cmb0252

I'm working on my personal top 50 draft board and plan to release it before Thursday. For those of you who plan to follow day 1/day 2 it is a fun exercise. The draft day threads last year on Twins Daily were great.

Crawford released his final, possibly, board of the draft year. A surprise player made it into the top 3. Here is the link: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-final-2014-board-probably/

Minor league baseball is a place to develop, not to put up stats. He is working on fastball command.

Personally, I would put whomever the Twins draft at #5 at #5 right behind Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Stewart. Honestly, outside of Aiken if we had a Stewart clone I would take him ahead of the field......I'm kind of a Stewart fanboy though.

Baseball Prospectus draft chat: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1164

Kiley McDaniel's new mock draft: http://sbb.scout.com/story/1407185

Draft questions from Law's draft chat today: Is that any validity to the rumor that the Astros would snag Nick Gordon #1? If so, how would the next 3 picks play out? Klaw (2:05 PM) No validity, sorry What's the word on the elbow surgery Kyle Freeland had a few years ago? Does he have a clean bill of health now? Klaw (2:09 PM) I know some teams flunked him this year, and some cleared him, so it's just a matter of each team's doctor's opinion. And I wouldn't take the fact that anyone flunked him as definitive - a couple of teams flunked Scherzer in the draft too. You have the Cubs taking Conforto (and considering other college players) with the fourth pick. Why don't you think they'd take Jackson or Gordon if either is available? Klaw (2:24 PM) I don't think they're on Gordon at that pick. I know they like Jackson but think they prefer other players - and there's a financial benefit to taking a player who'll sign for a little less money so you can allocate the savings to your next pick. I'd linked them to Jack Flaherty, a HS RHP from Giolito's/Austin Wilson's old HS, with that second pick. If you draft Alex Jackson do you immediately move him off of catcher to advance the bat as fast as possible? Or do you keep him there? Klaw (2:33 PM) I keep him there because back there he might be a superstar, and he's not bad in any respect At this point, what do you think the odds are that someone other than Aiken go 1/1? Klaw (2:05 PM) Maybe 40% Aiken, 30% Rodon, 30% Alex Jackson? Those are the only three names they're on, and I might be overweighting Jackson a little. He answered a ton more draft questions and one about Vargas in the chat. Here is the link: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50668/mlb-insider-keith-law

Mayo's he mock: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-brady-aiken-gets-nod-at-no-1-over-carlos-rodon?ymd=20140530&content_id=77457338&vkey=news_mlb Also, mlb.com updated/expands their board: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft

BA's new mock draft: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-separating-fact-from-fiction/

I don't have enough time to try and pick this apart. As I said above, we can just agree to disagree. The Twins are obviously interested in him but some of you are extremely high on him. We won't know who is right for awhile but I just don't understand the Wacha comparison.

There is no point to argue with you if that is how you see Nola's stuff. 4 plus pitches and one being plus-plus? I just can't agree with the optimism. That doesn't make me right or you wrong. It just means we don't see eye to idea.

Wimmers posted a 11.27 SO/9 vs Nola's 9.36. Nola bet him in WHIP/ERA but Wimmers isn't bad at 1.29/2.93. Oh, and Wimmers had 1 less CG but had 22 less starts. Yes, Nola did have a better college career, my bad, but not by much. When did college numbers become the indicator of big league success.

Upside? A true SS prospect with All star/top 5 SS. Maybe people are still stuck on the early season ranks but he is in almost all top 5s. His bat has definitely progressed this year.

Law was at the last Nola performance and he noted in his write up the white Sox, cubs, marlins, and Twins were well represented. He also came back with a different point of view this fof Nola than Aaron Fitt. Here is what Law said: "I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April. " Interesting two experts saw the same performance and have such different views of Nola.

Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.

Kiley McDaniel released his new board today. Kolek falls and Nola rises but what is his new top 5? Check it out: http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313

I believe he only hit 95/96 in the first inning and after that stat in the 91-94 range. He is 6'1 and throws from an awkward arm slot. While he repeats his delivery well it is something to note. Also, he misses bats because of his control not over powering stuff. That's not what you normally picture top 5 picks to be. Maybe he turns out to be a #2 but I personally see a #3. Here is a questions for you Seth. You have followed the Twins minor league system as much as anyone and have you ever seen the Twins start a player in AA? I ask because after Law saw Nola's last start he suggested a team could draft him, put him in AA, and have him start in April for the big league club in spring.

People hated how the Twins always drafted control pitchers in the past but now want Freeland or Nola? I don't get it. Are people just looking at the current big league rotation and want a quick fix? This isn't the NBA or NFL.

Jon heyman on what the Astros might do at #1 and it might surprise you: http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24575310/astros-may-draft-rodon-or-aiken-no-1-overall-or-pull-surprise-with-gord

Theoretically it would be great to have that information on every single high school and college prospect but that is impossible. This isn't the big leagues where we record every little stat, have ever play on video, and have a base line to judge performance. It is hard enough to find basic counting stats for HS kids much less wRC+. Here is ESPN's MLB Draft Scouting Scale: 80 - Hall of Fame Caliber Among the best ever. Should be getting out very, very sparingly. Miguel Cabrera's hitting; Giancarlo Stanton's power. 70 Perennial All-Star Well above-average ability in a particular area. Matt Harvey's fastball; Mike Trout's speed. 60 - All-Star Caliber Solidly above average. 55 - One Grade Above Average Overall production will consistently meet or exceed the league average for his position, or have a particular skill that is one tick above the league average. 50 - Solid-Average Player at the Major League Level For an overall grade, this represents a position player who will play every day in the majors, a starting pitcher in the third or fourth slots in a major league rotation, or an average middle reliever or setup man. For an individual attribute, this represents a league-average skill (a .270 batting average, a 90 mph fastball). 45 - Below-Average-Player Either a starter on a second-division club, or a bench player on an average or better club. Would include fourth outfielders, fifth/sixth starters, 11th/12th men on a pitching staff, etc. 40 - Future Potential Player An outside chance to get a "cup of coffee." Well below-average ability. 35 - Non-Prospects Will top out at, or likely before reaching, Double-A. 30 - Not a Pro Player A skill level just one tick above the worst possible grade. 20 - Lowest Player Grade Frank Thomas' running speed; Juan Pierre's power; Steve Blass' control. Here is how Kevin Goldstein defines hit tool: "Quite simply: the ability to routinely put the ball into play by making solid contact with the barrel of the bat on the middle of the ball. As you can note from the scouting report above, this is different from hitting for power, which is graded out as a different tool. This is more the ability to hit for a high batting average." He goes into more depth here on what factors scouts actually include in the hit tool: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4860 Scouting grades are far from perfect but they don't have to be. They are just one aspect of scouting. Obviously they have value or why would every professional scout use them? For fun, here is an A's scout's scouting report on Joe Mauer: http://m.thewhistle.com/news/baseball/oaklands-scouting-report-joe-mauer-2003/830/

New mock by Crawford is up and has the Twins taking Gordon. Here is a link: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-2014-volume-vi/ While ESPN's Jim Bowden isn't know for his draft opinions that didn't stop him from doing his own top 10 mock draft. He has the Twins taking Freeland. Take it for what it is but here is what he had to say about the pick: "The Twins have two of the best position prospects in baseball in center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano. Though they have a unique opportunity to draft this year's best shortstop in Nick Gordon, which would be an excellent selection, the Twins are never going to be legitimate contenders if they don't build the rotation. With Freeland sitting here at No. 5, they have to take the starter. He has the best slider in the entire draft and his fastball sits 90-93. And though he doesn't play against the toughest competition at Evansville, he has an incredible 128 strikeouts and just 13 walks in 99 ⅔ innings this year." Link to article: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9471

When describing a player's hit tool you are using predetermined numbers that are linked to certain grades. Hit is linked to batting average. Power and plate discipline are separate tools with their own predetermined grade numbers. A 50 hit tool is a ~.270 BA. A 5 HR power tool would be about about 35 grade (for the SS position) which Gordon definitely doesn't project to have. He is super athletic, 6'1 175-180 lbs with room to fill out, and has plus bat speed. To me that suggests 50-55 (SS) power which should result in HR totals in the teens.

A 50 grade hit tool is .270-.275 depending on the source.

Thanks for the article. A lot of great info. I have been a giant Stewart fan since I saw him pitch last year. Definitely my favorite Twins prospect.

Touissants stuff is hard not to like. I could live the Twins taking him at #5. I actually like Holmes a little more and prefer him to Nola/Newcomb.