Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jay

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,544

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Yeah, the Twins have had dice rolls at starting pitcher for the last few years. If the rolls came out just right, we'd have a great staff. That hasn't happened. In 2011, they all went snake eyes. 2012 wasn't much better outside of Diamond. 2013 has seen Deduno be the only high roll (so far). We could very well walk into 2014 with the same situation as the last 3 years, but it's a bit ridiculous to think we'll solve all 5 spots internally by next spring to the point where there isn't room for a decent, proven MLB starter in free agency. As has been illustrated, the choices aren't overwhelmingly impressive, but certainly better than what we're throwing out there today.
  2. jay
    Hard to ignore that possibility, but you could probably say 8 1/3 shutout in your debut would be the apex for about 80% of the guys that ever make an MLB start.
  3. jay
    For all the fussing about Gibson's inning count prior to his call up, I'm surprised we don't see anything here. He's already seen a jump in IP this year, so 120-130 pitch outings probably aren't a great idea at this point. 2010 - 57.2 IP (reliever) 2011 - 95.2 IP 2012 - 103 IP 2013 - 132.1 IP prior to last night
  4. jay
    I agree with all of that except I'd keep Jimenez in that targeted group. He's likely to be the most expensive of that group (or Nolasco), but we can dream. Hughes probably tops my list as both possible and reasonable.
  5. jay
    Those are fair points and you're absolutely correct that the track record doesn't encourage thinking much of an outlay will occur. I guess I retain hope that it'll happen while maybe some others don't with the current FO. I'd love to see someone like Burnett, Feldman, Floyd, Haren, Hughes, Jimenez, Johnson, Lewis, Lincecum, Nolasco, (E) Santana, Vargas, or maybe even a few others come on board. I could likely rule a few of them out right now for various reasons, but there does seem to be a decent number of options in the that tier of respectable MLBers.
  6. jay
    I'd be happy with signing JJ. I think folks focus on his ties more so due to the first quote here -- that Ryan couldn't give money away. Sure, a ridiculous offer might do it, but then you're the Royals signing Gil Meche to a 5/$55 deal. The ties may be an edge to get him to consider coming here. I think a key point the payroll hawks miss on is that free agents are just that, free. Most of them don't want to come to a loser. The overwhelming focus on free agent SPs last offseason ignores that Greinke maybe would have come here (but Dodgers weren't going to be outbid), Sanchez wouldn't have (resigned with Tigers to win despite plenty of interest elsewhere), Lohse and Liriano weren't likely, Kuroda and Pettitte definitely weren't, and who knows about others. Best case, there were about 8 guys out there who were an upgrade over even Correia (Jackson, Dempster, Guthrie, McCarthy, Blanton, Haren, Saunders, Feldman). Dempster and Haren both went for winners. Guthrie resigned. Saunders turned down more money from the Twins to sign in Seattle. It's not hard to whittle the list down pretty far. I wanted the Twins to get better pitching and the rumors say they were in on some of them, but we don't know each player's whims. I understand the (thoroughly voiced) frustration that the Twins didn't spend more money and while I certainly don't look to defend that, it's also not hard to put perspective on it and see scenarios where it just wasn't even likely for them to get a decent FA without a massive overspend.
  7. jay
    I think we've established the arguments on payroll. What do you guys think about the list of free agents in the OP? Who would be good targets?
  8. jay
    It's about as objective as anything can get. Understanding the measurements it takes and relating it to a strike zone becomes objective as well with sample size. A certain pitcher (or catcher) isn't going to face an overwhelming influence of midgets at the plate more than any other pitcher over time. Given that the measurements from PitchFX are accurate, it's how we construe them that can lead to interpretation issues. However, this is a pretty clear example of a new tool that is supporting the scouting view -- Doumit is a terrible receiver. Trying to quantify the effects of that (metrics on framing) is different than demonstrating existance.
  9. jay
    I would be more than glad to see the Twins face a decision between multiple MLB-caliber players at one position. We could use a few more good problems.
  10. jay
    Thanks for sharing, Chris. Agree with your insights. I hate the slideshow game at B|R though.
  11. jay
    Yeah, he's not exactly good at anything. He does have a pretty sweet red beard though.
  12. jay
    I think the Twins and Twins fans would be thrilled if Dozier could sustain performance of anything resembling Dustin Pedroia (lite, medium, or heavy). I'd add high OBP to the list of crucial ingredients to do so.
  13. jay
    And that's fair. I don't exactly trust some of the attempts to quantify pitch framing so far. The numbers may be true, but the cause is not isolated at all. I think that same effect holds true for a few of the other metrics out there. That said, plenty of advanced metrics hold all sorts of water. Framing holds some, but the debate is how much. I think my fear matches jorgenswest that the Twins are not finding ways to use this data contextually and thereby give other teams an advantage with additional evaluation methods.
  14. jay
    Not trying to make this a personal attack at all, but I'm curious. You seem to have a good understanding of most advanced metrics, yet seem to argue against using them. I can agree that a common fallacy is jumping to conclusions, but this doesn't seem to jive. Are there any advanced metrics that you support or a context where they should be used?
  15. jay
    The Twins staff is at 44.7% GB while the Red Sox are at 43.9%. Based on that minor difference alone, we could estimate Dozier would have 2% more plays on a per inning rate (realistically there's more at play here, but I digress). Pedroia is seeing .501 plays per inning (Assists+Putouts/IP), so Dozier should be just barely above that at .511. Dozier's plays per inning? .633 Safe to say the metrics on range (RZR and rPM, the range component of DRS) like Dozier this year.
  16. jay
    I can't tell if there's snark in that or not. While I can't claim to have personally measured the exact error rate of PitchFX, I trust it as much as any other electronic measurement system. The technology is there and works in other industries, so... While I think some of your examples would cancel out in sample size, there's no question other factors are at play. The biggest error one could make is jumping to the conclusion that these numbers definitely mean or are even trying to say "Joe Mauer is the worst". Heck, I'd wager that Sam Deduno alone is enough to make a catcher look bad at framing. While pitcher skill would seem to be a big factor and there looks to be a general correlation, you can find some big differences between the chart above and MLB team ERA ranks -- Colorado, Miami, Houston. With all these factors at play, one can just hope that a day comes when we can accurately assign values to how each impact each other. While it's not with a great deal of accuracy, I do think we can look at trends over time and come to some conclusions on catcher framing skills.
  17. jay
    PitchFX is accurate to tenths of an inch. There's very clearly differences between catchers across the data points of all the pitches they catch. Umpire variation would matter if you're comparing a small number of games, but becomes irrelevant when you're looking at a large sample. The subject isn't perfectly understood or measureable yet, but I'd be curious to hear your ideas on what causes the differences between catchers if it isn't framing.
  18. jay
    Madison Boer then walked one and struck out four in 1.2 innings. So, he faced 6 guys and only one of them put the ball in play. Me like. Let's run with this reliever thing on him.
  19. jay
    Paging Terry, Terry Ryan and Jamey, Jamey Carroll. Please make a phone call on line 1. From MLBTR: The Braves still want to add another infielder and a left-handed bat to their bench, and GM Frank Wren told Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that there's a good chance of an August trade for Atlanta to address those needs.
  20. jay
    Initial call up doesn't quite fit Arrieta, but I do agree with the strategy. Post-hype kids win me a fantasy baseball league just about every year.
  21. jay
    I'm not sure what other directions were realistic, so this seems like playing both sides of the fence. -- I want you to take more risks, but those risks better work out. -- I agree on the passiveness and the cause for concern, but let's at least pick one side to play.
  22. jay
    The first mistake here is assuming the dealer gets nothing from keeping that car on the lot. In reality, the dealer gets to keep driving that car every day and he likes the ride. Telling the dealer that you'll trade him your 1987 Geo and that's great because it might turn in to a collector's item (the odds of a low level prospect making even a marginal MLB impact) really doesn't help much. If your only option as the dealer is to give away the cars on your lot for minimal return, you'd probably rather just take nothing. Otherwise, everyone else will see that you sell your cars for cheap and expect the same deal. If I know that dealer sold you a car for eight dollars, why would I ever let him think I'd pay the true value of $10 grand in the future? Bottom line... I absolutely wanted TR to make more moves than he did, but I can see and understand a case for not. A trade to make a trade doesn't always help you in the long run, even if that prospect you got has some exceptionally small margin above zero opportunity to be a successful major leaguer.
  23. jay
    Well played, Seth. "#5 – Drew Butera – 17.4% – This one may come as a surprise to many, but Drew Butera has value in the industry. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to fetch a top prospect. It likely would be a prospect few of us have even heard of. However, teams love having a great defensive catcher as their backup. Drew Butera is elite, and there may be a team out there willing to part with a little something to have him as their #2 or #3 catcher." I wouldn't be surprised in the least if that #1 guy on the list (Carroll) goes in August.
  24. jay
    Stark reporting that the Dodgers acquired Drew FREAKIN Butera! This alone should be enough to make many a folk here rejoice upon rejoicing.
  25. jay
    This is very true. Given that Thatcher has faced Arizona 7 times this year alone, I'm assuming ol crazy Kevin has a good idea of how he views him. The results would lead me to think he'd probably favor Thatcher. 2013 vs ARI - 7 appearances, 5 IP, 3 hits allowed, 0 BB, 4 Ks, .188 BAA., .219 OPS against.
×
×
  • Create New...