Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Willihammer

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,383

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    At the risk of derailing this thread, and not offering any explanation why, I'd like to just remind everyone what Beane and Rizzo agreed to last year, because it is so ridiculous in comparison. Gio Gonzalez: 26, 3 years of team control remaining, 9.4 career RA9 wins over 3+ seasons. for right-handers Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole, and lefty Tommy Milone — plus catching prospect Derek Norris. Peacock, Cole and Norris ranked third, fourth and ninth, respectively, in Baseball America’s recent list of the Nationals’ top prospects.
  2. Willihammer
    Naturally, Florimon's a switch hitter and will need to bunt a lot. That's what the 2 hole guy does, he bunts. You don't want to be asking someone who can actually hit the ball, to bunt. That's what your 3 hole is for.
  3. Willihammer
    Obviously, at this moment, Revere is the inferior leadoff hitter. But how come in any Span v. Revere-as-trade-bait discussion the variables of cost and years of team control, and age, get thrown out the window? Value doesn't all boil down to a side by side comparison of OBP.
  4. Willihammer
    If the Nats take Span, that would make 4 beards in the outfield. Who sits out? I guess Morse has technically played the infield before but there's not much room there either.
  5. Willihammer
    http://deadspin.com/5932500/the-value-of-the-san-diego-padres-grew-300-million-in-three-years-because-baseball-owners-are-stupid Any economics minds have thoughts on the bubbles being created in pro sports by these gigantic TV deals? Is another taxpayer funded bailout looming?
  6. Willihammer
    Dang you BJ... for working next year someplace!
  7. Willihammer
    If you want to look at ERA, both Peavy and AJ Burnett were worse than Liriano in 2011, and 2010. Some guys rebound every year. Feldman, Santana, Wolf, Francis, Lowe - all are coming off worse seasons that Liriano in terms of ERA. So a 4-5m flyer on Liriano would not be out of line from what the market is shaping up to be for these guys.
  8. Willihammer
    I really think Mauer is the man they're looking for. Stick him there against righthanders, slot Plouffe to 2nd. Against lefties, put Plouffe at 3B and Dozier/Florimon at the open spot in MI. Problem solved. They could have solid pop against righthanded starters that way. Span (CF) Revere (RF) Mauer (3B) Willingham (LF) Morneau (1B) Doumit © Parmelee (DH) Plouffe (2B) Carroll (SS)
  9. Willihammer
    They could always trade Mauer for Valencia. I'll be here all nigh folks.
  10. Willihammer
    Its also interesting that Bill James, of Bill James projections, who is projecting Mauer to hit 317/407/452 next year, is a "senior advisor on baseball operations" for the Red Sox. Maybe he is sandbagging Mauer's 2013 projection so that the Twins FO will see that and expect less return in any trade negotiations? Bad joke, I apologize.
  11. Willihammer
    Mauer is appealing because you can pencil him in for a fixed cost and fixed production. How great would it be if the Twins had someone like that at SS? You can't pencil Mauer in for fixed playing time, but I think last season did a lot to alleviate those fears. He is only a little overpaid at the moment, but I suspect his decline will keep pace with the rate of salary inflation such that on balance he is paid at pretty much a fair market value all the way through to the end, with a possibility that he delivers surplus value by taking up 1B full time and playing in a park like Fenway, and is able to get 150+ games in every year. I can definitely see the appeal, and part of me wants to make make a deal just so Mauer can move out from the dish full time and extend his career.
  12. Willihammer
    I've been trying to figure out why Figgins' BABIP hit the floor. I see a few things: * IFFB% spiked in 2011 to 15.8% (career avg 8.0%) That's about it. His plate discipline, ground ball, line drive, and fly balls rates haven't changed much. He did make contact on 83.1% of out of zone balls in 2011, which was a career high. Mainly I think he's just slower. He didn't get a single infield hit in 2012. His bunt hit% is also down every year since 2009. SB's are obviously down too, though he has attempted fewer swipes.
  13. Willihammer
    Longoria is absolutely the face of the Rays brand. Rays ownership is taking advantage of the Marlins firesale to poach some SoFlo viewers in anticipation of negotiating a new TV deal in 2016 (final option year) and gain leverage in stadium negotiations - again by juxtaposing their style with Loria's.
  14. Willihammer
    Why is Musgrave calling for Ponder to line up in the shotgun on 3rd and short or 4th and short in the red zone? I counted 3 times where Ponder did that and all three were incompletions. It was the same in Washington, where we settled for 3 field goals instead of TD's in the red zone. It seems like it is a broadcast to the linebackers, "Hey, don't worry about the best player on the field, AP. Cover the tight ends and wide outs instead."
  15. Willihammer
    Yeah its normal for a pitcher who moves from the rotation to the pen to experience velocity gain and also to throw the fastball with greater frequency. +0.8 mph is somewhat unimpressive but for whatever reason, that gain plus better movement maybe, the whiffs went up. I would consider these starters who are aging and experiencing velocity decline to be a subset of the relief pitching dumpster, even if they don't always like to think of themselves as relievers (yet). Brett Myers may be another guy, although it looks like the Twins would stick him back into a starting role. I got the data from brooksbaseball via Oswalt's game log page on baseball-reference. The "Pitches" Column is linked to the pitcher/date page at brooksbaseball
  16. Willihammer
    Cory Burns of the Padres was also DFA'd yesterday. He does not look like much but he can strike people out.
  17. Willihammer
    Do you have a trade in mind?
  18. Willihammer
    I think the little Percy sideline blowup showed us a glimpse of a dynamic of this team. Percy knows he is the most overqualified, underpaid person in the lockerroom, an MVP candidate with a grudge against management. Meanwhile Ponder, and for that matter, Frazier, are company guys. Each was "promoted" into the QB coaching position, respectively. Beneficiaries of the TJ/Chilly firings, but they're not really there on merit. So in the rare event that Ponder doesn't give Percy his first look, and throws the ball incomplete, takes a sack, fumbles, or otherwise misreads a situation - in practice or in a game, Percy can lay into Christian a little more than he would into a Joe Webb who's not there on a scholarship, nor a Brett Favre who has Superbowl credentials. There's also the possibility that Percy is playing with an eye to getting out of Minnesota asap so he doesn't care how many bridges he burns while he's here. So, Ponder's a little ashamed, he wants to be Percy's friend, to play up to Percy's standards, and he overcompensates by forcing a few balls Percy's way. Not usually a problem since Percy is so good, but the side effect is that guys like Rudolf get overlooked. Basically, if the Vikings are the cast of the Office, I'd wager that Percy is Ryan, Ponder is Kelly, and Frazier is Michael Scott, and Rudolf is one of the guys in the warehouse. Just a theory.
  19. Willihammer
    Your guy Scott Boras has already worked this fact into his negotiations. Probably all the agents. If you think the FA SP market is spendy now, it is only going to get worse after that kicks in and the FA supply maybe isn't so deep.
  20. Willihammer
    You can view the page here: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?2173-2012-Roy-Oswalt-Relief-fastball-versus-SP-fastball I know last year he wanted to play for a contender but I doubt he'll be as sought after this offseason by most teams. Thoughts?
  21. Willihammer
    It was pretty obvious that Oswalt struggled as a starter down in Texas last year, earning him a couple different assignments to the bullpen. I went through his pitchf/x data for the season to differentiate Oswalt's effectiveness in the two roles and found some evidence that he could still be a valuable piece coming out of the pen in 2013. In a small sample, Oswalt's fastballs missed bats about twice as often when he was coming out of relief (15.93% versus 8.39%). I believe this is a good sign for Oswalt, because he's relied heavily on his fastballs for success over his career (64.2% frequency, +132.5 runs). https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-YWc5dVZJRXVrX00 http://i.imgur.com/DYFzm.png?1 Would Oswalt be worth pursuing? What should the Twins be willing to pay?
  22. Willihammer
    It was pretty obvious that Oswalt struggled as a starter down in Texas last year, earning him a couple different assignments to the bullpen. I went through his pitchf/x data for the season to differentiate Oswalt's effectiveness in the two roles and found some evidence that he could still be a valuable piece coming out of the pen in 2013. In a small sample, Oswalt's fastballs missed bats about twice as often when he was coming out of relief (15.93% versus 8.39%). I believe this is a good sign for Oswalt, because he's relied heavily on his fastballs for success over his career (64.2% frequency, +132.5 runs). https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5pIzP28qdp-YWc5dVZJRXVrX00 http://i.imgur.com/DYFzm.png?1 Would Oswalt be worth pursuing? What should the Twins be willing to pay?
  23. Willihammer
    Try stupid girl, or, a man needs a maid.
  24. Willihammer
    Good article by Dave Cameron on fangraphs today. "Why I'm not a fan of losing on purpose."
  25. Willihammer
    Parker, do you know Mauer's BABIP on ground balls when bases were empty, compared to BABIP on ground balls when there was a runner on 1b?
×
×
  • Create New...