Oxtung

Mmmm...that Phillies deal is a little on the light side. Do they have a centerfielder? Could we get him too?

It does. He will be available this offseason barring an extension.

It's hard to imagine the Tigers having enough in their minor leagues to acquire Price. The acquisitions of Lester, Samardzija show just how costly that is. Price is better than either of those and comes with an extra year of control allowing a chance at an extension or a qualifying offer. What do the Tigers have to bargain with? Ray and .....?

Perhaps an overpay but does it matter if the twins spend an extra couple million? Do we think they're going to make a big splash this offseason that 3 million would push over the top?

When was the last time a pitchers K rate increased when coming to the twins? I think it far more likely that 4K/9 is here to stay then a return to 6K/9. That said good trade for all involved.

My thoughts exactly.

Awesome! He certainly seems to deserve it.

Uh oh...what does that mean for you? Are we going to lose an All Star poster to another teams boards? Or will you change your moniker or will you refuse to accept the loss of Willingham and type through the pain and tears?

I agree that there is something to be said about not making glaring mistakes and that is true at the minor league level I think. Is it at the major league level? I'd argue there have been several. While he did bring in very fine looking pieces in May and Meyer, I think the thought process behind the trades was pretty straight forward. Bad major league team, weak minor leagues with clear pitching needs, so trade off major league assets to minimize your future weaknesses. I think almost every GM in a similar situation does the same thing. So the question to me is, did he get significantly more than an alternative GM would have? I'm not sure exactly where I stand but am currently leaning towards no.

How do you know if you don't give them an extended chance? Even if you think they don't have what it takes how about Ryan Pressly? He's shown to be able to handle it. Or how about Edgar Ibarra, Aaron Thompson, Deolis Guerra or Lester Oliveros? Or if you don't like our prospects how about signing an actual reliever from the FA pool, since it seems that Guerrier was guaranteed a spot anyways. Joba Chamberlain would certainly have been an interesting bounce back candidate that could have either been traded at the deadline or signed to an extension. LaTroy Hawkins is another with trade possibilities. My point is there were a lot of different options that could have helped this team out but none of them were chosen. Instead the team committed to a 35 year old low upside middle reliever that they eventually released.

Agreed. Or being aggressive in free agency looking for assets with high upside that you can then flip at the deadline for future long term pieces like the Cubs. Or committing to a terrible team but also stockpiling the future talent long term like the Astros by trading away everyone of value. Or, like the Cubs started in 2013, use the money saved on the major league squad to blow past your international spending limits in an effort to buy the most talent possible. Or use the extra cash at the major league level to rework your big contracts so that in 2016+ you have extra cash to sign FA's? When it comes to the minor leagues I have a hard time pointing to something that Ryan has done that I would stop and say, "That's a really creative strategy I think is going to pay off, way to go TR." At the major league level I think we can all agree it's been a cluster ____.

I'd guess a bullpen piece. Duensing perhaps?

I'd argue that signing Guerrier was a bad idea no matter how it turned out. At 35 years old he wasn't going to be a part of the future and even if he regained his peak years he wasn't going to bring back much of significance since he's a middle reliever. And, unlike Kubel, there were prospects that could have, and I argue should have, been taking that spot on the 25 man roster.

The problem isn't if they're hurt in the majors. It's if you send him down to AAA at some point, which if the Twins feel he isn't ready seems like a likely scenario, and he then gets hurt. Let's say he tears his knee up a la Mauer or Kubel. Well now he's used an option in 2014 and a second in 2015 while he's rehabbing and he now has 1 option year remaining and he's thrown all of what, 40 innings at the major league level?

Meyer is on pace to pitch 150 innings this season despite being limited to an average of 82 pitches per game. It's time to put the "he'd stress the bullpen!" to rest.

I think using the rebuilding of the Twins farm system as a critique, either way, of Ryan's GM abilities is misplaced. Ryan inherited a system that had a lot of talent in the low minors. In addition he's had a top 5 draft pick the last several years. He also has had a crappy major league team that allowed him to trade his aging veterans with value to bring high upside guys into the system. These are things all GMs would have/could have done. Bill Smith guys: Miguel Sano Eddie Rosario Jorge Polanco Felix Jorge Travis Harrison Max Kepler Fernando Romero Kennys Vargas Trades of Veteran players: Alex Meyer Trevor May High Draft Picks: Byron Buxton Kohl Stewart Nick Gordon Players that were "found" under Ryan: Jose Berrios - Though he was the 32nd overall that draft Lewis Thorpe AB Walker II Stephen Gonsalves Nick Burdi I think it's pretty clear that the minor league system was developed by a variety of sources, most of which any GM would have done. Every high ranking player basically fell into Terry Ryan's lap due to the previous GM or the situation the Twins find themselves in at the major league level. Now, I think it's also important to point out that Ryan has done a good job with his 1st round picks and some of his international FA's in the low minors look like they could be good players. We'll have to see how they pan out. In addition he hasn't traded away any of the prospects trying to create a band-aid. I guess you could also say that by ignoring the major league squad he created the situation that led to those high draft picks. This has been a very long way of saying that Ryan has done somethings well since his return but the farm system doesn't weigh much into the equation. He inherited a situation that was beneficial, perhaps even destined, to lead to a strong system regardless of the GM.

It's not about being negative or pointing out the faults of the organization over the last few years. It's about being realistic about where we're at. It's easy to look at these prospect rankings and get really excited, and hoping on the future is a great thing currently, but it should also be in the back of everyones head that the Twins promote slowly and so these rankings don't tell the whole story. When we are dreaming on the future we need to keep in mind that other teams have more young talent than exists in these rankings. To me it's a reminder that the Twins can't get complacent and throw their hands up and wait for the young guys to come up.

I agree with Jorgenswest. Prospect rankings are great but what really matters is players under a particular age (25 seems like a good cutoff). Does anyone think that Michael Wacha is worth less going forward than Meyer? Or that Giancarlo Stanton doesn't matter but Sano does? The Cardinals, Rangers, Marlins, for example, would "rank" much higher when looking at under 25.

Perhaps they could have done something differently before the transition to shore up the rotation, I haven't looked at it closesly enough to know the details. My point has only been that in June of 2010, when the franchise was bumping up against their financial constraints, they seem to have drafted a quick to the big leagues pitcher in an attempt to shore up their rotation. Given the state of the rotation and the prospects available I'm not sure that they were wrong in picking Wimmers.

You're being unfair to both Wimmers and Gibson. Both were considered to have considerably more upside than "back-end-potential". Predicted revenues and actual revenues are very different beasts. Expecting the Twins to commit long term to pushing payroll to the limit of those expectations in the first year of the stadium seems a bit much in my opinion. I'm curious to know who you would have signed in the 2011 offseason. Here's a list of FA pitchers.

It's hard to fault the Twins when the payroll was already sitting at >$95 million and they didn't know what their future revenue would be since it was their first year in the stadium. In addition that is the offseason they extended Mauer for $23 million.

I think they drafted for need by picking Wimmers and in that case I'm not sure it was wrong. At the major league level the Twins were ready offensively with Morneau, Cuddyer, Mauer, Hardy, the good Danny Valencia, Delmon Young (everyone hoped he would take off and in fact he OPS'd .826 that season), Span and Kubel. Everyone on that team was 24-28 except Cuddyer who was 31. That looked like an offense that was set to roll the next several seasons. On the other hand the starters were struggling mightly. Led by 35 year old Pavano they also featured struggling Baker, Blackburn and Slowey. The previous season Swarzak, Perkins and Liriano had bottomed out. Just on the horizon at AAA they had these stellar prospects to look forward to: David Bromberg, Cole DeVries, Matt Fox, Kyle Gibson (had just gone under the knife), Deolis Guerra (6+ ERA), Brad Hennessey, Yoslan Herrera, Steven Hirschfield, Tim Lahey, Jose Lugo, Jeff Manship, Mike Maroth, Ryan Mullins, Glen Perkins (5.8 ERA), Chris Province, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak (6.21 ERA). Every pitcher here made at least 1 start at AAA that year. In fact there was nobody at AA either. You have to go all the way down to A+ to find the next legit pitching prospect, Liam Hendriks. So, the Twins had an just moved into a new ballpark and had an offense that looked ready to be stellar for years to come. On the other hand the pitching was mess and there were no prospects on the horizon. I think under those circumstances trying to draft a guy who might end up a 2-4 starter and make it to the majors within the next calendar year makes some sense. You can't reach the playoffs without decent pitching and we were looking at a dearth. Now clearly things didn't turn out that way but I can't fault the Twins from trying to "win now" with the circumstances as they were.

The Reds are in the middle of a pennant chase. They will not be trading a pitcher currently in their starting rotation. That is not a possibility. In addition, IMO, they won't give up on Cingrani. Lefties who throw hard and strike people out are rare and very coveted commodities. If you're looking for pitching return for Willingham you need to look to their minor league system. They have a very highly regarded pitcher in Stevenson but Willingham doesn't command that kind of return. After that they seem to have a slew of middle to back of the rotation options when I glanced.

Earlier this year (before the draft) BA had a depressing article looking at college relievers drafted in the 1st round (which at the time Burdi was expected to go). Of the 10 or so that have been drafted in the last 15ish years only 1 has pitched in the majors after the age of 25. That kind of blew my mind a bit. It is right up there with the lack of pitchers 6'7" and taller that have had successful careers as starters.

I think how they handle Buxton this year will tell us a lot about how they will handle Sano's promotion schedule next season. Do they move them up as soon as they show they've regained their timing/form or do they wait for half a season or so. Winter League is a good point. Thanks for the discussion.