jokin

Uhh... Nope... If this is how it ultimately plays out, this is an unmitigated disaster. *** And you're also incorrect about Span's first year with the Nats. He wasn't as good as he was in 2014, but he still produced the identical fWAR- 3.4- from his last season with the Twins. Seth appears to have closed the book on Meyer in the rotation- but you can't simply whitewash the fact that that's already acknowledging the Twins wasted 3 years of failed development time better spent elsewhere- and wasting 3 years of Meyer's bullets in the process. You argue that the Twins simply had to take the risk. Really? What has been the Twins' track record on developing over-sized hard throwers? Zilch. I'd argue (and I did argue such at the time) that the price and risk were far too high in making a strong-up-the-middle-player-for-pure-prospect swap. Dave Cameron followed suit on my opinion within a day or so. You simply can't just shed a cost-controlled and a clearly superior-to-the-average player at an elite position unless you get a useful proven major league piece thrown into the transaction (Drew Storen? 2.3 fWAR from 2013-15)- to compensate if you lose the bet on your lotto pick piece. Losing Span, the heart of the Twins OF defense, left a gaping hole that resulted in one of the main reasons that the Twins were the laughing stock of baseball, save the Astros (look who's laughing now). *** Span has accumulated 8.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. By contrast, if the Twins had traded for a Top 10 veteran RP instead of Meyer, the average net accumulated fWAR for the best 10 RPs over the same 3-year span is 5.79. With Meyer going to the pen- and since early results aren't exactly encouraging that he can ever be an annual Top 10 MLB RP, the Twins will almost certainly never recover the lost value that Span has and will continue to accumulate before he retires. Again, it's important to reiterate, a Top 100 prospect over the last 4 years, ranked as such just 6 months ago, one of the two highest hopes to become the elusive Twins Ace- is now only the 3rd highest rated relief pitching prospect (with the other two guys above him full of their own question marks)- which could mean he ends up being a 6th or 7th inning guy down the road if it plays out that way. That's quite a long fall from glory in such a small 6-month span of time.

To reiterate, you are now officially on record with this statement from above: The Twins have not publicly stated that Meyer has permanently been designated as a reliever- it seems more like the opposite is true in their public statements. And to have Meyer considered as such from this point forward- (you do seem "convinced"- for whatever reason(s)- that this is now how the Twins are envisioning that his career path proceeds, right?)- pretty much means that the trade with Washington has been a disaster, most definitely difficult, if not impossible to get a "positive" takeaway here. By these rankings, Meyer is now behind two guys who have had their own share of struggles, but who only ever projected as RPs. Again, this was a guy who only 6 months ago was rated as the BP #14-ranked prospect in all of baseball- not #13 on the Twins. I'm not saying your conclusion is necessarily wrong, just that it's hard to accept the stamp of a positive spin on a guy who's ceiling only 6 months ago was said to be as an "Ace".

The Yankees have to be kicking themselves- sure, they ended up getting McCann, but Martin has vaulted ahead of McCann over the last 3 years- Martin 12.6 fWAR vs. McCann 8.1 fWAR . And Anthopoulos does look like a genius in how he got it done so early in the process (signed on 11/17/14), and yet still convincing Martin's agent to sign a back-loaded 5-year contract- Martin played for only $7M in 2015, and just $15M in 2016.

Uhh, yeah..! And now BOTH Burdi and Chargois rated above Meyer- ? This makes little sense- Meyer was a Top 100 prospect four years in a row going into 2015 and as high as #14 on the 2015 BP list- unless Seth knows something seriously wrong underlying Meyer's current situation and can't state it publicly. This point is where the intrigue kicks in- as more than one TD writer downgraded Meyer's Twins' top prospect rating- before Spring Training and Meyer's struggles began in 2015- while all but one of the national services kept their rating the same or even kicked Meyer's Top 100 ranking higher.

Funny how that phrase actually works both ways its stated: http://scontent-a.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-15/10643876_739837772773581_1813009482_a.jpg

Yep. And things got simplified a bit with Torii's announcement out of the way. Time to get back to work, Terry. (the problem is he has tended to get enamored with these feel-good reunion and underappreciated veteran deals over taking on a shot on a home run- a lot less muss and fuss... and $$$-> Pohlad has already come out and stated that he doesn't like the back-end cost of these long-term deals- which pretty much rules out Wieters. And don't forget, Ryan would be reticent to risk looking foolish by signing or acquiring another high-cost catcher- so soon after making a big splash with the big Zuke extension).

- Yep. Never said it was a good plan. - A little bit better than nothing plan? Probably. (Remember, at the very least, a semi L-R platoon should offer an increase in offensive production at the position, and definitely guarantees that Zuke's 2017 option doesn't vest). - A plan that is quickly determined by TR to be: better than nothing when all other options fail after less than 100% commitment to getting Plan A and Plan B done- and the Twins' default SOP least-path-of-resistance/bring- home-another-aging-vet-whose-defense-is-better-than-his-numbers-indicate-type plan? Likely. So then, I would say that 2016 is going to be sold as a serious team that, basking in their "successful" veteran leadership upgrades, with Torii in 2015 and Zuke in 2014, will go to the well one more time and sell AJ as one of the remaining missing clubhouse/on-field leadership ingredients that will make all the difference in 2016. (Remember, you heard it here first )

Yikes... My google name search tells me that whatever you have to say is fine with me, Sir! (Anything else one can do to keep you laughing not in a mean way?) http://www.wisconsinbjj.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/mike-sixel.jpg Mike Sixel Neutral Ground Martial Arts & Fitness - Competed in 13 Amateur and Professional MMA Fights - 5 Dan Black Belt in Pankration - Ranked #2 on North American Sport Karate Association circuit (2000) - Ranked #1 in the State in Point Sparring (1996-1998)

Perhaps I'm not following you. If Ryan ends up settling for AJ after all other angles fail to materialize, is that still not a net upgrade in 2016 from the current situation?

I'm not hearing a lot of love, more a temporary marriage of convenience.

To be clear, my posts weren't intended to be antagonistic and argumentative, just... pointed... in my disagreements and differences of opinion about certain names and certain perceptions about the relative strengths/weaknesses in the Twins approach in the draft selection past the 1st round in the 2010s as well as the international FA strategies since the Twins hit the jackpot in 2009. Your work in this area is greatly appreciated and indispensable to many of us, Seth. (Also appreciated is your willingness to respond and engage in this forum). 1) Perhaps I wasn't clear. My question about where you might have gotten your information on Navarretto was not meant as a slight or indictment of you. In point of fact, it would be poor reporting if you didn't reach out to get comprehensive information on each and every prospect from inside sources who work with, or see the kids year-round. You would have to admit though, that when a kid who hasn't done anything to particularly stand out so far in his professional career and suddenly jumps into the top 20 will cause some of us to inquire further to determine the source to establish the validity of that jump. 4) I highly doubt that even going all the way back to early Babe Ruth League that Butera ever showed anything that suggested the hit tool of Buxton, Hicks, Plouffe. And if there was any doubt, his career MiLB numbers: .214 BA .607 OPS in 1829 PAs should have been sufficient evidence that he would turn out to be- the worst hitter in all of baseball with 850 PAs or more since 2010. His wRC+ is 39. Here's the supporting link. His lifetime .185 BA at least has made Mario Mendoza very, very happy- futility has a new name to rally around in Drew Butera. Butera is so off-the-charts bad, the 2nd worst hitting catcher, Mike Zunino looks like Mike Piazza when comped to Drewbie. 5) Again, I was not criticizing your picks of two possible future back-up catchers. Just questioning the conventional wisdom about organizational strength. I hope that one or both blossom in 2016 and begin to solve the Twins' catching black hole, I prefer being optimistic if given good reason to do so.

Feel free to do so. In contrast, I am confident in what I've seen of him over his MLB career, that never having been rated in the Twins Top 30 prospect list was confirmed by what he's accomplished on the field.

Only one way to find out. And I don't think anyone would argue that the MLB opportunity and need was there for the Twins to take the chance and find out. They obviously didn't know about Duffey until they were forced to do so in a numbers game. And it's important to note that at one point (as I posted at the time), Rogers was 36/1 in K/BB vs. LH hitters.

All fair rebuttal points, and definitely good food for thought. Five questions for your consideration to counter: 1) You mention some "people think" with regards to Navarretto, I'm assuming they helped in convincing you that there's more than currently meets the eye with him? Are these people inside the organization, or outside? 2) Drew Butera has accumulated all of -1.7 of bWAR in parts of 6 seasons- shouldn't we question, at least a little bit, all of these people who consider him having any more value than as a BP catcher? 3) Do you have any idea what Butera's highest Twins prospect ranking was? 4) If Butera was touching 94 in his Twins outing as a pitcher- and he has a 10.13 K/9 in his limited pitching duties- without ever taking the pitching thing seriously- who's to automatically dismiss what his chances were at becoming a MLB RP? 5) Doesn't every organization have at least a half dozen Eric Fryer's up and down their organizational chart who can get plugged in as the MLB back-up catcher at a moment's notice? I'm still unconvinced that a guy with a back-up catcher ceiling should merit much fan excitement about that organization's great/deep farm system. Based on your rankings here, the Twins may very well have 2 back-up catchers in their Top 20. Hopefully, Turner builds on his second half and changes the ceiling projection for good. I still say your team's system isn't all that deep with back-up ceiling catchers in the Top 20 and RP-ceiling pitchers in the Top 10.

I'm not arguing with you on this point. I myself questioned the jump in Navarreto's ranking upthread and pointed out how far ahead Perez was of Navarreto at the same age. Should guys that project as backup catchers ever be in an organization's Top 20? Frankly, the Twins probably should have looked more seriously into converting Butera when they had him, and they should seriusly think about converting Navarreto now.

But what if that's all there is? In terms of prospects. I'm kind-of with mikelink45 to this point in the rankings. Not too much to get excited about here, even most of the lotto tickets, between 16-50 on this list. Lots of guys moving backwards, most only projecting as bench/back-up/utility MLB players or low-leverage RPs- but as mikelin45 also hinted at- How much should we expect from this group, anyway?, and, How good really is the Twins farm system in terms of prospect depth beyond the 6 or 7 Top 100 types?

Salvador Perez would disagree with that conclusion.

Regarding Felix Jorge, I'm also puzzled that two qualified rankers can come to such widely divergent perspectives within a one-year time span. Mayo had Jorge at #11 in his 2014 list- for 2015, he's not even in his Twins Top 30. Seth sees the same results and moves Jorge up from #19 to #16. Any rationale for these two diametrically opposed conclusions?

Yep. I'd like to hear more of Seth's rationale for this placement of Navaretto in the top 20. MLB.com doesn't even have him in their Twins Top 30. Are there MiLB coaches or Twins management sources pushing this idea? What stood out in what Navarretto accomplishments in 2015 that Jonathan Mayo, et al, missed? And mentioning a Perez comp in way of support of Navarretto's anointment to the top 20 is a little dangerous, even if it's only iterated in relating their catching abilities. Salvi was OPSing at .732, in High A at age 20 (nearly 3 years younger than league average), vs. Navaretto's .537 OPS at A level (1.4 years younger than league average). Seems more like the ceiling of a future defensively good-to-strong back-up catcher, not the floor. Hope to be proven wrong on this.

Seth, have you had a chance to see him in action much? I haven't bothered to find video yet, but those pictures that Bob Sacramento published... looks like an absolute stud, athletically speaking. Is there a reasonable chance that he can stick at SS, or is he likely to grow out of the position?

And your post is an appropriate time to note, that of the Twins' three Goliath-sized pitching prospects- Alex Meyer still has the time and the best stuff on his side to still really get it together and take off. After seeing him pitch first-hand in AAA in mid-summer, 2014, no one can convince me otherwise that at the time, Meyer was more than ready for a July 1 or so MLB promotion along with Trevor May.

"Yes" or "Hopefully" to everything said above. For now, more of the same old, same old tonight from ABW2- 2-5 with the aforementioned power outburst and 3 Ks (overall, 6 Ks in 14 PAs so far. Meanwhile, Garver does well at the plate yet again, going 2-5, giving the Scottsdale team a 7-14 performance from the bottom 3 in their power-packed batting order (Walker- 7th, Giants #2-ranked prospect & 2013 1st round pick, 20YO SS, Christian Arroyo going 3-4- 8th, and Garver- 9th). I'm liking the friendly catcher battle. Jake Reed makes his 2015 AFL debut and sparkles, going 1.1 IP with 0 ER, 1 H., 1 K, 12 strikes in 17 pitches. Perhaps something to build on after his nightmare season. Hildenberger continues to impress with 1 scoreless IP and 1 H surrendered.

Yup. After initially being disappointed about this year's AFL group, I've somewhat reconsidered and I've now come to the conclusion that at least 4 of the individual storylines have become more compelling. Going up against the best in a pretty exclusive All Star league magnifies each PA. First off, it is significant that Nick Burdi achieved success after getting into his first AFL game on Friday- after pretty much a complete breakdown of his command and control in 2015. His previous league "debut" appearances have seen him so amped up that it quickly led to self-destruction- it seems that because of his occasional heightened emotional states, he might be his own worst enemy at times I thought it was important to note that he had a perfect inning with pinpoint control, against the best overall competition he's faced thus far. The Twins' two-catcher-prospect drama is a story that writes itself. It easily becomes a nice little daily horse race to find out who goes into next spring as the favorite to become the Twins' MiLB top backstop. ABW2- has there ever been a more controversial and intriguing minor league prospect more talked about than him since David Ortiz? And now he's earned a chance to really show what he's got vs. a coterie of the best young MiLB arms. Can he more than hold his own while lowering his K-rate, and also while increasing his productivity? The results will give a little indication for how highly he will be regarded going into 2016, presumably starting out in the Rochester OF.

Technically, Burdi, Walker and Turner did see action in the Friday game before it was ruled a rain out. Burid threw a scorelss, hitless, walkess, 1 K, 7 strikes in 9 pitch, inning. Walker hit a double in one AB Turner walked in his single PA.

Yep. It sure seems like there has to be more to the story here. Consider, Caleb T-Bar was drafted one round later than Batts (18th) by the Brewers. Both lefties. Both from smaller-type colleges. Similar-type builds. Batts has had a meteoric rise through the organization in just two years- culminating in a sparkling seaon in High A. while, Thielbar was released after his first two years and had as his only option to continue playing was with the St Paul Saints. Thielbar haa accumulated over one year of service time at better than 1/2 a million$ net, plus lifetime benefits, while, A cub reporter just starting out at a small town newspaper couldn't hope to make half a million in 10 years. Like I said, there has to be more to the story.