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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    You're looking at this all wrong. Atheists are part of a minority group in this country and as such they have "support groups" just the same as homosexuals, African Americans, factory workers, truck drivers, etc... It might interest you to know that atheists are the least trusted large minority group. American citizens are more comfortable with a gay person, Muslim, African American, or woman becoming president than an atheist. As such there is discrimination that occurs. To be clear I'm not saying Atheists have faced anything on the level of slavery, the intolerable working conditions of the poor in the 19th and 20th centuries, the racial profiling of Arab Americans, ect... but there is discrimination just the same. If you look back at history in this country the most effective way to combat discrimination is through massing large numbers of people to create a national dialogue. So between support groups and tools to drive political / ideological change organized atheism make sense. Here are a couple of polls showing how little atheists are thought of: http://www.gallup.com/poll/155285/Atheists-Muslims-Bias-Presidential-Candidates.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/24385/Democrats-View-Religious-Groups-Less-Positively-Than-Republicans.aspx
  2. Oxtung
    Oh the irony....
  3. Oxtung
    Just saw this...don't think it's been posted yet. PJ Walters has been shut back down today due to shoulder inflammation after a bullpen session. He had an MRI that showed no structural damage. It doesn't sound season ending. Here's a quote from Walters, http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_21097012/minnesota-twins-pitcher-ryan-walters-shut-down?source=rss
  4. Oxtung
    I was measuring by ERA or ERA+ .... there were no advanced metrics available to sort by. If you want to go by WHIP he was the 14th worst out of 86. I went with 5 years because that is when he came back from TJ surgery. I think much of the confusion is in my parameters so let me clarify that. Starting pitchers who have pitched 600+ innings in the last 5 years. Certainly there have been worse pitchers who have not lasted the whole 5 years but that doesn't really matter much. Those pitchers were rightfully let go. So when you look at pitchers who have pitched a significant portion of those years Liriano has been one of the worst. So I'll reiterate. Yes, at times he has great stuff but he can't seem to put the whole package together and be a good pitcher. Here is my search: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?type=p#ajax_result_table::21
  5. Oxtung
    Yes trade him quick before the clock strikes twelve. Not sure why you left 2009 out of those numbers unless you're trying to make him look better than he really has been since coming back from TJ surgery. So here are those numbers again with the season you left out: 4.73 ERA 8.6 k/9 4.0 bb/9 1.413 WHIP He has also failed to qualify in pitching two of the last 3 years, this year he is on the boarder, so he hasn't exactly been an innings eater either.
  6. Oxtung
    Sounds to me like some Span-Revere hit and runs are in order!
  7. Oxtung
    While Liriano might have the "best arm" in the system he has been one of the 10 worst starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. Interestingly enough so are Blackburn and Pavano. The only Twins starter who has been decent over that time frame is Baker.
  8. Oxtung
    Morneau, Willingham, Plouffe lose their power Span's ability to play solid defense in OF Almost any MI losing their ability to play defense (certainly any the Twins have had since...Knoblach?) That's 7/8 fielders and every pitcher who's ability to play is almost exclusively tied to 1 attribute. The players who are able to lose their defining attribute and still be productive are exceptionally rare. So yes if Revere loses his speed & quickness he will add little to the Twins but that's true for just about every player.
  9. Oxtung
    Isn't that the truth!! Thanks for walking me through your thoughts
  10. Oxtung
    Fixed that ... now he only has 101%
  11. Oxtung
    As % of personal AB's: Morneau DH: 37% 1B: 63% Mauer DH:31% 1B:18% C: 50% Doumit DH: 42% 1B: 0% C: 49% RF: 10% ***EDIT: Fixed Doumit's %****
  12. Oxtung
    To put some numbers to those AB's from 2012: DH AB: Doumit: 90 AB Mauer: 88 AB Morneau: 77 AB 1B AB: Morneau: 175 AB Parmelee: 87 Mauer: 50 Catcher AB: Mauer 145 Doumit: 116 Butera: 62
  13. Oxtung
    So you think the emotional and economic (selling tickets to see his fairwell tour) advantages of Torii in RF is greater than the future building of playing Parmelee there? Often times we as fans only look at the baseball side of things to the detriment of the business side (I am definitely guilty of that at times) and I can see there being a need to draw fans for reasons other than the competitiveness on the field. So that is a real question, I'm not trying to be a smart ***. If Parm/Morneau split 1B/DH reps where do Mauer/Doumit get their AB's (see stats in next 2 posts)? ***EDIT to add quip about next 2 posts***
  14. Oxtung
    Haha....In another thread there was a puddle on the floor from the drooling over an OF with Hicks, Revere and Benson. Imagine what Willingham, Revere, Parmelee looks like!!!
  15. Oxtung
    That is exactly the driving force behind the idea. They just looked at it from a statistics angle.
  16. Oxtung
    I agree that Parmelee's future is at 1B. I just don't see the downside of playing him in RF for the first half of the season (assuming a Span/Revere/Willingham trade). Unless Benson comes out swinging and gets back to AAA I don't think he's ready in May (and if he does then it's time to rethink things), do you? Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Rosario, etc... aren't ready for another year minimum (that's not to say someone won't get forced into action but the Twins shouldn't be counting on one of them next spring). I guess I'd rather see Parmelee in the lineup than any of the AAAA players we have stocked. So unless you're worried about playing in RF hurting Chris' play at 1B, I guess I don't understand what the problem is.
  17. Oxtung
    Justin is most likely going to be here still next year as well though. At a minimum he will likely man first base for the first half of 2013 trying to drive his trade value or if he is back to Justin of old because we're looking to resign him. So where do you put Parmelee for the first half of next season? Do you let him ride out ANOTHER half season at AAA? Does he come up and just sit on the bench?
  18. Oxtung
    I unnecessarily muddied my post by including that comment about the recent Twins history. I understand that throwing in general and pitching specifically is an unnatural movement that leads to stresses that arms were just not built for thus leading to a large number of injuries. My real point/question is do "strike throwers" with "pretty good mechanics" actually get hurt less often than "non-strike throwers" or than those with "bad mechanics"? Intuitively the mechanics makes sense. If your throwing motion puts more stress on your arm than is typical then logic says your more likely to injury yourself. However, intuition and "logic" are often times incorrect. For example there has been some recent statistical work done that shows that companies should actually base their promotions not on merit or hiring managers intuition but rather on pure chance. It has been shown that if you randomly promote workers your company will be better off with more appropriate and solid workers at every level. Now that is a pretty counter-intuitive idea. So, getting back to baseball, I'm wondering if there is any work actually corroborating the "better mechanics/strike thrower" with "less injuries" or if this is just a gut feeling. If this is just a gut feeling/intuition how pervasive is this idea? Do more teams than just the Twins believe this?
  19. Oxtung
    Those seem to be contradictory statements. The first seems to contradict the statement made by TR about swinging at strikes. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your first post. If so I apologize.
  20. Oxtung
    I found something Terry Ryan said interesting that I had not heard before and I was wondering if this was common knowledge and I am unaware or if any actual analysis had been done on this issue: "...usually when you get strike-throwers, that means they’ve got pretty good mechanics and pretty good deliveries. That usually means they stay healthy." Recently that doesn't seem to be the case. How many of our "strike throwers" have had TJ surgery or just gone on the DL in general? Seems like a bunch. Have we just been unlucky or are other teams even more inflicted?
  21. Oxtung
    Yeah, don't bother to actually read the article or anything just go with your gut feeling! Here's a direct quote, "You know, we do not take many strikes. If there’s a strike there, we encourage our hitters to go get it. Get good pitches to hit, and go ahead and take a whack at it." Now you can believe that isn't true which is of course your prerogative but at least read the article before responding...sheesh.
  22. Oxtung
    Because nobody wants to see Liriano from April for the next 3 years which at this point could be a very real possibility. You can always trade him and then offer him 3/$24 after the season.
  23. Oxtung
    Of those talented outfielders only Benson realistically could be ready and he'd have to show that his first half was behind him. Hicks only has 1/2 year at AA at this point and while he is playing well in NB he certainly isn't killing it so counting on him to start in RF next year is asking too much of a 22 year old kid. Arcia, Rosario, Sano, etc... are even farther out and may not even be in the outfield by the time they hit the majors. At this point it certainly seems that the Twins will need a veteran to fill in the first half of the year at a minimum. Of course this could all change if Benson comes out swinging in the second half and gets quality at bats in at AAA still this year.
  24. Oxtung
    No, snepp and Curt's data are showing 2 different things. Snepp's data only shows putouts and assists (and errors but those are almost nonexistent in a sample that large) i.e. only where the outs where made. His data shows that more outs come each season from RF than LF. To me this implies that there are more flyballs to RF than LF. Curt's data on the other hand is ALL times an outfielder touches a ball. This includes balls where an out isn't recorded like base hits. To me this shows one possibly two things. First there are probably more ground balls hit to left field than to right and probably more catch-able flyballs to right than to left. But there is a second possibility. This could also show that there are more line drives hit to left field that aren't outs. Perhaps the balls are hit harder and are getting into the gaps more often in LF than RF.
  25. Oxtung
    1) At this point statistically it isn't. As a matter of fact the 38yo is outplaying the 28yo. 2) Carroll's career averages and his recent past both say this year is well below his norms offensively. Like I said just last year he hit .290/.347/.706 which was only slightly above his career average. So unless you're claiming his age has finally caught up with him, which is a possibility, yes he has a good chance to bounce back and have a good year next year. 3) This is just flat out wrong. In 2006 he started 102 games at 2B, 212 games with the Dodgers in '10-'11 and 76 games with the Twins so far. Whether or not he plays his best ball at this point in his career doesn't really matter. What matters is will he play better than Casilla and/or are his intangibles worth more to the club? 4) You're absolutely right. The 28 year old that has been below average in his career 1600 PA and hasn't been able to play even 100 games in a season has a chance to be pretty good but the 25yo with the supposedly great defense that has never been given a opportunity has no chance and shouldn't be given a shot. [/sarc]
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