Seth Stohs

The 2019 Minnesota Twins offense put up some historic numbers. On Tuesday, we learned that the team had added one of the best hitters over the last dozen years to the already-strong lineup. Twins fans got excited, thinking about the offensive numbers the team could produce. At the same time, many quickly jumped back to asking if the team still needs to add more pitching.Clearly the Twins went into the offseason hoping to add a top starting pitcher. Use the word “impact” if you like. The two impact starters on the free agent market weren’t coming here (Cole, Strasburg). Two of the free agent starters who fit in that next tier (Bumgarner and Wheeler) went elsewhere for non-baseball and non-dollar reasons. And it appears that the Twins just didn’t (understandably) want to give Hyun-Jin Ryu a fourth year. With that, they shifted their attention to adding to an already-great offense. They gave Josh Donaldson a guaranteed $92 million over the next four years, and an option for 2024 that makes it pretty likely he is retained. I am often told by Twins fans to expect the offense and several of its hitters to regress in 2020. First, my assumption is that something will be done with the baseball, which may reduce some offensive numbers, but that will be across the board, for all teams. And yes, teams will have more data points to develop a way to attack the Twins hitters. So, regression for some and for the whole, is certainly possible. However, much of the Twins offense is made up of a core of players between 22-year-old Luis Arraez and 29-year-old Silver Slugger Mitch Garver. And none of them had seasons that were so far out of the realm of their potential that makes you think that any regression would have to be major. Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler all had strong seasons, but none of them outside of what we thought they could do when they were prospects. Silver Slugger Nelson Cruz is going to turn 40 during the season. It’s silly to expect him to put up the same kind of numbers he put up in 2019, but his approach and his strength should still produce really good numbers in the middle of a lineup. Josh Donaldson replaces CJ Cron in the lineup. While he is older, he’s been one of the greatest hitters in baseball. If healthy, he should continue to put up eye-popping numbers. Injuries? Yes, injuries happen and they aren’t necessarily easy or possible to predict. But, there is one good way to alleviate some of those concerns. The first is simply to have depth. The Twins have depth. Simply in the form of Marwin Gonzalez there is depth. He can play the corner infield and corner outfield spots. LaMonte Wade and Jake Cave can man the outfield spots when needed. Ehire Adrianza is a terrific utility infielder. Alex Avila is the backup catcher. And there are prospects, high-caliber prospects at each position, who are close to MLB-ready. The Twins were able to keep Jake Odorizzi away from free agency for one more year by offering him the $17.8 million Qualifying Offer (and him accepting it). They also retained the services of right-hander Michael Pineda for the next two years. He will finish the final 39 games of his suspension and rejoin the team in mid-May. Jose Berrios is entering his Age-26 season. He will need to figure out August, but there’s a lot to be excited about it, and there is potential for him to find another level. Jake Odorizzi found his next level in 2019. Michael Pineda, at the time he was suspended, was being talked about as a possible Game 1 starter in the playoffs. That’s a solid first three. Homer Bailey? No, not exciting, but he has certainly had his moments. And, he was really good in the second half of 2019. Rich Hill? Man, if only he could stay healthy. Over the last five years, he has been a top 10-15 starting pitcher in baseball. Of course, he won’t be back until at least June after elbow surgery. There is no way to know how that recovery and rehab will go with 100% confidence. But they got him for a great contract and even if he’s back by the end of July, and can get close to what he’s been in recent years, that’s a nice pitcher to have in August, September and October. Can the Twins get the best out of him? With Hill and Pineda unable to start the season on the active list, the rotation will contain Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey and… Well, for right now, that answer comes down to about four options; Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer. Yes, Blaine Hardy will be at spring training. Jhoan Duran is on the 40-man roster, so he’ll be at big-league spring training for a while. There may be other names mentioned early in spring training. But for all intents and purposes, it comes down to those four pitchers. All four pitched in the big leagues in 2019. Randy Dobnak: He was the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2019 when he pitched in Ft. Myers, Pensacola, Rochester and ended the season with the Twins, pitching well enough in September to earn a Game 2 start in the playoffs. It didn’t go well, but it shouldn’t minimize how much he grew and improved over the course of the season. And, in addition to being a good story, he’s a good pitcher too. Lewis Thorpe: He was the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2018. He spent most of 2019 in Rochester but came up a couple of times. He made a few starts and also pitched out of the bullpen. He had some good games and some not-so-good games, but what he did well is miss bats. Devin Smeltzer: He moved back into a starting role in 2019 and started in Pensacola. A month later he was in Rochester, and before the end of May, he made his major-league debut and it went very well. He was a frequent guest on the Rochester-to-Minneapolis travel list but experienced success in a variety of roles in the big leagues. Brusdar Graterol: He came up for September and worked out of the bullpen. He was off to a good start last year in AA, but he missed nearly three months in the middle of the season with a shoulder injury. He came back in the bullpen so that he could be called up and his triple-digit fastball could help the Twins late. He will be on some sort of innings plan, but most would think that it’d be ideal for him to continue developing as a starter. Could that be as a ‘Primary’ pitcher, or could he just be a regular starter until Pineda comes back, or until Hill returns? Derek Falvey is often given a lot of credit for the pitching development in Cleveland. We have seen them continue to develop a pipeline of quality starters. Several of their current pitchers were not top prospects when they came up but certainly have developed into that status. Corey Kluber might just be the best example of that development plan and process, though he will be with the Rangers in 2020. So, should we believe in Derek Falvey’s track record? Should we trust the processes that have been initiated by Falvey along with pitching guru Josh Kalk and minor league pitching coordinator Paul Maki, and each of the minor league coaches and coordinators brought in? How about their utilization of technologies in recent years? Why not give these guys a chance? Herein lies the question from today’s title, Do the Twins need to add another starter? In my opinion, the answer is obvious. No, they don’t NEED to add another starter. With this offense, the team will win a lot of games. Their top two pitchers (Berrios, Odorizzi) are good. Bailey certainly can be good. And, four young pitchers who got time in 2019 are certainly capable of being solid, and a few of them have the potential to be pretty good. Having that offensive support should certainly encourage them to throw a lot of strikes. Pineda will be back. Hill should be back a little later. But, it isn’t that simple. While they don’t NEED to add another starter, Falvey and Thad Levine should continue to monitor the starting pitcher trade market. I don’t think Jon Gray or German Marquez are going to be available this offseason, but those are the caliber of pitcher that the team should show interest in. Y’all know I’m not at all high on Matt Boyd, but if the Twins research and development crew says that he could be a pitcher of the Berrios/Odorizzi/Pineda quality in 2020, maybe try that. There may be names that we haven’t even thought of that they could get. But don’t just add any more pitchers just to add more pitchers. If they’re going to make a move, make it a good one. Get a pitcher as good as Odorizzi, or better. If not, take your chances with a strong offense and a pretty solid starting rotation (and a pretty solid bullpen too, mind you). Continue to evaluate and teach those inexperienced pitchers, Get Pineda back. Get Hill back… And keep an eye on the phone, always looking to make a big addition in July… or June… or May! For much more on Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer, along with Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and about 90 other Twins minor league pitchers, order a copy of the 2020 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It is available in paperback or PDF ebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

No, it won't be for audition purposes, I don't think. Rocco will pick a guy that they'll use. But that'll be a spot for guys like Astudillo. They aren't going to stunt a prospect's growth to call them up as a minimal time player.

Thank you so much!

Thank you so much!! It's a lot of work, but I'm really proud of this year's book... and previous books too...

For me it would come down to who would the Twins have to drop from their 40-man roster in order to claim him. With the Donaldson signing, I assume that they will drop Ryne Harper. They have to drop someone. So, whoever who does that leave? Matt Wisler - he got a guaranteed $700K deal before arbitration, and he's intriguing yet, but he's out of options. Sean Poppen - I keep hearing his name, but I think he's got real talent, 97 mph fastball with movement and a sharp slider. While he could probably start, I think he can dominate out of the bullpen. No way I'd DFA him. Nick Gordon - with the signing of Donaldson, it's hard to imagine his path to the Twins minus a couple of infield errors in 2020. I'd rather have Gordon than this guy. So, for me, no thanks.

When Sano is engaged, he's a top player. He's an All Star. He's a 40 homer guy, a middle of the order back. He came up and he always wanted to be great. Not sure great but one of the best. He would talk about breaking homer records and such. I'm excited about what he can do going forward. And, frankly, three years isn't long... even if the Twins pick up the option, he can be a free agent again at 30.

I don't mind the idea, but I don't think it makes any sense for the Twins to do this... With White and Robert, there is a means of them getting to the big leagues quite quickly. With Lewis, he's probably not coming up until late 2020 or early 2021. Polanco and Donaldson (who wasn't signed when this article was written and published), there isn't a clear quick path. Kirilloff could have been 1B, but now that's a question mark unless Rosario is dealt. Same with Larnach. And, to be honest, Lewis and Kirilloff being Boras guys pretty much eliminates it already.

I don't even like Donaldson... but that lineup!!

Trevor Plouffe, as well:

The 2020 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook will be now available. By clicking here, you can order the paperback version of the PDF/E-Book version at Lulu.com. In addition, the promo code ONEFIVE will get you 15% off of all print books you order on Lulu.com (promo code is good through Thursday). In this link, you'll see previous Twins Prospect Handbooks are available.With the completion and availability of the 2020 Twins Prospect Handbook, I have now written and self-published a dozen Twins Prospect Handbooks. I think back to the first one, which I think I wrote up and published within about two or three weeks, and laugh. Since then, I truly believe that the handbooks have continued to get better and much more detailed, and that’s thanks to a lot of people. As much as I know that I enjoy researching and learning about the players, it is a ton of work. But I enjoy having the conversations with a variety of people inside and outside of the organization. I enjoy watching video. I enjoy reading other opinions. I enjoy going to Ft. Myers each spring and spending time watching minor league practice and games. I also enjoy getting down to Cedar Rapids for some games. However, ultimately, I also truly believe in that paragraph that I wrote in that 2008 prospect handbook and have included in every single Twins Prospect Handbook since then, including this year’s. Minor league baseball players are doing all the same work that the big leaguers do. They are just doing it with far less fanfare, smaller per diems, less luxurious travel and hotel arrangements, and noticeably lighter wallets due to pay checks with far fewer zeroes. These players deserve to be recognized too. It’s about the players. They deserve the recognition. They work hard. Sometimes that means a big league career, and sometimes it means peaking in A-ball. Tom Froemming wrote an article for this year’s Prospect Handbook about why it’s important to get to know more than just a team’s Top or Top 20, or even Top 40, prospects. A quick glimpse back at the Twins 2019 season reminds us that Luis Arraez asn’t a Top 10 Twins prospect just 12 months ago. Cody Stashak was recognized for his transition to the bullpen in 2018, he he didn’t rank as a Top 50 prospect. Randy Dobnak wasn’t a Top 50 prospect. Geez, how many Twins Top 100 prospect rankings would he have made one year ago. Which prospects will surprise and advance in 2020? Which top prospects will? The Twins system is currently really strong. There are four to six Twins prospects that are Top 100 guys nationally. There are a few others that are probably close to that level. And there is a ton of depth of players that have the ability to, if opportunity arises, be big league players. That makes the writing and researching and all the time well worth it! So, here is a quick look at what you will find if you order a copy of the 2020 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (which will again be available in paperback and as a PDF). THE COVER Finn Pearson, who has volunteered to do a lot of really good graphic work for Twins Daily the last couple of years, did a very nice job on the cover again this year. (He did last year’s too.) We talked about it and decided that baby blue was the way to go after the Twins announced they were bringing back those ‘80s uniforms in 2020. And, well, Pensacola sure had a lot of high-quality pitching prospects in 2019, didn’t they? Here are three of them; Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Brusdar Graterol. THE AUTHORS Seth Stohs - As mentioned above, this is my 12th annual Twins Prospect Handbook. Hard to believe. I wrote the Twins Daily Minor League Award winner articles, and a few other articles. Tom Froemming - This is Tom’s third Prospect Handbook. He wrote an article about how Twins fans need to look beyond the top 20 Twins prospects. We saw in 2019 that several players who did not come into the season as top prospects or even potential call-ups not only got called up, but contributed to the AL Central championship run. CONTRIBUTING WRITERS RT Rybak - The former mayor of Minneapolis contributed a great poem for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, and he was kind enough to also contribute a fantastic poem to the 2020 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook too. It’s titled, “All who Wander Javier,” and I know you’ll really enjoy it. . Steve Buhr - Steve wrote a fantastic article discussing the controversy going on between MLB and Minor League Baseball. He tries to see both sides of the story, and tries to answer what it might all mean. Ted Schwerzler - As he has done in recent years, Ted contributed an article in which he predicts which Twins prospects will make their debuts with the Twins in 2020 and when. Nash Walker - He has been contributing articles at Twins Daily recently, and he wrote an article on Jhoan Duran for the handbook. THE PROFILES We like to call the prospect profiles the meat and potatoes of the Prospect Handbook. There are about 170 profiles of Twins minor leaguers in the book. For those that have purchased Prospect Handbooks in the past, you have an idea of what the profiles look like and the information in each. For those of you who have not purchased previous Prospect Handbooks, well, you can buy previous Prospect Handbooks here. Ha! However, we wanted to include a profile here just to give you an idea of what you are getting. Here is a quick snip of a player profile. The header information includes height, weight, how they were acquired and their 2019 statistics. The 2019 Recaps were written by Tom Froemming and they, well, recap the player’s 2019 season. I (Seth) wrote up the Background and the Scouting Report sections. The Background covers their amateur days and previous seasons. The Scouting Report provides, well, a scouting report on the player. We also included a Forecast for ‘20 in which we try to give a good idea of where each player could spend the 2020 season. We have pictures of a lot of the players in the bios. I wish we had all, but we definitely want to thank all the photographers that were willing to let us use their photos. We used a lot of my photos, but I also want to thank Steve Buhr for his great photos from Cedar Rapids, Ft. Myers and the GCL Twins. The Elizabethton Twins photos came from Nicholas Badders or Kassi Butcher. So there you have it. The 2020 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is coming very soon. Keep checking back to Twins Daily and we will let you know when it is available and how you can order it. It’s something that Tom and I are really proud of. It just keeps getting bigger and better, and we hope that you will enjoy it too! Click here to view the article

Agreed. That was fun... though I think the Dustin Morse interview was great too.

Contract details now in the individual player sections.

Definitely still can happen.

Assuming we get actual dollar values, I'll update those in the article as well.

Per Heyman, the Twins did not reach a deal with Jose Berrios.

Right, but most years, there are a lot of settlements announced between the team and player and they're announced within minutes of the deadline, or before. And then soon after that, the numbers are exchanged and made public.

I have to say that I have never seen it like this before. Normally these deals come out right at the deadline. I haven't seen anything about the deadline being later than noon (central time)... It's crazy!

One hour... could be a crazy busy next hour.

At 11:00 this morning (Friday), teams and arbitration players will have to exchange numbers unless they are able to reach an agreement before that deadline. The Twins will have a busy morning as they have seven players to have these discussions with. Please use the comments section below to discuss Twins arbitration news of the day.Earlier in the offseason, the Twins had to make decisions on which players they would offer arbitration to. Players with less than six years of service time, and more than three years (and the top 30% of players with more than two years of service time are Super-2 players) are eligible for salary arbitration. At that time, the team non-tendered RHP Sam Dyson early in the process. They also non-tended CJ Cron, who has since signed with the Tigers. They also agreed to terms with infielder Ehire Adrianza and RHP Matt Wisler. Below are the players that will know a lot more about their 2020 salaries by this afternoon. They will either agree to terms before 11:00 (which is usually what happens), or at that time, the team and the player will make their "bids" for their 2020 salaries. If they are unable to agree to terms before their arbitration date, the two sides will go in front of an arbitration panel and have the 2020 salary determined. This also does not happen often. So let's get to the players. What you will see below is the MLB Trade Rumor projection, and also the Twins Daily projection (found in the Offseason Handbook). When we see that an agreement has been reached, we will also post that under each player's name. UPDATE (5:00 pm.) - more specifics will be posted below when details are available. https://twitter.com/...803718043684864 Feel free to discuss. Click here to view the article

Worked OK with Knoblauch in 1991... I'd be OK with going with Kirilloff, but i think he missed enough time last year at AA to let him get another half-season at Double-A and/or Triple-A levels before coming up.

Agreed, completely... Like I said in the first comment, I think that Thorpe could be as good as Boyd (in the next couple of years), and then to add a Larnach is just crazy... If that's what the Tigers are asking, then they aren't really trying to trade him.

I don't know if I would trade Lewis Thorpe straight-up for Matthew Boyd much less add a potential All Star like Larnach and a fast-rising SP option like Canterino. Three top ten Twins prospects for Chris Sale's horrible elbow and contract? I think the Twins would have to add something to Buxton to get Thor, but it shouldn't be a guy like Kirilloff. I would be good with Archer for Rooker and Gordon, I think.