E. Andrew

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4903[/ATTACH] In a lost season, baseball fans take what they can get. Most get by on hope, and for the Twins, looking toward the future has begun as early as ever. Before elbow surgery, Kyle Gibson's name often topped lists of reasons to keep the faith. Though he's stumbled out of the gate, he has the tools to work at the top of the rotation, and he has the freedom to develop on-the-job. Here are five areas where Gibson can improve as he gains confidence in his pitches and trust in his catchers and coaches, beginning tonight. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]CONTROL WITH RUNNERS ON BASE[/TD] (Plate Apps) AVG/OBP/OPS [/TD] SO/BB With RISP Gibson (34) .367/.412/.845 [TD=align: right]1.50 Twins .291/.356/.798 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.57 AL .259/.336/.736 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.89 [/TABLE] Traditional theory assumes most batters swing more freely with men on, looking for RBIs. But when pitching to them, Gibson leaves too many balls over the middle of the plate instead of consistently working the corners. Some may be mistakes, but others are untimely efforts to stay ahead of the batter. He spends little time "watching" runners back to the bag, instead working quickly after receiving the sign. While it's wise to trust base-stealing threats to veteran defenders, Gibson often looks too eager to rush the pitch and make up for the mistakes that put men on. Statistically, pitching performance shouldn't change dramatically with runners on base. Continuing at a natural pace and keeping the ball down and away from the batter - especially with his slider - will not only keep batters off-balance, but should induce ground balls and lead to more missed bats. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]TAKING WHAT'S EARNED[/TD] After 0-1 Count [/TD] Gibson (46) .275/.348/.648 [TD=align: right]3.33 Twins .241/.279/.638 [/TD][TD=align: right]5.08 AL .226/.265/.612 [/TD][TD=align: right]6.36 [/TABLE] After taking an 0-1 lead in the count, pitchers should gain a sizable advantage. Though Gibson is getting first pitch strikes at nearly the 60% league average, he converts them to outs far less often than his peers. After grabbing two strikes - an even greater lead - Gibson has a modest 2.20 SO/BB, compared to an AL average of 5.26. Some of the fault lies with Mauer, but that's to be expected. As both gain confidence in their game plan and pitch selection, strikeout rates will improve. SLIDER COMMAND Baseball America ranked Gibson's slider as the best in the Twins' organization after each of the last four seasons, but it's been his least "valuable" pitch in his short time in the majors. In his home collapse against the Yankees on July 4th, he relied heavily on the breaking ball and off-spead pitches (both 22%, vs. 56% fastball). Ten days later he found relative success in New York by dialing in on his command and increasing his power pitches to 71% (vs. 17% breaking balls and 12% off-speed). A lot of the damage on the slider is due to tough luck (.400 opponent BABIP), and it's still been his best pitch in producing swinging strikes. Expect to see usage rate increase as he gains confidence. Combining it with his controlled fastball and quality change-up will produce a powerful out-pitch and lead to a more impressive K-rate. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]GAME PROGRESSION[/TD] [TD=colspan: 4]Gibson vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA (36) .303/.333/.727 [/TD][TD=align: right]3.00 2nd PA (36) .467/.556/1.122 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.50 [TD=colspan: 4]Twins(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .307/.356/.823 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.86 2nd PA .285/.343/.775 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 [TD=colspan: 4]AL(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .258/.315/.729 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.82 2nd PA .261/.323/.749 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.34 [/TABLE] Of course, hitters tend to improve slightly each time they face a pitcher in a game, but opposing batters have crushed Gibson after their first time up. Mauer has seen enough of the AL bats to have a feel for their strengths, but as noted previously, he hasn't seen enough of Gibson to embrace new combinations. His release points are consistent, and his velocity and movement look good. As Gibson's confidence develops and reliable pitch varieties follow, he should regain some ground. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]HANDLING LEFTIES[/TD] Gibson [/TD] vs. RHB (44) .231/.318/.626 [TD=align: right]3.00 vs. LHB (58) .380/.448/.908 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.33 Twins (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .281/.331/.745 [TD=align: right]2.45 vs. LHB .285/.346/.791 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 AL (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .251/.308/.705 [TD=align: right]3.16 vs. LHB .261/.330/.754 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.10 [/TABLE] Simply put, these splits are far too extreme to last. Gibson wouldn't be here if lefties could hit him at this rate. He's faced very well-coached (if only traditionally-potent) AL East lineups three times, and there are always adjustments to be made on the first go-around in the big show. He's a first-round draft pick, and he's earned his trip to the big leagues. Fear not. There’s been plenty of change across the club, and plenty of losses to match it. But the light is growing at the end of the tunnel. Though Twins Fans will work to forget 2013, they can remember watching their future stars grow. Here's hoping Kyle Gibson becomes just one of them.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4895[/ATTACH] In a lost season, baseball fans take what they can get. Most get by on hope, and for the Twins, looking toward the future has begun as early as ever. Even the most casual fans now anticipate the arrival of Sano and Buxton, but in a down year, it's easy to forget that many prospects are already here. Before elbow surgery, Kyle Gibson's name often topped lists of reasons to keep the faith. Though he's stumbled out of the gate, he has the tools to work at the top of the rotation. Here's five areas where Gibson can improve as he gains confidence in his pitches and trust in his catchers and coaches. Control With Runners on Base RISP Gibson (34) .367/.412/.845 1.50 Twins .291/.356/.798 1.57 AL .259/.336/.736 1.89 Traditional theory assumes most batters swing more freely with men on, looking for RBIs. But instead of consistenly working the corners, Gibson leaves too many pitches over the middle of the plate. Some may be mistakes, but others are untimely efforts to stay ahead of the batter. He spends little to no time "watching" runners back to the bag, working quickly after receiving the sign. While it's wise to trust base-stealing theats to veteran defenders, Gibson often appears too eager to make up for the mistakes that put men on. Continuing at a natural pace and keepingthe ball down and away from the batter - especially with his effective slider - will not only keep batters off-balance, but should induce ground balls and lead to more missed batts.

Oh, and I'd love Coomer full-time. I wouldn't have guessed it, but he's great in the booth. Really does an awesome job of analyzing the matchups/at-bats. With Dick/Bert, I mute the tv and listen to Provus/Gladden. They're awesome. Not to sound pretentious, but Bert is unbearable. You know how there's technically commentating in a video game like Madden? Just generic responses triggered by events on the screen? That's Bert, unfortunately. He's good-natured and all, but adds nothing. You don't learn anything.

He's an incredibly insightful baseball mind, but it'd be tough for most people to take a full year of him. That said, I loved having him this weekend. I get the feeling that he's probably a bit awkward when it comes to anything but baseball... he doesn't consider how to say things like 'Kazmir,' or Richard/Dick. But he knows his stuff.

True or not, this brand of writing just breeds ill-informed sports fans. Start with a subjective, flavor-of-the-day assertion that management is guiding the club in the wrong direction, add an appeal to ignorance, finish with a further irrelevant comparison to another sport, and you have a Star Trib article. Feeling a bit cynical this morning haha...

I like the Herrmann and Colabello moves, though it'll be complicated to get everyone in consistently. Both could use the time to become future trade chips if they don't fit in to our roster.

Nice article. I'd HATE to see him go, but business-wise, it makes perfect sense, and it'd be great to load another nice prospect into the system. Also, there's this on the situation for those that missed it: The Mets and Twins Should Remember Joakim Soria | FanGraphs Baseball

A) His trip is next year. Good chance Sano won't be there. Edit: Here's the affiliate history. A+ Fort Myers is the only one that hasn't moved since 1993. All others have been in 3+ diff cities since then. Minnesota Twins Minor League Affiliations - Baseball-Reference.com

Go through Jason Zucker's highlight reel and you have enough reason to watch next year. I don't love the Cooke move, but we'll still have a great top line and lots of depth to play around with.

I've never been to see the Red Wings, but I would guess it's more trouble than it's worth. If you want to see more Twins facilities than just Target Field, and you're planning a separate trip just to do that, I'd suggest going to see A+ Fort Myers. Plane tickets are cheaper, and you'd still see great prospects (often BETTER pure prospects), playing in the Spring Training facilities. Once I finally made it down there, Spring Training was more fun to follow thereafter, because you can picture what their days are like, and see all the practice facilities that videos come from, etc. Most importantly, AAA may not be in Rochester forever. If you're going for 'check-marks' for your fandom, that complicated jet out east could be irrelevant not long down the road. I'm 26, and there's been 5 different AAA locations in my lifetime. The Fort Myers outfit isn't going anywhere. They own the stadium, they just sunk in a ton of money, and there are further serious renovations planned over the long term. Long story short, I'd say skip the Rochester trip. See other big league ball parks, or go to Ft Myers if you want more Twins locations.

Great primer for a trip to CR, thanks Seth!

Sorry if a similar question has been brought up recently, but does anyone know of a reliable way to forecast probable pitchers? After seeing Berrios in Fort Myers, I'd like to catch him on a trip to see the Kernels, but his starts don't seem to be a consistent number of days apart. I've googled it a bit, but I can't find anything solid. Thoughts? Thanks!

Good quick listen: Doug Mientkiewicz, now managing the 12-1 Fort Myers Miracle, raves about Sano and closer Zack Jones, and states that he wouldn't be surprised to see Eddie Rosario starting at 2nd next season with the Twins... 1500ESPN SportsWire - Minnesota sports news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Sports News To die-hards here, Rosario's is a household name, but playing alongside Sano, he gets less coverage in the media. Eddie would have to continue this hot streak at A+ and do the same for several months at AA (and then hit like Hicks in the following Spring Training), so while it's unlikely, it's not impossible. Anyone lucky enough to see him this March or last year with Beloit can see the potential, and personally, he's the prospect I'm most excited about. Thoughts on Rosario or others in Fort Myers?

Brian Harper, Scott Baker, Matt Tolbert, Jason Bartlett, and Pat Neshek, though some obviously outgrew the 'guilty' part.

Awesome, thanks! I only offer this as help, not as 'You should have recorded this.' 'Audacity' is a free, super-easy audio editor, once you get the hang of it, it's one click to record anything coming out of your speakers. Might make it easier on you, and you could sit back and listen Thanks again! Audacity: Free Audio Editor and Recorder

Yeah, both solid gloves, hopefully one gets a hot bat. Anything even approaching .250 would be awesome, as would 15+ SB.

7 Benson, 8 Hicks, 9 Mastr are all in too... Unfortunately, M & M and Willingham aren't riding the bus up the coast, but otherwise a decent look at potential 2013ers/future.

Only the opposite would surprise me with the Twins... but yeah, seems likable.

I think Rafael Soriano has proven that closers may not be able to expect top dollar anymore, and situations like Heath Bell have likely tempered the market. It may not cost as much as you might think.

If we traded Mauer we'd essentially be admitting that 'No, the Twins never want to own a ~$20 million player.' Because he's worth the money. So financially, I guess if you can find a reasonable alternative. whatever. But if there's ever a ~$20 million dollar player that - specifically the Twins - should own, this is the one. The Pohlads have made it clear that half of revenue will be spent on players, so the money will be there, and a large chunk of it should go to Mauer. Fans love him (and they create the revenue) and he's worth it.

Possibly a stretch, but I love to agree, and love the trade.

From a financial perspective, I wouldn't want to trade Willingham at this point. He's got a great contract, sure, but that aside, a certain type of fan really likes Willingham. Most people posting here have at least a general understanding of the potential we're now 'nearing' with our minor leaguers, but the opposite type of fan thinks 'WTF kind of team are we fielding?' That type of fan likes Morneau and Willingham, which does matter when it comes down to $s and filled seats. At this price, why throw away a big part of our available power?

This is what I'd like to see. Agree that this probably is the smartest move.

Just so happy to have Terry Ryan back...