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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    It's all in here: Anibal Sanchez » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 and here: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 I computed the WAR values for each set of years in comparison to every other SP and they all came up "8". Or this year #1. Or, "Elite".
  2. jokin
    He's not a great pitcher, I never said he was, but the Twins wanted an innings eater, and they wanted something strictly from the bargain basement. Hold on to your hat when you read this: Kevin Correia Total WAR since 2008: 3.3 Contract: $10M John Lannan Total WAR since 2008: 4.5 Contract: $2.5M Lannan hasn't had a negative WAR rating in any season during that time, Correia has had 2 years with negative WAR.
  3. jokin
    San Francisco had a big "albatross" nearing the end of his career on their roster going into 07. What did they do? They signed what turned out to be a much worse "albatross" (Zito) for a long-term contract that is just now beginning to come to an end. Their payroll moved up to $89.7M before dropping in 08 with the departures of Bonds and Morris and the addition of Rowand (+). And then they added Renteria (+) and Johnson (-) in 09 to make it a payroll of $82.6M. And then they won it all in '10, with extensions, resignings and smaller acquired talented pieces, moving the payroll to a Twins-like $97M. The point being, a bad signing or two is not the end of the world that you seem to assume it has to be. And as stated below by Snepp, actually doing things by shooting for acquiring legitimate quality WAR value, and missing occasionally and going to "Plan B', and continuing to build around your maturing talented youth... is a far better strategy than year after year of incessant dumpster diving for Sow's Ears with little more than Hail Mary Hope of turning that Pigskin into Silk Purses.
  4. jokin
    I just had an Apocalypse Now flashback. "Do You Smell That!?"
  5. jokin
    How absurd is "absurd", by your definition? 160 or so SPs in baseball over the last 4 years. Sanchez is the top rated SP in 2013. #8 for 2012-13. #8 for 2011-13. #8 for 2010-13. # 8 would place him in the top 5%. My definition has him as "elite."
  6. jokin
    I concur with your list, they were on mine, too. Also Jackson and Lannan. Jackson is pitching far better this year than his ERA numbers indicate, periphs good at, better, or near, career levels, FIP at 3.50, Big Innings Guy---200 IP/Yr over the last 5 years. Is anyone on the Twins going to reach even 175 innings this year? Lannan is also an autmatic 200 inning/yr. guy, on the ultra-cheap. He pitched great in his first 2 outings before an injury in his 3rd- he's out until June, but like you stated, that's baseball.
  7. jokin
    Swarzak has appeared in 3 Twins wins and suffered the loss in a 4th potential win. That would be 4 out of 10 appearances. Leverage situations and Swarzak? Glad you asked. This year he's been in Hi/Med Lev. situations 30.2% of the time. His bOPS in High Leverage is .833 and .888 for Medium Leverage, versus overall .645, so his "positive" numbers are heavily greased. For his career he's given up 14 of his 36 HRs allowed in High/Medium Lev. situations- a 39% rate. With his career HR/FB being nearly 10% and even applying his artificially low FB% in 2013, he still is about 3 HRs behind what would be "normal" for him. HRs? For his career, he has given up 14 of 36 HRs in High and Medium Leverage, 38.9%.
  8. jokin
    A "rebuild" is when you gut your entire lineup of high dollar players and bring in youngsters and ultra-cheap, veteran placeholders. That is not the current state of affairs with the Twins. With the intact core from 2010, this easily could/should have been a reload/reboot team. The key part in this strategy would have been in identifying and acquiring the needed assets as they become available, elite players for the longer term (Sanchez) and stop-gap rent/flip-a-players (Maholm, Carroll) while waiting for the farm to mature.
  9. jokin
    Plouffe is virtually Top Ten among all 3B in OPS for May @ .827 and 15 points above 3B OPS average on the season .737 vs .722. And he's bound to have at least some version of last summer's home run binge again this summer; he's taking many more better ABs than he was taking just a year ago at this point in May, when he was barely batting over .100. (His current OBP is higher than last year's full season number). As a long-term placeholder, the Twins could do a lot worse.
  10. jokin
    I know it's early in the day, but I couldn't give you a like in this instance without your accompanying obligatory picture-rama.... ie, something such as: SOB scowling traffic cop, wrecked and mangled car, Armageddon nuclear wasteland- we all know it's coming- your regularly pithy pictorializations of our inevitable pain will at least soften the coming blow-up.
  11. jokin
    To build on the doomsday scenario... Twins RP staff has the 4th highest (worst) ranking in FB% while having the 3rd best number in HR/FB. Coupled with the inevitable RP tired arms from overuse--- Regression Warning: "Objects in your rear view mirror are closer than they appear."
  12. jokin
    You're right. That's what I said, "straight to CF", right after looking at the weatherunderground forecast, sorry about the mix-up, I shorthanded my answer.
  13. jokin
    Don't forget SP ERA. After yesterday, we moved up from #4 to #3 (from the bottom) with a new-look-staff 5.18. While that number is a little less than one run better than last year's April and May numbers, it's still worse than June, July, August, September of 2012, which was when the staff was manned by a string of unproven minor leaguers.
  14. jokin
    Yup. I've been envisioning the Doumit move since the offseason, and best of all, Pinto is already on the roster. With the relative success of Arcia, perhaps the Twins will be more willing to pull the trigger on the trade AND the double-promotion for Pinto. In the meantime, I hope the Twins don't become enamored with some out-of-shape, "worse than his numbers", relief pitcher and trade away their best catching prospect and keep their worst catching prospects. (And BTW, Luis Martinez is OPSing .808 in the Orioles system after a very late start to his season coming off of an oblique injury, he would have been a nice, FREE, minor league catching depth acquisition, ending the string of Butera/Fryer/Lehmann non-hitting-catchers that the Twins so love).
  15. jokin
    Are you surprised about Pineda not going through E-Town, first, Seth? Any implications for CF and Buxton?
  16. jokin
    I am in complete agreement on this. Hernandez seems destined for a career ceiling of middle-multi-inning-lefty-specialist-one-grade-above-LOOGY. His L-R split is horrendous.
  17. jokin
    Straight out to CF---I have a feeling there are going to be some dented ERAs tonight. The temperature is already hitting over 100F in Northern Iowa and Southwest MN, the intense heat is heading right in this direction--- Twins Promotion this evening?---Blanket Night!
  18. jokin
    I'd "like" your post but I don't like vomit...and at least the 50s was a great era for cars and movies...
  19. jokin
    Well there's that, and the option remaining on Worley. Wouldn't Pelfrey be in the situation medically, where he would agree to a Joe Nathan-like rehab assignment?
  20. jokin
    I like Morneau, too, but 1B has to be the easiest position player to replace. You can get the same or more production for a lot less money, and then you can use that saved payroll to improve the other glaring holes on the roster. Here are the 2014 1B FAs: Corey Hart (32) Todd Helton (40) Eric Hinske (36) Xavier Nady (35) Mike Napoli (32) Paul Konerko (38) Casey Kotchman (31) Adam Lind (30) - James Loney (30) Kendrys Morales (30) Mike Morse (32) Lyle Overbay (37) Carlos Pena (36) Mark Reynolds (30) Kevin Youkilis (35) And that's not counting the multiple, even cheaper, in-house options. If Morneau goes through the Free Agency route and discovers that he is willing to come back for say, 2 years @ $16M or with a team option for Year 3 for a net cost in the low-$20sM, I'd say go ahead, but I doubt Morneau would settle for that.
  21. jokin
    Uhh, please refer just 4 posts back to Post # 477. The Giants payroll was less than the Twins in 2010, at 97M and it was 132M last year. While the Giants had arb and pre-arb talent on their roster which they did a good job locking up, they continually sprinkled in impact FAs pretty regularly from 2006 until now. They also retained and bought out arb years for their up and comers. And they did it all while holding a long-term, "franchise-wrecking" contract with Barry Zito.
  22. jokin
    I'd say you're doing quite well if you can get a 50% return on your pitching prospects. Sadly, the Twins are probably expecting at least a 75% return.
  23. jokin
    A tale of 2 teams- it can be done- even with one of the worst ball-and-chain contracts ever to Barry Zito Twins: 2006 1st place $65.0 M payroll 2007 3rd place $72.2 M payroll Goodbye Santana, Hunter, Castillo, Silva 2008 2nd place $61.4 M payroll Hello Livan 2009 1st place $67.0 M payroll Goodbye Livan 2010 1st place $98.2 M payroll Hello Pavano, Hardy, Hudson 2011 5th place $113 M payroll First year of Mauer @ $23M Re-sign Pavano 16.5M?? 2012 5th place $100 M payroll Good bye Cuddy, Delmon, Kub, Thome, Slowey Hello Nishi and Marquis San Francisco Giants 2006 1st place $90.0M payroll 2007 5th place $89.7M payroll Hello Zito- longterm franchise-wrecking "disaster" contract of $125M 2008 4th place $75.9M payroll Bye-bye BB, Ramirez Hello Rowand 2009 3rd place $84.6M payroll Hello Randy Johnson, Renteria 2010 1st place $97.0M payroll Re-upped Lincecum @$23M WORLD SERIES 2011 2nd place $118M payroll Re-upped Huff @$20M Xtnd Wilson @$15M 2012 !st place $132M payroll Hello Cabrera Xtnd Cain @$136M/Lincecum $40.5M WORLD SERIES
  24. jokin
    I think it's just Hicks responding big to the Antoan Richardson potential roster challenge.
  25. jokin
    Missed the Twitter tonight, Seth. Any idea of the implications for Rochester and New Britain? Is this a one-day thing with the Rock Cats idle? Is Thomas still hurting? Are they contemplating a major league roster move? So many questions, maybe it's just a meritorious promotion?
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