stringer bell

IMHO, Herrmann doesn't need to play every day and shouldn't stand in Pinto's way. Isn't his ceiling utility guy/3rd catcher? I submit that Ryan Doumit is trade bait and if he leaves, someone like Pinto can fill his role (probably the role would be altered a bit). It is probably most important that he develop to be a quality receiver so that he can catch more and have Mauer catch less, it is good for the team.

Two things--if the Twins aren't contenders, Ryan Doumit absolutely should be traded. I like Doumit, but he is a poor defender, has an injury history and should appeal to several other clubs at the deadline, and the Twins should be able to get more for Doumit that he is worth. Secondly, I like the idea of Pinto as the backup/alternate catcher next year. If the improvement shown in his numbers is real, he would seem to have decent power and a decent RH stroke. Mauer could play more first base (especially if Morneau isn't on the team) and Pinto would garner more innings behind the plate. As far as a third catcher, the right handed version of Herrmann is now playing in Rochester. Dan Rohlfing is playing the outfield corners, first base and catching. He hasn't hit for much power in his minor league career, but had a strong spring with the Twins. Having the choice of two versatile third catchers is better than just having one.

The move to third was really bad, but in general that's not as bad a move (with one out) as it might seem. A lot of time you can sucker a SS to make a hurried throw to third and get both runners safe. Segura was moving toward third and got the ball without diving, so Pedro was a dead duck unless there was a bad throw. The next batter (Dozier) walked, so the Twins ended up with Mauer at the plate with a chance to take the lead on a base hit, but Florimon shouldn't have gone. He's still not a complete player by any means, but far better than I was giving him credit for.

If Brian Dozier played second base this year like he played shortstop last year, is there any chance he'd still be on the big league roster? If Chris Parmelee played right field with the proficiency of Ryan Doumit and (so far) Osvaldo Arcia, would he be in Minneapolis or Rochester (NY)? Finally, if Pedro Florimon played shortstop like he did last year and the first couple weeks of this year, would the fans be calling for Escobar, Carroll and Danny Santana? I think the answer to all three questions is that defense has made a difference. Dozier as a shortstop last year demonstrated marginal tools--average range, enough arm--and probably a lack of focus due to his offensive struggles. He was a subpar SS, for sure. This year he has moved to second and has been a very good defender, showing good range, a quick pivot, especially for someone new to the position, and good hands. His defense has kept him in the big leagues and probably kept him in contention to continue to get regular at-bats this year and beyond. Parmelee was thought to be a displaced first baseman, basically waiting for Morneau to get injured or traded. While he isn't blessed with even average speed, Chris has caught everything he could get to, played the corners and the walls well, charged balls well hit in front of him and thrown very well. Because he gets pretty good breaks on balls, I think one could classify his range as "adequate" despite the lack of foot speed. This year, Parm has logged an inning in center field and served as a defensive replacement. Not many would have predicted either of those things going into the season. So, despite a .223 BA and .647 OPS, Chris is still getting playing time in Minnesota, not upstate New York. Florimon's assignment as the regular shortstop was questioned. There was nothing to project him as anywhere near an average hitter and his defense didn't profile as anything special--too many errors, too many routine plays not turned into outs--and Pedro began the season with some sketchy defense. He could have been charged with a half dozen more errors than he received and threw a whole bunch of sinkers to first base, most of them dug out by Morneau. As the weather has warmed, so has Florimon's defense. The throws are 100% improved, he's fielding grounders with confidence and making very few, if any, mental mistakes. Combined with acceptable offensive production, Florimon has, for now at least, cemented his position in the lineup. All three of these guys need to hit to maintain their roles with this club and have a future in the big leagues, but their leashes have gotten longer because they have exceeded expectations in the field. To me, Parmelee is the biggest surprise. He doesn't look like much of an athlete, but he's made the plays. Unfortunately for him, defense at first and outfield corners is not nearly as important as how well you swing the bat. Dozier and Florimon have been a decent middle infield and a real improvement over last year.

If Brian Dozier played second base this year like he played shortstop last year, is there any chance he'd still be on the big league roster? If Chris Parmelee played right field with the proficiency of Ryan Doumit and (so far) Osvaldo Arcia, would he be in Minneapolis or Rochester (NY)? Finally, if Pedro Florimon played shortstop like he did last year and the first couple weeks of this year, would the fans be calling for Escobar, Carroll and Danny Santana? I think the answer to all three questions is that defense has made a difference. Dozier as a shortstop last year demonstrated marginal tools--average range, enough arm--and probably a lack of focus due to his offensive struggles. He was a subpar SS, for sure. This year he has moved to second and has been a very good defender, showing good range, a quick pivot, especially for someone new to the position, and good hands. His defense has kept him in the big leagues and probably kept him in contention to continue to get regular at-bats this year and beyond. Parmelee was thought to be a displaced first baseman, basically waiting for Morneau to get injured or traded. While he isn't blessed with even average speed, Chris has caught everything he could get to, played the corners and the walls well, charged balls well hit in front of him and thrown very well. Because he gets pretty good breaks on balls, I think one could classify his range as "adequate" despite the lack of foot speed. This year, Parm has logged an inning in center field and served as a defensive replacement. Not many would have predicted either of those things going into the season. So, despite a .223 BA and .647 OPS, Chris is still getting playing time in Minnesota, not upstate New York. Florimon's assignment as the regular shortstop was questioned. There was nothing to project him as anywhere near an average hitter and his defense didn't profile as anything special--too many errors, too many routine plays not turned into outs--and Pedro began the season with some sketchy defense. He could have been charged with a half dozen more errors than he received and threw a whole bunch of sinkers to first base, most of them dug out by Morneau. As the weather has warmed, so has Florimon's defense. The throws are 100% improved, he's fielding grounders with confidence and making very few, if any, mental mistakes. Combined with acceptable offensive production, Florimon has, for now at least, cemented his position in the lineup. All three of these guys need to hit to maintain their roles with this club and have a future in the big leagues, but their leashes have gotten longer because they have exceeded expectations in the field. To me, Parmelee is the biggest surprise. He doesn't look like much of an athlete, but he's made the plays. Unfortunately for him, defense at first and outfield corners is not nearly as important as how well you swing the bat. Dozier and Florimon have been a decent middle infield and a real improvement over last year.

Innocent until proven guilty. I know nothing of Lawton's life since he retired form baseball, but I do know that domestic disturbances can bring out the worst in people. While the fact that Lawton was detained without bond makes it sound like there are serious charges against him, let's not convict him until he gets his day in court.

It looks to me like Plouffe is on pretty solid ground. Dozier and Parmelee have work to do and Hicks is a long way from being satisfactory.

I've blogged about the disappointing offense for the 2013 Twins and pointed out three guys who are offensive tail enders. Brian Dozier--limited ceiling middle infielder, Chris Parmelee--right fielder/first baseman who has teased the Twins with good stretches, but has failed once and is failing again to secure a spot from the start of the season and now Aaron Hicks. Aaron Hicks ranks fifteenth of fifteen center fielders in OPS. He started the season as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder and has since been put near the bottom of the order. Hicks started historically bad. He finished April with a .113 batting average and .356 OPS--many pitchers (and Drew Butera) would be ashamed of that stat line. There has been slow improvement. For the month of May, Hicks is hitting .202 and OPSing an even .700, not great but a noticeable improvement from the previous month. Hick had hit five homers, second on the team, and has scored 25 runs and knocked in 17. Hicks was the Twins #1 draft choice in 2008 and he moved slowly through the system, repeating low A ball at Beloit. He has never hit .300 in a full season, has never played an inning in AAA, and the switch hitter's splits have always shown him to be a better right handed hitter. Nevertheless, the Twins saw fit to promote him based on a solid season in New Britain and a very good spring training. Hicks has always shown good selectivity and has shown from the beginning the tools necessary to be a fine defensive center fielder. Several issues have developed around Aaron and the Twins' center field position. First, he currently doesn't have a true backup. Fourth outfielder Darin Mastoianni has been injured basically all season. Another candidate for center, Joe Benson, was claimed on waivers after being demoted and struggling at Rochester. The Twins have no backup CF on the major league roster or the current 40-man roster. Hicks' struggles have prompted calls for him to be sent down to Triple A, also meaning that if he stays in the minors for three weeks, the Twins would get another year of service from Hicks before he could be a free agent. So far, the Twins are saying that he will do his struggling and learning in the majors. Many are calling for Hicks to give up switch hitting and be only a RH hitter. What does the immediate future hold for Aaron Hicks? With no replacement (and no room) on the 40-man roster, it looks like he is safe from demotion at least until Mastoianni can play again. Continued improvement would probably keep him in Minnesota for the rest of the season. More than any player on the 25-man roster, the priority with Hicks is his development. He is considered a Prospect with a capital P and developing his talent is Objective One. I have thought from the beginning that a month in Rochester would be beneficial for Hicks. Failing that, having an alternate who could start once or twice a week against a tough righthander would be helpful. Since that doesn't appear to be an option, I guess that answer is to let him play and learn. I certainly don't think making Hicks a righthanded hitter makes sense. I would predict that Hicks continues to get at-bats and continues to improve modestly. The numbers probably won't be pretty, but a BA over .200 and an OPS in the mid .600s would be a success considering his dreadful start.

I've blogged about the disappointing offense for the 2013 Twins and pointed out three guys who are offensive tail enders. Brian Dozier--limited ceiling middle infielder, Chris Parmelee--right fielder/first baseman who has teased the Twins with good stretches, but has failed once and is failing again to secure a spot from the start of the season and now Aaron Hicks. Aaron Hicks ranks fifteenth of fifteen center fielders in OPS. He started the season as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder and has since been put near the bottom of the order. Hicks started historically bad. He finished April with a .113 batting average and .356 OPS--many pitchers (and Drew Butera) would be ashamed of that stat line. There has been slow improvement. For the month of May, Hicks is hitting .202 and OPSing an even .700, not great but a noticeable improvement from the previous month. Hick had hit five homers, second on the team, and has scored 25 runs and knocked in 17. Hicks was the Twins #1 draft choice in 2008 and he moved slowly through the system, repeating low A ball at Beloit. He has never hit .300 in a full season, has never played an inning in AAA, and the switch hitter's splits have always shown him to be a better right handed hitter. Nevertheless, the Twins saw fit to promote him based on a solid season in New Britain and a very good spring training. Hicks has always shown good selectivity and has shown from the beginning the tools necessary to be a fine defensive center fielder. Several issues have developed around Aaron and the Twins' center field position. First, he currently doesn't have a true backup. Fourth outfielder Darin Mastoianni has been injured basically all season. Another candidate for center, Joe Benson, was claimed on waivers after being demoted and struggling at Rochester. The Twins have no backup CF on the major league roster or the current 40-man roster. Hicks' struggles have prompted calls for him to be sent down to Triple A, also meaning that if he stays in the minors for three weeks, the Twins would get another year of service from Hicks before he could be a free agent. So far, the Twins are saying that he will do his struggling and learning in the majors. Many are calling for Hicks to give up switch hitting and be only a RH hitter. What does the immediate future hold for Aaron Hicks? With no replacement (and no room) on the 40-man roster, it looks like he is safe from demotion at least until Mastoianni can play again. Continued improvement would probably keep him in Minnesota for the rest of the season. More than any player on the 25-man roster, the priority with Hicks is his development. He is considered a Prospect with a capital P and developing his talent is Objective One. I have thought from the beginning that a month in Rochester would be beneficial for Hicks. Failing that, having an alternate who could start once or twice a week against a tough righthander would be helpful. Since that doesn't appear to be an option, I guess that answer is to let him play and learn. I certainly don't think making Hicks a righthanded hitter makes sense. I would predict that Hicks continues to get at-bats and continues to improve modestly. The numbers probably won't be pretty, but a BA over .200 and an OPS in the mid .600s would be a success considering his dreadful start.

I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic. Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason. Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter? Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.

I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic. Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason. Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter? Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.

As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham. The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier. Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley. Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.

As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham. The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier. Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley. Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.

Two months does not a season make--this goes for the disappointments as well as the positive surprises--but I can't help but like what Florimon has done. He looks like a good shortstop and as Nick stated, he's a bottom of the order guy who hits a little bit and can steal an occasional base. I amnot as optimistic for Correia, but I think he'll probably stay in the rotation until at least September and win his 10-12 games. Worley needs to get his confidence back, first and foremost, and if a CG shutout for Rochester help that, great.

After a period of stability, the Twins have made a rash of moves. Many of the moves have been panned by the denizens of Twins Daily for being shortsighted, cheap, stupid or all of the above. Some are calling out the GM for saying the team was trying to compete when, in fact, they are rebuilding and focusing on next year or the year after. News flash! The team isn't going to contend this year. Ryan's "contention" talk was predicated on miraculous performances by pitchers who have been much less than miraculous. The hitters have been, on balance, disappointing and a couple teams in the AL Central are pretty good. No chance in 2013. Certainly, Ryan knew this could happen and the next step for Project 2013 is to prepare a nucleus for next year and 2015 and find out what he needs to acquire to make future teams viable in the division. There are a large number of question marks and several categories of players to be evaluated. Here's my take of the categories and the players in the categories for which Ryan must make decisions: Veterans--Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Perkins and Burton. These are established players with established roles and Ryan must decide whether hold on to them or trade them. Not established non-rookies--Hendriks, Robertson (both demoted early), Plouffe, Florimon, Dozier, and Parmelee. Several position players were new starters this April, none of them had started all year in 2012. This is a group that the Twins have to determine whether they should be starters going forward and if the Twins need to check out the minors of other teams. So far, the results have been mixed, at best. Dozier and Parmelee have been disappointments, Plouffe held his own until his injury and Florimon has exceeded very modest expectations. The two pitchers I mentioned didn't make it through April. Fringe guys--Hernandez, Walters, Deduno, Colabello, and Thielbar--These guys mostly are placeholders who get a chance to stay in the majors. None of them project to be long term Twins or stars, but they will get a chance to keep in the majors if they do their jobs. If any of these guys have to be demoted or ride the bench for a long period, so be it. If any of them can be a productive player in the coming years, it will be a bonus. Rookie Prospects--First of all, these are guys who the Twins are banking on to help them be a good team again. The team will do everything they can to help these guys become producers in the coming years. The players include Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson. The Twins approach seems to be different for each guy--they've stuck with Hicks despite his major struggles, they've sent Arcia down three times and much to many contributors' frustrations they have refused to promote Kyle Gibson despite the worst starting rotation in the major leagues. In discussing transactions, playing time, trades, or demotions, it is important to remember that everybody doesn't get treated the same, nor should they. Goal one is to do what is right to help the prospects succeed. We can argue with the plan, but we, the fan base, must support the idea of developing talented, young, and inexpensive players. For me, I would have sent Hicks down to secure his services for another year and build his confidence at Rochester. Gibson, IMHO, should have been promoted at least a week ago and I basically agree with the treatment of Arcia, although it hasn't been smooth for him. The unproven non-rookies need a longer leash than barely a quarter of the season. Since this is a non-competing year, the Twins need to find out about them. I think somewhere around midseason is a fair evaluation period. Some of the veterans need to be traded, some should stay as veteran preference for the improved teams fueled by a (now) top-notch farm system. The key component for the near future for the Twins is their starting staff. They need to develop/acquire enough talent to compete with the deep rotations in Detroit, Cleveland and several other AL cities. Let's see if Ryan's moves work out, particularly with the starting staff.

After a period of stability, the Twins have made a rash of moves. Many of the moves have been panned by the denizens of Twins Daily for being shortsighted, cheap, stupid or all of the above. Some are calling out the GM for saying the team was trying to compete when, in fact, they are rebuilding and focusing on next year or the year after. News flash! The team isn't going to contend this year. Ryan's "contention" talk was predicated on miraculous performances by pitchers who have been much less than miraculous. The hitters have been, on balance, disappointing and a couple teams in the AL Central are pretty good. No chance in 2013. Certainly, Ryan knew this could happen and the next step for Project 2013 is to prepare a nucleus for next year and 2015 and find out what he needs to acquire to make future teams viable in the division. There are a large number of question marks and several categories of players to be evaluated. Here's my take of the categories and the players in the categories for which Ryan must make decisions: Veterans--Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Perkins and Burton. These are established players with established roles and Ryan must decide whether hold on to them or trade them. Not established non-rookies--Hendriks, Robertson (both demoted early), Plouffe, Florimon, Dozier, and Parmelee. Several position players were new starters this April, none of them had started all year in 2012. This is a group that the Twins have to determine whether they should be starters going forward and if the Twins need to check out the minors of other teams. So far, the results have been mixed, at best. Dozier and Parmelee have been disappointments, Plouffe held his own until his injury and Florimon has exceeded very modest expectations. The two pitchers I mentioned didn't make it through April. Fringe guys--Hernandez, Walters, Deduno, Colabello, and Thielbar--These guys mostly are placeholders who get a chance to stay in the majors. None of them project to be long term Twins or stars, but they will get a chance to keep in the majors if they do their jobs. If any of these guys have to be demoted or ride the bench for a long period, so be it. If any of them can be a productive player in the coming years, it will be a bonus. Rookie Prospects--First of all, these are guys who the Twins are banking on to help them be a good team again. The team will do everything they can to help these guys become producers in the coming years. The players include Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson. The Twins approach seems to be different for each guy--they've stuck with Hicks despite his major struggles, they've sent Arcia down three times and much to many contributors' frustrations they have refused to promote Kyle Gibson despite the worst starting rotation in the major leagues. In discussing transactions, playing time, trades, or demotions, it is important to remember that everybody doesn't get treated the same, nor should they. Goal one is to do what is right to help the prospects succeed. We can argue with the plan, but we, the fan base, must support the idea of developing talented, young, and inexpensive players. For me, I would have sent Hicks down to secure his services for another year and build his confidence at Rochester. Gibson, IMHO, should have been promoted at least a week ago and I basically agree with the treatment of Arcia, although it hasn't been smooth for him. The unproven non-rookies need a longer leash than barely a quarter of the season. Since this is a non-competing year, the Twins need to find out about them. I think somewhere around midseason is a fair evaluation period. Some of the veterans need to be traded, some should stay as veteran preference for the improved teams fueled by a (now) top-notch farm system. The key component for the near future for the Twins is their starting staff. They need to develop/acquire enough talent to compete with the deep rotations in Detroit, Cleveland and several other AL cities. Let's see if Ryan's moves work out, particularly with the starting staff.

Buxton has been terrific, but it is probably the correct move to keep him at Cedar Rapids at least until midseason. How many MiLB teams have won 30 games. I'm guessing there aren't many in affiliated baseball.

Quick comment on ex-Twins: Three OFs off to fast starts--Torii, Cuddy, and Gomez. AJ has been solid, Span and Jones have been pretty good. Ramos and Kubel are on the DL. Delmon Young and Frankie Liriano are close to making their debuts after being disabled. Pitching: Despite no wins, Kevin Slowey has been very good for the Marlins. RA Dickey hasn't had Cy Young form, but I don't think many expected him to do that. Alex Burnett has ended up on the Orioles roster and Luis Ayala was traded, but is still in the majors. Struggling: Philip Humber 0-5 with a near 8 ERA and JJ Hardy under the Mendoza line.

Make it five candidates for the rotation--I forgot De Vries.

The Twins have hit the 20 game milestone and are a breakeven 10-10. Considering the pessimism going into the season, we Twins fans should be happy with the results. Some raw numbers: Run differential is -6. Team ERA is 3.92, the Twins have scored 83 runs despite only 13 homers and a league-worst slugging percentage. They are 5-2 in one-run games and have allowed only 11 homers, second best in the AL. Many of these stats can't be sustained--they will allow more homers and win fewer close games--but the team is improved. The team hasn't gotten much from several players--Aaron Hicks is off to a historically bad start to a career. Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, and Parmelee (normal 4-7 hitters) have combined for 4 homers and 24 RBI in 294 plate appearances and Worley and Pelfrey have been much more bad than good in their starting turns. Escobar and Correia have far exceeded expectations, but they are really the only ones who are performing better than one might expect. The defense has been inconsistent, highlighted by SS Pedro Florimon. However, there have been many highlight defensive plays as well. Two players in new positions--Parmelee and Dozier--have seemed to be good fits to their new spots. I think the club is still a ways away from truly contending. The top end of the rotation is suspect, the hitting is inconsistent, and they have put pressure on a pretty good bullpen. The upcoming road trip will probably tell a lot about the present for the Twins. In looking at minor league performance and players returning from injury, it appears that the back end of the rotation has many candidates for few spots. Current #4 starter, Pelfrey hasn't had a quality start and has had two lousy outings and two okay starts, never finishing the sixth inning. Pedro Hernandez, the nominal #5, pitched only 5 innings today, but was effective. There are no less than four candidates--Gibson, Hendriks, Walters, Deduno,--for starting spots and at some point Rich Harden could also be considered for a spot. Add in the two off-season trade acquisitions in AA and that is quite a logjam of potential starters. In the bullpen, Tim Wood and Rafael Perez are nearing health with a full bullpen and 40-man roster. Tyler Roberton has also pitched well at Rochester, so there could soon be too many okay options for too few spots there. In the outfield and at first base, the Twins have service time considerations with rookies Hicks and Arcia. When Darin Mastroianni returns from the disabled list, one of those two would figure to be sent down to Rochester. There is a chance that Chris Parmelee could be sent down instead, but I think the Twins have seen enough of Parm raking at Rochester. The outfield/first base decision could be complicated by somebody catching fire at Rochester. Colabello has been outstanding so far and onetime top prospect Joe Benson has put together a few good games. Another week in the minors would delay 21 year old Arcia's free agency for another year. Hicks would need to be sent down for three weeks to delay free agency. As with most roster decisions, it probably doesn't make any sense to decide until you have to, injuries and ineffectiveness usually help to make the decision easier.

The Twins have hit the 20 game milestone and are a breakeven 10-10. Considering the pessimism going into the season, we Twins fans should be happy with the results. Some raw numbers: Run differential is -6. Team ERA is 3.92, the Twins have scored 83 runs despite only 13 homers and a league-worst slugging percentage. They are 5-2 in one-run games and have allowed only 11 homers, second best in the AL. Many of these stats can't be sustained--they will allow more homers and win fewer close games--but the team is improved. The team hasn't gotten much from several players--Aaron Hicks is off to a historically bad start to a career. Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, and Parmelee (normal 4-7 hitters) have combined for 4 homers and 24 RBI in 294 plate appearances and Worley and Pelfrey have been much more bad than good in their starting turns. Escobar and Correia have far exceeded expectations, but they are really the only ones who are performing better than one might expect. The defense has been inconsistent, highlighted by SS Pedro Florimon. However, there have been many highlight defensive plays as well. Two players in new positions--Parmelee and Dozier--have seemed to be good fits to their new spots. I think the club is still a ways away from truly contending. The top end of the rotation is suspect, the hitting is inconsistent, and they have put pressure on a pretty good bullpen. The upcoming road trip will probably tell a lot about the present for the Twins. In looking at minor league performance and players returning from injury, it appears that the back end of the rotation has many candidates for few spots. Current #4 starter, Pelfrey hasn't had a quality start and has had two lousy outings and two okay starts, never finishing the sixth inning. Pedro Hernandez, the nominal #5, pitched only 5 innings today, but was effective. There are no less than four candidates--Gibson, Hendriks, Walters, Deduno,--for starting spots and at some point Rich Harden could also be considered for a spot. Add in the two off-season trade acquisitions in AA and that is quite a logjam of potential starters. In the bullpen, Tim Wood and Rafael Perez are nearing health with a full bullpen and 40-man roster. Tyler Roberton has also pitched well at Rochester, so there could soon be too many okay options for too few spots there. In the outfield and at first base, the Twins have service time considerations with rookies Hicks and Arcia. When Darin Mastroianni returns from the disabled list, one of those two would figure to be sent down to Rochester. There is a chance that Chris Parmelee could be sent down instead, but I think the Twins have seen enough of Parm raking at Rochester. The outfield/first base decision could be complicated by somebody catching fire at Rochester. Colabello has been outstanding so far and onetime top prospect Joe Benson has put together a few good games. Another week in the minors would delay 21 year old Arcia's free agency for another year. Hicks would need to be sent down for three weeks to delay free agency. As with most roster decisions, it probably doesn't make any sense to decide until you have to, injuries and ineffectiveness usually help to make the decision easier.

Rich Becker came up as a switch hitting lefthanded throwing outfielder. He was bad a a righthanded hitter and converted to being lefty-only at some point. I checked Baseball Reference and he quit hitting righthanded in 1996.

Arcia and Colabello for Doumit and Morneau by the end of the season, perhaps. Maybe Willingham will be gone in place of one of the two I listed. I see Colabello getting a chance to DH and play some first base for the Twins sometime this year. It is hard to say if he will be able to hit well in the big leagues, but it is a good story and he is demonstrating enough ability to be considered for a spot.

Since the Twins won last Sunday to go 4-2, they have lost five consecutive games and fallen to the basement of the AL Central. More to the point, they now have one of the worst run differentials in the AL and their offensive, defensive, and pitching stats are among the worst, as well. There haven't been many positive surprises and there have been disappointments throughout the roster. The #1 disappointment has to be Aaron Hicks, hitting a microscopic .057 with an OPS of .155. Vanimal has had three starts--one satisfactory, one substandard and one dreadful. Florimon has hit a little, but has been poor in the field, being charged with three errors and he should have been charged with one or two more, plus Morneau has saved him a couple more throwing errors. Liam Hendriks hasn't gotten over the hump and was demoted, Pelfrey had one poor start and Twins' lefthanded relievers have yielded two grand slams. The weather has been miserable for the Twins, with little hope for great improvement there for the next week or so. I doubt that there will be many sellouts for the rest of the season. It looks to me like a lot of changes are on the horizon. There is a full 40-man roster with several players not on the roster in line to be recalled--Colabello, Walters, Deduno, Perez, and Harden and perhaps an outfielder--while there is a lineup of pitchers to be tried in the rotation. I predict that Wilken Ramirez will be DFAed within a month, probably Pedro Florimon, as well. The starting rotation should remain unsettled with several equivalent hurlers trying to nail down a spot. Continuing losses likely will mean trades of players who are over 30 and have trade value, but probably not until close to the trading deadline. The Twins' two top farm teams have also been effected by weather, and also aren't winning much with exceptions being Colabello and Arcia at Rochester, and not much encouraging pitching at the top levels. The two A-league teams look stacked. There are a lot of prospects and so far a lot of winning has happened in Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. It is still very early, but the signs aren't good. Maybe some wins and warmer weather will make the situation look less dire.