Seth Stohs

One of my fantasy leagues started its draft this past week, so I thought it might be a good time to start writing a little about fantasy baseball. I will likely participate in three or four leagues this year, and each is a little bit different. One of my leagues is a keeper league with major and minor league rosters. It is a 5x5 roto league. Another league is a weekly head-to-head, points league. Another league is only on the weekend. I’m in one ten team league and two 14-team leagues. There are American or National League only leagues. Fantasy baseball is so much fun, but there are so many formats, so be sure to understand the system before your draft. One thing that is always interesting to me is to see where Twins players will be drafted in fantasy leagues. In recent years, there have been quite a few Twins players who went high in drafts. This season, there are several Twins players who will be drafted, but fantasy owners will have to consider risk-reward when selecting many of them. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Catchers Two years ago, Joe Mauer was a Top 5 pick in most fantasy league formats. Even last year, he was taken in the first two rounds in most drafts. In 2012, he will likely be the third catcher from the AL Central to be drafted, behind Cleveland’s Carlos Santana and Detroit’s Alex Avila. He should also be drafted behind Brian McCann. At that point, however, Mauer falls in line now with the likes of Mike Napoli, Matt Weiters, Miguel Montero. Depending upon your confidence in his return from injuries, you could take him in the 5th round, or he could slide several rounds. Because he is eligible at catcher and will likely be an everyday player, Ryan Doumit should be considered a sleeper in many leagues. If you draft two catchers, take a flyer on him in the late rounds. Mauer and Doumit will likely have some position flexibility depending upon your league’s rules. Infielders Two years ago, Justin Morneau was a first-round fantasy selection. Last year, he still was drafted high because few knew believed his concussion would drag on as long as it did. At this point, Morneau should not be drafted in the first 15 rounds because of the risk and because there are so many good offensive first basemen. He could be taken as a late-round sleeper pick and just hope that he can stay healthy and eventually return to his typical production. If Alexi Casilla performs like he did after mid-May last year, and up until his season was cut short with injury, he’d be worth a last-round flyer as depth in the middle infield, eligible at shortstop and second base. Jamey Carroll is an on-base machine with eligibility at both middle infield positions, but his lack of power probably keeps him from being drafted. If you believe Danny Valencia will play like he did in 2010, he’s worth a late round pick as the backup 3B for your roster. Outfielders As it relates to the Twins outfielders, their fantasy value is going to be different based on the type of league. If your league is heavy on on-base percentage and home runs, then Josh Willingham could be a middle-round option. If Stolen Bases are one of your categories, then Ben Revere and his quest for 80-100 steals could be taken fairly early (maybe even as early as the 8th round or so). Denard Span is the most well-rounded of the trio providing extra base hits with on base percentage and some stolen bases. At the end of the day, in most leagues, all would probably be drafted around the same time, likely in rounds 14-18. Starting Pitchers Again, the type of league you are in and the scoring systems will dictate who gets drafted where. Do “Wins” matter? Do strikeouts and innings pitched matter? Are categories like ERA and WHIP included? Scott Baker is the Twins best pitcher, but there are likely going to be question marks surrounding his elbow and durability. He likely provides good ERA, WHIP and K/9. Francisco Liriano has the talent to be very good, but he is such an anomaly. If he is right, he has the ability to be a Top 10-15 pitcher in baseball. If he pitches like last year, you don’t want him on your roster. The goal with Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis will be to eat a lot of innings and not be too far below league average in terms of ERA. None will walk too many batters, but all will give up a lot of hits. I’d recommend Baker as an option around the 12th round with Liriano following a few rounds later. Unless you have a very deep league, the other three starters likely would not be drafted. Relief Pitchers We all know that Matt Capps was pretty bad in 2011. But from a fantasy baseball perspective, he is a viable draft option as a closer. All closers accumulate Saves. Capps does so by walking so few that he generally has a low WHIP. And, through most of his career, he has posted very good ERA. His 2011 strikeout rate is alarming. As it relates to your fantasy baseball draft, Capps should be one of the final relievers drafted. In fact, a couple of set up men like Kenley Jansen should probably be drafted ahead of Capps. In fact, you’ll need to consider whether or not you think Glen Perkins will take over the closer role at some point or not. Prospects A year ago, Kyle Gibson was drafted in some fantasy baseball drafts. The thought was that he would be called up in June and be a difference-maker the final four months of the season. In 2012, there are not any Twins minor leaguers that should be drafted at this time. That said, there are some to put on your Watch List right away. If the Twins need a starting pitcher, Liam Hendriks could be the first called up. If Justin Morneau is out, see if the Twins go to Chris Parmelee to replace him. And, if there is a need in the outfield, the Twins could go to Joe Benson. SUMMARY Based on my above thoughts, here is a summary of where Twins players could be drafted in an average 12-14 team league with 24 rounds. Joe Mauer (Rounds 5-8) Scott Baker (Rounds 12-15) Josh Willingham (Rounds 12-15) Denard Span (Rounds 14-16) Francisco Liriano (Rounds 14-16) Ben Revere (Rounds 15-17 – Top 10 rounds if SB are valued in your league) Ryan Doumit (Rounds 16-18) Justin Morneau (Rounds 20-22) Matt Capps (Rounds 21-23) Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll, Danny Valencia, Carl Pavano (Rounds 23-24) Please feel free to discuss.

Joel Zumaya impressed local media throwing in the bullpen, but abruptly ended his session, walking off the mound with trainer Rick McWane. Zumaya said he was OK but later GM Terry Ryan acknowledged that Zumaya had felt discomfort on the inside of his elbow. He will undergo an MRI on Sunday. Zumaya has a lengthy injury history, including missing all of last year with an elbow injury that happened in his first spring training start. The Twins signed Zumaya in January to a one year, non-guaranteed, Major League contract. It is worth $800,000 with incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster. If he does not make the Opening Day roster, the team will pay him $400,000. Share your thoughts and comments in the Forum. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

“There comes a point when you can only torture yourself so long.” Those are the words of Justin Morneau (courtesy Phil Mackey of 1500espn on Twitter), uttered just this morning while speaking to reporters for the first time since reporting yesterday to Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers. Today the Twins will hold their first full squad workout of spring training. Mackey tweeted Morneau’s quotes, “I don’t know if I can be a full, 100 percent go, but I’m going to go out there and participate in everything and take it day by day.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The quotes are pretty straight-forward. Clearly, Morneau is not completely past concussion symptoms (not a surprise, I don't think). To me, it sounds like he is a guy who has decided to just go all-out until he can’t again. It’s like a pitcher with some elbow soreness who decides that he is just going to air-it-out on his bullpen sessions until it either feels better or snaps. There has never been any question about Justin Morneau’s toughness or his willingness to play with pain. It sounds like he has worked hard and is in good shape. But concussions are not something with which one messes around. Morneau has a young family and is just 30 years old. He has, hopefully, another 60 years left on this earth to spend with them, so it is understandable that he wants to be able to enjoy those years. At the same time, Morneau came in on Thursday and took a full round of batting practice. He said he is going to work out with the team today. He sounds like he is feeling good right now, but based on what he has experienced the last couple of years, he doesn’t know how he will feel tomorrow, or next week or sometime next month. Morneau sounds like a man who is ready to take that retirement step should he go through another concussion. And frankly, I don’t blame him at all. Baseball is a great game. We all love the Twins. Morneau was an MVP who led this team through several very good years. We all appreciate that. He has earned enough money already that his family’s needs will be met. I've said throughout the offseason that I thought anything the Twins got from Morneau in 2012 should be considered a bonus, and my opinion doesn't change based on these quotes. I certainly am hopefully he can be close to what he was in his best days. But don’t give up on Justin Morneau and the Twins just yet. Let’s see how this plays out. For now, he’s ready to go, excited for spring and hopeful for another strong season. That’s what Twins fans should hope for. He also clearly has had some very difficult discussions with himself and those close to him and is realistic as well.

Over the next several months, Twins fans are going to hear a lot about the June MLB draft, and for good reason. The Twins have the #2 overall pick and five picks in the Top 100. Coming off of a 99 loss season, and having a middle-of-the-pack minor league system, it is important to take advantage of the draft. In coming months, you’ll read names like Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito, Devin Marrero, Byron Buxton and Mike Zunino frequently. Today I wanted to look at the draft a little differently. It is said that it usually takes five or six years to start judging a team’s draft. I would contend that it really takes ten years. Consider that some high school players who are drafted don’t get to the big leagues for eight or nine seasons. Consider there are players that don’t sign and go to college for three years before getting drafted again. It takes them several years sometimes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Yes, for the below report, I am going to include players that the Twins drafted but did not sign who made it to the big leagues. Seeing talent, and future big league talent, is what scouting is all about. Some late-round picks haven’t signed and went to college. There are some players that the Twins have redrafted. There are other players that the Twins have drafted but didn’t sign who they have brought in later as free agents or in trades. To start, I’ll give a more detailed look at the Twins 2002 draft and show how many of the 50 draft picks made it to each level. After that, I’ll show how many players from each year’s Twins draft have made it to the big leagues. I’ll go back to 1987 as that is when many of the current Twins scouts and scouting directors began working with the Twins. The 2002 Draft: For the players who were drafted and signed in 2002, 2012 will be their 11th professional season. There is some chance that one or maybe two more players will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues. MLB Players (9): Denard Span (1), Jesse Crain (2), Clete Thomas (5), Pat Neshek (6), Adam Lind (8), Kyle Phillips (10), Evan Meek (11), Jeff Clement (12), Garrett Mock (14). AAA (7): Ricky Barrett (7), Doug Deeds (9), Josh Petersen (24), James Avery (29), Toby Gardenhire (38), Brock Peterson (49), Mike Ballard (50) AA (5): Adam Harben (15), Adam Daniels (19), Danny Matienzo (23), Christian Castorri (34), Kyle Geiger (42) A (10): Bo Pettit (13), Adam Hawes (17), Ryan Schreppel (20), TJ Prunty (21), Justin Keeling (25), Ron Perodin (27), Hasan Rasheed (28), Roberto Martinez (30), Tarrence Pattersen (35), John Cahill (36) Ten players peaked in Rookie Ball, and nine players that didn’t sign did not play in affiliated baseball again. Among them was their 45th round pick, a pitcher from Holy Angels HS in Minnesota named John Stocco, who went to Wisconsin and became their quarterback. TJ Prunty is another St. Paul kid who the Twins drafted out of high school, but he went down to Miami to play football before the Twins drafted him again. Three of the players who have peaked at AAA are still playing. Without looking at all teams for a decade of drafts, it is impossible to put this into context, but my assumption is that this breakdown would put the Twins and their scouts in a positive light. Big Leaguers from Twins Drafts (1987-2001) 2001 (5): Joe Mauer (1), Jose Morales (3), Kevin Cameron (13), Matt Macri (17), Nick Blackburn (29) 2000 (8): Adam Johnson (1), Aaron Heilman (1s), JD Durbin (2), Jason Miller (4), Josh Rabe (11), Jason Kubel (12), Paul Maholm (17), Daniel Davidson (28) 1999 (8): Rob Bowen (2), Justin Morneau (3), Brian Wolfe (6), Brian Slocum (14), Travis Bowyer (20), Willie Eyre (23), Terry Tiffee (26), Pat Neshek (45) 1998 (7): Saul Rivera (9), Mike Gosling (14), JJ Putz (17), Kevin Thompson (18), Juan Padilla (24), Kevin Frederick (34), Tommy Watkins (38) 1997 (7): Michael Cuddyer (1), Matthew LeCroy (1s), Michael Restovich (2), Kevin Frederick (17), JC Romero (21), Adam Johnson (25), Nick Punto (33) 1996 (9): Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2), Chad Allen (4), Michael Ryan (5), Chad Moeller (7), Mike Lincoln (13), Matt Kata (20), Mike Lamb (31), Josh Bard (35) 1995 (6): Mark Redman (1), AJ Hinch (3), Doug Mientkiewicz (5), Mike Moriarity (7), Robert Ramsay (17), Jeff Harris (28) 1994 (7): Todd Walker (1), Travis Miller (1s), Cleatus Davidson (2), AJ Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26), Brandon Puffer (27), Brian Lawrence (39) 1993 (14): Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Dan Perkins (2), Javier Valentin (3), Benj Sampson (4), Kelly Dransfeldt (7), Kevin Ohme (9), Alex Cora (12), Ryan Radmanovich (14), Danny Kolb (17), Shane Bowers (21), Rod Radlosky (22), Emil Brown (27), Lance Carter (41). 1992 (6): Dan Serafini (1), Gus Gandarillos (3), Dan Naulty (14), Scott Watkins (23), Gary Matthews (38), Craig Dingman (50). 1991 (7): David McCarty (1), Scott Stahoviak (1s), Mike Durant (2), LaTroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13), Tim Davis (34) 1990 (11): Todd Ritchie (1), Midre Cummings (1), Jayhawk Owens (2), Rich Becker (3), Brent Brede (5), James Mouton (8), Pat Meares (12), Jeff Granger (14), Damian Miller (20), Eddie Guardado (21), Brian Raabe (41) 1989 (10): Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Derrick White (23), Tim Urbani (29), Denny Hocking (52). 1988 (7): Alan Newman (2), Steve Dunn (4), Pat Mahomes (6), Doug Simons (9), JT Bruett (11), Scott Stahoviak (27), Aaron Sele (37) 1987 (9): Willie Banks (1), Terry Jorgensen (2), Larry Casian (6), Mark Guthrie (7), Shawn Gilbert (12), Chip Hale (17), Dan Smith (22), Bret Boone (28), Craig Paquette (36). Obviously this is only one way to judge a draft. Ideally teams will want an All-Star or two to come out of every draft, but that’s not realistic. The draft and scouting is such an inexact science. It is also such an important part of building a roster and an organization. Not all players are going to be All-Stars, but it is important to have role players too.

Players with less than three years of major league service time will typically sign one year, two-way contracts. Now that spring training has started, expect many of the Twins players to sign such contracts in the next week. These two-way contracts are for a certain dollar value if the player is in the big leagues, and another (significantly smaller) dollar value if they are playing in the minor leagues. The Two-Way Contract means that a player is EITHER making $X in the big leagues OR $(X – LOTS) in the minor leagues. With Terry Ryan at the helm and so many difficult questions to be answered when the season starts, it appears that the Twins have set up a Two-Way Planning system for the 2012 season. How it plays out will be determined by a series of EITHER/OR scenarios. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The biggest EITHER/OR scenario is will the Twins be able to complete for a division title in 2012? We can all make assumptions, but we don’t know, and there are so many factors. FACTORS The health of Joe Mauer The health of Justin Morneau The health of Denard Span The elbow of Scott Baker The durability of Carl Pavano The mindset and performance of Francisco Liriano The improvements of Danny Valencia, Ben Revere and other young players Matt Capps ability to get outs in the 9th 2-5 bullpen arms need to step up and contribute consistently well. Minor Leaguers coming up and contributing when needed throughout the season (Hendriks, Diamond, Gutierrez, Guerra, Waldrop, Oliveros, Benson, Parmelee, Dozier, etc.) Each one of those ten Factors was a factor whether or not the Twins brought in any free agents. If seven or eight of those factors wind up positive for the Twins, they have a chance to compete. NEW VARIABLES Josh Willingham – The outfielder will likely replace the offensive production of Michael Cuddyer and play about as well defensively. He has a career track record of walking a lot, striking out a lot and hitting a bunch of home runs. Jamey Carroll – the middle infielder should help solidify an infield defense that was pretty atrocious last year. He also perfectly profiles as a #2 hitter due to a very good on-base percentage. Ryan Doumit – Likely becomes the team’s #2 starting catcher meaning he should start most of the games that Joe Mauer doesn’t behind the plate. On other days, he should get a lot of time as a DH, at 1B and even in RF. Offensively, he should add plenty of extra base hits. Jason Marquis – Although many Twins fans did not like this acquisition (and I’m not wild about it myself), Marquis has put together a pretty solid career. He was even pretty good last year in Washington (9-5, 3.95 ERA) before being traded to Arizona where he hurt his leg. He strikes out about as many Pavano. Let’s hope that he can eat that many innings! Joel Zumaya - The ultimate in ‘injury risk,’ Zumaya hasn’t pitched in nearly two years. However, he had a good throwing session in front of a lot of scouts. He still throws pretty hard. It will be very interesting to see how the Twins use him and how much he has to contribute. Although none of the above are All-Stars (with the possible exception of Willingham), they are the types of players that will compliment the roster well. The Two-Way Plan All of that background gets us to The Two-Way Plan for July. Because we don’t know for sure how it will play out, they will need to be written as IF/THEN statements. Scenario One IF seven or eight of the factors listed above are going positively, AND the Twins are getting positive performances from their minor leaguers and these new players, AND the team is in contention in mid-July, THEN they will have plenty of payroll flexibility to add a significant piece or two at the deadline, if they choose. Scenario Two However, IF things are not going well, AND they are enduring another year of injuries to key players, AND players are not stepping up as needed, AND the Twins find themselves well out of contention in July, THEN they have accumulated a lot of trade pieces to start a more rapid rebuilding plan. Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis and Francisco Liriano are all free agents at the end of the season. They could be traded. Scott Baker has an option at just over $9 million. He could be traded. Alexi Casilla, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll could both be traded to a contender needing to fill a role. If the Twins sour on any of their players that are out of options, they could be traded. The Twins have a $100 million payroll, so they are saying the right things, saying that they believe that with accountability, healthy and performance, they can compete. They have done so while also being in a position to go to a full-blown rebuild if the situation presents itself. I don’t know if that strategy is intentional, but the roster sets up to accommodate either option.