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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Re-post from a previous thread... In my mind, we can't quite use it as the end-all-be-all just yet because it has a ways to go in a few areas -- - defensive metrics: it's crucial to include this in player value, but we just aren't incredibly accurate at putting values on this today (especially for C, 1B) - positional values: this is accounted for and a large factor, but we miss team specific situations, ie - when a player may not be at his best value position due to roster composition. - situational hitting/pitching: certain players are more skilled in this than others and we can't properly value the player capable of grounding to the right to score/advance a runner compared to those who swing away. So, as long as we keep a margin of error in mind and don't try to use it to proclaim that my guy with 3.6 WAR this year is better than your guy with 3.4 WAR... then let's get our WAR on.
  2. jay
    Kudos to you, sir, for backing up more of your posts lately.
  3. jay
    The conversation is about how a pitching staff performed relative to another. That would make xFIP perfectly relevant. Comparing the win-loss record of the 94-win Twins in 2010 to the 63-win Twins in 2011 would be silly. You'd be completely missing the fact that the Twins scored a full run more per game in 2010 (781 vs 619) while the xFIP for the pitching staff was actually only .4 runs per game worse (3.93 vs 4.33). You can make some generalized assumptions because obviously better pitching leads to more wins, but evaluating the performance of a staff on win-loss completely ignores every other aspect of the game -- offense, defense, the randomness of run support, etc. The impact is magnified if you look at individual pitchers. Cliff Lee was a 3.10, 200+ inning pitcher last year with 6 wins... but we still know he's an elite pitcher of which the Twins don't have.
  4. jay
    Since the last update, the Red Wings have played 10 games and Chris is 9 for 38 with a home run and 9 RBIs. His 6 HRs on the season are 2nd within the Twins system behind only some prospect named Miguel Sano and puts him in a tie for 2nd within the Int'l League. The .907 OPS that Chris is sporting leads the team (qualified batters w/ min 2.7 PA/g, ~65 PAs) by a significant margin.
  5. jay
    His .756 OPS was 16 out of 23 3Bers last year (at least 400 ABs). Considering he was .654 or less in 4 months of the season, it's impressive he did even that well. We need to know if he can settle in somewhere in between with the bat and maybe even show some progress with the glove. Let him play. All year.
  6. jay
    It would be awfully interesting to see some analysis on the effectiveness of FA contracts by tier, maybe even broken down between hitters and pitchers. We see a lot of contracts for the top tier guys that extend into years where they aren't expected to be nearly as productive. Can we assume contracts for the middle tier (or lower) are more efficient?
  7. jay
    I think there's plenty of ammunition around TD for "I told you so" on Correia already. Hopefully, we won't have any reason to. If we do, I'm also hopeful we won't hear chirps after a bad start or two or even three.
  8. jay
    We get one of these after each Correia start, so I'll just beat [insert random antagonist with 50 posts or less] to it. Yes... all Twins fans hope he pitches extremely well all year long and next year as well, even if it means that the vast majority of us were wrong. Please keep the expectations reasonable! The strib and Kevin himself after yesterday's start: Correia, now 3-1 with 2.33 ERA this season, said the breaking ball he struck out Beltre on wasn’t that good of a pitch. “I don’t know what people were expecting,” he said. “I’m only five starts in. I’m not going to be pitching on a high all year. I’m going to have some starts where it doesn’t work. But it is nice to get off to a nice start when I go to a new team.” To manage expectations, keep in mind that Correia is the first Twins pitcher to start a season with five quality starts (at least six innings, no more than three earned runs) in a row since Ramon Ortiz in 2007. Again, that’s Ramon. Ortiz.
  9. jay
    This is all very bizarre. And wonderful.
  10. jay
    This is true, but there are examples where it doesn't prevent contention. See: Zito, Barry and the 2010/2012 WS Champions. Granted, even that example proves you have to have inexpensive, dominant pitching... I'd be perfectly okay with moving Morneau or Willingham for another SP prospect with an eye on generating our window from beginning in '14 to wide open in '15-'17.
  11. jay
    Hard to fathom that he's still only 27. His season last year isn't too far off from what I'd hope for out of Buxton early on, with a little better BB%/OBP.
  12. jay
    BA has them 9-10, but this compilation shows they are ranked at an average more in the teens. Building a Farm: Top Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball It's a small difference in reality and even future expectations, but it's enough that I don't think we can say top 5 just yet. Solidly top 10 given the graduations and injuries already? Yes. They are the only "ETA 2015" prospects in the top 25 aside from Carlos Correa, so guys around them should be either graduating or failing. If they keep up the pace with great seasons, it'd be about impossible not to grant them both top 5 status next off-season.
  13. jay
    It seems like we've lost more dice rolls the last few years (injuries, SP failures, etc) than we've won. With the pipeline that's in place, we'll be a serious contender if a few of these prospects turn into boxcars (12's). We've seen teams like the Royals struggle to turn a well-regarded farm system into MLB wins, so let's just hope we have enough rolls of the dice and can make the transition...
  14. jay
    DFA Tim Wood. Please. From this article, you can already tell the Twins value his Matt Cappsian-bulldogishness.
  15. jay
    Very true. I wonder if this has something to do with being comfortable charging balls from all his time at SS. I'd also wonder if you could say that's why he isn't great at the hard-hit choppers yet. A lot more time to react from SS compared to 3B. The point about Sano being his defensively replacement is pretty null anyway. Plouffe D > Sano D, probably forever.
  16. jay
    KLaw has Appel and Gray at the top of his board and says this about Gray, "He's clearly the second-best player in the draft, but after these two guys, you could go in a lot of directions. There is no clear No. 3." Even if another player emerges to be a "#3" for the draft, there's a lot of options and players vying for top-10 status that the Twins can pick from. I hope the Twins use this to their advantage by employing the Astros' strategy from last year to find someone they can sign below slot and put that money to use further down in the draft.
  17. jay
    Chris was named the International League Player of the Week (April 4-14): Colabello named Batavia Downs POTW | Rochester Red Wings News Last night, April 18th, Chris rocked a two-run homer in the first inning and had an RBI later in the game to lead the Red Wings to a 5-4 win that broke their 7 game losing streak. Colabello's 5 home runs this season are tied for 3rd across all of AAA.
  18. jay
    Umm, no, Chris Colabello. If you're trying to draw comparisons, I can see some.
  19. jay
    You and I both, brother.
  20. jay
    a. He never would have plunked Quentin if the Twins had signed him. b. Are we really passing judgment on a 6 year deal in April of the first year?
  21. jay
    Thanks for the look back. It's interesting to see how many are DL'ed or 'Marquis-esque' so far. For sake of comparison, the guys we did get: Pelfrey - 3 starts, 2-1, 7.30 era (56 ERA+), 12.1 IP, 1.95 WHIP (5.17 xFIP) Correia - 3 starts, 1-1, 2.95 era (137 ERA+), 21.1 IP, 1.22 WHIP (4.22 xFIP)
  22. jay
    Other blogs and articles about Mr. Colabello: 'Happiest Man in Baseball' - Jon Morosi (Foxsports, 2013) 'Paid His Dues' - David Dorsey (FSN, 2013) 'Fairy Tale' - Cody Christy (ND Twins Fan, 2013) Perseverance - Paul Daley (Sentinel and Entreprise, local MA paper, 2013) 'IL to MLB' - Rhett Bollinger (mlb.com, 2013) 'Good Story, Good Player' - Tom Powers (Pioneer Press, 2012) '2011 IL Player of the Year' - JJ Cooper (Baseball America, 2011)
  23. jay
    A recent Q&A by TDer Christopher Fee with Mr. Colabello about Rochester, Indy ball, the WBC, and his goals. Colabello mentions maintaining an even approach and consistent mindframe several times. Twins Daily - Q&A with Chris Colabello
  24. jay
    Stats back to 2005. I'll make updates to 2013 occassionally. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 800, align: left] Year Age Team League Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB 2005 21 Worcester CAMA Ind 51 172 24 55 7 0 8 31 3 29 31 .320 .429 .500 .929 86 2006 22 Worcester CAMA Ind 90 344 52 105 26 2 7 58 4 30 64 .305 .364 .453 .817 156 2007 23 Nashua, Worcester CAMA Ind 91 331 64 100 29 1 13 62 6 45 46 .302 .396 .514 .910 170 2008 24 Worcester CAMA Ind 93 357 71 120 34 1 16 76 3 37 44 .336 .402 .571 .974 204 2009 25 Worcester CAMA Ind 84 321 48 97 22 0 9 55 3 34 46 .302 .373 .455 .828 146 2010 26 Worcester CAMA Ind 82 316 53 95 16 1 13 59 3 29 53 .301 .366 .481 .847 154 2011 27 Worcester CAMA Ind 92 365 75 127 32 0 20 79 1 39 39 .348 .410 .600 1.010 219 2012 28 New Britain EL AA 134 496 78 141 37 1 19 98 0 47 94 .284 .358 .478 .836 237 2013 29 Rochester IL AAA 67 255 43 94 21 0 18 61 1 31 61 .369 .437 .663 1.100 169 Totals [/TD] 784 2957 508 934 224 6 123 579 24 321 478 .316 .389 .520 .909 1539 Ind 583 2206 387 699 166 5 86 420 23 423 323 .317 .390 .514 .903 1133 AA AA 134 496 78 141 37 1 19 98 0 47 94 .284 .358 .478 .836 237 AAA [TD]AAA 67 255 43 94 21 0 18 61 1 31 61 .369 .437 .663 1.016 95 [/TABLE]
  25. jay
    That reads harsher than I intended. Not referring directly to you with that, cmathewson.
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