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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Sano struck out in 25% of his PA's but had a .397 babip to keep his batting average stellar. I would not be shocked to see his strikeouts rise a bit and his babip fall to a more reasonable level causing his overall numbers to drop quite a bit. On the other hand his power will still be there and subsequently he'll draw plenty of walks. I'll guess a .290/.370/.510 line for an OPS of .880 for the remainder of his season in AA.
  2. Oxtung
    Perhaps instead of offering snark you should read and better understand the points being made by posters. Here are few of my other points from this thread: It would be great if you would argue your point without trying to divine fellow posters motivations.
  3. Oxtung
    In addition I don't think anybody made that claim in this thread either. What has been said, I think, is that his current .405 babip is unsustainable over a full season. When his babip falls it will probably settle somewhere between his career average rate and his highest season rate. In order for it to settle into that range some combination of his June, July, August, September rates will have to be significantly less than his current rate. When that happens, because of his high strike out rate, his batting average is likely to fall below his career norms as well.
  4. Oxtung
    Like I said I was just nit picking your statement about intelligence with no qualifiers about it being baseball intelligence.
  5. Oxtung
    [TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]Looking Swinging This year 17% 83% Career Avg. 22% 78% Lowest Looking (2009) 16% 84% [/TABLE] You can find it from baseball-reference.com under the more stats tab. Scroll down to the Pitch Summary -- Batting section. It is near the far right of the table.
  6. Oxtung
    Just to nitpick, because that's what I do, I think there are at least a few people on this board that are probably smarter than most of the front office. That doesn't mean we would run the organization better though.
  7. Oxtung
    If Joe were to end the year tied with his career high babip of .373 he would have to have a babip of .357 going forward. If he were to match his career average of .348 he would have to have a .320 babip for the rest of the season. Right now his batting average is .080 lower than his babip, which is a career worst for him. In 2011 Mauer had a babip of .319 with a batting average of .287. That difference is .032. I think it is entirely possible, given how much Mauer is striking out and his high babip combined with his career high difference in babip and BA (which I think is mostly driven by the strike outs) that he will have a month or two of .270ish batting average. Of course that is predicated on Mauer's strike outs being more than just a function of randomization.
  8. Oxtung
    I don't know if Joe's strike outs are a statistical anomaly or a sign of bad things to come but if they continue he will come back to Earth and quickly. Right now his stats are being held up by a .405 babip. That is clearly unsustainable. When that drops so will his BA, OBP and Slg. To put this in some context here are some stats from his two best seasons and this year: 2009 .373 babip leading to a .365 batting average 2003 .364 babip leading to a .347 batting average In the following seasons his babip dropped and subsequently so did his batting average. 2013 .405 babip with a .323 batting average. So even with an absurdly high babip his batting average is just average for Joe. Clearly his strike outs are hurting his hitting. Now think about where that batting average will be when that babip normalizes towards his career .348 mark. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe has a .270 batting average for several months.
  9. Oxtung
    Unfortunately that didn't work. It's not a come and go kind of thing. Two weeks ago I had no problems and then boom, scores will not load. It doesn't matter how I get to them, I've tried several different ways. It's frustrating to say the least. If you have any other ideas I'd love to hear!
  10. Oxtung
    I'm kind of disappointed they didn't go with a HS SS. That position is such a huge need. Personally I found Oscar Mercado interesting. It amazes me how they love the "toolsy" OF but don't seem to care about it when they evaluate middle infielders.
  11. Oxtung
    Is anybody else having a hard time getting the MiLB sites to display properly? About 2 weeks ago many of their drop down menus and pages stopped displaying properly. I can't get any of the game scores to actually display at all. When I click on the above link I just get a blank section where the actual scores should be. Anyone else having/had this problem?
  12. Oxtung
    I would be excited if they grabbed a SS like Oscar Mercado. Everything I've heard about him is his defense is outstanding and there is no question about him sticking there. With Stewart drafted SS might be our biggest hole.
  13. Oxtung
    You must have really felt emphatic on that point! Either that or your job requires everything in triplicate.
  14. Oxtung
    I was wondering how they were chosen. That explains it nicely and would make a lot of sense!
  15. Oxtung
    I've wanted high upside pitching for months now with this pick and I am glad they got it. Good luck Kohl!!
  16. Oxtung
    I'm not sure what good that data does. So much has changed that anything older than the 90's and the information revolution, is suspect IMO. Even Garrioch's study that I just linked to is questionable though it goes back to '87 I believe.
  17. Oxtung
    Matt Garrioch did a study of drafts from '87(I think) to '01 on every player drafted. He found that, in the first round at least, HS RHP were slightly more likely to be solid everyday players than college RHP. However, HS LHP failed at a very high rate, something like only 20% made it to the majors. Here is the link to the google docs spreadsheet. You can look at the success rates of all the positions broken down by HS/College, RH/LH, Round drated and differentiated into never made it to majors, part time player, solid regular, part time allstar, regular allstar, superstar, alltime great. He used WAR as his stat of choice. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US
  18. Oxtung
    1) Frazier 2) Gray 3) Bryant 4) Appel 43) Oscar Mercado I think the Astros are going to go way underslot just like last year. They are pretty void of OF prospects right now too. I think they'll take either Frazier or Meadows.
  19. Oxtung
    Yeah I think one or two of the starters will become relievers at some point. I just didn't know who it would be at this point because they're all so far away.
  20. Oxtung
    Two of these three players made the All-Star team. Player 1: .248/.382/.447 .829OPS 5HR 26RBI 35R 9SB/4CS Player 2: .301/.373/.443 .815OPS 3HR 31RBI 31R 2SB/1CS Player 3: .320/.396/.383 .779OPS 1HR 15RBI 18R 4SB/3CS Player 2 and 3 made the All Star team. Can anyone tell me why? FYI Player 1 was JD Williams.
  21. Oxtung
    I often see people listing out future lineups or starting rotations and drooling over the possibilities. Well today I was updating my Twins future rosters and when I got to the relievers I started to have a very hard time figuring out where to put people because we have many really good looking prospects. Relief pitcher isn't as sexy as starting pitching but I think we should give some love to the relief pitchers! So here is a potential 2016 relief corp: Perkins May/Meyer- assuming 1 doesn't stick at starter Zach Jones- hitting triple digits on radar gun; has pitched 23IP 8H 30K's this year Michael Tonkin- 11k's/9 this year at AA before heading to Roch. Corey Williams- K's are down this year but still pitching well J.T. Chargois- hurt but considered fast to the majors reliever when drafted in 2012 AJ Achter- Twins Daily relief pitcher of the year in 2012 Others that I considered but couldn't find a spot for: Tyler Jones (right handers are OPS'ing .310 off of him this year!) Ryan Pressly Caleb Thielbar Pedro Hernandez (Lefties are OPS'ing .429 off him) Cole Johnson (had a .82 ERA at Fort Meyers before being promoted) Brett Lee (I think he ends up in the bullpen. Righties are hitting him) Any starter moving to relief So there are my picks. I think there are perhaps 5 legitimate pitchers in this group with closer potential. That's a lot of talent. Now show me yours!
  22. Oxtung
    Perhaps that helps explains why elite pitchers seem to only becoming out of the first round with a few fringe guys in the second over the last 10 years or so. While I'm sure there are more factors involved this certainly seems like it could be a contributing factor. The more data you collect the more accurate your decisions become.
  23. Oxtung
    Glenn Perkins. Do you think we could Kickstarter a few million dollars to coax him into retirement and the booth? It would be awesome to hear his "cybermetric" takes. I can just imagine how flabbergasted Bremer would be the first time Perk whipped out xFIP.
  24. Oxtung
    The scholarship is the only factor that matters really. It is what gives him the leverage to say I could go play football if you don't pay me what I'm looking for. Now I don't think he will actually go play for A&M if we draft him at 4. If everything went perfect he could only move up at most 3 picks. That's a lot of risk when you're already guaranteed $4ish million. However, it is the fact that he has a scholarship that let's him hold out for extra money. Not anything that is happening at A&M. I know that I was agreeing with much of what you said but I felt my previous post was not particularly clear so I just retyped the whole thing.
  25. Oxtung
    This QB signing does nothing to hurt his leverage. His scholarship is still there. The coaches would still like him if he decided to commit. Ultimately the leverage has always come down to Stewart's desire to attend Texas A&M. They could have 5 of the best QB's waiting in the wings and if Stewart had a scholarship offer and truly wanted to go he could simply say no thanks to the Twins. Or Manziel could have left and Stewart was going to be the de facto starter coming into the season and if Stewart could have instead wanted to sign with the Twins. So ultimately it doesn't matter what is happening at A&M it only matters what Stewart wants to do.
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