Seth Stohs

That the Twins locked up Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to long-term extensions doesn’t give us any clue what it might take to lock up other young, core Twins players. We only know that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made it clear that there have been other conversations with other players. But also in the last week, two young All-Star pitchers signed long-term extensions which will keep them with their current teams through and potentially beyond their arbitration years. AARON NOLA - PHILLIES The Phillies signed 25-year-old RHP Aaron Nola to a four year, $45 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out three arbitration seasons, a free agent season and possibly a second free agent season. Nola was the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. He debuted with the Phillies in 2015 and went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts. In 2016, he went 6-9 with 4.78 ERA in 20 starts. However, he took off in 2017. He went 12-11 with a 3.54 ERA. He finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting in 2018 when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 212 1/3 innings over 33 starts. Over 380 1/3 innings in the last two seasons he struck out 408 batters (9.7 K/9). LUIS SEVERINO - YANKEES The Yankees signed RHP Luis Severino to a four year, $40 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out his four arbitration seasons and provides an option for his first free agent season. Severino made his MLB debut in 2015 when he went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA. However, in 2016, he went just 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA over 22 games (11 starts). However, in 2017, he made 31 starts and went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 193 1/3 innings. He finished third in the American League Cy Young vote that season. In 2018, he was 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts. Over 384 2/3 innings in the last two seasons, he struck out 450 batters (10.5 K/9). JOSE BERRIOS - TWINS The Twins 2018 All-Star will turn 25 in late May. He made his debut in 2016 and in 14 starts, he went 3-7 with an ERA of 8.02. He came back better in 2017. In 26 games (25 starts), he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA. In 2018, he made 32 starts and went 12-11 with a 3.84 ERA. Over these past two seasons, he has thrown a combined 341 strikeouts in 338 innings of work (9.1 K/9). TIMING IS EVERYTHING As you can see from the above, Berrios is essentially one year behind Severino and Nola in terms of service time. 2019 was the first arbitration season for both Nola and Severino. In Severino’s case, it was his first of four arbitration seasons. Berrios will have three arbitration years, starting in 2020. While Berrios has had two straight seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs and an All-Star Game appearance, Severino and Nola each has had a third-place Cy Young finish, better ERAs (in their past two seasons) and a higher strikeout rate. That said, most believe that there is more potential in Berrios’s arm and we all hope to see that in 2019. If that is the case and he puts up a mid-2s ERA instead of a mid-3s ERA, Berrios will be in the same position as Nola and Severino were this year when they signed their extensions. In other words, if we look at the extensions of Nola and Severino on a year-by-year basis, Berrios should be slightly below those numbers, though he should ask for the same type of numbers. What might a potential Jose Berrios extension look like relative to the Nola and Severino deals? In the below chart, we look at the actual year-by-year breakdown of the Nola and Severino contracts. The third column shows how a similarly-built Berrios contract might look. The final column shows how that contract could be front loaded (similar to Max Kepler’s Unique Contract). NOTE: A1 (1st arbitration season), FA (Free Agent), PA (Pre-Arbitration), O$ (Option Year) So what do you think? A five year, $41 million contract for Jose Berrios? If the option was to be picked up, it would be approximately a six year, $53 million contract. Even if Berrios’s option is picked up, he would be a free agent at the age of 30 and able to get another big deal.

Age: 19 (DOB: 6-5-1999) 2018 Stats (Low-A/High-A): .292/.352/.451 (.803), 29-2B, 14-HR, 28/36 SB ETA: 2020 2018 Ranking: 1 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 9 |MLB: 5 | ESPN: 9 |BP: 8 |FG: 6 What’s To Like A lot. To show that, let’s take a look at where Lewis is in terms of the standard scouting tools (Hit, Hit for Power, Speed, Defense, Arm) and then add some more. HIT - Lewis has a good approach at the plate. While he generally knows the strike zone and doesn’t extend too much, he also is aggressive inside the zone. He stands at the plate, relaxed, and as the pitcher begins his delivery, he uses a big leg kick/lift. However, as you can see from the below picture, he remains very balanced. In the next photo, you can see that as his front foot touches the ground, his hands are ready to explode to the pitch and his weight transfers. https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/975328810831941633 He is aggressive and yet he rarely takes a swing that looks out of control. He doesn’t strike out real often (15.0% in Cedar Rapids and 16.8% in Ft. Myers). He will use the whole field, though he typically has shown much more power to his pull side. Very few hit .300 in MLB anymore, but he could be a .280-.300 type of hitter. HIT FOR POWER - Through the first 32 games of the season, Lewis was hitting .305, but he had just four doubles and one home run. Many were clamoring for him to be promoted to Ft. Myers because he had spent 18 games with the Kernels to end 2017. Over his next 43 games with the Kernels, the power arrived. He hit .323, but he added 19 doubles and eight home runs. He earned his promotion to the Miracle, and while he struggled some, he showed really good power in the pitcher-friendly parks for the Florida State League. In 46 games, he hit six doubles, three triples and knocked five home runs. (For comparison’s sake, Alex Kirilloff had seven homers in 65 games for the Miracle) While 30 home runs may be excessive, but Lewis could be a 20-25 homer per year guy during his big league career. SPEED - Byron Buxton. Who is the one player in the Twins organization who might - might! - be faster than Royce Lewis. As important as the pure speed, Lewis knows how to utilize his speed on the baseball diamond. His 28 stolen bases led the organization. He was caught just eight times and he is still learning the finer points. He is able to go from first-to-home or first-to-third really well. He also shows good instincts most of the time on the bases. He also uses his speed on defense. DEFENSE - Lewis has good range both up the middle and deep into the 5.5 hole. There are times when he winds up (no, not like Shawon Dunston for those of you who are in my age category) a little bit. He does a really nice job going back on pop ups and he takes leadership on the infield, another important trait for a shortstop. Tom Froemming put Lewis's defense under the Prospect Spotlight. Take a look below. In the video, I was at the game in Cedar Rapids when he made the running catch down the left field line. First, it reminded me of Derek Jeter, but when he caught it and knew it was a great catch, he had a Griffey Jr-like smile. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pNhG2RIZkI ARM - Lewis has a strong arm. He can make all of the throws. For those that think his future may be better out in center field, he has plenty of arm to play out there. INTANGIBLES - Lewis is a natural leader. By that I mean that he doesn’t have to work to lead, but teammates gravitate to him. He has a great charisma that plays well on the field and in the clubhouse. Lewis works hard. He added weight last season through a regimented lifting program in-season. He’s got good size. He’s tall and he’s strong but he has added the size and strength without losing any speed. In addition, Lewis never takes a play off. He hustles out every grounder. He looks to take second on singles to the outfield. He has instincts. And while some may not think that it matters, but when you watch Royce Lewis play baseball and practice, you can see the joy that he has, the love of the game. It is an intangible, but it is one of the reasons that Francisco Lindor is so much fun to watch and cheer for even if he is on the Twins top competitor. What’s Left To Work On The easy response for Lewis as far as things he needs to work out would be the cliche, “He needs to continue working on everything” or “He just needs more at-bats” or “He just needs more real-time situations on defense.” Well, let’s just say that cliches usually become cliches for a reason, because they’re true. Lewis does simply need more at-bats. He needs to continue working up the ladder and seeing pitchers with better command of their pitch mix. He needs to see more sharp sliders down and away so that he can keep working on trying to lay off of them. There are still question marks about Lewis’s defense. While I’ve talked to several people who saw him play in 2018 that said he took big strides and there is more of a certainty that he can be at least an average defensive shortstop. There are still some scouts who think that his speed and instinct would best play in center field. Lewis can make the great play. As noted, he has great range and can make the great plays. He just needs to keep working and be more consistent on the routine plays and the routine throws. Again, needs more time at shortstop and more opportunities. What makes Lewis so exciting as a prospect is that he does everything so well already. But what makes him so intriguing is knowing that he can still improve all areas of his game (even quite a bit in some places). While he is ahead of the pace at this point in this career than top young shortstops Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, the Twins can be as patient as they need to be. What’s Next Royce Lewis is traveling to Ft. Myers today and will report as a non-roster invite to Minnesota Twins spring training. He will get the opportunity to work with and learn from the veterans, and also work with and be seen by the big-league coaches. With just 46 games in High-A Ft. Myers, plus a playoff run that that led to a Florida State League championship, it is likely that he will begin the season with the Miracle. It is very likely that he will spend most of his season with the Blue Wahoos in Pensacola. While I think that the odds are low that Lewis surfaces in the big leagues in 2019, I wouldn’t put anything past him. With Jorge Polanco now signed long-term, Jonathan Schoop set to spend the year in a Twins uniform, and Nick Gordon in Triple A, the Twins do not need to rush this talented prospect in 2019. I would not be surprised if Lewis is the Twins Opening Day shortstop and #2 hitter when they open the 2020 season (though being promoted 20 days later might make more economic sense). Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 19. Jorge Alcala, RHP 18. LaMonte Wade, OF 17. Zack Littell, RHP 16. Gilberto Celestino, OF 15. Yunior Severino, 2B 14. Ben Rortvedt, C 13. Ryan Jeffers, C 12. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 11. Nick Gordon, SS 10. Akil Baddoo, OF 9. Blayne Enlow, RHP 8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 7. Jhoan Duran, RHP 6. Brent Rooker, 1B/LF 5. Wander Javier, SS 4. Trevor Larnach, OF 3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 2. Alex Kirilloff, OF TD Top Prospect: #1- Royce Lewis Get to know more about Royce Lewis and many more minor league players in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. ORDER NOW: 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (paperback, $17.99) ORDER NOW: 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (eBook, $12.99) The 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook goes in-depth and provides player bios, scouting reports, statistics and much more on almost 160 Twins minor leaguers.

Signed just nine days after Jorge Polanco in July of 2009, the German-born Max Kepler is finalizing the terms on a contract extension. Phil Miller has more specifics on the deal with includes bumping up his 2019 salary significantly. He gradually worked his way up the minor league system, spending a second year at Elizabethton. He was the Twins minor league player of the year when he was named MVP of the Southern League in 2015. After the Lookouts won that Southern League title, he was called up to the big leagues and singled off of Johnny Cueto (then of the Royals) for his first major-league hit. He came back up to the Twins in early 2016 and since mid-season that year, he has been a fixture in the Twins lineup. A terrific defensive right fielder, Kepler also showed that he can play a quality centerfield as well. Offensively, he hit a career-high 20 homers in 2018. While his batting average dropped to .224 in 2018, he showed improvement against left-handed pitching and walked much more. Kepler just recently turned 26 and has been able to remain healthy through his early career. Last month, he agreed to a $3.125 million contract in his first of four arbitration years. With this deal, the Twins have bought out his four arbitration seasons plus one year of free agency and allowed for a second year. A 10:00 Eastern time press conference is scheduled in Ft. Myers. Could more extensions be in the works?