jokin

With the very apparent move away from signing higher-dollar/long term FAs, we need more than hope. It seems critical to the long-term success of the club to dramatically increasing the Hit/Miss rate on prospects. (BTW- Is there a service that grades clubs on their Hit/Miss rate on say, the first 5 or 10 rounds in the draft, plus the International signing period?)

How about 2 guys that may not be "miles apart???" Aaron Hicks OPS+ by age year 23) 63 24) 76 25) 98 26) 64 [1st year with Yankees] Hicks had 1218 ABs after his 4th season. 27) 122 28) 123 Byron Buxton OPS+ by age year 21) 57 22) 90 23) 93 24) 4 [only 90 ABs, multiple injuries] Buxton has 979 ABs so far. 25) ? 26) ? 27) ? 28) ? -Buxton @ age 21 OPS+ is close to Hicks 1st year @ age 23. -Buxton @ age 22 and 23 OPS+ were 2nd and 3rd years... very comparable to Hicks' 3rd year OPS+ @ age 25. -Buxton's career OPS+ is 80. After 4 seasons, and 2 years older than Buck, Hicks' OPS+ was ~75. -Buxton cumulative dWAR in first 4 years- (4.2) -Hicks cumulative dWAR in first 4 years- (0.6) -Buxton cumulative WAR in first 4 years- (6.9) -Hicks cumulative WAR in first 4 years- (2.0) It's still all about Buxton's upside and putting 2018 far in the rear view mirror.... and nothing else. In answering your question... It's pretty obvious the numbers tell us that we play this one out.

Arraez is sort of a Left Hand Hitting, MI Willians Astudillo. Nothing impresses physically to you by just looking at him. He won't steal a base for you. Or hit for power. But he is very similar to Astudillo regarding contact, BBs and Ks. He had the lowest K% rate, by far, in the Southern League @ 8.2%(w/ 195 or more PAs). His LD% was 2nd highest overall in the Southern @ 27.5%. His swinging strike % was 5th best overall, just a little behind contact-king LaMonte Wade. Does he enough range and glove to make it as a UI?

Yep. I must admit, seeing Kohl for the first time in 2018, was a pleasant surprise. His GB%, weak contact skills and legitimately good stuff on a couple of his pitches gives me some hope, particularly when the IF defense is upgraded with Lewis/Javier/Gordon. I also look forward to no longer pulling my hair out watching, waiting, hoping through 6 long years on the farm, that top young arms are still not ready to attack major league bats. Studies have shown that getting the best arms up sooner is the key to maximizing their career-length and effectiveness-longevity.

The problem with this theory is that it was fairly obvious to most on Twins Daily, and elsewhere, that the Stewart "success" in 2015-16 was largely illusory. His peripherals were screaming for major intervention- if- they were going to salvage anything close to an expected rate of return on a #4 overall pick in the draft. Perhaps his struggles in 2017 can be attributed to the first attempted salvage operation implemented by the new FO. It's apparent that 2014-16 were to some extent a waste of developmental time- and given Stewart's current "prospect/suspect" status at age 24 with the clock ticking, a decision on his future with the Twins- and the fate of their multi-million dollar investment, has to be made without knowing for certain if he is deservedly in the long-term plans or not.

Question- Are these comments in bold more of an indictment of Stewart... or the Twins' developmental staff? His stock had fallen so low, his MLB promotion seemed like an afterthought at the time. Kiley McDaniel didn't even have him on his Twins top 30 prospect list published last May (deservedly so). Six years into his Twins tutelage, a #4 overall pick in 2013, probably the top athlete in that draft, as well, who admittedly never bought into the plan. This is a kid coming out of elite football- Where everything is planned out. It took until his 6th year in pro ball to "feel like [he] knew how to use the stuff that [he] had?" Really? Perhaps more goal-setting would help to motivate? Stewart's still a huge question mark, but hopefully, with all of the changes, better "plans" for Kohl and other top prospects are being implemented and adhered to. (Kohl made it sound like his first exposure to analytical technology and mechanical refinements didn't happen until 2018. Disturbing, if true. It would just seem like the guys that the Twins have made multi-million dollar up-front investments in would have a more comprehensive "plan" implemented from day one in order to ensure better [and faster] return on those investments.)

Maybe.... Because YOU challenged his economics acumen?

$3.5M is the going rate for an "opener"? Did Perez knowingly sign on to the Twins for such an ignominious role? His 1st time vs.2nd time stats don't even suggest he'd be successful as an opener. And the Twins don't have cheaper options in filling that role? Seems doubtful.

Spot on. Not many more talented sports writers than Reusse. He's a wonderful baseball writer, his love of the game comes through his prose. If Javier blossoms as it appears is happening, Reuse just got the jump on the rest of the local and national media. What a franchise-changing development if both Lewis and Javier realize their full potential as MLB rookies by 2020-1. But... on the other hand, in regards to Reusse's columns, not many more grating when he exhibits a clear negative agenda and preconceived bias against the subject of one of his articles. Case in point, a true story. I was involved in a 5th GRADE AAU weekend tournament basketball game, when, lo and behold, Patrick Reusse shows up. This of course is extremely unusual, as the attendance at such games usually exclusively consists of maybe only a couple dozen family members, if that. As it turned out, KARE 11's Randy Shaver was the coach of the other team and was generally well-known by his own admission at becoming rather animated during the course of a typical youth basketball game. Shaver, no fool, noticed Reusse in attendance on his "gotcha" mission and was on his best behavior and the game unfolded incident-free. Reusse's intentions- at showing up just for this particular AAU game- and not the dozens of others played by all age groups that weekend were obvious- needle Shaver. Reusse still actually ended up writing up the game for his Strib column (A 5th grade basketball game? Reallly?). He talked about how "crazy" Minnesota was becoming about spring and summer basketball (possibly to the detriment of youth baseball), but, though he got a couple shots in, he couldn't hide his disappointment through his words at being unable to more thoroughly needle Coach Shaver in the process.

Actually, Perez's numbers- career and in 2018- first time through the order are horrible in 2018 and statistically insignificant from his second time through the order for his career- the results are not exactly inspiring or suggestive of the Twins "finding value" via even semi-rigorous statistical analysis. Soooo.... I guess the cost of Really Mediocre "lefty openers" has finally been calculated at $3.5M by our resident geniuses? The only way the opener role comes close to making sense is if an opposing team's batting order has 4-5 of the first 6 hitting left handed.

I'm holding out some optimism that the braintrust has a list and is waiting for the rollback of certain FA's salary expectations and jumping in to the market during spring training. With maybe a trade of an excess OF or SS prospect or two for immediate help.

Bunk. Apples and oranges. The still-born "PLAN" conceptualization was the straw-grasping by the Twins- and the person or person who came up with it should have been held accountable. BPA, "fit", ceiling- and especially analytics- should be the guiding criterion in the draft

Save your fretting and angst for later. I'll wager that there will be bigger headscratching moves in the months to come. This is Thread Winner. Look for Duffey, Granite, et al, to be jettisoned (or de-rostered and re-signed) by opening day. They are placeholders for now. I'm fairly certain that there are still impactful moves in the works- via FA, Waiver Wire or even a trade.

Thread Runner-Up. That 2014 draft showed how much the front end was grasping at straws, desperately searching for some hidden prospect-rating inefficiencies. And we never found out who the genius was behind that highly flawed theory. For many of us Twins fans, it was the final straw in the Ryan Era.

Thread Honorable Mention. It's virtually certain that the bottom four-to-six guys on this 40-man will never perform above replacement level. (At least that number is coming down a bit from years past )

"Serious money." This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not). Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

Brevity Bravo!

I can think of more than one reason.... three reasons... in the case where the three veterans all go down via injury, suspension, traded away, inability to immediately bounce back (Pineda), etc... plus a couple more, in that, at least two youngsters are likely on a limited innings schedule. It's short-handed the Twins in the middle months before, forcing them to call upon some embarrassing options- in all-but-obvious pre-forfeiture games. Besides, how many different SPs have the Twins used in the last 2 seasons??? Probably around 25, right? Unpredictable things do happen. As much as I'm fully with you on getting these young arms their IPs, buying one (or two) veteran insurance policies on minor league deals is prudent, especially if the FO is making a legitimate run for a post-season berth.

So.... 6 "starters"??? Not enough 25-man roster space.

I dunno, take the bottom 6 names, a dart, a dartboard and a blindfold?

Bingo!

Berrios should be first. Not sure why it already isn't done. I'm guessing Gibson's agent is looking for Kyle's one big FA shot at the monster payday. AFAIK, Kyle hasn't exactly shown much public enthusiasm about willingness in sticking around. (Hope I'm wrong, but I can envision Falvine having already made the decision to place Gibson on the Eduardo-Escobar-First-To-Deal list if things go South early on in 2019).

Well done, Levi. My list would be very close to this. With the exception of me valuing higher the potential for the pitchers at the bottom of the list over some of the other names in the middle. For example, and especially speaking of trade value, the way people are publicly whispering/talking about Garver, it sounds like his career as a catcher is potentially over practically before it's begun- the apparently omni-present risk of Garver simply having limited potential asset value as just a bench bat should immediately move him to the 20-25 range, or lower. How many teams would be willing to sacrifice a roster spot and bring anything of value to the Twins in return if it's generally understood around the league that his catching days are severely in doubt? (I know I'm out on a lonely limb on this, but the numbers say Kohl Stewart actually showed enough of his Soft Contact%/GB%/IFFB%/GB-FB ratio [all better #s than Gibson] with his spinner stuff to make me put him near the #20 spot. Only Dallas Kuechel had a higher GB-FB ratio among all qualifying starters. The others ahead of Stewart have higher ceilings for sure, and it was only 36+ IP, but if/as/when the Twins transition to better gloves on the left side of the IF, his value- to the Twins- or a team with a stellar IF defense- as the ultimate P-2-C starter, could vault him into a potentially fairly reliable #4-5 SP).

Wow. Tough crowd.

Sustainability is in question.... Cave in 2018: BABIP .363 K%: 33% Steamer projects a huge regression for Cave (.702 OPS/.3 WAR), with Kepler maintaining his WAR (2.6). FWIW, Kepler's defense rated much higher than Cave's in 2018. Given the lopsided L/R hitting situation in the OF, it looks like the Twins might try Buxton becoming Cave's occasional part-time platoon partner, with Cave additionally spelling Kepler and Rosario on occasion. Didn't look up his minor league stats, but Cave was dreadful vs. LHP in 2018 (.598 OPS). It looks like the Yankees gave up on the idea of Tyler Austin playing significant innings in the OF after his 2015 AAA season. Right now, he looks like a man without a position, or even a roster spot. Unfortunate, if that's the way it works out, especially if Cron pulls another LoMo debacle.