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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I'd throw in a dash of ego. I've always assumed it doesn't happen much because player X says 'I'm looking for Y dollars'. Some GM says he can make that happen, but only by backloading (and inflating) the dollars.
  2. jay
    There are certainly plenty of logical reasons to front-load a contract from both the team and player perspective. I think this is why it gets thrown out so frequently, despite only happening in such rare occurances. Kind of like talking about moving to get out of this ridiculous cold... great idea and logical in many ways, but we just don't end up doing it.
  3. jay
    I am by no means the forum expert on proper form (nor much of anything else, really). It just seemed like a newer phenomenon here that I've seen used poorly elsewhere. You're absolutely right that there's a balance to strike between quoting a whole thousand-word post and zeroing in on what you're responding to.
  4. jay
    I hope this site doesn't turn into consistently breaking someone else's post into selected snippets with a counter point for every single one. It is so extremely contextually dangerous.
  5. jay
    Your last point is most certainly an opinion. One of which I would disagree with. Drew's contract wouldn't prevent the Twins from making any moves, but it is highly likely that $10M could be better used in 2016. I'd welcome a two-year deal if Drew would take it. A third year or more would make me wince. Between the other 3 threads, I think the Drew topic has topped 500 posts. Is that a new record?
  6. jay
    Good question. If Florimon further proves that he needs to be replaced after 2014, the Twins have an additional year to identify/develop talent in-house or acquire someone via trade. If that doesn't work out, you have what is currently the best FA SS class in probably ever. Signing a SS next offseason, if necessary, reduces the huge risk of decline that we face in getting Drew now.
  7. jay
    I hope so too, but every bit of history tells us at least some piece(s) of that won't pan out. I'd prefer the flexibility to supplement the roster with a free agent then (when we know exactly where it is needed) as opposed to being locked in to 2016's Drew today.
  8. jay
    The biggest risk with Drew is his performance and salary at the end of the deal. If you look at 2016 payroll with Drew on a 3-year deal, you're talking almost $60M locked up in Mauer, Drew, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins. You need to re-sign or replace Willingham, Correia, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Burton, and Duensing in the meantime. You also need to pay arbitration salaries to almost everyone else that is on the roster today if they're still around. I haven't seen much confidence in how Drew is going to be performing come 2016. I don't want to be straddled to that situation outlined above where we're stuck with a marginal shortstop and increasing payroll demands right when we'd hope to be smack in the middle of a highly competitive window.
  9. jay
    No, you not only lose the pick, you lose the draft dollars assigned to those picks as well. Teams can go up to 5% over their total draft dollar allotment while only paying a penalty for going over. Losing those picks would lower the Twins overall allotment, thus further decreasing their ability to go "over-slot" on other picks.
  10. jay
    There has been some excellent research done on the surplus value of draft picks. The second round pick we'd have to give up is worth somewhere around an average of $3-5M in surplus value. Maybe you go with the higher end of that if the deep draft bit holds up. Comparatively, a team with an unprotected mid-1st round pick has to sacrifice average surplus value of $8-15M. That's an advantage for the Twins.
  11. jay
    Definitely some truth to that. Models won't really predict outliers. Predicted win range is 71-89 while we saw 51-97 in real life just last year. Basically, the model is saying it's really hard to only win 51 games...
  12. jay
    Spot on. A point system assigned by reverse order doesn't really tell you much, especially considering a number of Twins prospects just missed this list compared to others. You certainly wouldn't be able to get elite prospects in trades using those values. The top 4 systems in my mind are the Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Twins. You could argue the Red Sox belong in that top tier as well.
  13. jay
    If the Twins sign either Drew or Morales, then it makes even more sense at that point to get the other guy as well. The 3rd rd pick argument holds even less weight than the 2nd rd pick. They'd both be improvements over what we have, but these deals would need to be at figures lower than previously expected to really make sense for the Twins right now IMO. Drew for no more than 3 years and Morales for no more than 2 with both at sub-$10M AAVs.
  14. jay
    I agree with your conclusion that we need to improve the offense, but I don't think you can just look at runs scored last year to determine that. The Twins were 25th in runs scored last year, but 21st in both wRC+ and wOBA. Factor in significant injury time to the guys that were supposed to be the two biggest producers as well -- Mauer and Willingham. Projection models have the current 2014 version of the offense improving across the board in AVG, OBP, SLG, etc compared to last year. For example, FG projects 663 runs for 19th in runs scored (although 14th in the AL). Even if we go off that, we still need to find another 100 runs or so to fit with the contenders you highlighted. Yikes.
  15. jay
    As you noted, all are fellow 'defense-first' SS. Assuming Florimon gets the job this year, I think we can clearly see that he has to improve with the bat this year or he'll go the way of Kozma. Even big-money Starlin Castro is being eyed for replacement despite his previous success after putting up offensive numbers just slightly better than Florimon last year. Those calling for Drew *now* aren't off base in seeing the need for an improvement.
  16. jay
    Good read -- thanks, Seth! If he starts in the FSL this year, he'll enter that league 16 days younger than Miguel Sano (who was the youngest in that league on Opening Day last year). Even if he doesn't move to Ft Myers until a little later in the year, he'll still be one of the youngest players in the league. I hope he can live up to the challenge!
  17. jay
    I'm also relieved to see the response to this so far -- rational and comprehensive of context. I was afraid it'd be more of the smash fest we see going on in other threads. Maybe those folks just aren't here yet though...
  18. jay
    If I could pick, I'd take the Garza deal by a hair. It'll be interesting to see which ends up being a better value in the end, but I'm not sure it really matters given the timing situation that others have pointed out. Same offseason, different situation.
  19. jay
    Article from about 2 years back on trying to bunt vs the shift: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/beating-the-defensive-shift/ Depends on the hitter's expected output, but a required success rate of roughly 45% sounds about right. You'd think most guys could successfully do that with a little effort behind it.
  20. jay
    This may be true, but I'm not sold yet that he can't be a little more. 2014 is probably his last chance to prove it. Worst case though, I could live with a Plouffe/Parmelee platoon in RF where Plouffe backs up 3B and Parmelee backs up 1B. Their career splits are 130/104 wRC+ respectively for roughly 115 combined vs 105 league average. Hopefully Molitor can convince Gardy that this new-fangled platoon thing isn't so bad.
  21. jay
    Yeah, that may be true. Either way, non-tendering him doesn't make sense. If that "value" does end up appearing at some point, I'd hope the Twins take it.
  22. jay
    That's kind of what I was getting at. Trade him for something of value and equivalently replace him for less $... seems quite plausible. Mid-season might be the better time for a trade involving Duensing though.
  23. jay
    I don't think they should non-tender him, but are you confident the Twins could find a generally effective reliever that costs less than $2M? I am, but maybe that money doesn't really matter at this point.
  24. jay
    No, I said 22 originally with upside as high as 26-27 if you want to get rosy. I referenced the difference between Steamer and Oliver saying the 20 that Oliver predicts feels closer to what I think will happen than 17. I'm still at 22...
  25. jay
    First, thanks. As I tried to illustrate, I really don't think 20-22 WAR is anywhere near all rosy and statistically defiant. However, even at that number, the offense is average at best and still needs help. Unfortunately, I think it's more likely to come from within or via trade. The 2014 projections show some big changes compared to 2013's totals... very commonly not due to big FA signings. I think we're seeing some regression in both directions in the following numbers, but it doesn't really fit your argument that everyone is better except the Twins and Astros. The projections do mostly ignore the biggest wildcard of all -- injuries. 2014 WAR Projection for Batters (FG) subtracted by 2013 WAR Actuals for Batters -- AL Upgrades: Angels (+4), Royals (+3), Indians (+5), Rangers (+1), Blue Jays (+8), Yankees (+8), Twins (+8), Mariners (+16!), White Sox (+9), Astros (+17!) AL Downgrades: Red Sox (-10), Rays (-2), A's (-1), Orioles (-5), Tigers (-3) Drew, Morales, and Cruz are really the last 3 FAs that could change a team's numbers much at all. For the Twins, Cruz and Morales would be something like overpriced, 1-win upgrades -- no thanks. Drew is projected as the exact same level of an upgrade. You have to get in to "hope and defiance" territory to see him as more.
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