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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Good stuff, Seth. I see Buxton and Berrios with a little better odds than what you've mentioned here. The Twins haven't been afraid to aggressively promote top-end talent that performs. Buxton - CF is awfully thin (again). If Danny Santana is really a SS now, the odds of Hicks and Schafer being bad enough that they want to call up Buxton look pretty good. Also, if he'd be ready enough to come up in May 2015, I think there's a good chance he gets a September look. The 40th man on the 40 man roster in September isn't worth holding him back if he's ready and the options won't matter. I think Buxton is closer to 75%. Berrios - This kid is determined. He has dominated. He could get a call as early as mid-season. Present day, you've got Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Meyer and Milone clearly in front of him. Pelfrey, Stauffer and Darnell are some other potential rotation filler he could easily jump this year. Teams end up using a LOT of starters across a full season (12 last year, average of 10.6 since 2010). If he's dominating again, I see at least a September start or two as very possible with the same rationale on the 40th man. I think Berrios is closer to 60%.
  2. jay
    I see a few tiers here: 1 - Buxton, Sano 2 - Stewart, Berrios, Meyer, Gordon (maybe 2b) 3 - Polanco, May, Rosario, Burdi Really, I'd be fine with swapping guys around in those tiers and not take much issue with the ranking. The difference between trying to rank and project the 7th best prospect from the 8th best prospect is pure guesswork at best -- just look at previous lists. Multiply that by 50 for trying to distinctly differentiate between something like 23rd and 24th. I guess I like Sickels' method with using grades for that reason.
  3. jay
    What for? According to TR, Hunter could handle a few games there if needed. *ducks*
  4. jay
    Keep him in AAA until he demostrates success there and the determination to be a pro.
  5. jay
    The more I think about it, the more I think Milone will end up with the fifth spot if he has a decent spring. That would put Pelfrey and Meyer in the 'pen with May starting at AAA as the "first guy up". I'm trying to convince myself I'm okay with that...
  6. jay
    Right or wrong, Terry Ryan seems to agree with the views being shared here that a "#1" isn't essential. http://www.tout.com/m/bbsvcd
  7. jay
    Second paragraph, spot on and I won't both trying to cite any reason. First paragraph, partially true but I do see them as different. Are the Twins less aggressive with promotions than a team like the Mets? Yes, that's reasonable to conclude... but I wouldn't use that study to make the other statement. In either fashion, the study doesn't prove either approach to be advantageous.
  8. jay
    Not all teams lost 90+ games for the last 4 years with league-worst rotations. I can agree with the more reasonable "less aggressive" than "a definitive pattern of delaying our young players longer than any other team". I guess I don't see handfuls of prospects that have been held back. The "less aggressive" piece has maybe meant a few months for a few guys, but I don't quite buy it to be as big of an issue as it's made out to be. Either way, here's to seeing May pitch for the Twins in April (and May, and beyond).
  9. jay
    "Defend" is too broad for my intent. "Context" would seem more my intent. You also name Gibson, Meyer and May like their 2015 versions are the same as their 2013 versions, which isn't true. A BP study from several years ago to declare "demonstrably" is a stretch. I've seen that study before and it misses the context of viable prospects to promote. The win-loss results from 2011-2014 are a demonstrable example that the Twins didn't have prospects or talent worth promoting rapidly in that timeframe. If the AAAA guys is a repeatedly self-inflicted wound from which you want to see different behavior, isn't that what the Twins are doing here? Adding better talent so we aren't relying on AAAA guys as soon as there's a need? Meyer, May, Pelfrey and Milone are all better names to look at than the list you provided. I think their doing exactly what you're asking for and it's still in how you're looking at it. If Pelfrey goes north in the rotation over a healthy May... yeah, we'll both be pissed.
  10. jay
    I'm avoiding the rest of this thread, but have to point out that is a poor and lazy utilization of WAR. Edit: LaRoche appears to be taking over Dunn's spot as primary DH / occasional 1B. Simply comparing their offense would be more appropriate. Last 3 seasons, average wRC+: Dunn = 111 LaRoche = 118
  11. jay
    The difference between Meyer and the guys you've cited is blatantly clear when you look at their MiLB track records. While Meyer's stuff is electric and he has potential, we need to get past this falsehood of what other young aces have done. Meyer quite simply hasn't done that. I agree with your concepts around development. I don't agree with making conclusions that Meyer is doomed to the minors and May won't get starts either. Those are some HUGE jumps requiring some big assumptions around ALL the veteran starters.
  12. jay
    One spot out of spring training. A few posts back, we were talking about the backup QB -- i.e. the guy who doesn't win the job out of spring training... And he'll have FIVE "QBs" he can replace, not just one like a football team. Not making the rotation out of spring training isn't nearly as dire as being a backup QB. If you're the #6 guy, you ARE going to start at some point that season. We've seen the Twins change up the rotation every year recently for injury or poor performance. Also, in those years, I think the Twins had AAAA guys they wanted to look at and the argument of a prospect being ready to pitch wasn't as strong. I think the evidence is lopsided only because of the way you're looking at it.
  13. jay
    Aside from Nolasco, 100%. Milone has an option and Pelfrey can come out of the pen (or get waived).
  14. jay
    I'm not seeing what's wrong with that. Are you saying they should both be guaranteed a spot in the rotation out of spring training no matter what?
  15. jay
    I'm a prospect guy. They excite me. However, I don't quite understand what the issue is here. It's impossible to say the Twins have blocked out opportunity for their top pitching prospects. There's still a rotation spot available for whoever shows they should have it. There's still the inevitability of injury or poor performance. What's the issue here? May and Meyer should both be guaranteed a rotation spot this spring no matter what? Really?
  16. jay
    Since this has more to do with the White Sox and little to do with the Twins, could a moderator move this to the MLB Baseball forum?
  17. jay
    Except there isn't just one spot they are waiting for like the backup QB. There are FIVE. Not making the rotation out of ST is hardly a big deal. I'm willing to make a significant wager that the Twins don't use just 5 SPs this coming year.
  18. jay
    Is that supposed to sound like a bad thing? Because it doesn't to me, at all...
  19. jay
    I wish the Twins would just be like the White Sox. Or was it the Cardinals? Le sigh...
  20. jay
    I'm still really hoping to be enlightened on a better projection system or model that is readily available. That is, unless the message is simply forecasting is stupidly inaccurate and shouldn't be done at all.
  21. jay
    Great. What do you propose instead to project 2015?
  22. jay
    I was hoping this would turn out a lot better than it did, but... Steamer projections for 2015: GS IP R ER Hughes 30 192 89 83 Gibson 28 163 90 82 Santana 32 189 90 86 Nolasco 30 182 99 92 *May/Meyer/Pelfrey/Milone 42 250 135 125 Rotation Total 162 976 503 478 **Bullpen 459 205 190 Total 162 1435 708 668 *approximation **fills remainder of 2014 team IP and same 2014 bullpen ERA 2014's team runs allowed? 730.
  23. jay
    $104M range for 2015 w/ Santana. Subtract $18M free agents after 2015 (Hunter, Pelfrey, Duensing). Add $10M for arb raises (probably closer to $15M with our current roster, so assuming a few non-tenders). 2016 payroll around $95M with the need to fill the free agent departures and non-tenders if the farm doesn't produce. Really not a terrible position...
  24. jay
    My only qualm about a deal with Santana is around my earlier point about opportunity cost. This deal brings the 2015 payroll into the range of $105M. I think that's quite a bit higher than basically any of us were expecting. That's great and all, but it would appear that adding other long-term commitments doesn't look likely with something like $95M committed for 2016 as well. That probably leaves room to fill one hole next year where ever that might be, but it's hard to see tacking on a $20M+ ace. Congrats to the Twins and Terry Ryan for aggressively seeking to improve what has been a dreadful rotation.
  25. jay
    Definitely. My issue with directly comparing the results is that it makes the assumption that their capacity is apples-to-apples, when it's not. The White Sox payroll has outpaced the Twins every single year since 1998 with the single exception of 2003 -- often by a significant margin. We wouldn't try to compare the merits of the Twins approach to Yankees approach based on their results due to their significant financial disparities. It's less extreme with the White Sox, but that same concept is very relevant. For the additional resources the White Sox have expended, you'd expect to see a greater and noticeable separation in their results.
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