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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Definitely the root of the problem related to the recent struggles. I'm not so sure it can't happen for pitchers -- the Rangers are an example of being aggressive there. There's only a couple candidates this year, but more to come over the next few years -- Arcia, Sano, Meyer, May, Buxton, and maybe others. There's a big opportunity here for the Twins to aggressively move salary from future arb years for these guys (let's say '17-'21) into earlier years that have plenty of payroll flexibility ('15-'17). Instead of seeing their salaries appreciate significantly right as the team is hopefully contending, the Twins can level some of that out with a more static salary structure. There's risk to that, but it could leave the team in an even better position to add that "one missing piece".
  2. jay
    Hard to see how spending another $30M the last couple of years would have made this team competitive... I don't see anyone who fits that description, so I think you are saying they should not go sign any big contracts this offseason?
  3. jay
    Sure, but to what effect? I think you'd expect that given the differences in their roles.
  4. jay
    Well, there's that whole trend of signing guys within their first year or two of service time...
  5. jay
    This. I would hope that the payroll flexibility allows the Twins to be aggressive with resigning their young players that are viewed as pieces relevant for the next contending team. Overall payroll number is likely to go down when you look at the circumstances, like it or not.
  6. jay
    I much prefer this type of talk to sugarcoating or hopes and prayers. We saw some of this from Antony earlier this year as well. It's refreshing and feels more accountable. While we haven't seen wholesale mid-season changes as a result, I don't think it's realistic to think we would. It's not like this team has significantly underperformed expectations. It's not like the front office hasn't made some good signings (with some bad) and rebuilt the farm system. However, you don't keep saying 'hey, we suck' and not do anything about it at an organizational level over a reasonable amount time (think a year, not today). This type of talk makes me think something is coming, I'm just not sure what or when.
  7. jay
    Sickels is well known for giving higher rankings to prospects closer to the majors, so the Stewart ranking isn't too surprising.
  8. jay
    I'd need to be even more blown away than that to trade Dozier. All the chatter to trade him just doesn't make any sense at all. He's pretty darn close to establishing himself as a top 10 2B, if he hasn't already. He just turned 27 and is cost controlled through 2018 at which time he'll be 31. Those are exactly the kind of guys the Twins need if they hope to contend. Prospects are great, but trading him away just opens up another hole that would need to be filled with a competent, performing MLBer... and those aren't easy to come by. The only way you trade him is if you don't think this team has a chance to contend until 2019. I'd hope we're closer than that...
  9. jay
    Great stuff. I really love this type of data-driven analysis. Really shows that the rankings, while fun, don't provide that much value. It's the results that we all care about in the end. Along those lines, it would be amazing to do an ROI-like study with $/WAR across multiple years of int'l signings to look at how each team has performed and how tiers of signing bonuses compare to each other -- somewhat like the recent blog I put up on free agent SPs.
  10. jay
    This is the best Twins Daily thread I've ever read. Thank you, Jack. In case you happen to come back... For food, get the rib tips from Butcher and the Boar out on the RF plaza. Best thing I've ever had in any MLB ballpark. For a question or two... How much does your research team interact with counterparts from other MLB teams and are your methods/approaches tightly guarded or do you discuss on some level? As you create new data analysis or reports or best practices, does the Baseball Operations team come to you and say "hey, we want to see (this)" or does your team go to them and say "hey, we have this info" or a combination of both?
  11. jay
    mike, which tier begins to qualify as "good to great"? Tier 5? 6?
  12. jay
    The incredibly wide range of current performance (both good and bad) from our four free agent starting pitchers got me thinking: what can we realistically expect from free agent pitchers? Feel free to take a read and comment if you'd like: http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/5459-Expectations-for-Free-Agent-Starting-Pitchers
  13. jay
    Thanks. I'd have to agree with every bit of both your comments. If anything, the data here shows how rarely you can rely on these guys over the length of the contract. To see such a wide range in current results from our four free agents really shouldn't be all that surprising. I've made a few edits: changed the table to show seasons of the contract instead of date signed, corrected Lackey's contract info and updated the conclusion. I'm happy to upload the data to a public Google doc if anyone wants it.
  14. jay
    I don't know anyone who exclusively advocates it, but when 4/5's of your rotation going into the season were signed as free agents in the last 2 seasons... it starts getting hard to not call that building through FA.
  15. jay
  16. jay
    That money part is an incredibly big difference though. I do agree that both are crapshoots, if that's what you were saying. Free agency is just a much, much more expensive crapshoot for ALL teams...
  17. jay
    This perfectly exemplifies how difficult it is to BUILD from free agency. For whatever reason you prescribe to, the Twins had/have a shortage of MLB starting pitcher talent. When looking to build 4/5's of a rotation from free agency over two offseasons, it's inevitable that some of those guys are going to miss. It's unfortunate that Nolasco has been that so far, but I'm almost certain that: a) It's too early to judge his 4 year contract. It is both easy and fair to expect more than one of the FA SP acquisitions to flop regardless of being the best or worst front office.
  18. jay
    Mike, I think the 'no sliders' thing is a myth at this point. From SD Buhr's interview with Kohl a few weeks ago: Finally, there has been some concern among a segment of the fan base with regard to Stewart's modest strikeout rate this summer. He was asked how important strikeouts are to him. “I don't know how important they are but it's a number that everybody's going to look at. That's the thing that me and Ivan are working on right now actually, because I've had a lot of guys where I want them. It's just about making that one pitch. “I think I have those pitches that I need that get guys to strike out with. It's about throwing the slider in the right spot. It's not just about throwing the slider as hard as I can and getting guys out with it."
  19. jay
    Great comment. Several others have echoed this as well. I think it's fair to say that Terry and team have been successful in the past targeting those A-level players, who certainly aren't sure things. Thanks for doing the research. Remaining salary and expected production would seem to be two big factors. Hammer should have about $2.5M left at the deadline. In comparison to the deals noted (especially the 3 closest comparisons below), I think one can reach the conclusion that the return for Hammer should be higher than these were. Soriano -- full year remaining on a bad contract (CHC had to send significant $ in the deal), older, similar power and defense, worse OBP. Carlos Lee -- much larger $ for the rest of the season ($9M), similar (maybe worse) defensive value, worse OBP, better power in prime of career but had declined significantly as of 2012 and went on to retire after the season. Thome -- 41 years old and struggled in pinch-hitting duty with Phillies prior to trade, a bit less $, limited to DH duty only with fairly similar stats at that point in his career, retired after the season. If I'm picking the highest value between any of those 3 at the time of the trade vs 2014 Hammer, I'm taking 2014 Hammer.
  20. jay
    Great in theory, but this is one of those fan ideas that just doesn't play out in reality. Your argument here is the same one that can be made for an extension. Neither price would ever be out of the Twins' price range. If the Twins do want to keep him around, there's value in knowing you have your guy opposed to hoping for the best during free agency. If his contract demands are too high right now, then play it out the rest of the year. Trading him and re-signing him seems like the far and away least likely scenario. Please note that I'm not actually saying the Twins should extend him, only that I can see why they would if they don't think Pinto is the answer. Personally, I'd rather see Pinto.
  21. jay
    Yes, this. Barring a silly offer, trading Suzuki leaves the Twins too thin at C. I'd be fine with extending him for a year with a team option for '16. If he doesn't want that deal now and he keeps up his performance the rest of the year, 2 years might be what it takes at that time. Willingham, on the other hand, should be moved. He's done well since coming off the DL and a few contenders need a corner OF. Let Parmelee and Arcia play the corners for the rest of the year. The Reds are mentioned as a potential fit for Hammer... what's a reasonable return? Someone like Michael Lorenzen? The Twins love those former college closers turned starters...
  22. jay
    I can understand why this is happening given the circumstances, but can anyone recall the Twins calling a player up to debut in the bigs from single A? I can't...
  23. jay
    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post?id=9629 On a list of 21 names, 3 Twins made it: Josh Willingham | LF | Minnesota Twins Another outfielder who makes sense in Cincinnati, and the Reds even have a perfect late-inning defensive replacement in Chris Heisey. Willingham would really lengthen their lineup and give them a much-needed right-handed bat. Chance of being traded: 50 percent Possible fits: Reds, Royals, Red Sox, Orioles Kendrys Morales | DH | Minnesota Twins The Twins believed they were contenders when they signed Morales a few weeks ago, but by the end of July, they might realize they’re still a year or two away, and trading Morales for a midlevel prospect could be the most prudent move. A reunion with the Mariners would make sense if Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero don't start hitting. Chance of being traded: 25 percent Possible fits: Mariners, Rangers Kurt Suzuki | C | Minnesota Twins He has had a solid year on offense and defense and will be the first name brought up if any contender loses a catcher to injury. Chance of being traded: 25 percent Possible fits: Depends on injuries Any other potential fits stand out for these guys? How close is he on the 'chance of being traded'? Fun to note that former-Twin Mikey "Baseball" Cuddyer is also listed as a prime target for the Reds if he can get healthy.
  24. jay
    This would certainly open up the rarely-seen option to take advantage of matchups by moving him to the outfield for a batter or two and then back to the mound... ... of course, only if it doesn't compromise the DH or 3rd catcher at any point in the game. Sigh.
  25. jay
    More on this in Bollinger's Sunday notebook: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140622&content_id=81053080&notebook_id=81054760&vkey=notebook_min&c_id=min I don't get it... and his chances of ever becoming a solid regular seem to get slimmer by the day. What do we realistically hope for here? Right-hand semi-platoon option for Arcia and maybe Parmelee or any LH hitter in the OF? He simply hasn't shown much hope of being playable against RH pitchers outside of that one year in AA that feels increasingly distant.
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