Nick Nelson

I know there are some people complaining about coaches being brought up from within the organization rather than outside, but it seems worth noting that Rochester improved from 53 wins in 2011 to 72 wins in 2012 with the new coaching staff. This despite having basically their entire pitching staff called up to the majors.

Well, Tom Kelly, for one. Went through four straight 90-plus loss seasons from '97 to 2000 before turning things around in 2001 and then retiring.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2465[/ATTACH]After approaching 100 losses in back-to-back seasons, the Twins clearly needed to make some changes. As we put it when introducing our Offseason Handbook yesterday, complacency was not going to be an option this winter. They wasted little time shaking things up, parting with their entire coaching staff – save for pitching coach Rick Anderson and manager Ron Gardenhire – in the very first day after the season came to an end. Bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek, third base coach Steve Liddle and first base coach Jerry White were all told that their expiring contracts will not be renewed. Head trainer Rick McWane also is gone, which comes as no surprise given the iffy handling of injuries over the past couple years. Hitting coach Joe Vavra and bench coach Scott Ullger will be reassigned within the organization. For a team that has maintained remarkable field staff stability over the past decade, this is an enormous development. It's also warranted, because while I doubt that each departing coach was blatantly incompetent at his job, a change in clubhouse culture and a message that all this losing is not acceptable both were necessary. Some fans are already voicing frustration that Anderson and Gardenhire were left alone for the time being, given that the pitching staff was clearly the leading issue this year and ultimately the manager should assume responsibility for a team failure as miserable as we've seen. Yet, there have undeniably been challenging circumstances beyond the control of those two, and I think it's fair to say that they are on thin ice at this point. Gardenhire will almost certainly enter the next season as a "lame duck manager," with only one year left on his contract. The writing is on the wall that if things don't turn around, Gardy and his right-hand man are probably going to follow the rest of the coaching staff out the door. Personally, I'm OK with giving them both another chance, considering their strong track records prior to 2011. But it's refreshing to see the organization sending a strong message, and I'll be interested to see how the the vacant spots are filled (or the spots that open up in Rochester, assuming that Gene Glynn, Bobby Cuellar and Tom Brunansky are brought up as expected).

I think there's some truth to Gardy's observation. The Twins ranked 5th in the AL in OBP and 1st in stolen bases, yet ranked 10th in runs scored. That points to inefficiency in pushing runners across, any way you slice it. Unlike Lev, I see quite a bit of upside in next year's offense compared to this year's. Beyond hopefully overcoming that run-scoring efficiency, you look for: * Full healthy season from Justin Morneau, who only in the second half has started looking his old self. * Full year of Trevor Plouffe, who's a year further into his prime, and no Danny Valencia. * Another year of progression for Ben Revere. * Chris Parmelee continues to blossom in a more full-time role. * Maybe you find a way to get SOMETHING from the middle infield. None of those things are givens, but nor are any of them particularly unrealistic. And it's not like anyone was really playing way over his head. Willingham and Doumit, maybe, but they've been quality hitters throughout their careers. The Twins were a lot healthier than last year in the lineup but they weren't uncommonly healthy. Compared to their 7 players with 500+ PA, the Tigers had 6, the White Sox had 7, the Royals had 6 and the Indians had 6. I think you're letting that 2011 campaign, which was one of the most ridiculous injury years in franchise history, shade your perspective a little too much. Certainly everyone's health here as we reach the end of the season has to be viewed as a positive harbinger.

Why do they have Morneau pegged for $15M next year? From what I understand his salary is $14M and there's no option to buy out.

It's not really that simple. There's more to the game of baseball than hitting and driving in runs. Who would you rather have standing on base representing the go-ahead run? Who would you rather have trying to make a difficult defensive play with the game on the line?

Jon Heyman made this same argument the other day about Cabrera's Triple Crown quest not getting enough attention, and I don't really get it. From my view, it's been the most covered storyline in baseball over the past several weeks. Yes, there are some new-school SABR folks that aren't going to get very worked up about it, but you're not going to be able to convince those folks of the value of BA/RBI. They're also a relative minority. I think most of the baseball world is captivated by Cabrera's achievement and his Triple Crown will likely give him the edge in MVP voting, fairly or not.

Would make sense, given how quickly it happened.

According to a Japanese website, Tsuyoshi Nishioka has already agreed in principle to a contract with the Hanshin Tigers. The terms have not yet been disclosed. Nothing surprising about this news from where I stand. Despite his epic struggles over here, Nishioka was one of the biggest stars in the NPB and he's still in his prime. I also won't be surprised if we learn that the money in this deal approaches or exceeds the $3.25M he was owed by the Twins. Keep in mind that Brad Penny was signed for $4 million to play in Japan this year. Yes, Brad Penny. (He was released after one start.)

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2452[/ATTACH]In their second-to-last game of 2012, the Twins sent Anthony Swarzak to the hill. He turned in a sub par five-inning outing, and the Twins ended up losing by a run, their 95th loss of the season. A pitcher who had no business starting a major-league game getting roughed up and putting his capable offense in a hole they couldn't dig out of. Minnesota's 2012 season in a nutshell. Now, the above isn't intended as a slight toward Swarzak, whose overall campaign was hardly a disaster. When used in the long relief role, he was perfectly adequate, turning in a 4.05 ERA in 73 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and often effectively bridging the gap after short starts, which were depressingly frequent. Swarzak was one of many hurlers who were successful when used in the proper role, which is one of the bigger positive takeaways for the pitching staff this year. Guys like Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries put forth efforts that would have been exemplary for a spot starter, but both were somewhat stretched when forced into more than a dozen games. Brian Duensing was outstanding as a reliever and horrible as a starter. Liam Hendriks dominated the minors but looked overmatched in the majors while the Twins had little choice but to keep trotting him out. We'd probably view most of these pitchers differently if they hadn't been pressed so far beyond their expected roles. And of course, this was the result of what was without question the most notable development of the season: The five starters that the Twins expected to comprise their rotation at the beginning of the year (Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis) combined to make a total of 54 starts. There were many factors contributing to the entire preseason rotation being out of the picture by the end of July, and you could argue that many of them were foreseeable. Still, the Twins flipped tails five times with their five starters and when you have that kind of extraordinarily bad luck, you're bound to have a tough time competing, especially when you don't have much starting pitching depth to begin with. Many things went wrong for the Twins, but it basically all comes back to starting pitching. Rarely has the culprit for a completely derailed season been so blatantly clear. That's a shame, as it covers up the assorted successes surrounding the relief corps and the offense. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins backed up a breakout 2011 campaign with an even better season in which he handled everything thrown his way, taking over the closer role without a hitch after Matt Capps went down. Jared Burton and Casey Fien emerged as legitimate cogs, while Duensing remains one of the league's better lefty specialists. That's a solid, inexpensive core to build around. In the lineup, the Twins stayed shockingly healthy all year. In 2011, only two players on the entire team (Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia) were able to amass 500 plate appearances; this year seven players topped that mark. From the point that the Twins finally settled on Ben Revere as the right fielder after cycling through several uninspiring options early on, the starting nine remained impressively stable throughout the summer (with the characteristic exception of the middle infield spots). Not only were they healthier around the field, they were far more productive. The Twins went from having the second-worst OPS in the AL in 2011 (.666) to ranking ninth at .717 this year. They remained light on power, as they'll finish among the bottom three teams in slugging and homers, but they rank fifth in on-base percentage and are tied for first in stolen bases, which is more their traditional recipe for success anyway. On Wednesday night the Twins will wrap up this 2012 season, and they might finish with only three fewer losses than they had last year. That's fairly discouraging, but for those who followed the club, there's just no way to come away with the same sense of all-encompassing ineptitude and frustration. This team's failures started and ended with a rotation that was grossly unequipped for the plights that would befall it over the course of the summer. Does that make 95 losses easier to swallow? I guess, for me, it does. Mistakes were made and there's obviously work to be done, but I feel a whole lot better about this organization's outlook going forward than I did a year ago, even if the improvement in the W/L column was negligible.

Why do I care how the home runs were distributed across the course of the season? He still hit them all. He's always been a streaky hitter, that doesn't take anything away from the fact that he has gradually developed into a very strong power hitter over the course of several years. I'm not saying he's a lock to hit 20-plus bombs next year but there's plenty of reason to think he will. This was not a Mauer-esque fluke.

Interesting. Thanks for keeping us updated on this tight race, Curt.

No, it is not hyperbole. And I'm not talking about "superior middle infield talent" – my expectations are way lower than that. The Twins have had almost no stability in the middle infield for close to a decade, especially at shortstop. Their farm system is mostly bereft of even remotely decent middle infield talent. When they finally are able to find guys who can play (such as Hardy and Bartlett) they get rid of them. I challenge you to find another team that has struggled to this degree with finding and keeping palatable major-league options at both second base and shortstop over the past eight years.

Casilla has been a substantially better player than Nishioka, which is really saying something about Nishi. I think you're underestimating how horrible Nishioka was as major leaguer. Also, of 62 qualifying hitters in the International League, he ranked 56th this year in OPS. Was he the primary reason the team has been terrible over the past two seasons? Of course not. But he stands out as one of this organization's most monumental failures in recent history and his case is symbolic of the team's staggering inability to evaluate middle infield talent.

Sounds good. Plouffe over the last five seasons: 2008: 9 HR 2009: 10 HR 2010: 17 HR 2011: 23 HR 2012: 23 HR I believe that's what they call "development." Your supposition that he's more likely to be a 10-15 HR guy isn't really supported by the above numbers. I think there's definitely room to question his ability to hit for average and get on base, but his power is legit, and to me his defense at third base is perfectly adequate.

Thrylos is so smart. I wish he was running the Twins.

I've gotta think Valencia ranks squarely behind Tony Batista (and probably several others) at 3B.

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