bdhenders

After reading that other article about his pitch mix, heavy slider to righties, and change up to lefties, I hereby dub Him: Super-ROMO.

Great Article! I have one word for the trade: Shocked! Now that I have done a little research past the ERA and K/9, the initial, “but I love Graterol” is starting to where off. I’ll have to trust Falvine, which I am now happy to do since they have pulled off 2 maneuvers I never saw out of the old regime and it looks like the Twins are solid Favorites to win the division. I really wanted a trade for a #1 starter, but if you look at Maeda vs Price’s numbers, the 3 mil/year vs 20 mil/year is a bargain. Also, note the list excerpted from FanGraphs top 125 pitchers for 2020: 31. Berrios 34. Z Wheeler 35. Odorizzi 36. K Hendricks 37 Bumgarner 38 K. Maeda 3 Twins pitchers in amongst the free agents we were coveting, so decent rotation

I agree with ashbury. I was looking at the defensive metrics of Buxton and Kepler and they are impressive. He definitely shouldn’t be negative. In particular, I like the inside edge fielding given by fan graphs, where Kepler caught 67% of the “even” balls (should be caught 40-60% of time) at both positions. For crazy numbers, go look at what Buxton has there. For example, he catches 20% of the Remote (1-10%) balls and 68% of the Unlikely (10-40%) balls. A healthy Buxton goes a long way to improving the pitching staff.

Thanks for the update, Seth. We'll be arriving in Florida today and we're hoping to see some of the minor leaguers practice or play games. Has anyone been able to find the minor league schedule for games? Seth, you said they start next week. Do you mean Monday? It seems last time I was there schedules came out online much earlier.

Hicks is very underrated and the last two years, he's had a better OBP than the beloved Brian Dozier who was batting second all year (big mistake down the stretch, I think, but that's another story). This, along with the high BABIP of Murphy inflating his average, makes me think that Terry Ryan only looks at batting average, not the other stats many organizations have deemed more important. I know this can't really be true, but all his moves make it look like he doesn't care about any secondary statistics, or he trusts the BA over the rest and talks himself into moves that way while every other GM thinks they're getting away with a steal. I hate to see Hicks go, but the Twins have plenty of options in the OF, so I'll wait and see if Murphy can be an everyday catcher before condemning the trade. Let's just hope we don't get rid of anymore good defensive outfielders. That's two in a row and the OF defense was a big reason the pitching staff looked better this year and we got over .500 on the record.

I was just updating myself on the minor league stats and found one player that is troubling to me. Kohl Stewart, the highly touted high school pitcher and 4th overall pick who did great last year with a K/9 above 10, is only striking out about 7 batters per 9 this year. It is a relatively small sample size with only 9 games, but he also has only about a 2/1 strikeout to walk ratio, which is low. I'm probably just overreacting, but I was wondering what others thoughts were. Also, if anyone out there in Cedar Rapids could comment on what they've seen of Stewart this year, that would be great. I'm thinking of traveling down to see the Kernels this year from Minneapolis, so any tips along those lines would also be welcome.

What is the one unsung prospect that has the best chance to show up on the Twins for at least a cup of coffee this year? Maybe by unsung, let's say outside most people's top 10 rankings.

Are you upset that the Twins didn't go after Emilio Bonifacio? I think he was a perfect fit for the Twins, who have replacement level players at CF and SS, at least as a utility man, but he probably could have won an opening day job at one of those positions. Is this more of an indication as to where the Twins are in the rebuiliding process, wanting to give time to the younger players with upside instead of trying to win a few more games with an aging player? Of course, the Cubs are in the same boat and they went out and got him. As a fan, I would have liked to see a few more wins and some speedy, slap-hitting, scrappy, "piranhas" style Twins action. Your thoughts would be appreciated. at less than $3 million he looks like a bargain.

Good article.. I'm looking forward to more insights. I have a question for you. In spring training, I hear one of he best things to do is go in before the games begin to see the team practice. Once the games start, is there less of an opportunity to do that, or do they still have early morning practice? I'll be going down in mid-March, so as an alternative, I see there is an "OFF day" scheduled during the week I'll be down there. Does anyone know if there will be practice that day for minor leaguers or is it truly an off day?

In spring training, I hear one of he best things to do is go in before the games begin to see the team practice. Once the games start, is there less of an opportunity to do that, or do they still have early morning practice? I'll be going down in mid-March, so as an alternative, I see there is an "OFF day" scheduled during the week I'll be down there. Does anyone know if there will be practice that day for minor leaguers or is it truly an off day? P.S. I've been watching for the minor league report date, too, but I don't think it's been announced yet. It was around mid-January last year when it came out, so should be any day.

Are there any other options that you haters would suggest? Is there anyone in the minors you can think of? I'm just wondering what TR will do to find "competition for Plouffe", which he has said he wants to have. Will we just end up with Jamey Carroll as the only competition?

Great point! I vote for Inge. We're going to need stellar defense to make these pitchers look average. I don't want to cut into Plouffe's playing time until he proves he can't do it, though. So, Inge as a late inning replacement and 3rd catcher would be better than Butera. TR did say he wants competition for Plouffe, so I could see this happening. I don't think we have any young 3rd baseman in the system that could be brought up. Does anyone have suggestions?

I will still attend some games...A bad day at Target Field, is better than the best day at the office!

You are probably right, but I don't see where Regular Season Wins leads us anywhere in the argument. I wonder if can figure it out with simple probability and some thought exercises. Hopefully my math here is right: Let's say the playoffs are a crapshoot and every team (excluding one wildcard) has a 1 in 8 chance of winning. If an average/crapshoot team makes the playoffs (with a a .125 probabilty of winning) five times, they've got a 50/50 chance of winning at least one World Series. What about if it's not a crapshoot? Say you can create a playoff team with 1 in 5 chances of winning the series: .200 probability. They team would have to have about 59% chance of winning each playoff series to get to 1 in 5 odds overall that year. That's a really good team. If that elite team make the playoffs 3 out of 5 years, they have basically the exact same odds....50/50 chance of winning at least one World Series in the same stretch... Taking the stats a step farther, I recalled this reference from a book I had read and thankfully someone else has put it on the internet. More ammo that in a short series, anything can happen (as John says, the playoffs are a crapshoot). See this link. http://goo.gl/lxSM9. Basically, it says that mathematically, you can't determine the true best team in a 7 game series, even if one team is significantly better. For instance, if one team has a 2/3 probability of winning, then they would need to have best of 23 game series to have the better team come out on top 95% of the time...Click the link for more probability and examples from the book The Drunkards Walk: How randomness rules our lives by Leonard Mlodinow (highly recommended).

Keep in mind that teams need 5 SP, as opposed to only 3 OF. With more pitchers needed on a team, there are a lot more pitchers contracts given out and you are more likely to get a greater than $50M contract just by the sheer volume of contracts. I do, however, agree with your point that SP seems to have a higher value on average. Just look at some of Terry Ryan/Tom Kelly's comments. TK liked to say "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher." In Terry Ryan's interview in the offseason handbook, he said "you can't have enough pitching, ***** ******" Those superlatives I replaced with ***s were added by Terry for emphasis. So he's not shy about that point. I guess that emphatically states that pitching is highly regarded by our GM. That's why it's so frustrating that they didn't have any pitching this year. However, they do have the excuse of counting on some people that were either injured or didn't perform. This year, I hope they have learned from their mistakes. I agree with someone earlier that said that if we trade Span we are giving away an above average OF, so we should get an above average pitcher in return. I hope the Twins stand firm with that. That is probably why we haven't seen a trade, yet. People are probably trying to get him for a 4th or 5th starter. I think it would be a shame if we don't at least get a 3rd or better. ML avg. ERA for starting pitchers was around 4 last year, so I would like to see a lower than 4 FIP for whomever we get.

I'm in. Give Anthony Slama a fair shot and reward him for putting up numbers in AAA.

Me too! Very nice video and a class act. I was there when he hit 2 HRs in one day to pass Harmon Killebrew. It was a special day. He also hit 2 HR's when he surpassed 600 HRs.

Looking at fangraphs for Scott Diamond, I see that you are correct. I was just going off memory and was underestimating Diamond. I thought he was older. This does make me feel a little better about him (and the Twins managment for trading Billy Bullock to keep him...which I didn't like). The point still goes that the best way to get starting pitching without costing you an arm and a leg is to trade Span for AA arms that might become 2/3 starters. I don't think you can get an ace for him, but obviously that would be nice, too. Do you guys have any thoughts on who they could get for Span?

Why is everyone penciling Diamond into next years rotation? He's had 3 good games, but I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch? 3 games is a very small sample size. I hope he keeps it going, since he's the only one giving the Twins a decent chance of winning right now, but I wouldn't count on him being in the rotation next year. He's a late 20's journeyman that hasn't stuck in the majors in his career yet. If you think Greinke can give you 5 good years, it might make sense to sign him, but it's a huge risk and I don't think the Twins will do it. We need to get some good pitching prospects for Denard Span (2 number 2/3 starters) since he's the only tradeable commodity right now. If you want to sign starting pitching, it will cost you, but I do agree with the sentiment that they've got a bigger payroll to work with now, so it might make some sense. The SP has been horrible, and they're going to have to sign someone eventually. It probably won't be until they show that they have a chance at being competitive, though. Just keep winning 4 out of every 5 games and maybe it could happen;-)

I'll take that bet! The Twins will be much better than bottom 3...no lower than 8th from last;-) They were only 2nd worst last year and that horrible mix of injuries and the parade of minor league players playing significant roles that followed is highly unlikely to happen again. I do agree that the media tends to paint the team in a positive light, but the beginning of the year is the time for that optimism. Let us be hopeful until the true reality sets in, wether that be good or bad. At least we can feel good for a while, even if it turns out the team does poorly. We will have enough time to complain about that later on. On the scale, I'm an 8 and trending higher. I agree with a most of the moves they make and I am starting to realize more and more that they have more information than we do about the makeup and work ethic of their players, so we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. A prime example is them not re-signing Liriano to a long-term contract and then him showing up without having done any offseason conditioning last year. This lead to shoulder stiffness and a horrible year. If players show a lack of work ethic, then it makes sense to cut ties with them (or force them to go to winter ball...which has been my argument about Frankie all along!...know your personnel guys). I think he'll have a good year this year because he was forced to do some work. There's probably a lot more of that personality evaluation going on with the players than we will ever know, so I tend to give the front office the benefit of the doubt.