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Jim H

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Everything posted by Jim H

  1. Jim H
    I doubt if the first 2 weeks of ST "results" mean that much. To this point, bullpens, live batting practice, and drills probably mean as much as game results. I would guess that 8 or more of the pitchers in camp have a shot at the last three bullpen positions. Swarzak is probably pretty safe, unless he falls off a cliff performance-wise. Spring games performance should start to count for more from now on. Since the bullpen candidates (whoever they really are) may get 6 or more appearances from on, this is about the time to really pay attention. I expect the non-candidates to be cut or sent to minor league camp within a week. I expect Butera to win the 3rd catcher spot, if there is a 3rd catcher. I think if there is a competitor with Nishioka for the backup middle infielder, (Chang, Florimon, or Holiman) we should be able to tell by the end of next week. Plouffe and Hughes seem to be the leaders for backup spots but they probably better start swinging better bats pretty soon. I also think that if Baker can't begin the year in the starting rotation, Swarzak could get stretched out. I like Henriks but he might benefit from AAA starts.
  2. Jim H
    I don't know whether the Twins will keep Doyle or not. Just remember Santana wasn't ready either when he was kept as a Rule 5 pick. I believe his ERA was around 5 that first year and he was generally used as a mop up guy. The difference was the Twins weren't good that year, and had little expectations. I expect the evaluation process is a bit different on a Rule 5 guy. It is also possible the Twins don't care that he has been bad in a couple of outings. It might make it is easier to get him through waivers, and make a deal with the White Sox. That's assuming the Twins want to keep him.
  3. Jim H
    Low Homer totals: some is the park, some was the personnel, some was health. I wouldn't be in a big hurry to change dimensons of Target Field either. The Metrodome was called the Homerdome in the late 80's because of Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti and Brunansky. Later it was considered a nuetral park at best. To some degree you build your organization to your park. Right now the Twins have speed guys plus guys like Morneau and Mauer who can put up good numbers in any park. Let it play big, I think this group of players could do well here.
  4. Jim H
    Jack, Spring training is the time to sit out with minor injuries. You don't want to play through them and turn them into major injuries. I don't really mind your continual doom and gloom/Gardy can't do anything right shik, but you could temper in a little common sense.
  5. Jim H
    Actually, Mike you are right to a degree. The Twins had a whole group of prospects who could be helping right now,but did not work out. Kelly and Thompson were high draft choice middle infielders who could never stay healthy. Sanchez was a potential power hitter draft choice who plainly didn't do a thing. A whole bunch of highly drafted pitchers either haven't worked out or are delayed by injuries or just aren't as good as hoped. Nevertheless, Seth is largely right, there is now talent in the upper minors and some will likely help soon. I think Henricks will be better than many think and there are perhaps 3 other starters who could help inside 2 years. Comparing the Twins talent to teams that have spent 10 or more consective years drafting in the top 5 of every draft is a fool's game. When those same teams turn around and trade their major league impact players for more minor leaguers, well they should have a strong minor league system. If Tampa and KC continue to have strong minor league systems AND a contending major league team im 5 years, I will be more impressed.
  6. Jim H
    If you are going with a 3rd catcher, and I doubt if that it is decided yet, why wouldn't you go with Butera? The 3rd catcher is unlikely to get 10 AB's a month. If something happens to Mauer or Doumit, than bring up Towles from Rochester, where he has been getting consistent AB's and might be ready to contribute a little offensively. I doubt if Hughes is any kind of lock. It might come down to whether you want a left hand hitter on the bench or a right hand hitter. The only thing Hughes can do that Burroughs cannot is play 2nd. At least Burroughs has shown in the past he can hit major league pitching. Do you really think Alex Burnett is guaranteed a spot in the bullpen? He may have a leg up, but I believe he has an option left, so there could easily be reasons to start him at AAA.
  7. Jim H
    A number of bloggers and commenters have suggested Hughes is a near lock to make the Twins. I have wondered about that, and maybe Ryan is saying that Hughes is not. He has appeared to me to be more of a backup than any kind of future regular. He is not that gifted defensively. I guess that he needs to be a better fit than his competition to make the Twins this spring, despite the lack of options.
  8. Jim H
    I agree about Benson, he looked the same last September. It surprises me a bit since he generally hit better than Parmelee as they moved up the minors together. Parmelee looks more together at the plate than Benson. I suppose Benson is working on things in batting practice and maybe taking too many thoughts up to his AB's.
  9. Jim H
    I like the idea of 3 lefties in the bullpen. It also might be nice that all three are potentially able to be used as more than a loogy, even multiple innings. Obviously Maloney has not made the team yet, but a good first impression, I guess. I still think Burnett may begin the year in AAA, just to gain more experience in back of the bullpen roles and maybe to enhance his confidence. I hope Oliveras has a good spring, he might have the most potential as a set up/ 8th inning guy.
  10. Jim H
    I have always felt that the easiness of playing 1B is often overstated. You don't need a good arm and can get by with less range, which is why big, slow guys get stationed there. Still you handle more plays than any other position facing the batter and you get throws coming at you from every angle at often great speeds. To play 1B well, you need soft hands, good agility, and good footwork. Most infielders and most catchers usually adjust to 1B quite well, but many outfielders don't. I am a little surprised Doumit is uncomfortable there, but I don't see that it matters that much since there plenty of guys to back up Morneau.
  11. Jim H
    Mincher was a part of the home run hitting teams of the mid 60's. He was also blocked a bit at 1B. First by Vic Power and then eventually by Killebrew. During Mincher's time with the Twins, Killebrew played LF, 3B and 1B. When Oliva joined the team in 63, Allison was the regular LF so Killebrew played either 1B or 3B. Rollins was a right handed hitting 3B and Mincher hit left. I don't remember that it was a strict platoon, but Killebrew did go back and forth between 1B and 3B till Mincher was traded. Killebrew was pretty much the 1B after that.
  12. Jim H
    "I sure hope J.R. Towles beats out Drew Butera for the 3rdcatching spot on the 25-man roster." You know, Fanatic Jack, I disagree with you. I think the 3rd catcher will get like 1 start a week, if that. Let Towles play at AAA. If the Twins need a 1st or 2nd catcher later in the season, bring up Towles who has been getting consistent AB's to play regularly.
  13. Jim H
    I don't know if Ortiz was in Kelly's doghouse or not. I certainly haven't watched Ortiz that much since he went to Boston, but it doesn't seem like he tries to pull that much. He is strong enough to hit the ball out of just about any part of the park.
  14. Jim H
    I remember Kelly saying something like that back when he was managing (probably on his pregame show). Ortiz had just had a game where he had hit a couple of home runs that he had pulled. Kelly said that he hoped that Ortiz didn't get pull happy. He(Kelly) said that Ortiz was so strong he didn't have to pull the ball to hit home runs and that he was a much better hitter if he didn't try to pull everything.
  15. Jim H
    I don't see Souhan's take very likely. Revere is likely the everyday LF. Plouffe could move Willingham to DH, assuming Morneau can play first everday. It also looks like Doumit could get time in RF. I don't see any straight platoons. I do see Plouffe getting some time in both right and left field. Revere will likely be the CF backup unless Mastrionni somehow makes the team. Willingham will likely see time at RF, 1B and DH. Doumit at RF, C and DH. Morneau !B and DH. Mauer C, !B and DH. I just don't think they will platoon Revere. It would be more likely to move him to AAA for awhile if the Twins don't want to play him everyday in the majors. While Souham might be right that the some in the Twins organization that feel Revere is a likely 4th OF, I doubt if Ryan or Gardenhire are ready to do that to someone as young as Revere.
  16. Jim H
    Nick, In fairness to Roger, the day he wrote the response you quote, it wasn't all about you. You, John, and Parker all wrote about Zumaya, and all of you took shots at the Twins front office. A good portion of your readers did the same. The tone was mostly negative. Now, all of you write well and are generally fun to read. I know you view yourself as realist but occasionally you do come accross a bit more negative than you realize. I thought your response to Roger was a bit over the top, but I do see where you are coming from. You and the others put a lot of good content out, for free. I do appreciate that. I often enjoy the comment sections of these blogs. Occasionally, though some commenters are rather rude and intolerant of differing opinions. Some need to understand that stats are used to bolster an opinion and that numbers aren't necessarily facts. Often, there is no right or wrong in these discussions, just differing opinions. I do hope this becomes a good site. These combined sites are nice for many of us, making it easier to find good Twins content. Keep up the good work.
  17. Jim H
    "Normally I would agree that having 21 average to below average players to fill 3 spots seems like an effective way to build a bullpen until you actually realize that this article brought up a couple of times where its succeeded and neglected to mention the dozens upon dozens of times it doesn't work out" Actually the Twins have used this method for more than 20 years to fill out their bullpen. Throughout the 90's one of the strengths of of those generally weak teams was a strong bullpen. Nearly every year the same method to fill out the bullpen was used. Ryan is not doing something that has failed in the past for him, he is using a many times used method, that has worked far more often than it has failed.
  18. Jim H
    "Even if you buy the whole "rebuilding, let's raise some players internally" angle, there's no point not to grab a bargain to help avoid an embarrassing season, " Jeffk, I believe Seth's point is that is what Ryan did, he picked up up a bunch of potential bargains and is hoping/expecting that one or more will come through to fortify the bullpen. The so called bargains available for "peanuts" were almost universally old, coming off of a down year or years, with declining secondary numbers. Some of those savvy old vets will likely have good years this coming year. But there is no way to predict which ones, and realistically, there is about as good a chance one of the younger guys Ryan picked up will bounce back to be just as effective. There is also a reasonable chance that one or more of the young guys from the Twins system will be ready at some point this year. There also is no particular reason to believe that any of the "bargain" vets wanted to sign with the Twins or would of been willing to sign for bargain prices. I don't buy the contention that the Twins can't contend this year, and I expect a quite a bit of change during the season in the bullpen. But, I don't expect the bullpen to be the reason the Twins don't contend this year, if that is what happens.
  19. Jim H
    "And OPS difference of .100 over 100 plate appearances might be meaningful this year" Shane, I suppose anything is possible, but if the 3rd catcher only gets 100 plate appearances this year, I doubt the extra 100 points of OPS has much impact. What 100 plate appearances works out to is less than 4 appearances a week. It means your more productive catcher(if he really is that much more productive) provides you a little over one extra hit or walk a month. This is the reason the Twins are more concerned about defense at the back up catcher position than offense.
  20. Jim H
    I don't things are quite as set as Seth makes it sound. Players seldom win jobs in spring training but it is possible to lose one. I think a lot depends on Morneau. If he can play in field all the time, part of the time or not at all. Who makes the team could well be influenced by that. Some depends on Mauer. If he is healthy, the Twins might decide a 3rd catcher is unnecessary. Another factor is Plouffe. Everyone assumes he will be fine in the outfield, which is likely. But he also has to show he can hit. If he can, he could take some AB's in RF with Willingham getting some at DH. Again Morneau is a factor there. The Twins might not want to risk losing Plouffe, but if he isn't an outfielder and doesn't hit this spring, who would want him? I don't think anything is set in stone. Although Seth probably has it about right, there are reasons to have slightly different bench players.
  21. Jim H
    Most baseball fans who are more than casual fans, appreciate stats. I certainly do. But that doesn't mean that stats can't be interpreted in different ways or even shaped to fit your point. Using a single stat to "prove" something is almost always misleading. I really like stats like WHIP and OPS but like all rate stats they hardly tell you the whole story. Some of the newer "stats" like UZR are dangerous in the hands of people who don't really understand stats to begin with. Sometime I will would like to write about UZR, since I am not really sure it measures anything tangible about fielding. Still stats like WAR are worse, because nobody knows what they contain, and yet they are a single number that people use to compare the value of different players. Imagine a single number that can tell you to the relative value of a center fielder with 600 ABs and long reliever with 60 innings.
  22. Jim H
    "Is the new Twins Daily going to be another site where everyone 'bad mouths' everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does? Your site has only been around for a couple days and I for one am already tired of all the bitching!" Actually Roger, NicK and John have been doing quite a bit of bitching all winter. It is fine to have an opinion. It is even fine to go back and rehash the results when the move you didn't like, didn't work. But lets at least let things play out for awhile. I agree with Seth and others, there is a good chance this method will turn up a good bullpen. The guys Nick and John wanted may work out fine, but there is a pretty good chance that they won't be that good, and little chance they will be dominant. Personally I want to see how some of Ryan's pickups do. It is almost a certainty that the bullpen that starts the year won't be the one that finishes it. So lets all have a little patience, put away the offseason blueprints, and enjoy watching the Twins play.
  23. Jim H
    Thrylos, I don't think I agree with your "locks". I doubt if Hughes is a lock, even assuming good health for him and everyone else. Even if Morneau is healthy, they might want to limit his time at first base, which would open the door for someone other than Hughes. While Nishioka is not a lock, he is more likely than Hughes and could end up as a starter or co-starter at SS or 2b. I do not consider Plouffe a lock either. The Twins probably don't want to lose him, but he will have to prove he can play the outfield, and show some indication he will hit better than last year. If he doesn't, the Twins might risk losing him in order get him some seasoning as an outfielder at AAA. Zumaya is definitely not a lock, he has to be healthy, regain his velocity, and show at least a little control. I don't really have much of an opinion on who the Twins will actually take to begin the season. I kind of think they might put Burnett at AAA to give him some confidence and a regular role at the end of games. I think Burroughs could be a good fit, but at this point I wouldn't be to sure he won't start at AAA. I kind of like Mastroianni's chance too, but they would be better if the Twins went with a 11 man pitching staff to start the season.
  24. Jim H
    Several things one could gather from Seth's data for 15 drafts by the Twins. While nearly all 1st round draft picks made the majors, less than half had significant big league careers. Less than 40% of the players taken in the first 10 rounds ever played in the majors. Over the 15 years listed here, only about a dozen, drafted and signed after the 10th round had significant big league careers.(that is a judgement call). I don't know how important these "facts" are or how they compare to other teams. It does point out how difficult it is to get to the majors and carve out a career there.
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