Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2750[/ATTACH]The Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal reported yesterday that the Twins officials have been in contact with Francisco Liriano’s representatives and will meet next week in Nashville during the winter meetings. To many Twins fans, the news probably inspired a palm to the face followed by a head to the desk. After all, Liriano has been as bad of a starter in the past two seasons not named Nick Blackburn -- another reason to repeat the face-palm and head-desk combination. Since his mini-rebound in 2010, Liriano has turned in a bloated 5.23 ERA (sixth highest in that time) and has walked 12.6% of batters faced (second most in MLB). His inability to control the strike zone has resulted in the overabundance of baserunners and subsequent runs scored (hence the ERA and walk rate). Pitchers need to work ahead and throw a high percentage of strikes in order to maintain success at the major league level. High walk rates mean quick-rising pitch counts and early showers which means more strain on the bullpen and stress on the manager’s heart. Liriano, however, has been baseball’s biggest culprit of digging himself into a hole the past two years. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch data, his 51.7% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. It should be elementary but this was a very significant factor for Liriano has when he fell behind, opponents were able to reach base in a myriad of ways, in almost 50% of those instances (.498 on-base percentage when batters ahead versus .467 MLB-average). In comparison, when he was able to get ahead of opponents, he was able to retire them at a rate higher than the baseball norm (.186 on-base percentage versus .211 MLB-average). In terms of raw stuff, Liriano has been one of the best in the game. His slider has been able to make the smartest of hitters look completely stupid once it begins to descend the other direction. Thanks to good velocity and tilt, he is able to achieve plenty of swing-and-misses (23% in 2012) on the slider but it is a pitch best used when he is ahead in the count. Falling behind more frequently in 2012 translated into more two-seam fastballs (titled “Sinker” in this chart) says BrooksBaseball.net: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2749[/ATTACH] Liriano’s two-seam was one of the reasons he was his own worst enemy the past two years. In 2010, Liriano, not showing exemplary command of the pitch, managed to throw it in the zone over 52% of the time. The past two years, that rate has dropped to below 50% -- 46% in 2012 -- meaning that every other fastball was not in the strike zone. Hitters may be fooled by sharp breaking pitches darting out of the zone but a fastball isn’t going to get them to bite as regularly. As such, after a season of recognizing this tendency to miss the zone, hitters kept the bat on their shoulders more frequently (36% swing rate in ‘12 versus 44% in ‘10) and strayed after fewer out of zone fastballs (20% in ‘12 versus 25% in ‘10). The end result was a grand total of 52 walks on the pitch in 2012 compared to just 27 in 2010. A reunion with former pitching coach, Bobby Cuellar, who was recently promoted to bullpen coach by the Twins, may be the right combination to get Liriano’s game back on track. After all, it was Cuellar who had worked with Liriano on refining his mechanics which allowed him to throw more strikes -- currently his most notable flaw. Of course, a pessimist would argue that Cuellar has not exactly pumped out any other pitchers like Liriano or Johan Santana since his return to the organization since 2007. This past year, Nick Blackburn was sent to Rochester and Cuellar was instructed to fix whatever was wrong. After several successful outings in AAA, Blackburn was recalled and proceeded to crank out a turd of start after another over his final 12 starts. Whatever knowledge was bestowed upon Liriano and Santana did not sink in with Blackburn. What’s more is that Liriano was already suppose to be fix by White Sox pitching guru Don Cooper, who the careers of Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton have been improved because of his instructions. While it was just two months of mentorship, Cooper, who said that he knew what was wrong with the lefty, did little to set Liriano straight (he actually fell behind in the count more while in Chicago). In fact, when he started to careen off kilter, Cooper told reporters that it was more mental than physical, something the Twins had been saying all along: If the legendary Cooper cannot fix what ails Liriano, how is Cuellar going to resuscitate his career? Video does show that Liriano has some changes to his delivery from the 2010 season and a big part of that is keeping it consistent. In 2011, he was not extending the same as he did in 2010 which changed his release point. Early on in 2012, it was falling away to the third base side with every pitch and causing some arm slot issues. Can Cuellar perform the same magic as he did almost a decade ago in New Britain? Ultimately, if the Twins believe working with Cuellar can positively influence Liriano, somehow coaxing the 2010 success out of him, then a one-year gamble with the expectation that he is a back-of-the-rotation arm would be as good of a move as signing potential injury risks of the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Baker or Scott Feldman.

According to the Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal, the Twins are expected to speak with free agent Francisco Liriano's agents next week during the winter meetings in Nashville but have had some initial talks with his representatives already this offseason. The enigmatic 29-year-old left-hander has struggled mightily with control since a bounce-back 2010 campaign. His 12.6% walk rate has been the second-highest in baseball in that time and his 5.23 ERA has been very unimpressive. That said, he is still under 30, likely in line for a one-year deal and has missed more bats than any other starting pitching in the past two years (12.4% swinging strike rate). If the Twins are set on filling out the back of their rotation with a high risk/high reward free agent, Liriano is just as good as any.

ESPN.com's Gordon Edes urges the Red Sox front office to go all-in on Joe Mauer this offseason as the defining move to improve what has become an increasingly woeful team. Interestingly enough, rather than sign him as the team's catcher, Edes recommends landing the Minnesota-born Mauer and use him at first base in place of the departed Adrian Gonzalez: Edes then prattles off some statistics that we all have come to know, love and embrace while not for one minute consider booing the owner of the following metrics: Much like fantasizing what you will do with the Powerball winnings**, mulling over what sort of return you would get from Boston in this sort of deal would be fun but [probably] fruitless, cause it ain't going to happen. But what the hell? What do you think, how would a Mauer-less Twins look for the foreseeable future and what sort of packages from the Sox would you consider to let him go? (**Just so you know, if any of you do win the Powerball, the fine print when you registered for TwinsDaily.com says that you owe 65% of that to John, Nick, Seth and myself).

Right, in fact, he has caught just one game in the Pirates system since 2009. He's defense was always in question and has been projected to be moved out from behind the plate. I assume he will take the Parmelee/Bates/Burroughs role for Rochester in 2013.

According to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger reports that the Twins have signed catcher Jeff Clement, a former Baseball America's Top 50 prospect, to a minor league deal. Clement, 28, never gained any traction at the major league level with Seattle and was later traded to Pittsburgh in 2009 for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson. In the International League last year, Clement hit 16 home runs and 35 doubles (second most in the league) but like a true swing big, miss big type of hitter, he also struck out in 101 at-bats (22% of plate appearances). Clement was a Twins former 12th round draft pick in 2002 out of his Marshalltown, Iowa high school but chose to attend USC instead.

At his age and his track record, he's certainly earned the right to skip High A.

Following this year's championship game in the Arizona Fall League, Twins prospect Nate Roberts, who led the league in average (.446), on-base percentage (.565) and slugging (.662), took time to answer some of Baseball America's question why he had such an incredible season: If Roberts follows the standard promotion plan, he will likely experience some offensive decline next season in the Florida State League where the humidity and larger ballparks subdue power. Still, his on-base skills are impressive. His .433 OBP led the Midwest League (thanks, in part, to a league-leading 23 hit-by-pitches) and should be a solid foundation for going forward. To date, there is little video of Roberts available to me to properly breakdown his mechanics but I am eager to see more.

The "hole" is widened when a runner is on first because a first baseman is holding a runner on, that's true. However if you watch the games closely (or rather, review the footage as much as I do), you will see that the second baseman will position themselves differently to different hitters in different situations. If there is a force at second or, in the case of having Revere/Span on, faster runners on first that may require a quicker break to the bag on a DP ball, they will cheat towards second. In the first two examples, you see the second basemen cheating towards the bag. In the last, without needing to worry about a runner, the second baseman is able to play deeper and therefore increases the coverage and reduces the hole to their left. Yes, the first baseman playing back helps shrink that further but it is not exclusively covered by him. I'm not suggesting I have an answer to why he pulled the ball more frequently but in 2012 he had more plate appearances with runners on first with less than two outs than the past four years**. I would believe that having that option more often would lead to him pulling the ball more intentionally in those situations. **This is a byproduct of having guys like Span and Revere on-base ahead of him regularly. This raises another question that I was hoping would be discussed organically in the comments but I will ask it. If the Twins trade Span, what does that do to the top of the lineup? Who is hitting in the two-hole? If the top two spots have a lower OBP in 2013 than this season, will that effect Mauer's batting average/on-base percentage? Just some thing to mull over.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2690[/ATTACH]This is back-of-the-napkin type math based on a lot of assumption so please, do not attempt to cite the concluded numbers as final. They are, in essence, an educated guess that is founded from bits and pieces of available public information. But let’s use it to attempt to figure out why the Tigers are able to make it rain on the free agent market while the Twins are left counting pennies. The Tigers recently signed Torii Hunter to a two-year, $26 million deal. With that addition, Detroit now has five players under contract for 2013 who are scheduled to make $10 million or more for a grand total of $81 million. Plus, they have not completely ruled out extending pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking roughly $15 million per year. How is it that the Tigers are spending small principalities worth of money while the Twins stand idly by and target the one or two-year bargains? Detroit made approximately $93.93M at the gate last year (based on attendance multiplied by the $31 ticket price average sold). The Twins, on the other hand, made $91.74M (averaging $33 per ticket sold). That’s without taking into consideration advertising the stadium, suites, luxury boxes, concessions (which can range from $3.4 million to $20 million depending on the attendance and offerings). Assuming the Tigers were one of the teams to make the higher end of that based on their competitiveness and relatively new stadium, with a payroll of $133 million in 2012, they likely came in $10 million short. Comparatively, the Twins who also likely made the higher end of the stadium-generated revenue from suites and concessions, could have potentially made $10 million in profits (without taking in to consideration the operating costs, farm system expenses, etc, etc). Then there is the benefits of being a playoff team. According to research done by BizofBaseball.com’s Maury Brown, teams can stand to make an average of $1 to $2 million per game in the playoffs. If we split the difference, the Tigers could have made approximately $19.5 million for the 13 games played in October. In addition to that, Brown notes, the real windfall is the revenue generated for the following year as the club receives additional season ticket requests, sponsorships and are able to leverage that if local TV/radio contracts are up in the air. With the Twins not making it into even playoff contention for the second straight season, undoubtedly season ticket sales and sponsorship requests are down. The Tigers can plan for additional revenues whereas the Twins will likely brace for some fallout. The biggest difference maker between the two markets is the size of the TV contracts: The Tigers get an estimated $50M per season from their Fox Sports affiliate while the Twins are getting $29M per season. So, rather than having an operating loss as described above, the Tigers have somewhere closer to a $60 million profit thanks to the playoffs and broadcast rights. The Twins, meanwhile, could have somewhere in the ballpark of $39 million – a difference of $21 million in favor of the Tigers. What’s more, both teams, starting in 2014, will receive $50 million from the MLB central fund because of the new television contracts with ESPN and TBS. This added bonus certainly is taken into consideration when teams and agents are projecting long-term contracts. In the end, the Tigers could be poised to spend roughly $110 million (with some operating expenses removed) in 2014 while the Twins will be trying to compete with $89 million (with operating costs and what is certain to be a decline in ticket/stadium-based revenue). While it is not at the level as Detroit, the Twins still have plenty of money to spend for 2013 (particularly when you consider how much they have dropped off their payroll from the 2012 season) so they should not be crying poor. Sure, the ownership may be pocketing this additional funds – and that’s their prerogative – but, based on my outsider calculations, there appears to be plenty of revenue to add a few of the game’s top free agents…if they wanted to.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2683[/ATTACH]One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2681[/ATTACH] Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2684[/ATTACH] In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2680[/ATTACH] Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances.

Two things: (1) Lewis was already under team control when he sided his contract. Without competing against the free market, the Rangers were able to secure a discount. (2) Lewis had TJ in July while Baker had it in April. I would say Baker has a much better chance of providing innings in 2012 than Lewis.

I haven't seen anything that has said an option year. Plus, I don't see what that is so hard to accept as what is a normal deal in the MLB. Revenues have gone up and the cost of acquiring FA talent has gone up. Roy Oswalt -- who was DOA in 2011 -- received a $5M contract with $1M in incentives to pitch from May onward of last year. Baker has a much higher upside if healthy and will likely be full strength by May or June. Not a bad deal for either side.

But wait. I thought the Twins had already signed him to a three-year deal?

I'm fairly certain it would be a spring invite to see if he has anything.

The Tigers have offered him a contract: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121109/SPORTS0104/211090425/1361/Report--Tigers-offering-former-starter-Jeremy-Bonderman-a-contract

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2651[/ATTACH]Over in Indian Wells, California baseball’s head honchos are engaged in debates regarding rule changes, safety regulations and Ken Rosenthal’s choice of bow ties. In between that and the golfing, teams have been aggressive in their pursuits for available talent. “I’ve been in this business 21 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said pitcher Anibal Sanchez’s agent, Gene Mato of SFX. “This is moving really, really fast.” Even the Twins appear fairly active – at least if you are basing that on their “interest” list. So far, most of the reports emerging from the meetings demonstrated that the Twins are serious about fixing their starting rotation. Yesterday, John Bonnes discussed the potential starting pitching trade options for the Twins, highlighting the Rays and Braves in particular, and Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Twins and Mariners were talking swap. Now, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson compiled an interesting list of players the Twins have had contact with: Brandon McCarthy: Prior to catching on with the A’s, McCarthy was destined to be a flame-out prospect after several seasons with the White Sox and Rangers. If it were not for the early-career arm injuries, McCarthy may never have changed his mechanics which may never have led to the increase in ground balls. He does not miss a ton of bats, but he avoids heavy contact and has kept his home run rate subdued (part of that may have to do with pitching in Oakland). The downside is, with the extensive injury history and the recent blow to the head off the bat of the Erick Aybar, McCarthy has not thrown that many innings raising the question of whether or not he would be able to give a team 30-plus starts. In addition to the Twins, the Cubs are courting the right-hander. Anibal Sanchez: As Wolfson’s source indicated, Sanchez’s asking price may preclude the Twins from actually engaging in serious talks. It was reported last night that the 28-year-old right-hander is seeking a six-year, $90 million deal. Considering that Sanchez is likely the second-best free agent option on the market aside from Zack Greinke and that he is under 30-years-old, there is a strong probability that he could command that kind of cheddar. Ryan Dempster: Reported yesterday by Wolfson, the Twins “inquired” on this 35-year-old free agent. But so too have the Red Sox and now the Milwaukee Brewers. Dempster had success as both a closer and starter for some terrible Cubs teams, and had averaged 206 innings as a starter from 2008 to 2011. In fact, since 2008, he’s had the exact same expected fielding independent pitching number as Jake Peavy (3.73) and has been slightly better in that department than Anibal Sanchez (3.80). Of course, that doesn’t mean he will continue on that path. This past year, he struggled a bit in Texas and has had his velocity drop to sub-90 this year (not a good indicator in the mid-30s). On a one or possibly a two-year deal, Dempster could be an effective addition for Minnesota. Brett Myers: Working on a budget with numerous holes to plug, Terry Ryan will undoubtedly have to get creative in how to get the most out of their available payroll. With that in mind, targeting Brett Myers makes sense. After two consecutive years throwing over 200 innings with the Astros, Houston decided to convert him into a closer. Following a trade to the White Sox Myers, now a free agent, has interest in becoming either a starter or reliever. In terms of performance, Myers has been the archetypical Twins starter: Gets strike one (career 61% first-pitch strike rate), limits walks (career 8% walk rate), is not a strikeout pitcher (at least as a starter). This probably isn’t sexy but he’s done well and, if capable of hitting the 200 innings milestone, he would be a decent number four option in the rotation. Brandon Webb: This falls under the “leave no stone unturned” category. Webb has thrown only 12 real innings since 2009 and that was in the Texas League (AA) in 2011. His shoulder has simply not responded well since his 2009 rotator cuff surgery and that necessitated a second surgery in 2011. Since then, there has been no reports of Webb’s throwing status but considering the surgery was over a year ago, there should be some indication of where he is at velocity-wise. The odds are long but if this former Cy Young winner gets an spring invite and has rediscovered something, who knows. The Twins may ultimately leave California without any new additions to the rotation but obviously the groundwork has been laid. And, as it is rumored, the moves could happen quickly. Stay tuned.