Seth Stohs

One month of minor league action is in the books, and for the most part, it has played out even better than could have been anticipated. The Minnesota Twins organization’s top prospects are performing very well. Just as important, several of the second-tier prospects have been able to establish themselves early in the season. The Ft. Myers Miracle has the most wins of any team in the minor leagues. The Cedar Rapids Kernels have a roster filled with players who were on the Beloit playoff team a year ago and from the Appalachian League champion Elizabethton Twins. Over the next couple of days, I will be posting the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Month, Starting Pitcher of the Month and Relief Pitcher of the month articles. There were a lot of very good choices. However, we still need to talk about what happened in the Twins system on Tuesday night. Rochester Red Wings 2, Buffalo Bisons 5 Box Score Clete Thomas got the Red Wings on the scoreboard in the first inning with his fourth home run of the season. He went 3-5 with the home run as well as his third double. Chris Colabello went 2-5. Joe Benson had a hit to extend his hitting streak to seven games. In that time, he is 9-26 (.346). Andrew Albers put together a solid start. The left-hander went six innings and gave up just two runs on eight hits. He walked none and struck out seven. Shairon Martis came on and gave up just one hit over two scoreless innings. The score was just 2-1 entering the ninth frame when the rehabbing Tim Wood came on. He recorded just one out, but he gave up three runs on three hits. Michael O’Connor came on and got the final two outs. The Red Wings finish April with a 10-16 record. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3955[/ATTACH] New Britain Rock Cats 2, Harrisburg Senators 6 Box Score Alex Meyer was back on the mound for the Rock Cats. He threw five scoreless innings in this game. Unfortunately, he pitched six innings and the third inning didn’t go so well. He gave up four runs in that frame. Overall, he gave up four runs on five hits and three walks. He struck out eight. As impressive in the development process, Meyer did not allow a base runner following the third inning. Jose Gonzalez came on for the Rock Cats and gave up two runs on four hits in 1.2 innings. Michael Tonkin came on and got the final four outs. The Rock Cats bats didn’t show up in this game. They managed just four hits. Curt Smith went 1-2 and walked once. New Britain ends April with a 13-12 mark. Ft. Myers Miracle 5, Clearwater Threshers 2 Box Score The Miracle had an incredible month of April, ending the month with another win to give them a minor league best 21 victories. DJ Baxendale was back on the mound and was a winner for the fourth time in the month. The right-hander went six innings and gave up two runs on five hits. He walked one and struck out five. Chad Rodgers came on and threw two scoreless innings. Corey Williams came on and recorded his sixth save with a perfect ninth inning. Angel Morales had the key hits in this game. He was 2-4 with his ninth double and his second home run. He drove in two runs. Eddie Rosario was 2-4 with a walk and his seventh double. Andy Leer was also 2-4. Miguel Sano was 1-2 with two walks. Stephen Wickens and Levi Michael each doubled. Cedar Rapids Kernels 5, Lansing Lugnuts 4 Box Score The Kernels managed just five hits in this game, but a couple of them were pretty important. Byron Buxton led off the bottom of the first with an infield single and came around to score on Dalton Hicks’ fourth home run of the season. In the third inning, it was Buxton’s turn to hit his fourth homer of the year, another two-run blast. Matt Tomshaw made his first start of the season for Cedar Rapids. The lefty threw five shutout innings and gave up just four hits. He walked one and struck out two. Manuel Soliman came on in the sixth inning. He gave up two runs on three hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. He was replaced by David Hurlbut who gave up two unearned runs on three hits and a walk. Tyler Jones came on to get the final out and his fourth save of the month. The Kernels’ 18-5 record is overshadowed by the Miracle, but they are off to a tremendous start. A LOOK AHEAD to Wednesday The Rochester Red Wings will be enjoying an off day on Wednesday. New Britain will sent lefty Logan Darnell to the mound against Harrisburg. Darnell is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA so far. The Miracle will play an afternoon game in Clearwater. Jason Wheeler will look to improve to 3-0 despite going into the game with a 5.84 ERA. Cedar Rapids makes their first, long trek into the Eastern Division as they will play West Michigan. Lefty Brett Lee is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA. Twins 1, Tigers 6 Justin Verlander was Justin Verlander. Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder all homers. Vance Worley gave up six runs. OK, in general, it was not a good game for the Twins. The lone run came on a Wilkin Ramirez double. Please feel free to comment or ask questions below.

Yeah, I don't think WPA is a good statistical thing for pitchers.

Yup, I understand the distinction. I should have been more clear. I just think that if a guy that young puts together good plate appearances and appears to have a pretty decent idea of the strike zone, hopefully that'll show up in some walks down the line.

A tweet from Brice Zimmerman, the play-by-play guy for the Miracle: Brice Zimmerman ‏@ZimMiracle8m Eddie Rosario not only passing the eye test at 2B, but also statistically is best in the FSL. Perfect in 24 games, 135 chances and 20 DP.

Likely no surprise, but Walker was named the Midwest League Player of the Week for his past week's performance.

Fair concerns, but I don't know what you're expecting from a smooth-fielding middle infielder. The walks certainly are a fair concern. He's agressive, but not Danny Santana aggressive. From what I've seen, he has a pretty strong grasp of the strike zone. As for power, I mean, he's like 175 pounds, and a speed-type guy, so I think his power potential may be in that 10-15 home run range at best. But your point is fair, he could become a .285/.325/.355 type. Though a .680 OPS SS or 2B isn't exactly bad. That's the kind of guy you want around for 4-6 years.

JD is a really god guy. Just compared to last year, I'm told he has really matured, but it is also clear that he is a leader on this time. He is very fun-loving, but despite his low batting average, he has definitely taken strides forward since last year. It's fun to see. He's fun to watch. A great athlete!

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1648-Twins-3-Tigers-4-The-Value-of-Each-Play

On Monday night, the Minnesota Twins began a three-game series in Detroit against the Tigers. It was Mike Pelfrey facing Max Scherzer. You likely watched the game or saw the box score already when you read this, so you know that the Twins fell by the final score of 4-3. It was interesting to watch the game while at the same time calculating the Twins Win Expectancy after each and every play throughout the game. Win Expectancy is a number that changes with every game situation. Someone who had too much time on their hands looked at every play in MLB games from 1957 through 2005. It assigns a Percent-Likelihood of a team winning based on what happened over nearly 100,000 games. Here is a look at the Top 5 Plays from tonight’s Twins-Tigers game in terms of effect on Win Expectancy. #5 – Florimon Turns Double Play from Back Side. It was the bottom of the 5th inning and the Twins led 3-1. Mike Pelfrey had allowed a lead-off single to Alex Avila. With Avila on 1st, the Twins’ Win Probability was at 66.1% Omar Infanta blasted a one-hopper right at the Twins shortstop. Florimon fielded the ball cleanly but as he was throwing to second base, he was falling backwards. Despite his imbalance, he made a perfect feed to Brian Dozier who quickly turned and fired to first base to complete the double play. Now with two outs and no one on, the Twins’ Win Expectancy increased to 76.2% Win Expectancy Change – 10.1% #4 – “Hammer” Homers to give Twins 1-0 Lead. A visiting team’s Win Expectancy when the game starts is just 46.1% Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer flew out. When Josh Willingham stepped to the plate, that Win Expectancy was down to 42.1% Scherzer didn’t give up many hard hit baseballs through the game, but Willingham did get a hold of this one for a solo home run that gave the Twins the 1-0 lead. Following the homer, the Twins Win Expectancy was 53.0% Win Expectancy Change- 10.9% #3 – Dirks Homers to Cut Twins’ Lead in Half. In the 2nd innings, the Twins added a second run on an Aaron Hicks’ ground out to take a 2-0 lead (which increased the Twins Win Expectancy by 4.3% to 69.8% After the Tigers and the Twins each posted one, two, three innings, Andy Dirks came up with two outs and no one on base in the bottom of the third. The left-hander’s solo home run cut the Twins’ lead to 2-1. It also cut the Twins’ Win Expectancy from 71.0% to 58.9% Win Expectancy Change – 12.1% #2 – Arcia Double Gives Twins 3-1 Lead. The Tigers (Dirks) cut the Twins lead to one run in the bottom of the third, but the Twins were able to get a couple of doubles to get that run back and reclaim a two-run lead. With one out, Chris Parmelee doubled to very deep right center field. After Trevor Plouffe struck out for the second out, Oswaldo Arcia fell behind Scherzer 0-2. However, he was able to fight off a fastball and hit a soft liner just inside the left field line for an RBI double. After the Plouffe strikeout, the Twins Win Expectancy was 57.8% However, after the RBI double, the Twins Win Expectancy jumped to 71.6% Win Expectancy Change – 13.8% [ATTACH=CONFIG]3927[/ATTACH] #1 – Fielder Blast Gives Tigers 4-3 Lead. If you watched the game, or saw highlights, it was pretty clear which play of the game had the biggest effect on the Win Expectancy. When the bottom of the 6th inning began, the Twins’ Win Expectancy was at 73.3% After an Andy Dirks bunt single to lead off the inning, it fell to 67.5% Following the Miguel Cabrera walk to put runners on 1st and 2nd bases, the Win Expectancy fell to 59.5% However, after Pelfrey’s first pitch to Prince Fielder landed behind the wall in centerfield, the Twins Win Expectancy was just 23.1% Win Expectancy Change – 36.4% [ATTACH=CONFIG]3928[/ATTACH] (Please note that this chart shows the Win Probability for the HOME team, the Tigers, throughout the game.) Pelfrey was very good through the first five innings. Unfortunately, the struggles in the fifth inning happened, and happened quite quickly. Win Expectancy is a nice, fun tool that can be used to see the impact of individual plays on the game. Like all statistics, it isn’t a perfect tool. For instances, when Fielder came up, the Twins Win Expectancy was 73.3% whether it was Fielder stepping to the plate or Don Kelly or Tom Kelly. If you take a look at the Win Expectancy change for each player in the Twins lineup, it can show who had the biggest impact, positive or negative, in the game. It is extremely important to point out that this is a one-game sample, so performance (or clutchness), good or bad, has to be taken for what it’s worth. For this one game, here are the Twins hitters effect on Win Expectancy. Brian Dozier -15.5% Joe Mauer -9.2% Josh Willingham +5.6% Justin Morneau -11.4% Chris Parmelee -4.4% Trevor Plouffe -4.9% Oswaldo Arcia +14.3% Aaron Hicks -2.1% Pedro Florimon -0.1% Safe to say that Oswaldo Arcia was the Twins player who gave the team the best chance to win on Monday night. Win Expectancy is just one way to look at a game. It is kind of fun to see how much each play affects the game, from the first inning to the ninth, or to extras. On this night, one pitch completely altered the outlook of the game. Unfortunately, it was one pitch that meant a Twins loss instead of a Twins win.

Salcedo had problems with his shoulder and his elbow last year and rehabbed all season and all winter to avoid surgery. I'm sure the eventual plan is to get him back into starting, but they'll be cautious with a talent like him! As for the K-rate, I'd say small sample size at this point. As for the hits, he's starting back over, so struggles should be expected at times. Nothing to be alarmed about right now, but certainly something to watch over time.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1636-Twins-Minor-League-Report-(4-28)-Duffey-Does-it-Again

t was bound to happen. The four Twins full-season minor league affiliates had all won each of the past three days. That’s a 12-0 record. On Sunday, that streak broke as two of the affiliates won. That said, all four games were decided by two runs or less. There is some very good baseball being played in the Twins farm system. Speaking of very good baseball, the Minnesota Twins are back over .500 again after a 5-0 win over the Texas Rangers. Kevin Correia continued his impressive April with the Twins. On Sunday, he worked eight shutout innings to lower his ERA to 2.23. The team now begins a ten-game road trip. Rochester Red Wings 3, Buffalo Bisons 5 Box Score Evan Bigley had every right to be disappointed when he learned he would be sent back to New Britain to start the 2013 season. Fortunately, just weeks into the season, he was promoted to Rochester. After a 3-4 on Sunday, he is now hitting .394 through his first 11 games with the Red Wings. Chris Herrmann went 2-4. He is hitting .250 on the season, but in his last seven games, he is hitting .379. Ray Olmedo went 1-3 with two walks. Liam Hendriks was back on the mound for the Red Wings. He gave up five runs (3 earned) on eight hits in five innings. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out two. Tyler Robertson struck out two over two scoreless innings. Dan Turpen went the final two innings and gave up only one hit. New Britain Rock Cats 2, Richmond Flying Squirrels 4 Box Score Lefty Pat Dean started for the Rock Cats and things went well early. He gave up a leadoff single, but then he struck out the next three batters. However, he gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings to take the loss. He walked none and struck out four. AJ Achter came on and gave up one run on three hits and a walk over the next two innings. Aaron Thompson threw two scoreless innings. Danny Santana went 2-4 with his second double and his second stolen base. Dan Rohlfing went 2-4. Ft. Myers Miracle 8, Clearwater Thrashers 7 Box Score The Miracle jumped to a 7-0 lead after scoring five runs in the top of the 7th. The got some insurance, which proved necessary when Clearwater got within one run in the bottom of the 9th. Taylor Rogers made the start for the Miracle. The lefty gave up two runs in the 7th inning, but he was still on the mound when the 9th inning started. He gave up a leadoff double and left the game. The runner came around to score which gave him a final line of three runs on six hits in eight innings. He walked none and struck out just one. Adrian Salcedo replaced him and gave up four runs on four hits in the ninth. He struck out two. Eddie Rosario went 2-4 with a walk, his sixth double and his second stolen base. His third home run of the year came in the ninth and proved to be a very important run. Angel Morales went 2-4 and got the Miracle on the scoreboard early with his first home run of the season. Miguel Sano went 2-5 with his first triple (which was nearly his tenth home run). He also stole his second base. Kyle Knudson went 2-4. Kennys Vargas hit his seventh double. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3911[/ATTACH] photo by Rinaldi Photos Cedar Rapids Kernels 4, Lansing Lugnuts 3 Box Score Tyler Duffey was back on the mound for his fourth start of the year, all four on Sundays. He improved to 3-1 with eight strong innings. He gave up three runs on seven hits. He walked none and struck out four. Tyler Jones registered his third save with two strikeouts in a perfect ninth. Jorge Polanco went 3-4. After his walk-off, pinch-hit “single” a night before, Travis Harrison was back in the lineup on Sunday and went 2-3 with his ninth double. DJ Hicks drove in a run with an 8th inning single to give the Kernels the lead. A LOOK AHEAD to Monday Rochester will play at 6:35 against Buffalo. If you have MLB Network, you can watch Virgil Vasquez take the mound. Trevor May will take the mound for New Britain when they play Harrisburg. After having a start pushed back due to illness, Tom Stuifbergen returns to action for the Miracle when they play again at Clearwater. J.O. Berrios will make his second start for Cedar Rapids against the Lansing Lugnuts. Please feel free to comment or ask questions below.

Very well stated, and Walker is not a Top 10 guy for me either... yet. As someone with the Twins once told me, their job is not to get them to the big leagues quickly. It's for them to be ready and prepared when they get there. I too could care less if a guy debuts as a 22 year old or a 25 years old. I find it funny when people say that Dozier was old for his level of competition but he debuted in the big leagues at 24. Kyle Gibson will likely be 25 and that's only because Tommy John delayed his debut by about 2 years. Now, Hall of Famers may make it when they're 20 or 21 or so, but Jamey Carroll made it to the big leagues when he was 28 and has been around for 12 years. Mauer made it at 20... he's a Hall of Famer. Arcia made it at 21. I hope Colabello makes it at 29!

Age to level-of-competition is certainly a piece of the Prospect equation and it should be. However, I do think that people make a little bit too big of a deal of it, especially with first or second year players. Walker is right where he is and ight where he should be at this stage. What happens in Elizabethton has a lot to do with things that aren't necessarily baseball related. It's about adjusting to pro ball, the wood bat, etc., but it's also about having their first official job of their career and such. It's a good place for even the college guys. Walker will move up if he keeps performing. He's playing 19 games in Low A. He wasn't very good the first 10 or so. He's been tremendous the last 5-8 or so. Let's let him sustain that for a little while. He'll likely be promoted at the All Star break at which he'll be like 21.7. Age is a piece, but it's not one to worry about when you're less than 22 or 23.

Just so people have them: Adam Walker is about 21.5 years old... The average age of a Midwest League Hitter is 21.3 years old... The average age of a Midwest League Pitcher is 21.9 years old... The average age of a Florida State League Hitter is 22.8 years old... The average age of a Florida State League Pitcher is 23.2 years old...

A nice article on Travis Harrison by Perfect Game, the amateur talent organization that 1.) if the namesake of the Cedar Rapids stadium (Perfect Game Field), and 2.) Is located right across the street from the stadium. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8336

The only argument he had was if any of the runners didn't touch the next base. Like I said, I'm sure they called it right. Just feel bad because of the non-home run. Not that that is a big deal big picture. I really like Harrison's swing. Along with Buxton, the two hitters I'm most intrigued by are Harrison and Walker, in terms of huge power potential. As was pointed out above, it's not just about those top 8 or 9 prospects. There are a lot of prospects who have a chance to be big leaguers that aren't even considered top ten types.

I kind of feel bad for Harrison. I mean, players only hit so many home runs. I get the excitement, but jump all over him after he reaches home plate! Also, it's great to see Kyle Gibson continuing to get better each time out.

Matt Tomshaw is going back into the rotation. Burris will pitch out of the bullpen.

The best managers were not necessarily the best players... to paraphrase a phrase, "those who can, play. Those who can't... coach."