering Scott Baker is a "high priority" for the team.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1115-Shawn-Marcum-could-be-a-fit-for-the-Twins

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2551[/ATTACH]The worst kept secret in baseball is that teams need an abundance of starting pitching. Like crack, you can never have enough. Also, pitching, like crack, can be an expensive endeavor – particularly when you need a lot of it. And this is exactly the position the Twins are in so said the team’s general manager, Terry Ryan, during his offseason apology tour. In a recent interview with Twins Daily’s John Bonnes, Ryan admitted that his financial resources may keep the team from chasing the Zack Greinke’s of the world (shocker), but the team will be scouring the market for top of the rotation help. (The interview’s entirety can be found the Offseason Handbook in which Ryan expands on this topic and many more.) If the team is looking to maximize the return on a smaller investment, one such arm Ryan should be zeroing in on in the free agent market is the 30-year-old Shawn Marcum. If you were looking just at the radar gun, you would likely be nonplussed at Marcum’s fastball. Indeed, his 87.2-mph fastball over his career would incite plenty to label him yet another soft-tossing pitcher. After all, he shares the same career fastball velocity as one flame-thrower Bruce Chen. Recognizing his weakness Marcum uses his fastball extremely sparingly. Dating back to 2007, outside of the knuckleballers, only Roy Halladay (33.8%) has used his fastball less frequently than Marcum (38.2%). Once he gets ahead in the count – which we has more often than not – hitters have a better odds of seeing Halley’s Comet than his fastball. And it is his plethora of off-speed and breaking pitches that makes him so impossible to make contact against. Again, since 2007, Marcum has registered the sixth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball behind such luminaries as Cole Hamels, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. That’s right: He missed more bats than Justin Verlander. Now, this has not translated into a ton of strikeouts but it shows that he is consistently confounding opponents. What makes Marcum so effective in spite of the town ball-level velocity is his ability to keep the fastball away off the plate while mixing in a variety of pitches and speeds that make hitters’ heads’ spin. Take a look at this year’s heat map of his pitch location: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2550[/ATTACH] To both sides, he served every down and away. The reason this is noteworthy is because this area is perhaps the most difficult for a hitter to square up and certainly one of the hardest areas to pull consistently. Furthermore, Marcum’s ability to change speeds to the mid-70s to 80 back to the upper 80s on almost any pitch keeps opponents from cheating on the outer-half. As we have seen at Target Field, it can reward hitters who can yank pitches into the right and left field stands thus having someone who keeps the ball away from those looking to do heavy damage is in the Twins’ best interest. In short, his ability to miss bats and keep hitters from pulling the ball with lethal intent would play very favorably as a potentially number two starter in Minnesota. So, what are the odds the Twins could end up with him? The Royals, Cubs and Blue Jays all may be landing places for Marcum. In fact, in an interview with a Toronto radio station, Marcum expressed interest in returning to the Blue Jays where he had been a member of the organization from when he was drafted in 2003 until being traded to the Brewers after the 2010 season. Marcum said that he would welcome a homecoming to his original team in part because of the coaching and training staff which he had a strong relationship. Presumably, Marcum’s past injury history (Tommy John in 2008) and recent flare up in Milwaukee this year (right elbow tenderness with required a trip to the 60-day DL) will likely drop his stock among all suitors. Even the Brewers, who have seen him up close and are just a year removed from a 200-inning season, have maintained radio silence with him and his agent. This probably does not bode well for his immediate financial future. As a result, his price range is likely going to fall towards more of a one-year plus incentives in order to rebuild his value while still in his early 30s (he’ll be 31 in December), at which point he can explore a longer, more lucrative deal on the market. The Twins have plenty of holes to fill and, sad to admit, a finite budget, therefore a one-year deal for a pitcher of Shawn Marcum’s caliber would be in Terry Ryan’s best interest.

Last winter, the Tigers added Prince Fielder for the royal sum of 9-years, $214 million. While it may have been a steep price to pay, it clearly helped launch Detroit to a World Series bid. Now, the Twins lack the Justin Verlanders or even Max Scherzers to give it a truly "on-the-cusp" team like the Tigers were at the end of 2011, however, if you were to sign one player this off-season -- cost/contract not an issue a la Prince Fielder -- who would you sign as the player who could tilt this team towards a title and why?

Oh, and as to why Hicks is in Venezuela this year, Terry Ryan said this back in August:

Part of a conversation I had with Rob Antony, and to paraphrase, was that the Twins focus more on the process than the outcomes during the low-to-mid levels. So that in the case of Hicks, they are looking for those types of things like shortening his swing or being more aggressive with two-strikes, for example, rather than the actual numbers. I'm not sure it was just repeating - after all, he was just 20 and younger than league average. But that could be part of the reason. Tearing it up as in the power numbers? Because otherwise, he put up a hell of a season, finishing 12th in OBP in the Midwest League. Yes, I recall there was one point where the discussion was if Hicks should give up being a switch hitter.

What is curious to me is what motivated BA to drop him from 19th to 45th AFTER his solid season at Beloit. Could be that there was a big influx of talent that pushed him down the list. I don't know. If someone has the pre-2011 Baseball America Handbook that has his write-up, please let me know the reasoning.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1108-Aaron-Hicks-stock-will-be-rising-this-offseason

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.

That probably has a lot to do with it. After all, based on Google maps, Coors batter's box faces directly north whereas Target Field's batter's box faces due east.

Joe Christensen passes along the message from Twins President Dave St. Peter that the team will not re-install trees in center field nor change the dimensions of the stadium, much like the Seattle Mariners are planning on doing in Safeco for 2013. With the addition of Josh Willingham, we've seen what kind of player is necessary in order to have a true home run hitter on the Twins: someone who pulls the ball regularly with authority, to left field. Right-center field however, while it did relinquish more home runs this year than years past, is still a death valley for fly balls. If any area of the ball park needed some rearranging, it would be in that area. Frankly, I'm okay with giving an advantage to the pitchers in this case. I'm sort of on the fence about the trees. They were aesthetically pleasing to viewers and provided a unique stamp on the field but if they really did affect the play of the hitters then, understandably, they had to go (of course, the Rockies have managed to do well offensively in Coors despite all this stuff in the background). And some players were lobbing complaining about the trees almost from Day 1: Meanwhile, if these April 2010 quotes hold true today Ron Gardenhire may be one of the organization's biggest impetus towards bringing back the trees:

Why joe mauer doesn't heet mor homruns?@?!

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1104-Twins-Kyle-Gibson-heating-up-in-Arizona

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider. That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona. Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope. According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign: According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.” Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity: In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics. But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%. Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.

I think it is a sort of chicken-and-egg argument that both Jim and Seth have presented. In someways they are right. Simply throwing advanced stats or ideas into the game for the sake of placating a segment of the audience is not the right way to go about it but saying that because a "majority" of the fan base doesn't understand it does not necessarily a good thing, either. There has to be ways to introduce these theories, stats and what they mean into the broadcast. If more people were educated on sabermetric thought, they may be interested in seeing more. Not long ago, OBP was not a stat included on the FSNorth's batter's line but now it is up every time they flash the at-bat stats. There are plenty of other ways to increase viewer's knowledge, and they do not have to be complex ones either, like the explanation of how to calculate WAR. With the ubiquitous of the Fox North Pitch Tracker -- something that is only a few seasons old -- there has got to be a way to integrate Pitch F/X and the information and insight it provides now that more people understand what it is (and not just say, "well, the ball crossed the plate there."). At the end of the day, I believe people crave more analysis and just because a presumed "majority" may be turned off by additional information, to me, is not a good enough reason to avoid engaging your fan base more.

I thought this was an extremely insightful piece by Len Kasper, the Chicago Cubs play-by-play man, on Baseball Prospectus today that is a must-read. Kasper detailed how quickly the mainstream broadcast aspect of the game exploded from awaiting annuals from Bill James and Baseball Prospectus in 2002 to the instantaneous nature of analysis available today thanks to the proliferation of websites like Fangraphs.com and Twitter (which, shameless plug, you can follow me a Twitter for some of that type of analysis) which pumps out up-to-the-second breakdowns and decisions. Internally, too, Kasper has witnessed a change in the culture: However, while there are small steps forward in changing the mentality and integrating new thoughts into the grand old game, Kesper stops short of suggesting we will turn on our TVs to see graphics depicting UZR or the triple-slash (although, I do believe FSNorth had flashed that during players at-bats) or xFIP any time soon. In tying it to our local broadcast team of Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, do you feel like there have been advancements in the way they have announced the game in the past five, ten years? Would a broadcast which focused more on sabermentric stats enhance the viewer process or convolute everything? What if instead of always cutting away to Roy Smalley or Ron Coomer, there was an stats equivalent to provide a brief snippet of analysis?

The same could have been said about Josh Willingham last year. Turned out pretty well for the Twins in his first year here. I complete agree about the Twins probably should be in rebuild mode. My past two Blueprints focused on that aspect. Since they appear to refuse this needs to happen, I altered my Blueprint to gear them to win-now. Two years is not an unreasonable length of time for a contract, in my opinion. It's not a bad option at all. I also liked the fact that Chavez hit better AWAY from Yankee Stadium to prove that his power numbers were not enhanced by the slow-pitch softball configurations in the Bronx. Why does it have to be an "under-the-radar" player? Given his poor performance in 2012, Youk is certainly not on many radars and if he does rebound, he would certainly deepen the lineup enough to "boost them into contention". I'll stop you right there and encourage you to read the Blueprint as a whole because it basically covered what you are saying. My Blueprint focuses on starting pitching first and foremost, but it does so by targeting what should be relatively inexpensive starters to allow for a deal such as this to be made. But, as you said, balance needs to be made thus the acquisition of Youkilis to improve the lineup so not only are we shaving off runs from the 2012 ledger, we are also increasing the amount scored. Correct.