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snepp

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Everything posted by snepp

  1. snepp
    Unfortunately I don't think we'll see Revere spending enough time in right field to amass much of a sample size for comparison.
  2. snepp
    http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2413147/Raul2.gif
  3. snepp
    Revere's history is much too small to draw any conclusions. Given that lack of history, and the previously established trends from his peers, which is more likely? That he's an aberration who performs at a ridiculously higher level in the corner, or that he'll perform similarly to other centerfielders who have also played a corner? Sure it's possible he could end up being a +20 run defender in right, while only being a 0 in center, but it's not likely. (figures exaggerated for effect) It's not a technicality, or playing of semantics, nor is highlighting the enormous problems with a statistic "petty." The projection of UZR/150 in a small sample is completely meaningless. It provided no benefits in this discussion. I also did not ignore the UZR differences, I even cited his UZR runs, they support what I've been saying about the difference between positions and their effects on WAR value.
  4. snepp
    Historical trends, an enormous sample. I never said UZR wasn't in FG's WAR. I said UZR/150 played no part, that's what you were using and focusing on.
  5. snepp
    Two small, partial season samples of defensive data, the equivalent of 6 weeks worth of hitting stats. There just isn't much to support the idea that he'll become less valuable in center.
  6. snepp
    Every centerfielder alive has more value in a corner spot defensively compared to all the lumbering oafs that roam out there. I'm really struggling to see the point behind this. No, his WAR won't automatically go down just because he "loses" defensive value in center, because the value of the position goes up in similar proportion. The difference in positional value between a corner spot, and centerfield, is 10 runs over a full season (-7.5 runs for LF/RF, +2.5 for CF). It's possible he loses more than 10 runs of defensive value between the two, but that's stretching it a bit.
  7. snepp
    Right, UZR/150 is no different than taking 5 homeruns in 10 games and calling a player an 80 homerun hitter.
  8. snepp
    Yes.
  9. snepp
    You're getting too hung up on UZR/150 (which isn't used in WAR anyway), it takes the already existing problem of small defensive samples and magnifies them. Revere was worth 10 defensive runs in 2011, and worth 15 defensive runs in 2012. The bulk of that difference was made up for by the difference in positional value (4). The difference between his offensive value in 2011, and 2012, was 10 runs, that's the bulk of that 3.1 and 1.7 WAR difference.
  10. snepp
    And that was due primarily to the differences in his offensive value, as well as a larger quantity of playing time in 2012. The defensive side had little to do with it.
  11. snepp
    Much of what he loses in defensive WAR by being compared to other centerfielders he'll gain back through the positional adjustment.
  12. snepp
    Hopefully without punting free agency yet again, with even more money to spend.
  13. snepp
    Smells like win?
  14. snepp
    Even lousy hitters will accumulate a bunch of RBI if they hit behind high-OBP players. RBI, without the help of significant context, is useless for player evaluation.
  15. snepp
    No one can gargle a mouthful of stones quite like Telly.
  16. snepp
    That would require obtaining usage permission from the Astros.
  17. snepp
    Not a good plate appearance there.
  18. snepp
    Hell of a start for Fien.
  19. snepp
    Correction Dickbert, that's SPEED! at second base.
  20. snepp
    They gritted that run in.
  21. snepp
    Florimon just wanted to bring some diversity to the set.
  22. snepp
    I live in my workspace, I can do whatever the hell I want.
  23. snepp
    MVP-"type" season. Drink.
  24. snepp
    We're all winners here.
  25. snepp
    Unfortunately it's also mandatory for watching these Twins.
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