Sssuperdave

Favorite All Time Twin: Kirby Puckett Favorite Current Twin: Samuel Deduno Favorite Pizza: Sausage and Mushroom

Wow, great article and great thread. I've got so many thoughts and could type for hours, but I'll try to keep this to a manageable length. Baseball is definitely my favorite sport. There was a stretch in the late 90s where Basketball and Football took the lead, but Baseball was my first sporting love, and is head and shoulders above the rest now. Here are a few reasons I love baseball: * Stats. I love numbers and statistics, and baseball has more of them than any other sport. Not only does it have more, but the stats tell such a story. I've got two young daughters right now and don't have cable, so I hardly ever get to see a game any more, but I truly enjoy reading the box score every morning. There's no other sport where you can get a good feel for what happened based on a box score alone. * Lack of Clock. I know this is a cliche, but it really is true in basebal that it ain't over till it's over. In a basketball game, if you are down 20 with 5 minutes left, it's over, but it baseball if you're down 6 going in to the 9th inning, you really can come back. It' doesn't happen much, but it happens just enough to keep me glued to the very last out. * Beauty. There's something about the colors, smells, and experience of a midsummer night at the ballpark that is just awesome. Even the metrodome was incredible for me. I'll never forget attending my first baseball game at the metrodome when I was 8. We got there really early and there weren't very many people there yet. The seats were sooooo blue and the field was sooooo green is was almost unreal. * Strategy. There is so much strategy in baseball, and so much can happen on any pitch. I love the war between the pticher and batter on every single at bat. What pitch will be thrown next? Where will it be? Will the fielders change position? Should the batter bunt? Hit and Run? Swing away? And I'm just scratching the surface. Now, why do I love the Twins? It all started in '87 when I was 7 years old. No one in my family was in to sports at all so I had never even heard of the Twins, but once they were in the playoffs with Detroit I heard friends and teachers at school talking about the Twins and was curious. My Grandpa was visiting when the world series started so I set down with him to watch the games, and I was hooked. While I was hooked by the postseason, like another poster a bunch of my most vivid Twins memories are from the regular season. Some of the best are when Randy Bush had 8 RBI, when the Twins turned 2 triple plays in a single game (and lost, then turned 7 double plays in the next game and lost), a walkoff home-run by Gary Gaetti, just about every one of Scott Erickson's starts in '91, and Kubel's grand slam off Rivera. The most crushing regular season defeat was Mike Trombley giving up a grand slam in the 12th inning (or something like that) to lose a three run lead to the Yankees. I was never very good at playing baseball. In fact, in my first year of little league I literally struck out in every single at bat. I was that bad. Seth hit .420 in high school, but I wasn't even good enough to make the team. "Easy Out!" was the most common refrain when I stepped up to the plate in little league. Yet, my best memories of playing sports are the few good baseball games I had. When I was 12 I was finally one of the better players in little league, and I'll never forget the game when I hit home runs in my first two at bats, both of them to right-center field. In my third at bat, as the catcher saw me approach the plate he stepped forward and yelled "back up outfield!". It was the only time that was ever said referring to me, and man did it feel good.

I'm not certain that the goalposts are moving, rather than expectations were unrealistic to begin with, and probably still are. I think we've all been salivating thinking about a team built around Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, and Meyer, but I don't expect those five to instantly produce the moment they hit the majors. Even if everything breaks right and all five of them become all-stars, I wouldn't expect it to be until their third year in the majors. So, if Buxton and Sano debut in 2015 we're really talking about 2017 before this team really hits it's stride, and even that is optimistic because I don't think you can plan on all five becoming all-stars. The one good thing about all this losing is that hopefully all those high draft choices can produce a pipeline of talent that lasts a while. I think the problem we all have is that we're impatient. Kohl Stewart has the potential to be a #1, but he probably won't even see the majors for thee or four years, and again will probably need two or three years after that before he's really producing at a top level.

This kind of logic results from looking at the team payroll for each individual year in a vacuum. Front-loading contracts doesn't make financial sense for the team because of the time value of money. Even if you have cash up front, it always makes sense to pay for something later and invest the cash now. For example, here's some mental accounting TR and the Pohlad's could do: Set aside an extra $8.475M this year in a "Perkins contract fund" (to bring this year's "salary" up to $12M) and count it as part of this year's payroll. Then in future years pay Perkins out of this "fund" and don't count it against that future year's payroll. It has the same effect as front-loading the contract but they earn investment income in the mean-time. I'm sure they don't do anything exactly like this, but I imagine they actually do things much more sophisticated in an attempt to maximize both the financial value and competitive "value" of the team over the long term.

So earlier I said "Meh" to this thread, but this is all pretty interesting so I'd like to expand upon my ambivalance. I'm not a very good athlete but I used to be a very good classical musician. I considered trying to be a professional but I doubt I was good enough to truly make a living out of it. I would probably have been the musical equivalent of a AA flameout. I did have a lot of success in auditions and solo performances though, and I attributed some of that success to a sort of cockiness that I would try to turn on as I walked on the stage or in front of the judge. I would tell myself things like "They are here to listen to me." and "I'm going to show them what this is supposed to sound like." Arrogant, cocky stuff - it helped me relax. But, that was all going on in my head. I never said it out loud, and I did my very best to think the opposite as soon as I walked off the stage. If I let myself believe all of that when I was in the practice room I would have gotten too complacent and quit working when I got tired. I think I had the right idea, but I never perfected the balancing act. Sometimes I beat myself up too much on stage and get nervous, and other times I got too complacent in the practice room. Taking this analogy over to baseball, my "meh" response is becuase we don't know how good each player is at this balancing act. I question whether it's even possible to be successful on the field without confidence bordering on arrogance, but I think some guys try to or choose to turn that off as they step out of the batters box.

Meh. All this talk about attitude is interesting and fun, but it is dwarfed 100-fold by results on the field. Thome was known as one of the nicest guys in the game, but the results of his hitting should have put fear into the cockiest pitcher around. I know clubhouse leadership is important, but it's pretty tough for those of us not in the clubhouse to really understand what guys are like inside it. Leadership is a nuanced skill, and every leader exhibits it a little differently.

I really do hope I'm wrong.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5 - Under Atlanta Braves - 87.5 - Under Baltimore Orioles - 80.5 - Under Boston Red Sox - 87.5 - Over Chicago Cubs - - 69.5 - Over Chicago White Sox - 75.5 - Under Cincinnati Reds - 84.5 - Under Cleveland Indians - 80.5 - Over Colorado Rockies - 76.5 - Under Detroit Tigers - 89.5 - Over Houston Astros - 62.5 - Under Kansas City Royals - 81.5 - Over Los Angeles Angels - 86.5 - Over Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 - Over Miami Marlins - 69.5 - Under Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5 - Over Minnesota Twins - 70.5 - Under New York Mets - 73.5 - Over New York Yankees - 86.5 - Over Oakland Athletics - 88.5 - Under Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5 - Over Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5 - Under San Diego Padres - 78.5 - Under San Francisco Giants - 86.5 - Under Seattle Mariners - 81.5 - Over St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5 - Over Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5 - Under Texas Rangers - 86.5 - Under Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5 - Under Washington Nationals - 88.5 - Over Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: Yankees and Indians Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Giants and Braves

I've read about half of the handbook and I love it so far. I particularly like Seth's players of the year articles and how the prospect profiles are organized (amatuer, stats, scouting report, forecast). Here are a few more things that I think would be great: More/Expanded prospect lists at the the back, like top 40 or 50 instead of 20 or 30, and maybe include another list or two from other contributors at Twins Daily Include these "rankings" in each propsect profile. For example: Kohl Stewart (4, 3, 4). I'm not super familiar with players outside the top 10, so I find myself constantly flipping back and forth from the writeups to the prospect lists. More info on each affiliate, espcially 2013 stats. I like what you've got on page six, with location, twitter, and manager, but I'd love it if it were expanded to 1/2 page to 1 page per affilliate with 2013 results, hitting/pitching stats, and maybe team MVP, pitcher of the year, etc. Oraganizational leader lists. I remember Seth doing this once towards the end of last year and it was really interesting. I'm thinking top ten lists for things like IP, K, ERA, H, BB, OPS, HR, etc. players across all Twins affiliates combined. Tool Ratings. I imagine this is asking too much, but I'd love to see someone's 20-80 scale rankings of each tool for each player. "Day in the life" articles. As other commenters have mentioned, I'd love more articles that focus on what life is like in the minors, and perhaps some player interviews. I know a lot of that kind of thing already gets posted on TwinsDaily, but the prospect handbook seems like a good place to include a couple. Thanks for a great handbook!

Interesting... I'm surprised the bolded part doesn't happen more often. It seems logical to me that there could be two teams that are both really interested in an out-of-options player but don't want to make room on the major league roster. So, they could just take turns claiming the player and trying to pass him through waivers, and the player could bounce back and forth between the teams until one of them finally gives up. I don't recall ever seeing that actually happen though. I suppose if a player is valuable enough for more than one team to want him this badly a trade would be worked out instead.

I've done some reading on baseball transactions, but have a couple questions on players that are out of options. Here's the scenario: Team A wants to move a player to the minors who is out of options, Team A puts the player on waivers, and he is claimed by team B. Team B then tries the player out on the big league squad for a while, and like Team A decides they want the player in the minors, so they have to put him on waivers. Now for the quesitons... How long must team B wait before putting the player back on waivers? Can team A claim the player back? What I'm getting at with question 2 is this... say you've got an out-of-options player with a lot of upside who for whatever reason isn't a fit on any major league roster (like Vance Worley if he has a really bad start to the year). Multiple teams that want this player in their system, but no one wants him on the 25 man roster. How does this get sorted out? Say the Twins are Team A and Worley is the player. Could the Twins get Worley back and put him in the minors if he were claimed and subsequently waived by another team?

Okay sabermetrically inclined - I'm ready to be enlightened by your wisdom... What are your top three favorite stats to look at when evaluating pitchers and why? Feel free to post different lists for starters and relievers. Go!

My evaluation of pitchers is definitely skewed by how horrible our pitching has been, but Pelfrey's good year look pretty good to me. In 08 he had a 3.72 ERA over 200.2 IP, and in 2010 he had a 3.66 ERA over 204 IP. I think I'd be very pleased if he duplicated those numbers for the Twins. I suppose folks will say his peripheral numbers suggest he's unlikely to duplicate that success. I'm not that good at using more advanced stats for pitchers yet.

I like this signing a lot. He probably doesn't improve the big league club as it stands now but if he's willing to accept starting in Rochester (and I assume he is since it's a minor league deal) he'll be a decent replacement if injuries happen. And who knows, he could return to 2012 form.

This wasn't directed at me, but here's a list off the top of my head: Plays I think are more exciting than bowling over the catcher: Suicide Squeeze Triple Plays Stealing Home Grand Slams Robbing Home Runs Diving catches in the outfield Gunning a runner down at the plate on a fly-out, even if the catcher doesn't get plowed into Walkoff Home Runs Every pitch of these other baseball situations (not exactly plays) are more exciting to me than bowling over the catcher: No-Hitters after the 7th inning Bottom of the ninth down by 1 with a runner in scoring position Game 7 of the world series Think of the 91 world series. Puckett's catch and home run in game 6, and every pitch of game 7 were more exciting that Harper getting plowed into. I don't even remember for sure who did the plowing - was it Lonnie Smith? Heck, I even liked the Kent Hrbek/Ron Gant controversy better. Oh, and Rick Aguilera pinch-hitting in game 3. I could go on, but I think it's obvious where I stand.

Kirby Puckett is my favorite baseball player of all time, and it’s not even close. Of course, I am as biased as can be on this. I first started loving baseball in 1987, when I was 7 years old, and Kirby had an electric energy and charisma that any kid would love. Then he gathered 234 hits in ’88 and won the batting title in ’89, and I was hopelessly hooked. Now that I’ve grown up and started learning more and more about advanced statistics, I’m really struggling with where he ranks among the greats all time. He had some power, but that wasn’t really his game. He stole a few bases, played great defense for a few years, and pounded out a ton of singles and doubles, but none of his stats really scream “all-time great”. His career OPS was .837, which is probably hall of fame worthy but isn’t eye-popping. Among position players all-time that places him between Jayson Werth and Hugh Duffy. According to baseball reference, his WAR was 50.8. Of course his career was cut short, so if you figure another 4 WAR per year for 5 years that would bring him up to 70, which would put him between Scott Rolen and Gary Carter. But, that all ignores Game 6 of the 1991 World Series. I still get chills whenever I think of that game; his dominance was incredible. It wasn't just his catch in the 3rd inning and his walk-off homerun in the 11th - he also hit a triple in the 1st, a sac fly in the 5th, and stole 2nd base in the 8th putting him in position to score the go-ahead run if Shane Mack got a hit. He had 3 of the Twins 4 RBI, scored 2 of the 4 runs, and had 8 total bases compared to 7 for the rest of the team. It was all-out dominance. But not only did he dominate – he knew that he would. Check out this quote from this Tim Kurkjian writeup several years ago… So, how does a game like that influence a player’s all-time greatness? It seems like the true greats in sports have games like that, rising to the occasion and dominating on the biggest possible stage. I can’t think of other specific examples off the top of my head, but I know Jordan and Kobe both did it a few times, and I’m sure there are examples for guys like Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, etc. Was this game evidence of just how awesome Puckett was, or did he just get lucky? How much does this performance move him up the all-time greatness ladder?

Kepler has hit safetly in 5 of the 6 AFL games he has played including 2 doubles and 3 RBI, for a .304/.346/.391 (.737) line. One good sign is that he has better numbers against lefties than righties. Check out this writeup on his 2-4 game Wednesday: Glendale's Max Kepler outshines arms, Twins teammates | twinsbaseball.com: News I imagine the Twins will have quite a dilema on his hands if he has a strong rest of the AFL deciding whether to add him to the 40 man to protect him from the rule V draft. Also, I apologize for not posting more towards the end of the season. I can tell posting slowed down as this thread is now at the bottom of the 2nd page of a google search for "Max Kepler". For most of the year it was the top result.

Wow... that draft is fascinating. I always knew prospects were hard to predict, but I didn't realize how hard it is to predict future performance of guys already on the 40 man. Seriously... Guzman, Mays, and Milton above Hunter, Radke, Cuddyer, Mientkiewicz, and Santana. Check out the writeup on Joe Mays... ... And after 2001 he amassed -2.8 WAR.

Unfortunately Kepler suffered another injury this past Sunday requiring stiches to his right index finger. It was a freak accident, that Jeff Johnson of the Cedar Rapids Gazette described this way: I haven't seen anything about how long Kepler will be out with this. In other Kepler news, his bat has cooled off a bit since my last post, with his slash line down to .241/.320/.424 (.744)

It's probably too early to worry about paying all those guys at the same time. If they all pan out that would be a huge success. However, the danger you're describing does kind of resemble what happened in 2011 when payroll was all the way up to $112M. There were 13 guys that made $3M or more (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, Pavano, Capps, Young, Kubel, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Thome, and Nishioka). If my memory serves me right 9 of those (all except Pavano, Capps, Thome, and Nishioka) were guys that had been with the Twins since before they were arbitration eligible. (not sure on Young or Nathan)

In my opinion, whether Gardy keeps his job or not should already be decided and shouldn't have much to do with whether the team wins 65 games or 75 games this year. The better question is who do you want coaching the upcoming wave of prospects? You've got Sano, Rosario, Buxton, and Meyer with debuts in the next year or two, and Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson with a taste of the bigs already. What head coach is going to help these 7 players reach their potential? Is it Gardy or someone else? I don't see how winning a few more games than expected this year changes the answer to this question. Full disclosure - this isn't really my idea, I'm pretty much ripping it off from Phil Mackey.

If this is an attempted salary dump, then it makes sense to me that you'd want him to be claimed, and that Ryan waited to put him on waivers until he got hot. Perhaps Ryan wanted to trade him in July but no team would accept his full contract - they would only trade if the Twins paid some. Now if a team places a claim on him, they have to be willing to eat his entire remaining salary. Yes, if he clears waivers you can trade with anyone, but you're in the same spot you were in July with no one willing to eat his entire salary. Obviously this is entirely hypothetical - I have no idea what the market for Morneau was/is like.

That run could easily have been a three run homer to Butler or Gordon.

Kepler has rebounded nicely from his 1 for 22 slump the 2nd week of July. From July 15-28 he hit .333/.455/.533 (.988) with 2 homeruns and more walks (10) than strikeouts (7). He also stole his first two bases of the year. The slump a few weeks ago is pulling down his overall numbers quite a bit to .273/.361/.468 (828). I'm moving into cherry-picking territory here, but if you expclude his 1-22 slump his full year slash line looks very nice at .316/.412/.547 (.959) with 18 walks compared to 19 strikeouts. His splits have improved slightly since clutterheart's post above, with 6 more at-bat's against lefthanders and only 1 more strikeout. His OPS vs lefties is a putrid .437, but that's actually a couple hundred points higher than it was 2 weeks ago. Of course, 29 at-bat's is a very small sample size. Max has seen a lot more action at first base lately, having played there 9 times since July 15th. The rest of his time in the field has been at left, where he had played a decent amount of CF earlier in the year.

When I first read this sentence I thought to myself "that's ridiculous, Arcia is totally going to be better than Delmon." Then, I looked at Young's minor league stats. Based upon things I had read in the past, I had always assumed Young was just rushed through the minors without regard to his actual production, but check this out... In 2005 Delmon had 370 plate appearances in AA as a 19 year old (19!) with this slash line: .336/.386/.582 (.968) and 20 homeruns. Yup, 20 homeruns. For comparison, Arcia had 299 plate appearances in AA as a 21 year old with similar stats but a few less homeruns: .328/.398/.557 (.955) and 10 homeruns. I'm still excited to watch Aricia and think he will be better than Delmon, but I guess this is example #956 that prospects, even those with great numbers in the high minors, don't always pan out.