Oxtung

Good find on that data Curt.

There are several points that I would like to make: 1) Casilla has NO trade value right now. Teams at this point are looking for that player(s) that are going to send them to the top of their division. Mentioned trade partners so far: Twins: Casilla .236, .308, .577 Nats: Espinosa .232, .374, .683.....only 25yr old and hit 21 home runs last year. Tigers: Santiago .230, .316, .620 Orioles: Andino .231, .318, .611 Giants: Theriot .275, .322, .632 Who here actually thinks any team looks at that line and thinks "I need to add that to my team! We're going to the playoffs!". If you want to argue teams in the offseason might trade for Casilla if he plays the second half and demonstrates an improvement I wouldn't disagree but right now he has no trade value. 2) Casilla vs. Florimon vs. Dozier vs. Carroll re:2013 To me Casilla is the odd man out here. Florimon and Dozier are potential pieces of the future and the only way to truly know is to give them a shot. Casilla has repeatedly shown that he is not the long term solution not because he doesn't have flashes of mediocrity but because he can't stay on the field and has shown a propensity to crater offensively. Carroll hit .290, .347, .706 last year which is just slightly above his career numbers. To me it is worth keeping him around to see if he can return to his career norms. Maybe his age has caught up to him and he is just downhill but maybe he is just having a poor year at the plate. Carroll is also owed $3.75M next year where as Alexi is owed $0. That is probably the biggest reason to keep Carroll. 3) "Carroll is a career backup." Carroll has played in more games than Alexi Casilla in every season except 1. So if Carroll is a "career backup" what does that make Alexi?

I think it's funny that you demand someone to show documentation of exactly who owns the Twins and what "Minnesota Twins LLC" is but then throw out this claim off the cuff. Me thinks there is a double standard here somewhere.

Signing an ace like Greinke works fine if you have a constant stream of good pitching prospects that you can ride until they hit arbitration and then replace them with new prospects. Greinke is going to get a $125M/5yr kind of deal. That's $25M per year!!! The whole Twins starting payroll this year was supposed to be ~$30M and that is the highest it has ever been (I think ). That only leaves $5-10M to sign your other 4 starters. So short term Greinke works if you go with Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers, etc... because they are cheap. That philosophy stops working though once you get to arbitration and your starters start earning in the millions. Even if you are willing to pay the $25M/yr to Greinke and just live off pre-arb years there is still a problem. The Twins don't have the young pitchers to even make it worthwhile. You want those first years of a Greinke contract to be years you think you can go all the way. Here is what a Twins starting staff would look like though: Greinke Diamond ??? ??? ??? Options: Hendriks Walters Gibson (will he be ready to go?) Cheap Veteran (hello 37yo Pavano!! or hello Marquis part 2!!) Deduno De Vries Who thinks we could go all the way on that? BTW, things aren't looking any better for the 2014 rotation. Or even possibly the 2015. As you can see if you sign Greinke you don't have the money to improve the rest of the rotation enough to make it worthwhile. Here is what I think is a better option: Sign a $70M/5year deal (I like Shaun Marcum personally), a $33M/3yr deal (somebody between Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez), and a cheap veteran (Pavano?) or Blackburn if he turns things around. This would be your rotation: Player (Age,ERA, WHIP, K/9) Marcum (30, 3.39, 1.166, 8.4) Jackson (28, 3.73, 1.135, 6.8) Diamond Pavano/Blackburn Hendriks/Gibson Then in 2014 you can replace Pavano with 2 out of Hendriks, Gibson, Wimmers. This method keeps your payroll ~$30M/yr, runs out a decent rotation and allows you to have flexibility in the mid-term with only ~15M/yr locked up long term.

Right field is smaller, albeit only slightly, at TF. So there is some reason to think his range is worth more in left field. The statistics about where most balls are hit to is interesting and could override the small difference in dimensions but none the less there is still a difference and that means an argument can be made that Revere's range plays better in left. Another difference in right is the high wall. That could keep more balls in play and therefore require more throws back into the infield from distance. I suspect the number of balls hit off the wall is quite low however it is another small piece of information that can be used in this discussion about his arm vs. range.

Intriguing topic. I created a spreadsheet based on MLB.com's Top Prospect list. I looked at 2011 & 2012 prospects that have either made it to AAA or MLB (the only 2 years available). While the sample size is small it does give a more objective look at time spent at AAA. In the spreadsheet I did not include September call ups as MLB start dates unless the player started the following season on the MLB 25 man roster. Also keep in mind these are just the cream of the crop prospects (as defined by mlb.com). How other players progress through the minors may or may not follow this same pattern. Hitters PA @ AAA: [TABLE=width: 500] On MLB rosters 10 0 PA 2 (Rosario, Simmons) <100 4 (above + Trout, Harper) <200 4 (above) <500 8 (above + 4 others) >500 71 [/TABLE] Pitchers IP @ AAA: [TABLE=width: 500] On MLB rosters 9 0 IP 12 (Pomeranz) <35 3 (above + Parker, Friedrich) <70 5 (above + Moore, Bauer) <140 9 (above + 4 others) >140 31 [/TABLE] [1] Includes players not called up to MLB rosters yet. [2] Was called up straight from AA to start the season having never pitched in AAA. Started for a couple of months before being sent down to AAA. For hitters it seems either your team thinks you're ready for MLB straight out of AA (Trout, Harper, etc...) or you spend at least a year at AAA level. If you have a deficiency in a particular skill or you are blocked by players already at the MLB level you might spend up to 2 full seasons at AAA (Montero, Alonso, etc...). For Pitchers they seem to be called up as needs arise at the MLB level. Only 2 pitchers were counted on to start right out of spring training and one (Drew Pomeranz), who went straight from AA to MLB to start the season, was sent down to AAA after a few months because he wasn't performing. On the other end of the spectrum Teheran and Montgomery have both already pitched a season and a half at AAA without being called up.

The Twins are going to end up paying the majority of his salary no matter what happens. There aren't many teams that are willing to pick up a $14m contract. Even less that would be willing to pick it up when that player is hitting like Morneau is right now. So the options seem to be try to trade him for some low end prospect AND pick up a large chunk of that salary or hold on to him and see what happens the rest of the season and first half of next year.

Atlanta, St. Louis, Arizona, Yankees, Detroit, Seattle, KC, Colorado and Toronto disagree with you. They all have or had at least one top twenty player playing in AAA this year.

True, if you define "a single just below average season" as "2 years of almost exactly average baseball".

For those of you who are excited about this idea; where does the money come from next year?

You're overlooking a very large piece of the puzzle. The batter and pitcher DID resolve the play. The pitcher threw the ball and the batter made the decision to not swing. That pitch should be called accurately exactly because the play WAS resolved by the batter and pitcher. This is the exact same problem that occurs at the end of many professional basketball games (with the same argument of "let the players decide the outcome"). The players DID decide the outcome with their actions. If it is a ball or strike with the first pitch then it's a ball or strike with the last. To me the real question here is ... how much emphasis should be given to the pitch f/x by the umpires? Should they try to adjust their calls now that there is a feedback mechanism? Can you adjust your ball/strike calls in those situations just by knowing your biased? That would be an interesting experiment!