drjim

I would wager that Alabama would have smoked any team they played last night. Notre Dame played a representative schedule and won them all, it's not their fault no other team did the same.

I think this is the main factor. A good draft pick and representative years from Sano, Buxton and a few others and the Twins could be #1 next year.

If Inge could still serve as emergency catcher, the Twins could probably do worse than him as a bench player. Still a very solid defensive 3B (and can play other positions in a pinch) and provides a little RH pop which has value at Target Field.

That's a good point. The only thing I would respond with is I question how wise it would be aggressive in signing free agents when the team is a year or two (at least) away from being competitive. I don't like the Correia signing at all, would rather have seen McCarthy or perhaps Marcum, but don't have a huge problem with the Twins avoiding the 4 and 5 year deals even though they have the money. The rest of the pitchers being signed are all a huge meh to me. I wish the Twins were better in free agency, but I think to truly understand what type of pitchers they value it is best to look at who they acquire in trades and who they are trying to draft.

I would say a couple of things to this: 1. They have made a concerted effort to add high velocity (and hopefully high K guys) in the past couple of drafts. 2. This offseason is the first time in several years (maybe since '04) that they Twins have traded established players with significant value for prospects, so it was their first opportunity to add high ceiling guys through trades. 3. I still think the major league signings have to do with cheapness and an unwillingness to pay market value for Ks, while also trying to get bulk innings, not a misunderstanding of what makes a successful pitcher.

Thanks for the stats, I was going more from a hazy memory. I didn't mean to imply that Santana was anything short of great, but I was also remembering Silva's contribution. My point was that an entire staff was built, and that as great as Santana was it took the rest of the staff to obliterate the K/BB record. I don't think the Twins have forgotten how to do this, or that they don't want strikeout pitchers, it is just that they haven't developed those type of pitchers and won't pay free agent prices for them, which is why it has all falling apart the past couple of years.

If you honestly believe this I don't know what to tell you.

No doubt, but it wasn't like Santana had the greatest K/BB ratio ever (he didn't even have the best on the team). The point is they built a staff like that in the past, its not like they forgot that is what is a successful formula. They just haven't been able to develop talent, have made poor trades, and won't spend the type of money on free agents that is required for these type of pitchers.

I was making an assumption based on the previous cost of Cuban players and the fact that paying for older international free agents is the only uncapped method of acquiring talent (outside of major league free agency). I would guess the higher revenue teams won't hesitate to throw around huge money. The Twins could do so in theory, but it would be a high risk, probably moderate reward (at best) type of move, not the type that this franchise typically engages in. Maybe we can all hope they are cutting payroll this year to save money to make such a move...

If by "a few" you mean 20 to 30, it might be a possibility.

I am too lazy to look it up, but in the 05-07 range the Twins obliterated the record for K/BB ratio for a staff over an entire season (maybe multiple times). Even though a bigger part of the equation was limiting BBs over high K rates, I would say that shows some understanding of what is necessary for successful pitching.

I think Correia is best explained by a combination of cheapness and desire to fill innings more than a lack of understanding of what makes a good pitcher. The Twins, despite our hopes and what they may have hinted at, were never really on planning on dipping too far into the free agent pool for a pitcher nor guarantee more than a couple of years, so they went for the guy who can fill the most innings at the cheapest rate. I don't especially agree with this plan but I still don't think it shows a lack of understanding on what makes a pitcher valuable. I think a better example is seen in Meyer/May/Worley, the type of pitchers that they acquired when they traded away assets rather than spent assets.

I still think there is huge value in it that is being exploited by more progressive clubs in terms of in game strategy such as defensive shifts, matchups, etc. This is where I think the Twins have great room for improvement, though I'm not sure if there is even thought of using more advanced statistics in that matter, which is a shame. I also think that it is useful as an enhancement to scouting (which is how the Twins seem to most be utilizing it), but I would still say it is vastly overrated as a primary method of player evaluation - which is where much of the weeping and gnashing of teeth as it concerns the Twins front office is found.

Yes. I think the reason it is very overrated by us chatters is that it allows us to tell the story of a player when we have watched him only a handful of times at most as opposed to scouts who will watch many repetitions of the same thing. I find it pretty funny that just because the Twins front office doesn't speak in the same language that writers here do that all of a sudden the Twins don't know baseball or understand what they do. Statistical analysis basically breaks down everything to this: Pitching - maximize Ks, minimize BBs, shoot for more GBs and less FBs Hitting - don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone and put a good swing on those in the strike zone - then determine appropriate tradeoffs between contact rate and pop Defense - large amounts of range, the ability to catch the ball, and strong, accurate arms = good Baserunning - take extra bases when possible at an appropriate risk I am actually much more interested that the Twins are using pitch f/x and the like to enhance scouting operations than I would be in finding out they have multitudes of people crunching numbers to find new and creative ways to say the above.

As a side note I like that he cited the Cardinals as the example, they are model franchise in my mind.

I generally think using statistical analysis when evaluating players is very overrated, especially by fans on chat boards. I found it interesting that the example he used was pitch f/x which doesn't strike me as stats per say but more of a way to enhance scouting analysis. Statistics at their best work to confirm or build upon what is noted through traditional scouting. I would be quite surprised if any team in baseball used statistics as a leader for analyzing players. I don't really find the examples cited by people all that convincing in suggesting that the Twins are ignorant of stats when it comes to evaluating players, more that they are cheap, and only willing to spend a limited amount in free agency. This is of course a different issue. To me, the area where the Twins should be more scrutinized is general strategy and use of assets. The example I would use is the draft. The team had a unique chance, based upon the amount of picks they had, to outspend all other teams significantly last draft but they chose to pass and leave some money on the table. The team wasn't cheap in the draft, they outspent every other team, but did miss an opportunity to spend more to acquire talent (perhaps by selecting some additional overslot guys after round 10). Other teams, such as Toronto/Boston/Houston seemed to be more strategic in how they allocated funds. The reason I think people are frustrated with the Twins is because they tend to be more conservative and methodical as opposed to some other teams that appear more progressive and creative. Both styles can be successful (the Twins had a pretty damn good run for a decade), but obviously one is generally more appealing to chat boards like this. There are strengths in the Twins way but it is not nearly as sexy. After everything is stripped away it still comes down to evaluating talent. The Twins are conservative in statistical analysis but I think there is a lot of derp derp in the complaints. They use all information that they can, but probably trust their scouts above all else.

The Twins have signed a $1.4 mil and $500k guy in the current International period and have tapped most of their international budget. They aren't going cheap. It would be great for the Twins to sign one of these guys but I really wouldn't count on it. This is one of the few chances teams have to spend unlimited dollars on procuring amateur talent and other teams (with significantly higher revenue streams) will blow the Twins out of the water with their offer.

Cleveland is NOT giving up 4th place without a fight. I don't like this move, they really aren't that close, should be dumping almost all their resources into pitching, and the contract will be over by the time they are competitive.

It's a little unfair to compare 3 major league signings to 2 major league signings and a minor league deal. I would hope that Feldman and/or Villanueva are better than Harden. Overall, I would still hold off comparisons between the clubs until the offseason is over - I still think the Twins add another pitcher and probably a CF, and wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs add a position player or two.

Why would the Twins acquire Vargas? He is a free agent after this year, no reason to spend assets (other than money) for that. Much better use of Morneau is to hold on to him, hope he regains some value, and flip him at the deadline.

Fine for you to think so, but that would be contrary to every expert prospect analyst in baseball.

DeVries? I think two more people end up getting dropped. Twins will still sign a SP and a CF.

Correia and Villanueva are pretty equal pitchers depending on what you are looking for. Each of the past four years has seen Correia pitch 73, 20, 29 and 46 more innings than the best Villanueva season. I think that is more valuable than higher k/9 rates that are inflated by Villanueva pitching many more innings out of the bullpen. The AL East vs. NL Central argument is fair, but that can still be mitigated somewhat by starting vs. relieving. Not saying I like the Correia contract, but if it had been Villanueva instead I probably would have been equally meh.

False. Unless you think Buxton should be 1. Arcia at 7 is low but not outrageous depending on what you choose to emphasize.

I actually think Correia is a better pitcher - though Lannan will probably have a the better year being in the NL. Lannan has the much better contract.