drjim

A good example of why no one stat is perfect. And also that I am probably too high on Pelfrey right now.

So your implying those guys don't have value? Almost any team would take them in their rotation. And I also applaud you on your brilliant use of the four worst big inning guys and the one brilliant low inning guy from last year.

I think it is pretty unfair to count anyone drafted after 2007 (especially HS player) as of yet, and I wouldn't think too much of anyone drafted after the second round, as the hit rates on those picks are pretty low across the majors. A couple of those guys didn't sign (notably Bozied), and a couple of them were lost because of injury instead of performance (notably Thompson and Kelly). The two big busts are Moses and Sanchez. I never really knew the story on Moses - just never made it, Sanchez was the classic slugger who could never figure out a breaking ball.

You are right in all of this. I would never suggest IP is a catch-all stat or the only stat, just the most important stat for a starting pitcher. ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP. To bring it back to Ryan and the Twins, I think one reason they valued Correia is that they felt he had a good chance of going 200 innings, in that he had a higher probability to stay healthy and would be somewhat effective enough to grind out that many innings. I don't think they expect him to be dominant in those innings by any stretch. Given the state of the rotation, especially in light of the fiasco of last season, I can appreciate this thinking. I don't necessarily agree as I would have preferred the upside of McCarthy and/or Marcum, even if they were lesser bets to stay healthy. If you had weak pitching depth, would you rather have 190 ip of 4.35 era or 130 ip of 3.35 era? I would probably take the first option, even though in many ways he is probably a lesser pitcher.

You only listed 23 guys in the initial list. You added Burnett and Duensing, took off Roenicke. I would also add Butera. There is also about a 0% chance that Gibson starts in the bullpen.

Yes. Calling Butera a part of the scholarship program is a big misunderstanding. The Twins are quite aware he is a solid glove/no bat backup C. He will be lucky to get 100-120 ABs this year but is acceptable on the roster because Mauer and Doumit play almost every day and have defensive issues of their own. Better to have him on the roster than Hermann, who can stay in the minors and play everyday to continue developing. If Mauer or Doumit got hurt I would guess Hermann gets called up and takes most of the ABs while Butera would stay in his current role.

I was thinking more end of the year.

This is a good summary. I would never say IP is the only stat that matters, but it is a really quick way to determine health and effectiveness. It is always the first stat I look at for starting pitchers.

This is a terrible comparison.

Are runs and outs not the two most important stats in baseball? IP is the measure of how many outs you get. I will agree that ks, bbs, hrs tell you quite a bit about performance but they are much less useful in smaller samples. Any good starting pitcher will say that their goal in the start of the season is to hit x amount of innings and everything else takes care of itself.

I would argue IP is the single most important stat for a starting pitcher. By far.

I would look at it the other way. This article might help explain why Twins hitting prospects often seem to take a dip in the low minors and then start to emerge as they get to AA. Instead of letting them have success in the low minors on natural talent that will be exposed as they climb the ladder, the Twins force them to change mechanics that will lead to some initial struggles but will ultimately lead to longer term success at higher levels.

By consolidate I mean trying to find out exactly what you have in Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Hendriks, Benson, Diamond, Worley and seeing if they can be a part of the future. Start to break in the next wave of Gibson, Hicks, possibly Arcia/May/Meyer. Potentially trade Willingham, Morneau, maybe Perkins or Burton. By movement in 2014 I mean sorting out the above and starting to make a legitimate jump in the standings to the 80s in wins. Might have to sign an actual free agent or make a trade if some of the people listed above flop. Arica/May/Meyer/(maybe first round pick this year) should start to be a part of the squad and potentially Sano if he truly is a beast. Competition in 2015 is all of this coming together, especially the pitching. I concede this is a little optimistic but I still see it as a reasonable outcome. If everything falls apart this year and none of those players prove they can be big leaguers, it will be a much longer rebuild.

74 range.

This is something I do with my friends and thought it would be fun to bring to this board. Everyone picks 6 pitchers and you take the cumulative season stats for the 6, rank them for each category and see who ends up with the most points. Points are determined by the specific place in that category (ie if 10 people are in the contest, the winner of the category gets 10 points, second place 9 points, etc). Categories I use: IP (weighted 2x) ERA (weighted 2x) Wins WHIP Ks BBs HRs CGs Pick 6 pitchers total. There are no switching pitchers during the season, even for injury. You can pick a maximum of one pitcher from each of the following groups: Group 1: Verlander, FHernandez, Kershaw, Price Group 2: Dickey, Greinke, CLee, Sale, Hamels, JWeaver, Strasburg Group 3: Sabathia, GGonzalez, Darvish, Cueto, Shields, Cain, Gallardo These are tentative groups and stat categories. I am open to suggestions for changes. Comment if you have an idea for a change or if you need clarification on the rules. To play send me a message with your 6 pitchers or post on this thread by first pitch of opening night (March 31). I will post everyone's selections some time in the first week and provide some periodic updates of standings. For a prize I thought the winner could get a Prospect Handbook or a 2013 Offseason Handbook. If one of the mods wants to be generous and donate it that would be awesome or I could plunk down the cash. Winner can decide what they want.

I would not be that offended if Gibson started in the minors but I don't think it's a requirement. If he is as good as we hope he is he should be locked up before he hits free agency. I have no problem with the position that Saunders is better than Correia, but I don't think it is much of a difference. I didn't especially want either of them. For your last point that is fine, but you are basically asking Ryan to do the impossible. The Twins are still a business, they have to sell some hope to maintain a season ticket base and a renewal of corporate sponsors. If a savvy fan of the type that are found on this message board gets roped in by a few throwaway lines at a season ticket holder function that's their problem. They just had 63 and 66 win seasons, I can't imagine how people could have such high expectations for this offseason. I personally saw them doing the following this offseason: -trade for a pitcher. Worley fits that bill. -sign a free agent that will provide stable innings. They chose Correia. I definitely preferred McCarthy and/or Marcum, but generally see the rest of the guys who signed one or two year deals as more or less the same. I didn't want the contracts of anyone that signed for more than two years. -sign a guy coming off an injury. I thought it would be Baker but I see Pelfrey as an acceptable alternative. -sign a minor league contract or two. Harden, a few bullpen arms. -trade if value is there. They did fine on Span and great on Revere. -plug another guy or two on one year deals depending on the market. This hasn't exactly worked out, but as fans we don't have great information on this. I always saw this year as a consolidation year, 2014 as the movement year and 2015 as the year they compete in the Central. I didn't really care what Ryan said to sell tickets. I don't agree with all the moves (mostly Correia), but I'm more or less satisfied with the offseason.

I wasn't referring to your post, which was a fair (if ultimately meaningless) question.

I would think doping would help pitchers much more than hitters. I am a little skeptical that doping leads to much of an increase in overall talent but I do think it helps players recover quicker and stay healthier overall. That would be a huge boon to pitchers and would explain that spike in the 'roids era. Great writeup.

1. Talent 2. Gibson is already 25

I would say Sanchez is overrated and vastly overpaid and I'm glad the Twins aren't on the hook for that contract.

One final thought. I really find the butthurt over Terry Ryan "lying" pretty funny. I can only imagine how you respond to the rest of day to day society. There is an easy way to respond if you are that upset -don't spend any money on the team! That will actually get their attention.

I prefer Pelfrey and Correia is more or less the same guy (outside of handedness).

I personally prefer tbat they didn't get him. Assuming health through spring training tbe presence of Saunders would have almost certainly kept Gibson in the minors to start the season. Nothing bad about extra depth and buying some development time but no reason the overpay for mediocrity.

I'm mostly with you. The Twins missed out on a lefthanded Kevin Correia and people are upset. I personally would have been upset if they went two years and that is what it would have taken. If they signed Saunders in December people would have bitched. If they signed someone else people would have bitched. If they sign no one people bitch. It's the nature of a message board.

Either that or significantly less talent on the pitching staff.