Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2516[/ATTACH]Given the vast number of tribulations that have surrounded seemingly every injury affecting a player on the Twins' roster over the past couple years, folks have understandably placed low expectations on Kyle Gibson's rehab process. The young hurler is a member of the organization's sizable faction of Tommy John victims over the past several years, and with all the setbacks that we've grown accustomed to seeing, fans across Twins Territory have conditioned themselves to scale back excitement over his potential impact next season. Gibson is making it increasingly difficult to do so. The former first-round draft pick, ranked by Baseball America as the game's 34th-best prospect before a 2011 season that saw him tear his UCL, turned in another sterling performance in the Arizona Fall League on Tuesday, allowing just one run on six hits over five innings while striking out eight and walking none. In two starts for the Peoria Javelinas, the right-hander is now 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 16-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 10 innings. Those are fantastic numbers in a traditionally hitter-friendly league. Combining his AFL performance with his three-level minor-league rehab stint that stretched from July to September this season, Gibson has tallied 49 strikeouts and six walks in 38 1/3 innings since returning to pitching competitively about nine months after surgery. Perhaps even more encouraging than the numbers are the reports on Gibson's fastball velocity, which was purportedly registering up to 93 MPH in his latest start. If true, that's a notch above what he was typically reaching before surgery, and a sign that his gaudy strikeout totals may not be a total mirage. Now, to be clear, we're talking about a small sample against minor-league hitters, many of whom aren't even Triple-A caliber. Still, it's tough not to get excited about this major ray of positivity in what's largely been a dark and gloomy starting pitching saga. Even if we're telling ourselves not to.

Of course, since every team is receiving the same amount, it doesn't give them one ounce of comparative advantage. All that money is likely to do is inflate contracts across the league.

The Orioles would never make that move, but it's a moot point since players can't be traded until a year after they're drafted.

Liriano ranked third in the majors in K/9 rate this year (his best mark since '06) and had a 4.14 xFIP. There are some underlying numbers that suggest considerable upside and he's still under 30 years old. I think he's a guy that a lot of people here would be clamoring for as a buy-low candidate if they hadn't had to deal with his frustrating inconsistency from up close over the past couple seasons.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2508[/ATTACH]Since they moved into Target Field, the Twins have seen payroll rise and fall, from $96 million in the opening season, up to $112 million the following year, down to $94 million in 2012. The rise to $112 million last year was purportedly the result of a push to take the next step after falling short in the 2010 postseason. The subsequent scaling back by nearly $20 million was easy enough to figure; the Twins had lost 99 games which led to reduced revenue and also led to a lessened belief that contention in the next year would be possible. Revenues only dropped further here in 2012, as Target Field saw attendance fall by nearly 400,000. The Twins also lost 96 games. So the general belief is that next year's payroll will drop again, perhaps to $90 million or lower. Terry Ryan has backed up that notion by telling reporters that he doesn't plan to pursue high-profile free agents, which may either be a sign that he's uncomfortable giving big-money long-term deals to pitchers (justifiable) or that the club is simply unwilling to spend on the open market to address its issues (less justifiable). Can the Twins really afford to worry so much about what they can afford? A drop to $90 million or below might make sense based on the organization's typical structure, which calls for putting between 50-52 percent of revenue back into payroll, but it doesn't necessarily make sense for the long-term health of the franchise. If the Twins keep trimming the money they put into their roster, they risk further frustrating the fans and continuing this disturbing trend of attendance decline here in Year Four of their sparkling young ballpark. There's a snowball effect that comes into play here. If the team's performance keeps scuffling as the shiny newness of the stadium wears off, then attendance will keep dropping and so will revenue. Alas, adherence to the set payroll structure will result in an ongoing decline in spending, which will make it increasingly difficult to field a truly competitive team, particularly with $23 million every year owed to Joe Mauer, who is only getting older. It might require them to find money elsewhere and go above their normal percentage, but I believe the Twins should absolutely raise payroll above its current level rather than letting it drop for a second straight year. They don't necessarily need to get back into that $115 million range, but $100 million seems like a reasonable target. While additional spending hardly guarantees a winning team, it does demonstrate to fans a firm commitment to righting the ship, and the extra players brought aboard with that money are bound to generate excitement and sell some tickets. This is a pivotal offseason for the Twins, and one that could very well determine the course of the organization over the next several years. Will ownership play it safe at the risk of exacerbating a sense of apathy among the fan base, or will they green-light some bold moves to give their stagnating product a jolt? The latter option wouldn't be very Twins-like. But maybe that's a good thing.

According to this recap from Baseball America the FB was registering at 92-94, which is pretty much his pre-surgery velo if not a bit better. (That link also includes some video from his outing.)

I think he'll probably cost a little more than that, but I'd be in favor of bringing him back on a one-year deal. Still only 29 and there's quite a bit of upside there. Are people forgetting what a world-beater he was for three months before the Twins traded him?

Minor. League. Contracts.

It's possible to find useful players on minor-league contracts. The Twins had success finding relief arms through that avenue last offseason. The Orioles found a starter who as I type this is currently shutting down the Yankees in Game 3 of an ALDS series. It's all about making good evaluations and getting a little lucky. The article is called "Lottery Tickets" for a reason. No one is suggesting that you give any of these guys a major league deal or guaranteed rotation spot. There's little downside to bringing them to spring training - and maybe even sending them to Rochester to start the season - and seeing what they have.

Glad you guys are enjoying. It's been a lot of fun.

Ah, the myth of injury-prone...

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2486[/ATTACH]Five spots in next year's rotation. One guy locked in. It's hard to look at the daunting uncertainty in Minnesota's rotation as a good thing, but there are some fringe benefits to the situation. One is that it may be easier for Terry Ryan to lure in pitchers who are left without a seat and forced to sign minor-league contracts when the music stops on this offseason's free agent class. There could be quite a few of those guys standing around in January and February. While every pitcher would like a guaranteed big-league deal, there may not be enough to go around for this deep group, especially considering the risk involved with some of the bottom-of-the-barrel names below. These are just a few examples of pitchers that could miss out on big-league deals due to miserable 2012 campaigns. There's virtually no risk involved with a minor-league contract, and many of these pitchers would carry considerable reward. Roberto Hernandez - RHP 2012 Stats: 14.1 IP, 0-3, 7.53 ERA, 2/3 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP It's been a tough year for the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. In the aftermath of his false identity scandal, he spent the first half of the season in the Dominican Republic waiting on a U.S. visa, then served a three-week suspension upon his return to the States in July. When he finally rejoined the Indians, he pitched horribly for three starts and then missed all of September with an ankle injury. Ouch. Hernandez has plenty of baggage and has certainly been more bad than good in his big-league career, but he was effective as recently as 2010, when he put up a 3.77 ERA in 210 innings, and at 32 he's hardly ancient. His career ground ball rate of 58.5 percent is elite. Chien-Ming Wang - RHP 2012 Stats: 32.1 IP, 2-3, 6.68 ERA, 15/15 K/BB, 2.01 WHIP The Nationals signed Wang to a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason – a sizable sum considering that he'd pitched only 104 innings in the prior three years thanks to shoulder problems. The good news is that Wang's shoulder stayed intact this year. The bad news is… well, everything else. He suffered a hamstring injury in spring training, then after returning in May he missed time due a hip injury, and between those drawn-out ailments he struggled mightily in both the majors and minors. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2007, but it's worth noting that he won 19 games in back-to-back years for the Yankees and at 32 there's still a chance he could rediscover that heavy sinker. Jonathan Sanchez - LHP 2012 Stats: 64.2 IP, 1-9, 8.07 ERA, 45/53 K/BB, 2.09 WHIP After acquiring him from the Giants during the offseason for Melky Cabrera, the Royals watched Sanchez absolutely implode, posting a 7.76 ERA over 12 starts while yielding a .937 OPS and handing out more walks than strikeouts. They unloaded him on the Rockies midway through the summer and he was even worse during three starts for Colorado before being shut down for the year. It was one of the worst campaigns we've seen from a pitcher in some time, but Sanchez had been an effective starter in San Francisco for three years prior to his trade to Kansas City, overcoming his shaky control with a gaudy strikeout rate to post a 3.75 ERA from 2009 to 2011. He'll turn only 30 this offseason. Does any of that previous ability still reside within him? Bartolo Colon - RHP 2012 Stats: 152.1 IP, 10-9, 3.43 ERA, 91/23 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Colon is a different type of case from the guys above in that the anticipated lack of interest in him this winter has nothing to do with his performance over the past season. He was actually very good for the A's… up until he was suspended for 50 games in August after testing positive for Testosterone. Following his travesty of a Cy Young in 2005, Colon failed to reach even 100 innings in four consecutive years and was then out of the game in 2010. He came back last year with the Yankees at age 38 and was shockingly good, and this year with the A's he was even better. Of course, now we might know why. Tough to see the Twins giving him a chance, but who knows, maybe he can keep the magic working even without the juice.

Career season? He posted a 94 ERA+, second lowest in the past six years. I actually kind of like Guthrie. Durable, good control, hard thrower despite the low K-rates, and probably somewhat underrated by his numbers since he's spent most of his career pitching in the AL East (and most of this year pitching in Colorado). But no, I don't think he'll get 10M/yr. Not in this market.

Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]2472[/ATTACH]Each year in our Offseason Handbook, we put together a list of all the upcoming free agents at every position. Beyond the write-ups and statistical breakdowns for each player, we estimate the contract we expect them to get, so that armchair GMs can fit prospective acquisitions into their budgets. This is an aspect of the publication that we take very seriously. In fact, every year, we set aside a day for the entire editorial staff to get together and reach a consensus on each what each free agent might get. This process takes several hours and invariably leads to numerous fisticuffs, but the end result is a fair measure of accuracy. We feel that giving readers a reasonable idea of what each free agent will command is a cool feature of the product, and so we want to get as close as we can. Given the Twins' current needs, the starting pitcher free agent section is inevitably going to be one of the most important in this year's Handbook. So I thought today I would take a look back at last year's edition and review our contract estimates for starters compared to the actual contracts that those pitchers ultimately received. We certainly weren't always perfect, but in the instances where we missed, perhaps there's a lesson to be learned that can carry over to this year's crop. CC Sabathia Estimated Contract: 5 years, $130M Actual Contract: 5 years, $122M Notes: Sabathia's last contract ran through 2015, but it was widely expected that he would opt out and try to get more money out of the Yankees. He did just that, and we were pretty close on what the two sides ended up agreeing upon. CJ Wilson Estimated Contract: 5 years, $85M Actual Contract: 5 years, $77.5M Notes: We were pretty close on this one as well. The 31-year-old Wilson signed a five-year deal with the Angels for slightly less than we guessed. Edwin Jackson Estimated Contract: 3 years, $33M Actual Contract: 1 year, $11M Notes: We had the annual salary correct, but we didn't expect that Jackson would end up settling for a one-year deal. He probably could've gotten a multi-year contract but ended up signing with the Nats, hoping to pump up his value for the following offseason. I'd say that worked out well for him. He may get that $33 million contract this winter. Mark Buehrle Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30M Actual Contract: 4 years, $58M Notes: Apparently, we grossly underestimated Buehrle's market value. Despite the fact that he was about to turn 33 years old, the Marlins gave him a four-year deal. It's not clear that decision will ultimately work out well, but he was very Buehrle-like in the first year, posting a 3.74 ERA over 202 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma Estimated Contract: 3 years, $25M Actual Contract: 1 year, $1.5M Notes: We just sort of misread this situation. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Athletics won the bidding on the Japenese hurler with a $19 million posting fee but Iwakuma ultimately decided to return to Japan after the two sides couldn't agree on a contract. We figured it would take a substantial chunk of change to land him one offseason later, but as it turned out the Mariners landed him on the open market for a huge bargain and he made good with a 3.16 ERA. Still only 31 years old, he may land that three-year deal this time around, and the Twins – who reportedly finished runner-up to the A's in the posting system two years ago – could be a player for him. Roy Oswalt Estimated Contract: 2 years, $22M Actual Contract: 1 year, $5M Notes: There was a fair amount of interest in Oswalt last offseason, but rather than signing with a club, he semi-retired, only to sign with the Rangers in late May on a pro-rated $5 million deal. It didn't work out well, as he pitched poorly and ended up getting demoted to the bullpen. Aaron Harang Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15M Actual Contract: 2 years, $12M Notes: We were pretty close on this one, as well as the next three. Hiroki Kuroda Estimated Contract: 1 year, $11M Actual Contract: 1 year, $10M Bruce Chen Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10M Actual Contract: 2 years, $9M Paul Maholm Estimated Contract: 1 year, $4M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4.75M Notes: This deal worked out brilliantly for the Braves. Not only because Maholm pitched extremely well for a modest fee, but also because they included a team option for $6.5 million, so they'll be able to bring him back at a reasonable price next year. This is the kind of contract the Twins should be looking to ink. Joel Pineiro Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: Minor-league deal Notes: Even though he struggled in 2011, we figured that Pineiro would be able to land a guaranteed major-league deal given that he'd turned in a 3.66 ERA over 366 innings the prior two seasons. Injury issues robbed him of that chance and he ended up pitching 24 innings in the minors for the Orioles. Jason Marquis Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $3M Notes: Based on our estimate, the Twins got a bargain! Yay. Freddy Garcia Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M Brad Penny Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M in Japan Notes: Weird case. Penny followed the money to Japan but was apparently miserable, as he was granted his release from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks after one start. He returned to the States and made 22 appearances for the Giants but pitched horribly. Interested in seeing our estimates for this year's robust free agent starting pitching class? Pre-order your copy of the Offseason Handbook today and save 30 percent!