jokin

The Twins injury cycle begins again: ....nagging injuries become chronic.... while sometimes accompanied by incomplete/inadequate rehabbing and/or curious offseason surgery timings , thus exposing lack of Plan B personnel depth....."day-to-day" statuses ultimately morphing into DL listings.... players returning at less than full-strength, leading to......nagging injuries becoming chronic.... Another string of Plouffe's bad luck, a Twins Curse or, Incompetence, is hard to quantify, but in the real world it might very soon be time for the local writers to repolish those glittering stories about how well the presumed-by-default opening-day starter, Escobar, plays 3B.

March 11, 2013 - Predicted postemptive response from BW and ON (in unison): "Talk to the hand"...

1) I think the evidence suggests they have tied the knot. (ie, AA OF expected to make the double jump promotion, cover his own defensive area, plus nearly half of the inadaequately manned LF and RF zones, as well...and, oh, bat leadoff besides). Can we agree that for the Twins to be contending season-long, although hope indeed springs eternal, is as likely as rolling two consecutive 7s and the FO knows this to be the case? And let's say both Hicks and Gibson hit as 7s, there are still way too many more guys that are almost certain to roll snake-eyes. [(1/6)^2, or 2.8%- it could happen, but they have instead chosen to get leaner and meaner for the interim, take their lumps the next 2 years and look 3 years out to 2015.] 2) On Hicks immediate future, I am in firm agreement and I like his chances a lot better than Dozier's of making it, but man, that's a lot of pressure on a first-year kid, especially if the intention is "winning". The fact that Podsednik was floated by the Twins as a possible CF alternative tipped their hand pretty much that they will go with any run-of-the-mill placeholder at the first sign of Hicks faltering, the Podfather isn't exactly a candidate for Shannon Stewart-status as The Difference Maker. 3) The Twins, of course, will never say this, but their offseason inactions (and aforementioned actions) spoke volumes. I got in trouble with some in the dog days of last season for predicting that the Twins were going to follow through with their whisper campaign of taking a meat cleaver to the payroll. Now that they actually exceeded my worst fears, looking at the potential draft class in 2014 (looks pretty promising), are the Twins no lo contendre-ing on purpose to get another top 1-3 pick?, And, therefore, planning on further gutting the lineup midseason (wholesale trade of the usual suspects) and/or receiving a supplemental pick for Morneau on a QO? Conclusion: The Twins are likely going to give H & G a good chunk of the year at the MLB level in '13 to get their feet under them with the Twins (possibly along with Arcia when a spot open up at the trade deadline), and begin the staggered 3-year process across the bridge of MLB promotions. "Winning" sure seems like a secondary priority with all these impending machinations, particularly for an organization unwilling or unable to multitask in the FA and Trade Markets for needed positional players and affordable quality SPs this offseason.

I think it's evidently apparent that the Rays identify draftable talent and minor league talent very well. Furthermore, their cash flow position has forced them to become very shrewd evaluators (talent and cost) of major league talent. IE: 1)Young for Garza and Bartlett/ 2)Garza for Archer (BA #36 Prospect) & Fuld("best #4 OF in BB")/ 3) Shields for Myers (BA #4 Prospect), Montgomery(BA #23 Prospect), Odorizzi(BA# 92 Prospect). The Rays have their act together in evaluating and developing talent in all departments, and never make an excuse about playing in the toughest Division in baseball- or playing in the worst park, in the worst market in baseball. (Hire Matt Arnold).

I fear what the Twins are about to step in, even with their best foot forward. Particularly when they needlessly tied one hand behind their back!

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that way back a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career, albeit in his own style in producing the numbers? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper (sans the delayed call-up). If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks, just as they did with Hunter. The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what the OP has practically deemed as the gospel outcome. He also failed to note Hicks' unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2). FWIW: Hunter's first-year slash line was .255/.309/380/.689 (his BABIP dropped dramatically to .289): http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails...71&position=OF

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper. If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks. The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what you have practically deemed as the gospel outcome. You also failed to note his unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2): http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=sa454371&position=OF [TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 978] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: left][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: left][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [/TABLE]

I guess I also missed the day that "out over his skis" became a baseball buzzword...

So good to hear your day was made a little brighter at my expense...

See there you go again, Sano and Berrios only know what they say in futbol, and "come on, man" won't necessarily translate the way you intended. Ryan got caught speaking Snowbirdese about, and inevitably, to, a kid who's never even seen snow and has not a clue about how his swagger isn't getting too far out over his ski tips yet.

You, of all folks, what with your BYTO background, should know this was satire. It simply struck me as quite odd that Ryan would use a snow skiing analogy for a kid that most likely has never seen snow. And oh yeah, remember my moniker...?

This is how communication breaks down. Holy Clash of Cultures! Ryan might want some tips on analogy-references with Carribean prospects or they won't have a clue what he's trying to impart to them. What was it he said about Sano, and how he was fitting in? "That Miguel, he's sure one cool customer at the plate, and for that matter, despite his size, he never looks like a football player over at Third Base." It might also explain why Casilla could never quite fit in and get over the hump, he never could translate TR's American metaphorical descriptions for him properly. Given the Latin-American culture and their demonstrated hangups on homosexuality, during Casilla's developing years as a prospect, Ryan might have said something like, " We really like him a lot, especially being a switch hitter, in the middle infield I can see him going both ways...."

I know we've had this conversation before, but gee whiz, CAN the slider if he can't master it or disguise it properly- and- CAN Cuellar teach this kid a cutter in short order? If he had an effective one, he'd have probably gotten that Angels guy to ground out or K, Glunn- and all these discussions about his flawed "mental approach" and "confidence level" become moot.

Bagger has 23 and 25 in his first two years, he gets to 30 this year by default (don't blow out his arm, Gardy!). On Chick, I hope you're overshooting it a bit, as the Twins ultimately come to realize what Pitt figured out last year. On Hendriks, you're as optimistic as me (keeping all fingers crossed). On Harden, you're trying to remain optimistic about that Lotto ticket in your pocket. On Gibson, you're less optimistic than me, I'm hoping for 18-20. On Pelfrey, I wish it was 18- at the deadline- and on an unprecedented TJ Miracle Comeback story, making him a valuable asset to acquire a prospect (I used up all my fingers on my Hendriks wish, so not holding my breath on this one). Speaking of optimism, you forgot about Gardy's boundless optimism for Duensing, who is thus "bound" to get a 10 appearance SP run- to ineptitude- just shortly after showing quite well as the 3rd best BP option. On DeVries, you could just as well make the category, "DeVries and the Rest" as Blackie ( he is likely due for a Nishi-like farewell tour at some point in '13), Deduno and Walters are bound to give us a trip down the 2012 nostalgia lane at some point in 2013, with Raffie Perez getting a make-up-game DH start, thus fulfilling that pre-season, "stop the presses", Rob Antony oh-so-eager ("he's fully healthy!") optimism.

Ifs and Buts are Candy for Nuts.

I don't hit the like button too often, but you are on posting fire:shoot::s-instagib: my friend.

Pick cherries much, TWO?

RB, I'm with you on everthing in your post, sans your opening statements. The club's offseason actions strongly tipped their hand that the bulk of their decision-making is based upon "tomorrow", not "today". Thus, the selling to the public that cutting the payroll another 25% and then celebrating the Correia signing as your headline FA acquisition and stripping the top of your order and your keystone defensive players (with no obvious heir-apparents) for 2 minor league pitchers and a question mark SP, and no effort to bolster other obvious holes as much of your AL Central competition is doing precisely the opposite- is the Twins silent scream: "2013 is a lost season". How else should a loyal fan interpret the current situation?

Uhh, if you think Hicks will be a strikeout machine, you'll love the Air Conditioning that Benson would provide to Target Field this spring.

As a long-time Ray-o-phile, and frustrated with the 21st Century-long Twins futility with the AL East, your words are aptly put. And it isn't really the Twin's futility on the field, it's the inability of the club to take Rays-like organizational steps to become more consistently competitive with the East, especially considering that during most of this era, the Twins have been positioned to carry a larger payroll and had superior competitive advantages to the Rays- in positional talent- and up to more recently, superior pitching talent, as well.

1) Hicks/Mauer is my personal preference, as well, w/ Carroll @ #9 (terrific in 2012 batting 9th: 274/357/333 vs. League Average of 233/292/349). Unfortunately, we all understand that it is unlikely to happen. 2) I think we all know that Dozier is going to be given every chance to bat Second, but Parmelee fits into the AL East concept of the 2-Hole batter to a certain extent and could possibly answer the concerns about OBP, while providing a pull-hitting LHB to hit behind Hicks and offset his lack of speed by providing a much more favorable GB/FB ratio to the alternatives and increased OF gap power to limit the DP possibilities and increase the overall TB numbers. Consider- if OBP is the main concern, these are Parmelee's career batting slashes, which are encouraging enough to suggest that if given a chance, Parm could develop into a superior OBP guy in the 2-Hole: MLB: 265/336/448 (w/ MOB 278/354/426) AAA: 338/457/645 MiL: 273/365/455 Here's the AL average at the 2-Hole in 2012: AL#2: 254/314/389 Here's the Twins average at the 2-Hole in 2012 vs. AL East team slashes (Revere skews up the Twins numbers, getting half the ABs @ #2): MNT2: 273/321/329 NYY2: 253/341/479 TBJ2: 247/319/422 BOS2: 263/312/397 BAL2: 230/277/375 TBR2: 230/304/423 2012 AL East Average: 249/311/419. This data shows that OBP is clearly less important in the AL East- while power is clearly emphasized, even to light-hitting Tampa Bay! Parmelee could provide clearly superior OBP numbers to the AL East average while possibly matching or exceeding their power numbers. More data: XBHs in the 2-Hole for the Twins in 2012: 27 XBHs AL East average at 2-Hole in 2012: 59.5 SFH for Twins from 2-Hole in 2012: 10 SFH for AL East average @#2 in 12: 5.1 I have no hope that the Twins would at least try this option, but the alternatives for this year are comparatively pathetic. (Sadly, after retrieving all these numbers, it made putting Mauer at #2 all-the-more-obvious decision).

The Twins would never go that FA route for anyone meaningfully impactful, anyway. I would like them to try to repeat their trade with the Brewers in acquiring Hardy- trade an excess OF for a proven-sure-fielding, albeit with power, yet value-diminished rehabilitating, mid-20s SS- from a team looking to shed a soon-to-be unaffordable asset.

Rinse, lather, repeat....

Or in the case of Florimon, the previous August.

Agree with this and have advocated for such in the past. With no obvious potentially successful candidates for typical Gardy batting order construction and his adamant opposition to moving Mauer up in the order, why not try an AL East-style bopping #2 hole hitter instead of a Slap-N-Punch-N-Judy that inexplicably has Gardy so enamored to? This would be a good chance in a 1st Down-Punting season to experiment with Parmelee hitting just behind Hicks/Mastro and just in front of Mauer. Now, all we need is someone to spike Gardy's cherry juice to get this done.