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Everything posted by Thrylos
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2017 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 56-60
Thrylos commented on Thrylos's blog entry in Thrylos' Blog - select Tenth Inning Stretch posts
Thanks. Fixed. -
2016 Twins Minor League Free Agents
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
.229/.308/.429 in 2016 and .263/.358/.402 career against LHPs and played for both Cleveland and Texas the past 3 seasons. Might be interesting to see whether he would push the 2 young Cs for the back up job. -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Got it. Projections. Well... Sanity test: How many wins did Fangraphs projected the Twins to have in 2016 again? -
Pursuing Jose Bautista Seems Unconventional
Thrylos replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd use a slightly different world than "unconventional", but I guess it would suffice. Rosenthal is saying today that the Twins are looking at all available DH/1B types, as well...- 41 replies
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- jose bautista
- brian dozier
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2017 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 56-60
Thrylos commented on Thrylos's blog entry in Thrylos' Blog - select Tenth Inning Stretch posts
That's the reason he is at 58 I have 10 OF ahead of him and about half can play CF. On the other hand, Danny Santana -
auto-correct. Conclusion
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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The Dodgers finished only 4 games ahead of the Giants and in head to head games the Giants won 11-8. There is enough off-season left to call them the favorite yet. Also, The Nationals, in addition to the Cubs, had a better record than the Dodgers, and the Mets who had 4 fewer wins than the Dodgers will improve in 2017 with Cespedes for a full season, Harvey and Wright back full time, so the Dodgers got their work cut out for them as far as dominating the NL goes. At this point I'd probably ranked them 4th in the league, slightly ahead of the Giants and Cardinals (who you have to watch out for in a potentially weekened NL Central), but behind the other 3 teams mentioned -
Thanks. More like a 14 part. I will do a concussion and assessment of the system at the end.
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Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. Without further ado, here is the 2017 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2016 list in parenthesis: 60. Mike Cederoth (--) DOB: 11/25/1992; Age: 24 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015, 2016) ETA: 2018 Mike Cederoth was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft from San Diego State University. The San Diego native started in his first years at SDSU and he was their closer his last year, dropping his ERA to about half (2.29 vs 4.26) and saving 20 games. In 2012 Cederoth was hit on the face by a comebacker, suffered a fractured jaw and had to have it wired shut for seven weeks. He was one of several College closers that the Twins have drafted that season with the intent to convert to starters but failed. Cederoth was ranked as the Twins' 23rd best prospect in my 2015 off-season list, after an unfortunate season in Elizabethton, and disappeared from my rankings in 2016, after a more unfortunate season in Cedar Rapids, both as a starter. This season the Twins converted him back to a reliever and he repeated the A level Cedar Rapids assignment with promising results: He appeared in 30 games, pitched 47-2/3 innings, striking out 61 (11.5 K/9, 29.2% K%), walking 33 (6.23 BB/9, 13.4% K%-BB%) for a 1.43 WHIP (.288 BABIP, 88.3% LOB%), 2.45 ERA and 3.87 FIP. His strikeout rate against RHBs was phenomenal (he faced 86 RHBs total and struck out 37). A major difference from his previous seasons was that his first two seasons as a starter he had averaged 2 ground ball outs to all other outs where last season the ration was 0.84, which indicates a major difference in his approach. Even out of college Cederoth had two ready pitches: a plus plus fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches triple digits and a plus slider. He has been playing with a curveball and changeup in the minors that are workable, but not above average. His curveball has had flashes of above average. His problem has always been his delivery and mechanics and this has translated into more than optimal walks, which is his barrier to excellence and the one thing that he needs to overcome to become a major league pitcher, because his fastball and slider are major league ready. Full transition to the bullpen and a program geared towards improving his mechanics may do wonders for Cederoth, as the abandonment of his two lesser pitches. But he has a long way to go. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the A+ Fort Myers bullpen and depending on his success will move to AA Chattanooga. 59. Aaron Whitefield (--) DOB: 9/2/1996; Age: 20 Positions: IF/OF Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'4", Weight: 200 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent from Australia Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015, 2016) ETA: 2020 Aaron Whitefield was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Australia. 2016 was his second professional season (he played 7 games in the GCL in 2015) and it highlighted Whitefield's versatility and steady hitting. He played 51 games in the Rookie Gulf Coast League, starting 17 at CF, 8 at RF, 2 at LF, 5 at 3B and 18 at 1B. Outfield is probably his best position, but at 6'4" and growing, having the versatility to play first base might help his career. He is an excellent fielder thoughout. He also played shortstop in the Australian Baseball League. He hit .298/.370/.366 with 2 HR, 7 2B, in 217 PA. Struck out 47 times and walked 19, stole 31 bases and was caught 9 times. In addition to the 19 BBs, he had 48 singles, which means he attempted to steal 40 of the 67 times he reached first base, which is a very high rate. His bat is advanced for someone with only few years of playing baseball (Whitefield is a converted softball player) and improving. As most converted softball players, he is hitting RHP better that LHP. His slash line against RHP was .325/.366/.423 vs .250/.378/.265 against LHP. This off-season Whitefield is playing for his hometown Brisbane in the Australian League and hitting .342/.387/.541 (.349/.407/.566 against RHPs) with 4 HRs and 12/14 SB in 118 PA in 28 games. The competition in the ABL is much higher than that at the GCL, which is very encouraging. Whitefield is still very raw, but has good instincts both with the glove and the bat. The bat will continue to improve the more he gets adjusted to baseball from softball, and right now it is much ahead of his peers. He is one of the players who might make considerable jumps in prospect lists, since he has all the makings of a five-tool player if his power improves. Definitely a player to follow. Likely 2017 path: Based on his ABL progress, I am bullish on Whitefield. I think that he will start the season in Cedar Rapids and skip Elizabethton 58. Tanner English (--) DOB: 3/11/1993; Age: 23 Positions: CF Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 5'10", Weight: 160 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2014 Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AAA (2016) ETA: 2018 Tanner English was drafted by the Twins in the 11th round of the 2014 draft from the University of South Carolina. The Pittsburgh, PA, native is one of the purest centerfielders in the Twins' system with a plus glove. He played 7 games in AAA last season out of need, however he spent most of the season in A+ Florida State League Fort Myers with the Miracle, and about three months of it in the disabled list because of a concussion. English's career minor league numbers (.270/.372/.425, 13 HR, 31 2B, 14 3B, 54/62 SB in 756 PA in 177 games) added to a plus glove would make one think that he should be ranked maybe in the top 30 of the organization, but his problem has been staying on the field. He plays the game relentlessly, since his days with the South Carolina Gamecocks, and gets hurt. A lot. Those 177 professional games came in three seasons. In addition his hit tool was challenged this season This season in 33 games with the A+ Miracle, English hit .235/.348/.429 and struck out 47 times in 142 PAs (33.1%). He played in the Arizona Fall League for 22 games, where he hit .239/.333/.338 with 25 K in 81 PAs (30.9%). Those strikeout rates, in addition to problems with making contact demonstrated by the .230s batting average against better pitching this season question his potential as a major leaguer. His numbers (.417/.548/.750, 7 BB, 7K) in a super small sample of 31 PAs against LHP this season at Fort Myers, offer a glimmer of hope. However, returning from a concussion is not an easy accomplishment and English will have an uphill battle. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in AA Chattanooga 57. Williams Ramirez (--) DOB: 8/8/1992; Age: 24 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'1", Weight: 200 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Williams Ramirez was signed as a 20 year old from the Dominican Republic on December of 2012 and spend his first two professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League, coming stateside in the 2015 season. He is a late bloomer. In his first season stateside he pitched for the GCL Twins in 11 games (9 starts) for 47-1/3 innings, walking 19 and striking out 54 (29.2%). He had a miniscule 1.14 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.908 WHIP (.211 BABIP). Last season he jumped two levels to the A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he moved permanently to the pen and had a similarly good season: 29 games, 55 innings, walking 34 and striking out 66 (29.7%). 2.62 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.055 WHIP (.197 BABIP). His BABIP is bothersome as are his bases on balls. However the reason for walking is not mechanics, but inconsistency of his secondary pitches. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 96, a curve ball that flashes plus on occasion, but is out of control and a below average change up. He participated in the instructional league this off-season. Ramirez is lethal against RHBs, allowing them to hit only .111 and striking out 39 of the 87 he faced, which may indicate that if he attends to his control issues he could potentially be a valuable arm out a pen. Still at 24, he will be a bit older than most leagues he pitches. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in A+ Fort Myers and maybe move up to Chattanooga depending on results and need. 56. Colton Davis (--) DOB: 1/5/1994; Age: 23 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 25th round in 2016 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Colton Davis was drafted by the Twins in the 25th round of last July's draft as a Senior from Western Carolina University. The Commerce, GA native was assigned to Rookie Appalachian League Elizabethton Twins and he pitched in 13 games before moving to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids Kernels for 2 games in September because of need. Davis was an all conference Academic Criminology major and his career numbers (90 games, 9 starts, 146-1/3 IP, 169 H, 98 BB, 177 K, .291 OBA, 33 WP, 12 HBP, 5.84 ERA, 1.907 WHIP) from far suggest that the likelihood to get a pro contract was small, however looking closely there is potential: In his senior 2016 season Davis pitched in 31 games (1 start) for 67-1/3 innings he stuck out 89 batters of whom 34 looking and he had a 7 strikout relief appearance. The previous summer in the New England Collegiate League Davis appeared in 6 games (9-2/3 IP) he had 18 strikeouts (16.8 K/9) and 4 walks (3.7 BB/9) with a 0.93 ERA and 0.930 WHIP. Thus when his walks were controlled, there was a potential for good things. And good things happened to him this season. In 13 games for Elizabethton (19-1/4 IP) he struck out 23 (10.71 K/9, 30.7% K%) walked 8 (3.72 BB/9, 20.0 K-BB%) had a 3.26 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 0.98 WHIP (.262 BABIP) as the Twins' closer. Consistency and secondary pitches are the name of the game for Davis. He has a low 90s fastball with terrific movement that he can spot around the plate; however his secondary staff leave a lot to be desired. There is a lot of potential there, but also a lot of work to come close to realizing it. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen.
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Vogelsong and Tepesch: Where's the Excitement?
Thrylos replied to ScrapTheNickname's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think that Slegers and Baxendale will stay as relievers. Top of my head rotations with staff right now Twins: Santana Hughes Gibson Santiago May (Duffey in pen) Rochester: Berrios Mejia Wheeler Vogelson (*) Tepesch (*) Greenwood (*) Chattanooga: Rucinski (*) Gonsalves Jay Stewart Jorge Hurlbut Eades Fort Myers: Romero Rosario Centeno (*) Steele LeBlanc Clay Stashak (*) = new/re-signed MiLB FAs Not to mention any player(s) who will come in return for Dozier. As you see it is overflowing. Take those 4 (*) from AAA and AA, move the appropriate people up and everything flows much better.... -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd question that And not only because he already started 4 games in the majors. -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Sure. And rooting for all of them I suspect -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Of course he is a Mariners' blogger. Despite the fact that he is outsourcing his blog these days... Wonder whether someone asked if the Dodgers had Dozier, would they trade him to the Twins for DeLeon straight up too... Duh. -
Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Thrylos replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is one of the least insightful things I have read. It is like saying: If you were the White Sox and you already had Luis Basabe, Victor Diaz, Michael Kopech, and Yoan Moncada, would you swap them for Chris Sale? Fails to recognize the difference between rebuilding and competing. If you reverse any veteran for prospect trade like that, it would make zero sense. (I had to edit a few epithets here...) Gee! What do you expect from a Mariners' blogger... -
Vogelsong and Tepesch: Where's the Excitement?
Thrylos replied to ScrapTheNickname's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
They are the replacements for Andrew Albers and Pat Dean pretty much. Do I like the signings? No, because they keep players like Romero, Jorge, and Stewart in lower levels than they need to be... This is just the same old story of dumpster diving. Nothing new. Re: the "new" regime: Look again. Only the heads changed. There is the same farm director and the same player evaluators that have been around for a while. Sounds like Pohlad is going for a soft transition and 2017 will be an assessment year for the Front Office I suspect, so expect this season to be a quasi-Ryan season, unfortunately. -
Concur. So, how do you feel about the Twins bringing back all the "leaders" from the 2016 103 L team, which is exactly what they are doing?
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Catching Up With Infielder Trey Cabbage
Thrylos replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He has a ton of potential, but I think that what is missing from this conversation is some sort of negative reaction after a .204/.297/.337 at the plate and .883 fielding percentage at 3B season, from a 4th round pick. This quote to summarize his season is very concerning: "TC: I feel like I was pretty well prepared for what I faced. Nothing really caught me off guard." Apparently, he was either caught off guard and needs to work on some things or just does not have the ability to be better. The fact that there is no apparent realization that 2016 was a terrible season for him and he needs to work hard to fix things, kinda bothers me. Reality is not all rainbows and unicorns... -
Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
Thrylos replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
4 WAR is pretty artificially low. 45 hitters and 15 pitchers had 4.0 WAR or better in 2016. Bet you that only few of them will be HOF worthy. Raines' peak WAR (fWAR) : 1983 6.0 1984 6.7 1985 7.2 1986 6.0 1987 6.7 for comparison here is a HOF outfielder's contemporary to Raines' best 5 consecutive years: 1988 7.1 1989 4.7 1990 2.4 1991 3.8 1992 5.9 And Andre Dawson's best consecutive 5 seasons: 1979 3.7 1980 6.0 1981 6.7 1982 7.3 1983 6.5 So comparing apples to apples Raines' peak is better that both Andre Dawson's and Kirby Puckett's (whose numbers are above Dawson's) who are in the hall of fame. Bernie Williams has a single season about 6 WAR, Kenny Lofton 2. Apples with Apples.- 114 replies
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- barry bonds
- jeff bagwell
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http://media.giphy.com/media/4ASMPrVDNATm0/giphy.gif
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Always felt that Valencia and Plouffe were pretty much interchangeable. Apparently so do the A's
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It is not only $. It is the first overall pick in the second round
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Two Twins On The Outside Looking In
Thrylos commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Not a franchise worst by far. A Minnesota worst by little Mauer/Vargas/Park in a 3-way 1B/DH platoon with the young guy (Vargas) getting most of the reps, sounds pretty right. He has one more option btw. Santana who? -
Really for where the Twins are, it does not work this way. If a team is at .500, it could work, but not for the Twins. Ergo: In 2016 the Twins 16th in RS with 722, 3 fewer RS than the 14th place Dodgers. If they had Blue Jays' offense they would had scored 759 runs. The Indians' 777. I don't think that realistically can go much higher. Heck for argument's sake, let's say that they can improve to the best in the league (Red Sox) who had 878 Runs Scored. They were 29th (1 run better than the last in the League Diamondbacks) with 889 runs allowed. So unless you address pitching and defense, even if they have the best run production in the majors, it still translates to a losing record. And if you think that there is no way to win, makes zero sense not to nuke it up and start fresh...
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Are you sure that what one might get in return for a Bautista rental is worth more the $ plus the second round pick it will take for the Twins to waste on him? I am not. Thank you! This made me laugh.

