Parker Hageman

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]3165[/ATTACH]The Minnesota Twins front office should feel somewhat vindicated by all of the recent draft picks, international signings and savvy trades which have brought the organization closer to sustainable relevancy – at least by MLB.com’s standards. On Tuesday night, MLB.com revealed their Top 100 prospects and six Twins prospects graced the list. Joining front-running Miguel Sano (12th), Minnesota sent 2012 draftee Byron Buxton (19th), recently acquired Alex Meyer (40th), Kyle Gibson (49th), Oswaldo Arcia (93rd) and Aaron Hicks (98th) into the top 100. Only Boston, Miami, St Louis and Texas equaled that total. The Twins added two additional prospects to that list over the prior year – mainly due to the return of Gibson from Tommy John surgery, the acquisition of Meyer, and the rebound of Arcia, who was added after he missed a substantial part of 2011. Both Sano and Buxton moved up in the rankings while Hicks dropped from 59th to 98th Eddie Rosario, who was ranked 80th in 2012 but was injured for a portion of 2012, was bumped off completely. Overall, based on the prospect points rankings (i.e. 100 equals 1 point, 99 equals 2 points, etc) the Twins’ scored 295, good for fourth behind Seattle, St. Louis and Tampa – three very good organizations when it comes to developing in-house talent. Earlier this month, Baseball America’s Jim Callis released their preliminary top ten list for farm systems in baseball. According to Callis, the Twins ranked seventh. Ahead of them included the Cardinals, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Red Sox and Rays. Once again, they ranked among the game’s best and – with the exception of the Mariners and Marlins – regular contenders. This was a sizable jump in BA’s standings considering that Baseball America viewed 19 other organizations to be better than the Twins a year ago. The climb was similar at prospect guru John Sickels’s site MinorLeagueBall.com. Last year, he placed them at 17th overall but moved them up to seventh as well this year. Of course, it should be noted how quickly teams can swing from top to bottom of Baseball America’s list. For instance, in 2010, the Cardinals were ranked as 29th, after being rated eighth the previous year. Two years later, they are the number one team. Likewise Cleveland who was in the seventh spot in 2011 dropped to 29th heading into last year. Several trades or solid draft picks can do wonders for an organization. Outside of the aforementioned big-ticket guys on the list, players like Rosario, newly acquired pitcher Trevor May and outfielder Max Kepler are drawing plenty of attention. Arms like J.O. Barrios and Luke Bard are also leaving strong impressions and could contribute quickly in Minnesota. Team president Dave St. Peter’s remarks on the recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast over the TwinsFest weekend revealed the team’s intentions. “We’re trying to do this right,” St. Peter said in regards to the team’s strategy. “We’re trying to do it the only way we know how to do it, which is to build this thing through our farm system and for the long term.” While many fans may be disheartened by the moves (or lack of moves) made at the major league level, building a solid foundation is imperative for the long-term success of any team. Having a strong minor league system does not necessarily mean waiting until 2021 and Hover Board Giveaway Day at the ballpark to be competitive either. Having a strong system also gives teams the luxury of trading for parts to help immediately. This offseason the Toronto Blue Jays, who were rated fourth in 2012, unleashed a flurry of prospects to land starters Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle and shortstop Jose Reyes. The Royals sent the number three overall prospects Wil Myers to Tampa for starter James Shields (for better or worse). If the 2014 roster – with an aging core of Mauer and Willingham – appear poised to compete, the team could trade from the depth to provide immediate reinforcements if deemed appropriate. Even if the rest of the 2013 season doe not quite go as schedule, rest assured that the team is laying the right groundwork to build upon.

Given that Ryan Braun's lawyer was able to get him off the hook because of MLB's chain of custody, I believe these players will skate as well.

Last week, 1500ESPN's Darren Wolfson revealed that the Twins are waiting on Joe Saunders's camp to respond to a one-year contract offer. Now, Orioles beat writer from the Baltimore Sun, Dan Connelly, writes that he believes that if Saunders is limited to a one-year contract, he will likely stay in Baltimore or leave somewhere else for an "eye-brow raising amount of money". Furthermore, Connelly reports that his sources say that Saunders has a two-year deal worth $15 million on the table. In addition to the Twins, the Mets and the Mariners have been connected to the left-hander.

The Miami New Times reports that a medical clinic in the south Florida area has evidence of supplying HGH, testosterone and anabolic steroids to various professional athletes. A spreadsheet, chronicling the sales of said items, has MLB players such as Alex Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon and Nelson Cruz. Two things come to mind when reading this article: (1) This is a poorly run outfit and (2) this probably is not the only one. UPDATE: MLB has responded to the Miami New Times story here.

Not trying to be a homer here but admittedly biased (I'm sure if roles were reserved, I'd be in your shoes. Like the push-off Vikings-Cowboys hail mary). Got to watch that play a few more times. Gant's momentum is what caused him to go off the base. Hrbek may have clung on to him but there's nothing illegal about that. Watching the replay, you do not see any lifting or pulling. Had Gant slid like he should have, all of that would have been avoided. In terms of his personality, yeah, no idea what it is like outside of the field of play. He could be the biggest bastard in the world. Although for Halloween, he hands out king-sized candy bars and autographed cards to neighborhood kids. Never said it was a good/bad thing. Just that Hrbek constantly tinkered.

Lee, it was meant to be tongue-in-cheek not an actual weight measurement. I sometimes try to say funny things. Saying "quarter-ton" sounds funny to me.

Hrbek changed his swing A LOT. Few online videos exist to analyze this properly but there are plenty of quotes throughout the years from coaches and front office members speaking to this. There are some photos that show a radically different batting stance throughout his career as well.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]3128[/ATTACH]Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Twin Delmon Young to an interesting one-year deal. The Phillies set parameters within the deal that stated Young needed to maintain a certain weight in order to have incentives kick in. As baseball observers may have noticed, over the years, Young’s weight would ebb and flow. For instance, when the Twins acquired him from the Rays, he had slimmed down to a healthy 215 thanks to a hard regiment in 2008. That number however would balloon to 239 by September 2009. To his credit, at age 24, he dropped over thirty pounds and came into camp at 207 in 2010. That year, in which he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 home runs, was, by far, his best season of his career to date. That would not last as Young would add more weight the following offseason. In an interview with TwinkieTown.com prior to the 2011 season, assistant GM Rob Antony said this about his significant weight loss: Young showed up to camp in 2011 not only heavier but supposedly more muscular. Of course, he would also witness a sizeable drop in all of his stats as well that year. That’s when the Twins had enough of his poor defense and his inconsistent offensive output and traded him to Detroit for next to nothing. This past year, Young was said to have been playing at 225. On Tuesday, the Phillies’ physical showed him at 238. Young’s explanation for the fluctuation in weigh since last year was, as he says, due to “some ice cream and good luck cakes” found in the clubhouse. Perhaps the Phillies have analyzed his performance in conjunction with his weight and realize that he produces much better when he’s between a certain figure. For Philadelphia, they are saying he needs to weigh less than 230 three time and fewer than 235 pounds the final three times for him to obtain optimal production – which would then led to an additional $600,000 for him. If he could offensively replicate what he did in 2010 be worth a little over half a million? Think about it. A team with a savvy numbers-crunching staff may discover the next Moneyball breakthrough based on the scale. Young’s story is reminiscent of another former Twin – one whose shapely form now greets fans outside of Target Field. Unlike Young, Kent Hrbek’s tale originates from an era when offseason workout schedules and owner investments’ in players were not nearly as obnoxious as they are now. There was no Twitter to provide a snarky remarks about weight. And, as opposed to modern times, you could be sure there was not an internal statistical analysis department running studies on production based on optimal weight. (Not that this is done now, either.) Today, almost all players on the field seemingly have bodies like P90X background actors. Outside of Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval, there are no Pucketts, Gwynns, Kruks and Hrbeks with such impressive love handles. Even though there were more players in that era carrying a few extra pounds, Hrbek’s weight was no less of a topic of conversation among reporters. In 1984, at the young age of 24, Hrbek’s physique was compared to a local Floridian celebrity. No, not Miami Vice’s Don Johnson. Rather, it was Shamu, the nearby Sea World’s famous killer whale. Hrbek, who had entered his major league playing days at a trim 200 pounds, had gained nearly forty pounds in two years. Heading into his fourth season with the team, jokes were flying around the spring camp in Orlando. One report said that during the designated weigh-in, Hrbek stepped on the team scale and it spat out a card saying: Come back when you are alone. While that was a fabricated clubhouse talltale to give the hometown hero a good natured ribbing behind closed doors, one player took the message public. Tinker Field, home to the Twins’ spring training until they moved to Ft Myers, was, like most low-level minor league stadiums, rung with advertising on the outfield walls. One section pimped out the nearby Sea World. Adored with the famous killer whale, somebody taped the number “14” on the chest. (This, Hrbek later revealed in his book “Tales From The Minnesota Twins Dugout”, was the work of Mark Portugal. Pretty ballsy work from a guy who was a 21-year-old AA pitcher at the time.) Of course, this would not be the last his el bees would come into question. While he weighed a reported 236 in 1984 – a year in which he finished runner-up for the AL MVP - that figured climbed to 245 in 1985. By spring camp of 1986, it would be near 250 and be the focal point of the media as the team reported to Orlando. The quarter-ton drew plenty of attention but then-manager Ray Miller did not seem the least bit concerned. “Everyone has heard his weight and jumped to the conclusion that he’s gotten fat,” Miller told reporters. “But it’s not true. We had people working with him lifting weights three times a week during the offseason and he looks better than he’s ever looked. He told me for the first time he can go to the beach and take his shirt off without being embarrassed.” Miller had sent him and some teammates to work out over the winter at the University of Minnesota – which was a far more rigorous from his previously rumored offseason workouts which involved bowling once a week. Hrbek’s habits were infamous. He would drink, smoke and eat in the clubhouse. Sometimes all at once. In 1988, media members enter the clubhouse post-game to find a shirtless Hrbek housing a cigarette, holding a beer in one hand and an ice-cream sandwich in the other. The first baseman would dip the treat into the beer and then take a bite. He told reporters that “it softens up the ice cream. Maybe there’s some money in it. You know, like when the chocolate hits the peanut butter.” Roughly around the same time in ’88, when Twins fans showed up at the hotel they were staying at, Hrbek sat at the bar and drank beers with them. In 1991, Marty York of the Toronto Globe and Mail described Hrbek as “an obnoxious creature with a penchant for annoying those around him. Hrbek’s repertoire of chicanery has been known to include such actions as blowing cigarette smoke in the general direction of a teammate’s face.” Drinking and smoking are not patterns of a player hoping to play at an elite level for an extended period of time like, say, how a guy like Jim Thome embraced yoga to maintain flexibility at age 41. In addition to eschewing regular workouts and stretches, dieting on fatty foods, beers and Camel Lights would likely shorten any career. For Hrbek, longevity never was the goal. He went into his age-32 season in 1992 looking to silence the whispers that his ability to play at a high level while pulling a 250 pound piano behind him would not be reduced. That campaign did not get off to a great start when he busted up his shoulder in spring training and staffers were questioning whether if there had not been a K-Car attached to him, he might not have been injured. Still, he did quite well early on. Through June 9 of that year, he was hitting .326/.446/.570 in his first 167 plate appearances. That day, a Kansas City reporter wrote up a piece which asked the question what Hrbek might be like if he focused on staying in shape: Hrbek went on to point to fellow National League chubster, John Kruk, who was leading baseball in average, as an example. “The guy’s hitting over .370,” Hrbek said. “That’s one for the fat boys.” Of course, over his final 303 plate appearances after that article, Hrbek hit just .201/.308/.324 with 8 home runs. Both Kruk and Hrbek would be out of the game before their age-35 seasons – a rather remarkable thought considering the need in the game for power-hitting left-handed designated hitters. Hrbek did it on his own terms, citing his need to step away from the game and be with his family. Maybe emotionally he was ready to make that decision although his body was definitely there on the assist. After playing in an average excess of 140 games per season from age 22 to 28, after that, when he experienced the most weight gain, he averaged less than 112 per year. He was breaking down like a 1980s Ford truck. In the end, Hrbek was, essentially, a precursor to Park & Recreation’s Ron Swanson. He ate what he wanted, he drank, he smoked, and he avoided all that physical labor and just did not care. He enjoyed himself. That did not mean he did not take pride in his work. He was truly a naturally gifted player who took his talents as far as they could. He could hit the tar out of the ball. The problem was that it was a truncated career. Had he jogged, mixed in a salad, done yoga, whatever, he could have played four more years. Maybe his 1990s would have been more fruitful. Maybe we would be discussing his Hall of Fame potential right now. Who knows? That, however, is not a part of the Hrbek ethos. He did not need the awards or the accolades. He was satisfied with two very important team awards. He did not care about seeking more money in free agency because he wanted to play at home. He enjoyed himself, even if that meant indulging his vices in exchange for a higher salary or a longer career.

You must have missed the part of the article in which I said "inexact study" and "small sample" in reference to the analysis but, hey, super glad you brought it up again and added a smiley face. Second, this was not to show Mauer or Doumit are bad (both have decent numbers) but that Butera holds a small advantage over the two and comes in at a range that is considered in baseball circles to be very advantageous. And Butera's ability to catch bad pitches (i.e. sliders down and away to rights) and make a strong throw that nails a runner should be noted. While a small sample size (as noted in the article), none of Mauer or Doumit's throws were on difficult pitches to handle. It's a skill that baseball people pick up on. You are citing Caught Stealing% which includes the pick-off from pitchers which the catchers receive credit. This does not show how many runners the catcher actually threw out. Your sample size is actually smaller than the 30x "factual" events.

Good question and, no, Fast's study does not look at the pitchers however, Dan Turkenkopf who was recently hired by a pro team, did do a study that examined how things like age and experience effect borderline calls (found here: A Nibble Here, A Nibble There - Beyond the Box Score). Essentially, Turkenkopf's finding shows that there is some advantage granted to the experienced pitcher (over 8 years) but not enough to make a conclusive difference.

Instinctually I agree with that. That said, I still circle back to the fact that we do not measure defensive contributions of a catcher very well. So, for a back up catcher, is it possible to overcome that unbelievably bad offensive performance with some defensive value? I'm of the belief that, yes, defensive catchers have plenty of value but in the specific case of Butera, I don't think he compensates enough to make up for that deficit. My main point is I want someone smarter than me to come up with some push-button analyses that helps tell me how good he is at framing, controlling the run game, etc...

It goes beyond just the glove. In Fast's piece, he provided examples of Molina and Doumit. Molina was stoic during his reception while Doumit's head bobbed significantly. In theory, even that minor movement influences the umpire's decision. Not many wins as in you don't believe 1 to 2 wins that Fast's research says is important or that 1 to 2 wins via framing isn't achievable?

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]3078[/ATTACH]Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins and catcher Drew Butera avoided arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $700,000 contract, an almost assured sign that Butera will be on the roster as the team’s third backstop. Why, you ask, might the Twins invest almost a million dollars in a player who is completely expendable as the epitome of a replacement level player? Consider this: Over the past three years Butera’s OPS (.497 OPS) has been the worst in the American League and the second worst in all of baseball. Only the Giants’ Emmanuel Burriss has had an OPS lower than Butera. This, for all intents and purposes, should be the definition of replaceable. Almost all of the rational for his retention revolves around his defensive prowess. In fact, Googling “Drew Butera” and “Defensive Prowess” pings back numerous articles using that phrase to describe him. Much like focusing on someone’s “good personality” to conceal other glaring flaws (i.e. nasty body odor, operates a baseball blog, etc), “defensive prowess” feels like a similar smokescreen to avoid stating the obvious about his bat. But how “prow” is his defense? This question is harder to answer as there is no definite measurement or widely available statistic that accurately portrays a catcher’s value based on things like game-calling, framing and/or controlling the run game. One can look at a stat like caught stealing but that tells as much of a story of a catcher’s skill has fielding percentage does a shortstop or outfield assists speak towards a right fielder. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast – now an analyst for the Houston Astros – showed the baseball world just how much value could be placed on a catcher’s framing ability. By his methods, having a catcher who can coax out a borderline strike could save 15-20 runs per season – the equivalent of one or two wins. Conversely, a bad catcher could cost their team the same amount of runs. Of course, while this data is fascinating, it is something that has not been automated by any sites to make this information publicly available so we do not know if Butera’s technique save or cost the Twins runs. One thing we do know is that Butera has a strong track record of throwing runners out. In 2011, possibly because of Carl Pavano’s disregard for the run game, the Twins paired him with Butera who has show a propensity to cutting down base-runners in his minor league career. According to his Baseball-Reference.com stats, between 2005 and 2011, he nabbed 42% of all would-be thieves. This past year, his caught stealing rate plummeted and he managed to throw out just four on the bases. In George Will’s Men At Work -- an examination of some of the game’s finer points through the eyes of the best players at the time -- teams will track a catcher’s catch-and-release time which is dubbed “pop-to-pop” time. Pop-to-pop time is a measurement used by coaches to separate good catcher arms from bad ones. This means they are stopwatching from the moment the ball hits the catcher’s glove until it smacks the middle infielder’s mitt. In the book, an unnamed coach rattles off pop-to-pop times. 1.94 seconds: Good. 2.12: That base is good as gone. 2.04: M’eh. 1.85: Nailed ‘em. Overall, the difference between being ninety feet closer to scoring a run or gaining an out is approximately one-hundredth of a second. Naturally, the ability to throw runners out is tied to the pitcher keeping the runner from breaking early. This brings me to the Twins’ trio of backstops. While theft is a shared liability with the battery mate, having a pitching staff that has total disregard for the running game reduces the effectiveness of a defensive catcher. The 2012 Twins were labeled as one of the worst at base-runner attentiveness. That said, Butera’s ability to catch and release provided this staff with the best odds of thwarting larceny. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3077[/ATTACH] In an inexact study, a stopwatch has shown that over the course of five throws to second, Butera’s “pop-to-pop” time averages out to be the best: So Butera has a better arm or better footwork or a quicker release than the other two, at least in this small sample. Observationally, Butera was able to make these quick throws while handling sliders down and away on at least two of those five examples. This should not go ignored. Over the entire season, Baseball Info Solution has assigned a value on a catcher’s ability to subdue the run game. Of the Twins’ three, Butera (0) outperforms both Mauer (-3) and Doumit (-1). So, strictly speaking controlling the run game, Butera’s effect on the overall team’s performances is slightly better than Mauer and Doumit’s but minimal according to BIS. This begs the question, is being able to control the run game worth paying nearly a million for a third catcher? Someday we may have the tools to be better equipped to answer that question. For now, the Twins are committed to bringing him back – for better or worse.

Thank you, vigilant readers! Yes, I saw that on my first pass through after publishing but there is something amiss on the back-end that is not allowing me to update any corrections. Just know that you have been heard and subtract one year off of the stated ages above.

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