Parker Hageman

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1398-Reliever-Ryan-Pressly-leaves-an-early-impression

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization.

Ryan Pressly’s odds of making the bullpen when the Minnesota Twins break camp in April appear somewhere between slim and none. On a liberal guess, there are likely three spots open and two of those may already belong to Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak. The remaining vacancy? That’s competition between a Twins’ bullpen incumbent in Casey Fein, baseball’s relief innings leader last season in Josh Roenicke, and two former major leaguers trying to re-establish their careers in Rich Harden and Rafael Perez. So where does that leave a 24-year-old Rule 5 draft pick who has fewer than 30 innings of experience above Double-A? Probably with a one-way ticket back to Pawtucket with all the clam chowder he can eat waiting for him. Because of the Rule 5 draft’s rules, if Pressly is not placed on the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to Boston. However, there is another route Pressly could go to remain within the Twins’ system and that is if the team pulls a trade similar to the one that landed them Scott Diamond from the Braves. In order to do so, the Twins will need to place him through the waivers, exposing him to all the MLB teams, prior to negotiating a trade with the Red Sox. Would Pressly be worth it? There are plenty of people within the organization who firmly believe in his capabilities as a major league contributor. When the Twins selected him in early December out of the Red Sox organization, plenty of officials were already infatuated with his stuff. The Twins director of scouting Vern Followell, who followed Pressly since high school, said that he envisioned the right-hander to be a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Early in camp, manager Ron Gardenhire was also keen on the youngster, noting that while Pressly was a bit erratic, he was impressed by his fastball. What’s more is that Pressly was facing the meat of the big club’s order during his live BP sessions including Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Trevor Plouffe. Pressly works with a three pitch repertoire that is comprised of a mid-90s two-seam fastball, exquisite tilt on his curve and a good changeup. With those three pitches, the Sox had designs of making him a starter. While he did well with his secondary offerings, Pressly’s fastball often got him into trouble and he wound up with a high number of free passes issued. What is interesting about Pressly is that he make opposite handed hitters – lefties – miss more often than same-sided ones. This is not usually true as right-handed pitchers are much better at striking out right-handed batter thanks to the ability to hide the ball better and spin pitches away from their swing. Given the , one would assume he would thrive against righties but that has not been the case. Still, in 2012 – his first year in the bullpen – Pressly struck out 14% of right-handed batters faced but yielded a 25% strike out mark against lefties thanks to a strong running fastball and changeup combination. Take a look at this clip of his changeup thrown to Justin Morneau this week: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1361543132_Pressly.gif (Video courtesy of MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger) According to the StarTribune’s Phil Miller, this incited the Twins first baseman to describe the pitch as “nasty” afterwards. Pressly’s changeup has a strong bite down and away from the left-handed swing. Based on this action, one can easily conclude how he is able to achieve such a high percentage of strikeouts against the opposite hand. Competition may ultimately keep Pressly out of the hunt for the final bullpen spot but his strengths as a reliever should not go unnoticed this spring. Keep an eye on his ability to command his fastball. If he impresses enough, he may be given an opportunity to remain with the organization.

Those guys (Serifini, Naulty & Lawton) were also using some 'roids: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/magazine/05/29/baseball.steroids/index.html

Friend of Twins Daily Brandon Warne unearthed an interesting piece of nostalgia -- an online archived 1996 Baseball Prospectus Annual. In it, you will find all the teams and their season write-ups and player synopsis, including the Minnesota Twins: 1996 ultimately was a snake-bitten season, what with the loss of Kirby Puckett in the spring, but the team did produce a few good offensive seasons (thanks to free agent Paul Molitor and Chuck Knoblauch). Still, the pitching was a mess and probably the 36-year-old Puck wouldn't be able to rob nearly enough home runs to change that fact.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1392-What-To-Watch-This-Spring-Brian-Dozier-s-Swing

Last year, as Brian Dozier’s offensive season sank deeper in the abyss, Andrew Bryz-Gornia at TwinkieTown pointed out how many different stances Dozier displayed. While the frequent changes in his batting stance acted as a visual barometer to his overall hitting struggles – the constant alteration a sign that he never was comfortable at the plate – his front side mechanics may have been one of the sources that led to his poor numbers. In 2012, Dozier’s swing contained a front foot landing which often remained closed at the point of contact but then was followed up with a delayed and inconsistent heel spin. What was happening was that Dozier’s upper body was pulling off of the pitch or spinning off the ball. Furthermore, the lack of a foot spin may have been a hint that Dozier’s overall mechanics were not entirely fundamentally correct and that he was not maximizing his hip contributions. The results were a high percentage of pitches pulled. Early on, this played to Dozier’s advantage however, when advanced scouts recognized this, he was pitched away more. Unable to make the in-season adjustment, Dozier’s numbers declined and the changes in his stance increased as frustration mounted while the core problem remained. Now in Fort Myers and reunited with his former minor league hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, Dozier has worked on improving his mechanics. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger captured video of Dozier working in the cage this week with Brunansky providing instructions (nothing of interest, simple baseball jargon like “wait for yours”, “little bingo” and “how now brown cow”). What is shown is Dozier’s swing and the Twins middle infielder has solidified a few things on the front end: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3301[/ATTACH] Admittedly, this is cage work, in Florida, with a pitcher who is probably throwing 75%. That said, in these swings we see a firm front foot that opens with the swing – not after – and remains in place rather than having it fall off the towards the third base line. This is an indication that the hips and hands are working in unison and giving Dozier a more solid foundation to drive the ball. Likewise, with the added stability, that should give him the ability to better control the zone with his swing and drive a pitch on the outer-half to right field as opposed to turning it over to the left side of the infield. Even though he ultimately homers on this particular swing – a demonstration to his bat speed and strength – you can see that based on his front foot, he was not maximizing his hip rotation in his swing last year. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3302[/ATTACH] From the front view, notice how Josh Willingham’s strong hip rotation forces the front foot open (this is a trait shared by many power hitters in which the front foot rotates open with the swing): [ATTACH=CONFIG]3303[/ATTACH] With seven spring games expected to be broadcasted on Fox Sport North, keep an eye on Brian Dozier’s front leg during his swing.

Here are some post-session quotes/items from Pelfrey today: "Pelfrey added he's been more aggressive than others in coming back from TJ surgery but Dr. James Andrews has signed off on everything." -- @RhettBollinger "I‘m going to be ready," Mike Pelfrey said. "I feel great. There’s not a doubt in my mind Opening Day I’m going to be on the team." -- @MikeBerardino

Several wins and possibly some trade value. But, overall, not much. It's a valid point.

Nick -- we hashed this out a bit on Twitter a few days ago -- but to clarify, my position is not a question of who would return to better form quicker. Personally, for many of the reasons you cited previously, Pelfrey is a probably better bet to recovery fully and thus a better signing option on a one-year deal than Baker. What I'm suggesting is that Pelfrey will not be effective if he pushes it for a April return. Studies have shown that tommy john takes 12-to-18 months to FULLY recover. Sure, pitchers have come back prior to that timeline but many have struggled (like Nathan) or did so in a limited capacity (like Hudson). The Cubs have already made plans to ease Baker into the rotation. Pelfrey seems to be pushing through. Also, with Baker, his recent laundry list of arm ailments revolved around his UCL -- which was replaced. In this case, that makes citing his previous injuries almost irrelevant. That said, as I type this, beat reporters are saying Pelfrey's live session was "impressive" and he "kept the ball down in the zone" (Rhett Bollinger & LaVelle Neal). Still, I'd rather the Twins hope for the best and plan for the worst.

It's not medical staff that it in question. I'm just trying to temper expectations of when Pelfrey will be a contributor. Based on past TJ cases, 12 months is the time pitchers general return. The Cubs appear more open & accepting of the reality that it will be at least 12 months for Baker (possibly more). The Twins are - at least publicly - believing that Pelfrey will have accelerated his recovery time by one month (which is possible, I suppose). But they have been burned by that in the very recent past (Nathan). Behind closed doors, they may be making moves (like signing Perez) that suggests they are not 100% confident in his ability to contribute right away (or they simply could be adding pitching depth).

All of Baker's original injuries were UCL related and he had it replaced. Obviously each individual is different but the interesting part will be to see how the slow-and-steady approach compares to Pelfrey's.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1377-Will-Mike-Pelfrey-be-ready-by-opening-day

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3265[/ATTACH]Mike Pelfrey, or “the Big Pelf’ as he is called, towers at six feet, seven inches tall. Because of his substantial stature, it is likely that when Pelfrey starts saying that he will be ready to pitch by April this year, there is nary a person around to tell him otherwise. Even the Minnesota Twins figure that Pelfrey, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2011, will be ready by the opener, less than a year after the procedure. “If the season started tomorrow, I would have worked up to be ready at this point,” Pelfrey told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. “Realistically, after 7 ½ months, I threw 90 pitches to hitters, so I could pitch [now]. They told me the other day, ‘No restrictions. You’re on the schedule with everybody else.’ That’s what I wanted.” He has reportedly thrown 40 mound sessions since the surgery and has zero setbacks thus far. There is no question that he is doing everything possible to be ready by April 1. An interesting comparison to Pelfrey’s development will be to monitor how the Chicago Cubs prepare for former Twin Scott Baker’s return from the same injury. When Baker was signed the past November, the Cubs raved about his progress. They were teeming with optimism that Baker would be a key component of the team’s success right away, mostly based on his rehabilitation. “There are no certainties with rehabs, but we spent quite a lot of time on the medical (evaluation) and (looking into) his rehab,” said Chicago team president Theo Epstein. “It was described by our medical staff as an ideal Tommy John’s rehab, so far. Knock on wood. Everything has gone perfectly so far. He’s really attacked it in an ideal manner.” Fast forward to yesterday and Chicago’s field staff communicated a different message. Manager Dale Sveum said that the team was planning on “babying” him through spring training and that Baker had an “above-average” chance of missing the start of the regular season. What does Scott Baker’s timeline have to do with Mike Pelfrey? Baker had his Tommy John surgery almost two week prior to Pelfrey. Like Pelfrey, Baker’s rehab was thought to be going exceptionally well. He was throwing off of flat ground by August 8 and was throwing from more than 120 feet in September. In November, following his signing, the Cubs officials expressed adulation of his progress. During the time Baker began throwing again last August, Pelfrey was in Wichita where he played college ball. There, he helped coach an 18-year-old local team who was heading to a national tournament. Pelfrey took the opportunity to tell reporters that the medical staff and Mets’ organization had advised him to shoot for a May 2012 return based on the 12-month timeline post-surgery, but his own personal goal would be to be ready by opening day. By the middle of August last year, reports emerged that Pelfrey would be throwing on flat ground “soon.” Already he was few weeks behind Baker’s timeline but it appeared to be slipping further off target. When the Twins signed him in December, Pelfrey told reporters that he was confident that he would be 100% by opening day. "I'm on track for Jan. 15. So everything is going well," Pelfrey told ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. "Tim Hudson came back in seven months (from Tommy John surgery)…I'll definitely be ready when spring training rolls around." True, Hudson came back quickly, but his actual recovery time was a bit longer than what Pelfrey relayed to the press. While he did return to pitch in the minors for a brief spell 10 months after his 2008 Tommy John surgery day, it wasn’t until 12 months after his surgery date that Hudson was throwing in the majors again – and even that was September work with the off-season ahead of him to rest. Essentially, Hudson jumped into the marathon near the end of the finish line whereas Pelfrey is expecting to run up to the starting line of the race and toss 180-plus innings. Locally, fans will remember Joe Nathan’s slow return to form in 2011. Nathan received the gift of a new UCL in March 2010 and busted his butt to get back on the hill by the start of the 2011 season. Nathan said all the right things, just like Pelfrey: I don’t want to be babied, I feel great, etc. After a clean spring training, Nathan was brought to Minnesota in what turned out to be a premature decision. It took the Twins nearly two months of the season, three home runs, two blown saves and a 7.63 ERA, to realize that Nathan was not ready. He was sent to Rochester to break up some scar tissue and came back effective for the second-half of the season. What may be similar between Nathan and Pelfrey is that they shared an expiration date on their contracts where Baker has an option year with the Cubs – one plausible reason while Nathan and Pelfrey were so eager to push it while Baker and the Cubs are willing to ease up on the throttle. This week, Baker reportedly threw 40 pitches at 70 percent effort in response to the Cubs’ babying program. Meanwhile, early dispatches from Fort Myers suggest the new Twin one-upped the former Twin and has overtaken him in the race for the return. In his first bullpen session of the year, Pelfrey threw 50 pitches. There are plenty of reasons why Pelfrey may actually comeback quicker than expected. His size suggests that he can take pressure off his arm. His relatively low injury history may mean he is less injury prone in general. He may have X-Men DNA and heal freakishly fast like Adrian Peterson. This is to say, every individual repairs themselves differently and at different intervals. Still, research tells us that the time to return to form from Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months. Hard work and great genes may help Pelfrey target May – closer to the one-year anniversary of his new elbow – but anything earlier than that could be risking a setback (like Joe Nathan). The Twins may be supportive to the public of Pelfrey’s return but, at the same time, gathering insurance quietly such as signing left-hander Rafael Perez, someone assistant GM Rob Antony believes can be stretched out into a starter, to a minor league contract. Perez -- along with Rich Harden and in-house candidates like Liam Hendriks, Cole DeVries and Sam Deduno -- may be the safety net the front office is preparing in the event Pelfrey is not ready by April. At his age and his relatively low injury-risk in general, Mike Pelfrey is almost certain to rebound. Never say never but, if history has any indication, the likelihood of him pitching effectively in April appears low.

I haven't seen his arm in person so just basing it off of scouting reports from BA/BP, it's a solid, middle-of-the-road arm. In terms of judging outfield arms, there seems to be three buckets -- really good, really bad and everyone else. Arcia seems to be in that "everyone else" category. There are things a player can do to make up for having a decent arm -- like charging, quick release, etc -- and that's something I have not seen in person to comment on.

I'll also add that his strikeout rate is uncomfortably high too. He's young so there is the possibility that those will come down. That is one of the bigger difference between he and Jason Kubel at this time -- Kubel did not have nearly this high of a strikeout rate. There is an abundance of Arcia clips/packages available on YouTube and more highlights on MiLB.com. In terms of comparing to Parmelee specifically, Arcia starts with lower hands and has a less pronounced leg-kick (Parmelee really gets that front leg up with a longer stride forward). Both generate power in their hips but in different ways. Watching the clips, there is something very familiar about his swing that I cannot quite put my finger on it -- I want to say a Yankee for some reason -- but he does have some Kubel elements to it as well.

His numbers in the Florida State League suggest to me that his stats are not a complete fluke. I'm definitely higher on Arcia after delving into his background more -- am I'm absolutely smitten with that swing.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1367-TD-Top-Prospects-4-Oswaldo-Arcia

Age: 21 (DOB: 05/09/1991) 2012 Stats (A+/AA): .320/.388/.539, 17 HR, 98 RBI, 76 R, 4/9 SB ETA: 2013 [ATTACH=CONFIG]3243[/ATTACH] It has been a while since the Minnesota Twins had major league ready offensive talent in their farm system knocking on the door of the big club. Outfielder Oswaldo Arcia appears to be wiping his feet at the welcome mat. Of course, there are just a few more steps - and players - ahead of him. One of the few areas of surplus in the Twins’ organization has been center field talent. In addition to Denard Span and Ben Revere, looming at the upper levels were Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks. Behind those two is Byron Buxton, the 2012 number two overall draft choice. If one were monitoring the pipeline, it became clear that for one position, some players were either going to move out of the middle of the outfield or be moved out of the organization. The Twins front office cleared some room quickly when they dealt Span and Revere this offseason, opening up a vacancy in both center and right. While Benson and Hicks will audition for the role of center this spring, Chris Parmelee, a first baseman by trade but an outfielder by necessity, is the front-runner to start in right field. Parmelee’s tenure in right appears to be a less-than-permanent job placement if Arcia continues to club the ball as well as he has the past two seasons. Arcia’s progress through the pipeline was stymied in 2011 when in early May, pain in his throwing elbow called for clean-up surgery that sidelined him for two months. Coming off of a season in which he tore through Appalachian League pitching in 2010, this injury abbreviated what should have been his first full season. Undeterred, the Venezuelan outfielder continued where he left off the previous year and mashed his way from the Gulf Coast League to the Florida State League – with a brief stop off in the Midwest League. In all, he accumulated just over 300 plate appearances and posted a respectable .866 OPS as a 20-year-old. Asked to repeat the 2012 season back at Fort Myers, this gave Arcia some additional at-bats in the offensively-challenged Florida State League. For some, the FSL can be a humbling experience for young hitters. Between the heat, humidity, the size of the ballparks and the advanced college pitchers, players who were putting up eye-popping numbers in the rookie and low-A leagues are often brought back down to Earth upon landing in America’s coastal swamps. It’s largely an environment where the men are separated from the boys and the prospects from the pretenders. Arcia’s half-season with the Miracle reaffirmed that he was definitely a legitimate prospect. While the average hitter in the league held a .373 slugging percentage, Arcia was one of five players in the league to have a slugging percentage over .500. Pushed up to New Britain and Double-A ball, as a 21-year-old in a league with an average age of 24, Arcia simply raked and emerged as a genuine run producer. At one point, he drove in 67 runs over the course of 69 games. The Good: Thick in the truck and stout in the upper body, Arcia has a bulldog-like build that consumes the left-handed batter’s box. Coupled with a strong hip transition, he is able to repeatedly make solid contact and power by keeping his hands close to his body and thereby creating leverage, as shown below: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3244[/ATTACH] This is an example of a pitch on the middle-to-outer third of the plate. Arcia is able to keep his hands close to his body and drive that pitch to the left-center gap for a double. With the spacious Target Field the ultimate goal for any Twins prospect, having line drive power to all fields – particularly in the expansive gap-to-gap region on the ballpark – is a very coveted skill. The Bad: Like most left-handed hitters at his age, Arcia has struggled some against same-sided pitching. Over the past two years, his OPS has been two hundred points lower when facing left-handers versus right-handers. Are the Twins concerned about his splits? Not entirely says Twins’ Director of Minor League Operations, Brad Steil. “Not concerned, but as with many young left-handed hitters, we know it’s an area he’ll need to keep working on. He did show improvement in the second half with New Britain last season.” That’s very true. After hitting .210/.286/.306 in 70 plate appearances against southpaws with Fort Myers, Arcia hit .319/.400/.464 over his next 80 plate appearances against lefties while in New Britain. Is this small sample size success or a sign of progress? The Bottom Line: Will Arcia get the call at some point this year? “Any potential contribution in the major leagues will depend on his progression and performance and an available opportunity,” Steil answered diplomatically. Obviously there is not a need for a corner outfielder at this point. That said, could certain moves in-season prompt an opening? Perhaps trading a soon-to-be free agent first baseman or moving the current starting left fielder into a full-time designated hitter role would make room. If Arcia continues to produce at the same pace as he did last season, it may be a “when” not “if” scenario for the Minnesota Twins.