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SwainZag

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Everything posted by SwainZag

  1. SwainZag
    I wasn't saying he wasn't productive. It was more aimed at your comment that Walker will hit .320 in AA next season, which I'm sure everyone would be ecstatic about it, it just seems like quite the prediction.
  2. SwainZag
    Didn't he hit under .250 in A ball this year?
  3. SwainZag
    I think it's really a question if you would rather trade prospects for someone younger and cheaper or take the risk and give a 30+ year old a 6-7 year contract.
  4. SwainZag
    Guys that have made it the majors have a much higher success rate than guys in A ball, sure. But when you are looking at a list that puts much more emphasis and higher rankings on guys that have made it to the majors, the Twins are obviously going to be lower. Most of their highly touted prospects are between the ages of 18 and 23 and have been in the system for 4 years or less. I know it's fun to go look a player who is 23 and in the majors and bash the Twins front office, but honestly guys mature and develop and different speeds.
  5. SwainZag
    He is still only 23 years old and has less than 800 career PA. After his improved last couple months, I'm looking forward to see what he can with a full healthy season with regular AB's.
  6. SwainZag
    From the sounds of it, it's obvious the list you are looking at uses major league time as a huge advantage in it's rankings. Most of the Twins top young players aren't there yet, hence why they are lower on this list. I don't really see how it has any weight with how good the Twins system is if the guys have reached the majors or not.
  7. SwainZag
    Rasmus is also 28 while Hicks is 24. You are right, Rasmus had + dWAR is 2009, 2012 and 2013. This season Rasmus played 719.1 innings of defense to get to his -0.5. Hicks played in 528 defensive innings to get his -0.2, so not even close to double. Rasmus also made 14 times what Hicks did this year. Hicks also has less than 500 AB of major league experience. I know I am in the minority but I STILL think Hicks could be AT LEAST an average ML OFer. I still think letting him start 2013 as the starter at age 23 with no AAA experience was bad for his development. He has been treated like a yo-yo ever since then. MLB-AAA-MLB-AAA-MLB-DL-AA-AAA-MLB. That's in a 2 year span. I'm not saying anoint him as an everyday starter, but I'm very anti-kick him the curb.
  8. SwainZag
    Pelfrey is under contract and relatively has zero value in the trade market. Thus trading him is probably impossible at this point. There is no harm in bringing him into camp and attempt to use him as a reliever. If he looks good, cool, throw him in the pen and he could be a trade deadline piece. If he struggles or is simply beat out, then DFA/waive him. Makes no sense to cut bait now.
  9. SwainZag
    2014 Hicks : .215/.341/.274/.615 -0.2 dWAR Age 24, $508K, 2 pre-arb years left, 2 years arb left 2014 Revere : .306/.325/.361/.686 -1.8 dWAR Age 26, $1,95M salary, 1 year arb elig left. 2014 Rasmus: .225/.287/.448/.735 -0.5 dWAR Age 28, $7M salary, 2015 FA 2014 Ethier: .249/.322/.370/.691 -0.9 dWAR Age 32, $15.5M, $18M in 2015, $18M in 2016, $17.5M in 2017, $17.5M vesting option with $2.5M buyout in 2018. Hicks was much better after the break as well. Just some comparisons from players I have seen on this thread when it comes to OF.
  10. SwainZag
    I will agree with that as long as you say....proves success in the short term. It could turn into long term success or it could very well prove to be something that bit them in the ass in the long term.
  11. SwainZag
    There's no sour grapes at all. Predicting anything in the future isn't relevant I guess though. For I all know the Royals could go on to win the next 5 World Series titles or they could go on to pick Top 5 for the next 5. If their intention was to make the playoffs regardless of the result this year and in the future, they sure they succeeded in that nature. Royals fans are happy.
  12. SwainZag
    I really don't see the comparison though. This is about what Shields added to the team and what they lost in the trade, not when the Twins were swept in a playoff series. Sure you can compare the seasons in retrospect, but judging the overall franchises and what position they are in as a whole is completely different IMO.
  13. SwainZag
    But the Twins had more than a 1 year run! The Twins made the playoffs 6 times in 9 years! While the Royals could very well go on a run like this, it still stands that they traded a very highly touted prospect for a 2 year rental, who is all but gone after this year. Comparing the Twins run in the 2000's with KC's one playoff appearance is not a very good comparison.
  14. SwainZag
    Shields in 2014: 34 starts. 227IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.59 FIP, 7.1 K/9 Odorizzi in 2014: 31 starts. 168IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 9.3 K/9 Obviously Shelds is more of a workhorse, but how much of a downgrade are they really and consider that Odorizzi was a rookie and 24 years old. It seems people want to write off Myers already, a year removed from winning the ROY. He did have an injury plauged down year, but I certainly wouldn't write him off yet. The kid is only 23 years old. Mike Montgomery was also part of that trade, and at age 25, and a former Top 25 prospect, might have finally figured it out having a fine season in AAA. If the Royals lose in this 1-game playoff and lose Shields in the off-season, what mission was accomplished? They still will have a fine 29 year old set-up man in Davis and a short lived playoff experience.
  15. SwainZag
    I don't really see the landing place being the problem it's the money AND years offered that really counts. I think teams with huge payrolls...see....NY, LA, BOS, etc. are able to offer a guy in his 30's a 7 year 150M+ contract and worry a lot less about the future than a team like the Twins who is ponying up 20-25% of their payroll to an arm for the better part of the next decade.
  16. SwainZag
    I really hope this means we will get to see him catch more than once a week for the month. Of all the opinions how he can't catch are out there, he only caught 18 games for the Twins this season. No reason not to give him some reps, we all know he can hit.
  17. SwainZag
    I wouldn't look at promoting Bernier as investing in the future but more as....he has played well enough to earn a promotion, he is 34, the Twins are going nowhere and more of a nice thing to do for a guy who is probably getting near the end of his career. I'm going to guess he isn't going to see the field much this month, really no harm promoting him and letting him live the life for a few weeks. At least how I see it. It would be different if they promoted him and played him over a younger player with a real future with the team.
  18. SwainZag
    Which would be a better dilemma to have in 2-3 years......having too much money tied up in a 34-36 year old SP to block extensions to some of the up and comers, or tie up money in extensions and unable to sign an ace pitcher/top FA at the time?
  19. SwainZag
    This was my fault and I apologize to mike for it. Won't happen again.
  20. SwainZag
    I have nothing to compare to then. How do I compare a guy who only had 50 AB in one season? Most players who have less than 3 years in the majors are generally role players who have little statistics to compare anyways. If you want to say that most players who get a shot at the big leagues have less than a 3 year career then OK, but I think that's a different study. Your statement was: "but we forget that many/most rookies don't actually get better, they are who they will become" and I'm using major leaguers who have a career do generally show that they generally do in fact get better.
  21. SwainZag
    But that doesn't mean guys didn't improve. How about in year 3 or year 4? 2014 Minnesota Twins hitters who have played in 3 or more seasons: Susuki rookie year: .249/.327/.408 best year (8th) : .292/.354/.381 career: .257/.314/.376 Mauer rookie year: .294/.372/.411 best year (5th): .365/.444/.587 career: .319/.401/.462 Dozier rookie year: .234/.271/332 best year (3rd): .236/.342/.417 career: .239/.314/.396 Plouffe rookie year: .238/.305/.392 best year(2nd): .235/.301.455 career: .243/.304/.412 Willingham rookie yr: .277/.356/.496 best year(7th): .260/.366/.524 career: .253/.359/.467 Morales rookie year: .234/.293/.371 best year(4th): .306/.355/.569 career: .274/.326/.464 Kubel rookie year: .241/.279/.386 best year(4th): .300/.369/.539 career: .262/.330/.448 Bartlett rookie year: .241/.316/.335 best year(5th): .320/.389/.490 career: .270/.336/.366 Only Willingham, Plouffe and Susuki had rookie years which were even close to their overall career numbers, and most players had their best years between their 3rd and 5th seasons. Yes, another SSS I know.
  22. SwainZag
    It wouldn't even just be in Year 2 though, they could have a down sophomore season and break out in year 3 or 4. If I had time I would gladly do a study, but unfortunately I don't. I'm working on something though.
  23. SwainZag
    You could say this about any prospect though, not just look back at the ones who haven't progressed forward.
  24. SwainZag
    I say no, no, no to Shields. He turns 33 in the off season. He will hit 200 innings for the 8th straight year, that's a lot of strain on an arm. His K/9 are the lowest they have been in 6 years. His FIP is right around career norms at 3.80. Someone will overpay him ace money on a 4-5 year deal, probably with the last being an option and pay him well into 37-38 year old season. Hughes has been a much better pitcher than him this season and it's just my guess Shields gets 13-15M per season. These are the type of FA's that IMO the Twins need to stay away from
  25. SwainZag
    Regardless if he didn't hit many HR, in his last season for the Twins he was still average 1 HR per 20 AB, which comes out to 30 HR per full season. He was always often injured while in a Twins uniform, it's too bad they didn't try and stick with him. Either way, I'm hoping that Arcia and Vargas get to start for the rest of the season and see what kind of numbers they can put up with regular at bats.
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