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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    I can't seem to find the article on BP from earlier this year, but one of their writers pointed out two things (if I recall correctly...) 1) Berrios's command, relative to past seasons, has been off all year - spring training, majors, minors; he has struggled to one degree or another at every level. 2) In his opinion, Berrios has slowed down his delivery relative to past years, and he thinks this is the problem. Berrios was able to generate such good stuff due, in part, to a fast delivery. But now the delivery doesn't quite match the arm speed, so his arm ends up lagging a little bit and he missed to the glove side. I was able to dig up the article. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29065
  2. markos
    Exactly. Though I also thought about the 1996-2007 Twins, a stretch where it seemed like Ryan won seemingly every trade. The 2006 team, arguably the pinnacle of that era, had the following players acquired via trade: Punto Bartlett Castillo Ford Casilla Santana (via Rule 5) Liriano Nathan Bonser Lohse Silva Adds up to 20-25 WAR that season. Compare that to this season: Nunez Escobar Murphy May Meyer Jepsen Milone Probably negative WAR at this point?
  3. markos
    An under-rated aspect of the Cubs rebuild has been their savvy trading: Miguel Montero Anthony Rizzo Dexter Fowler Jake Arrieta Pedro Strop Kyle Hendricks Addison Russell Travis Wood Carl Edwards Hector Rondon was a Rule 5 pickup. For the most part, they were able to hit on every one of their rebuilding trades.
  4. markos
    Interesting tidbit that came up this weekend on Twitter. Chris Mitchell created a KATOH projection system to rank minor leaguers purely by their minor league stats. This past offseason he had Kepler ranked #7 and Buxton ranked #43. He got a lot of grief for that ranking, but so far it looks pretty good. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/
  5. markos
    Using the methodology Fangraphs (and others) use for calculating surplus value, Dozier probably has ~$30M over the next two seasons with reasonably estimates of his production over the next two years (3.5 and 3 WAR). Using the research done by the folks at The Point of Pittsburgh, that is equivalent to the value of a pitching prospect in the #26-#50 range - basically Berrios pre-2015.
  6. markos
    Playing devil's advocate, the rebuttal to this would be: 1) Cespedes last year was better than Dozier has ever been: 123 wRC+ with plus defense, 4 WAR at the deadline. 2) Cespedes has always been seen as someone with some upside left. 3) Teams traditionally are willing to pay a lot more at the deadline than during the off-season. Some estimates suggest that they pay twice as much. 4) The version of Fulmer pitching for the Tiger's right now isn't the same as the guy traded last year. Last year he was a 22-year-old in AA who hadn't yet cracked a single top-100 prospect list. Even this offseason he only topped out at #47. In some ways he was similar to Gonsalves now in terms of prospect quality at the 2015 deadline. 5) Teams will be paying for future performance; not what Dozier has done in the past. So a lot will depend on how they expect him to age in his age 30 and 31 seasons. If teams think he is peaked, they won't pay as much for a declining player. 6) Cespedes provided some positional flexibility - he could play (sort of) all 3 outfield positions. So he was a legitimate option for any team with an outfield hole. Dozier can only play 2B, so the list of potential suitors may be smaller. As another datapoint, the Mets traded for Neil Walker this offseason. He is a 2B, a step below Dozier but still solidly average-to-above, with only 1 year of team control and $10M contract. So he definitely had less value than Dozier will this offseason. However, Walker was acquired for Jon Niese, a #4/5 starter making $9M with two team options. That is less encouraging.
  7. markos
    Unfortunately, I'm not sure it was too difficult. The Syracuse starter walked 5 in 2 2/3 innings.
  8. markos
    My bad. I forgot you mentioned the 4/60 price earlier. Yeah, I would probably be okay with Ramos at that price. But if I had to guess, Ramos will get closer to 5/82. Too many big money teams need catching help (Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, and Nationals all come to mind).
  9. markos
    As someone who has watched Ramos very closely for the past few seasons, my big question is durability. He has averaged only 88 games per season over the past 6 years. By comparison, Martin averaged over 120 games per season prior to signing his big deal. If Ramos is demanding comparable money, I would pass. And this is coming from a guy who advocated for signing Martin back in 2015. I think they are comparable players when healthy, but I also think that you are getting 30% more games with Martin. That is a big difference for me.
  10. markos
    I am excited to see Garver move up. He hasn't necessarily gotten the best defensive reviews, but I noticed this interesting tidbid the other day: Baseball Prospectus has done a ton of work trying to calculate pitch framing using PitchFX data in the big leagues. Beyond the pitch location data, their model adjusts for count, pitcher, batter, umpire, score, etc. One of their interesting findings is that their framing numbers using with PitchFX correlate very well (~.7) even when you remove the actual pitch location component and just look at balls and strikes called. This means is that they can estimate a player's framing ability just looking at the frequency of balls and strikes (adjusting for context). Where is PitchFX currently unavailable? The minor leagues. So they've use this alternate methodology to approximate the framing ability of catchers in the minors. Garver has been one of the top-10 catchers - well above-average - in AA so far this year. So even if he isn't a great catch-and-throw or blocking guy, he could still be valuable defensively.
  11. markos
    Exactly how much worse? I mean, Butera has a .879 OPS right now. So you're saying Turner is just an .800 OPS guy? I'd take that. Yeah, Turner has been a huge disappointment this year. I really thought by repeating AA he could show some decent progress. But if anything he is hitting worse than last year.
  12. markos
    http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=741651383&sid=milb http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=739979183&sid=milb http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=734521583&sid=milb This is probably a biased sample.
  13. markos
    It is possible that with more reps at AAA he would have been more comfortable and committed to his new mechanics, and therefore less likely to drift back to his old form when he struggled. Maybe?
  14. markos
    Sorry, I didn't realize it was behind the paywall: 1 90 Cameron Maybin 2009 2 87 Anthony Gose 2013 3 84 Lastings Milledge 2007
  15. markos
    Seriously, don't go look at PECOTA's top-3 'Comparable Players' for Buxton on Baseball Prospectus. It will make you sick.
  16. markos
    August Fagerstrom at Fangraphs wrote about the evolution of Buxton's swing today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changes-byron-buxton-has-and-hasnt-made/ Several shout-outs to Parker's previous work.
  17. markos
    Yeah, one would think the difference should be the same between the Twins and Angels. I can think of a few things that might make a difference on the margins (# of away interleague games, for example) but nothing that would explain a 30 run gap. Weird.
  18. markos
    I think you misunderstood my point. Yes, what Cashman did was very smart. But some of it was a product of circumstances outside his control. Chapman and Miller stayed healthy. Beltran is having his best season since 2011. If the Yankees had won 3 more games this year and are in the thick of the wildcard race, they probably don't trade as many players. If relievers weren't so highly valued this year then maybe they only get 2/3 of the prospects that the were able to get this year. It was a perfect storm that he definitely has taken advantage of.
  19. markos
    There is a lot of luck involved in this. The one year that the Yanks are actually in a position to sell just happens to be the year when everyone is willing to pay a crazy amount on relief pitching (thanks Royals) AND when the Yankees just happened to have two of the best relief pitchers. Now some of this is by design, and Cashman deserves credit for executing. But if this was an offseason when everyone was paying top-dollar for starting pitching, the Yanks wouldn't have much to offer.
  20. markos
    He seems Gonsalves-esque to me. I have certainly liked what I've seen from the Brewers under Stearns.
  21. markos
    Crazy. The gap between decent and great relief pitching is simply amazing in terms of prospect cost.
  22. markos
    Clearly Antony is trying to get everything out of the way so he can go to lunch.
  23. markos
    Yeah, but potentially the demand could be bigger as well. There are a bunch of teams that are more-or-less out of it this season (Pit, Sea, NYY, KC, LAA) that may consider themselves contenders (and subsequently buyers) in December. Hard to know how the dynamics will shake out.
  24. markos
    I feel like this argument is analogous to arguing that park factors don't matter because Mike Trout has a higher OPS than anyone on the Rockies. Just because there are good players scattered throughout the draft doesn't negate the fact that the vast majority of the value in the draft is skewed toward the top picks. Just looking at your comment here, 7 of the 20 best WAR players (35%) were top-10 picks, even though they make up only 3% of your draft pool. Draft position matters, and any draft analysis that doesn't take take it into account is not telling the full story.
  25. markos
    You're right. I had only looked at 2016 SS, which currently (and must be coincidentally) has a 0.6/0.6 total for AL/NL. I must be misinterpreting the text I bolded in my previous comment.
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